Mid-Year Report: U.S. Wheat Export Sales Pace Remains Strong
By Claire Hutchins, USW Market Analyst Seven months into marketing year 2020/21, USDA currently forecasts total U.S. wheat export sales will reach 26.8 million metric tons (MMT), which, if realized, would be 2% more than 2019/20 and 7% more than the 5-year average. As of Dec. 24, U.S. wheat commercial sales are 9% ahead […]
U.S. Wheat Export Basis to Remain High Until March 2021
By Claire Hutchins, USW Market Analyst Since June, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) has carefully tracked the relationship between limited export elevation capacity and high U.S. wheat export basis values. Significantly greater Chinese demand for U.S. agricultural products has limited export elevation availability, causing an increase in wheat export basis values for October 2020 through February […]
EU Hits HRS Imports with Punitive Tariffs; Durum Trade Remains Open
By Claire Hutchins, USW Market Analyst U.S. hard red spring (HRS) wheat exports are caught in the crosshairs of an ongoing trade dispute between the United States and the European Union (EU), to the detriment of U.S. farmers and EU customers alike. Effective Nov. 10, the European Commission (EC) announced a 25 percent import duty […]
U.S. Wheat Commercial Sales Significantly Ahead of Last Year’s Pace
By Claire Hutchins, USW Market Analyst USDA currently estimates the United States will export 26.5 million metric tons (MMT) of wheat in 2020/21, 1 percent ahead of last year’s pace, if realized. Five months into marketing year (MY) 2020/21, total U.S. wheat commercial sales are 12 percent ahead of last year’s pace at 16.8 MMT […]
World’s Farmers Outgrow Wheat Consumption Again
By Claire Hutchins, USW Market Analyst USDA pegs 2020/21 world wheat production at a record 773 million metric tons (MMT), up 1% from last year and 3% above the 5-year average of 721 MMT. Total global supplies are forecast to reach a record 1,072 MMT, 2% more than last year. USDA projects significantly higher production […]
U.S. Wheat Export Prices Firm on Higher Futures Prices and Export Basis Values
By Claire Hutchins, U.S. Wheat Associates Market Analyst It is no secret that wheat futures prices have reached unexpected heights recently. Higher futures prices usually pressure export basis values when farmers sell wheat “into the rally” because that increases exportable U.S. wheat supplies. However, we are seeing a completely different phenomenon in the recent market. […]
2020 Hard Red Winter Crop Provides Exceptional Range of Quality and Value
Variable growing conditions greatly influenced the 2020 U.S. hard red winter (HRW) wheat crop. In areas with favorable growing conditions, record yields resulted in lower protein but excellent test weights and kernel characteristics, while regional swings in temperature and moisture led to lower yields with higher protein. The result is a crop that has generally […]
Latest USDA Report Adjusts Earlier U.S. Wheat Production Estimates
By Claire Hutchins, U.S. Wheat Associates Market Analyst On Sept. 30, USDA released its latest Small Grains Summary in which its estimate of 2020 U.S wheat production fell to 49.7 million metric tons (MMT). That is down 5 percent from last year and 8 percent below the 5-year average due to reduced yields and lower […]
2020 Global Wheat Harvest Update
By Claire Hutchins, U.S. Wheat Associates Market Analyst As the 2020 wheat harvest nears its end in the Northern Hemisphere, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) surveyed industry sources to assess the global harvest situation. United States. The 2020 U.S. hard red winter (HRW) and soft red winter (SRW) harvests are officially complete and preparations for the […]
Secondary Rail Rates, Tight Elevation Capacity Continue to Support Wheat Export Prices
By Claire Hutchins, U.S. Wheat Associates Market Analyst Gulf and Pacific Northwest (PNW) hard red spring (HRS) and hard red winter (HRW) basis values have jumped significantly in the last month due to increased domestic secondary rail rates and limited export elevation capacity, both driven by stronger-than-expected U.S. agricultural export sales to China. It is […]