Digging Deeper: How Global Supplies Will Tighten in 2017/18
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst While markets focused on USDA’s latest global supply and demand values, a deeper look provides perspective for wheat buyers. Breaking the supply values down into three categories — importer, exporter and China — shows some interesting trends. USDA expects world wheat supply in 2017/18 to fall 2 million metric […]
Importer Ending Stocks Shrink to 6-Year Low
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst On April 11, USDA released its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. With six weeks left in marketing year 2016/17, USDA expects wheat world ending stocks to reach a record high 252 million metric tons (MMT), up 4 percent year over year and 22 percent ahead […]
U.S. Wheat Planted Area Falls to Record Low
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst Over the past decade, U.S. wheat planted area peaked in 2008/09 at 63.2 million acres (25.6 million hectares). Since then, U.S. wheat planted area has fallen 27 percent to a projected 46.1 million acres (18.7 million hectares) in 2017/18 according to the March 31 USDA Prospective Plantings report. If […]
Global Durum Production Expected to Fall in 2017/18
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst Global durum prices remain under pressure from a large 2016/17 crop. Per International Grains Council (IGC) data, global durum production increased 3 percent year over year to 40.2 million metric tons (MMT), 9 percent above the 5-year average and the largest since 2009/10. As reported in the USW Price […]
USDA Expects U.S. Wheat Production to Fall 20 Percent Year-Over-Year
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst The USDA held its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum Feb. 23 to 24 where the 2017 Grain and Oilseeds outlook was presented. USDA currently estimates 2016/17 (June to May) wheat acreage at 46.0 million acres (18.6 million hectares), a nine percent decrease from last year. USDA reported that winter wheat plantings are […]
HRW Rallies Supported by Supply and Demand Factors
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst Since Jan. 1, the nearby wheat futures contract for hard red winter (HRW) on the Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) rallied 13 percent or 54 cents per bushel ($20 per metric ton) returning to price levels like those seen in June 2016. The rally is drawing support from […]
International Grains Council Sees a Smaller 2017/18 Wheat Harvest
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst USDA will issue its first 2017/18 world wheat supply and demand estimates in May, but on Jan. 19 the International Grains Council (IGC) provided an early look ahead at the next marketing year. IGC pegged 2017/18 world wheat production at 735 million metric tons (MMT), down 2 percent from […]
World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation and Outlook
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst The USDA pegged 2016/17 world wheat production at 753 MMT (27.6 billion bushels), up 2 percent from 735 MMT (27.0 billion bushels) in 2015/16 and 6 percent above the 5-year average. If realized, it would be the fourth consecutive year of record wheat world production. USDA projects production will […]