Lower U.S. Wheat Futures: An Anomaly and Excellent Opportunity
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst There is an old saying: “When there’s blood on the streets, buy property.” Given recent price movements, that could easily be changed to: “When trade policies are in the news, buy wheat.” Since the steel and aluminum tariffs went into full effect for major U.S. wheat customers, […]
Under Priced, Lesser Quality Flour a Source of Problems for Haiti’s Milling Industry
By Elizabeth Westendorf, USW Assistant Director of Policy Dumping in international trade is the export by a country or company of a product at a price that is lower in the foreign market than the price charged in the domestic market. U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) for many years has raised concerns about the Turkish […]
USDA Decreases World Wheat Production on Dry Conditions
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst USDA raised 2018/19 U.S. wheat production to 51.2 million metric tons (MMT), up 8 percent from 2017/18, if realized. Along with the increase, USDA also released its first U.S. by-class forecast for U.S. wheat. Increases in hard red spring (HRS), soft red winter (SRW) and soft white (SW) wheat […]
Strong Demand Pushes Global Wheat Prices Higher
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst With the world consuming more wheat than it produces for the first year since 2012/13, prices are also on the rise. According to Global Trade Atlas data, the average global wheat price increased 4 percent year over year to $203 per metric ton (MT) in 2017/18 (June 1 to […]
USDA Report Shows U.S. Wheat Farmers Have What the World Needs
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst In its June World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) noted that global wheat consumption is expected to exceed global wheat production for the first time since 2012/13 (June 1 to May 31). USDA estimated 2018/19 global wheat consumption at a record 751 […]
Drought and U.S. Rail Rates Prop Up U.S. Export Prices
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst Since the beginning of the calendar year, export cash prices for hard red winter (HRW) wheat prices have rallied an average 73 cents at the Gulf across all protein levels. However, export cash prices are made up of two components — wheat futures and export basis. Most of the […]
Chinese Wheat Stocks Mask Tight Stocks to Use Ratio
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst On May 10, USDA forecast the 2018/19 global wheat supply to hit a record 1,018 million metric tons (MMT) despite the expectation that global wheat production will fall for the first time in 5 years to 748 MMT. At the same time that global wheat production is expected to […]
Competing for Acres: 2018/19 Global Wheat Production to Fall
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst At first glance, the USDA April 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) held very few surprises for wheat. Most reviewers would consider this a bearish report with another increase in predicted U.S. and global wheat ending stocks. However, a somewhat unnoticed factor was increased global wheat feed […]
Global Perspective on Wheat Trade
By Vince Peterson, USW President U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) President Vince Peterson traveled to Australia last month to speak to an Australian farmer organization about what the future might hold for wheat farmers around the world. His message was far more upbeat than might be expected at a time when U.S. wheat planted area is […]
As Always, Weather Is the Wildcard for U.S. Wheat Planting and Production
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst According to the March 29 USDA Prospective Plantings report, U.S. total spring-planted area will jump to an estimated 14.1 million acres (5.71 million hectares), 12 percent above 2017/18, if realized. The estimate includes 12.1 million acres (4.90 million hectares) of hard red spring (HRS), up 17 percent from 2017, if realized. […]