Weather Continues to Affect Global Wheat Production
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst USDA expects global wheat production to fall to the lowest level in 5 years at 733 million metric tons (MMT), down 3 percent from the record high of 758 MMT in 2017/18. If realized, it would be slightly below the 5-year average. This downturn is, unfortunately, led by […]
Export Policies Shrink Global Wheat Supply, Increase Uncertainty
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst It is no secret that global wheat production will fall this year due to unfavorable weather across the European Union (EU), Black Sea — Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine — and Australia. However, government policies are further constraining the global wheat supply, increasing costs and uncertainty for global wheat buyers. […]
Can U.S. Wheat Exports Reach USDA’s 27.9 MMT Estimate?
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst On Aug. 10, USDA increased its U.S. wheat export forecast to 27.9 million metric tons (MMT), up 14 percent from 2017/18, if realized. With 2018/19 global wheat production falling to 730 MMT, down 4 percent year over year, and supply in exporting countries shrinking to the lowest level in […]
Rain-Challenged 2018 SRW Crop Still Grades Above Average and Offers Performance Value
U.S. farmers growing soft red winter (SRW) wheat, especially in the East Coast states, experienced difficult growing conditions in 2018 with excessive moisture affecting test weight, falling number and DON values. Overall, however, several grade factors in the 2018 SRW crop are better than the 5-year averages, protein is somewhat above average, and DON is […]
Shrinking Global Wheat Production Could Be Bullish for Farmers
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst USDA updated its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on August 10 and expects the global wheat supply and demand situation to be more favorable for U.S. farmers this year due to shrinking global wheat production. USDA lowered its global wheat production estimate by 6.63 million metric […]
Ahead of USDA Report, Wheat Futures on a Powder Keg
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst Wheat prices are in for a wild ride. Just last week, all it took to trigger a limit up move in futures prices was a rumor that Ukraine might restrict milling wheat exports. Although the market took back most of those gains after the rumor was retracted, Chicago soft […]
Annual Spring Wheat Tour Sees Improvement from 2017 Drought Impact
By Amanda J. Spoo, USW Assistant Director of Communications This week, the Wheat Quality Council hosted its annual hard red spring (HRS) and durum crop tour. Participants spent three days mainly in North Dakota surveying this year’s crop and estimating yield. The tour, which surveyed a total of 342 fields, estimated weighted average HRS yield […]
Lower U.S. Wheat Futures: An Anomaly and Excellent Opportunity
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst There is an old saying: “When there’s blood on the streets, buy property.” Given recent price movements, that could easily be changed to: “When trade policies are in the news, buy wheat.” Since the steel and aluminum tariffs went into full effect for major U.S. wheat customers, […]
USDA Decreases World Wheat Production on Dry Conditions
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst USDA raised 2018/19 U.S. wheat production to 51.2 million metric tons (MMT), up 8 percent from 2017/18, if realized. Along with the increase, USDA also released its first U.S. by-class forecast for U.S. wheat. Increases in hard red spring (HRS), soft red winter (SRW) and soft white (SW) wheat […]
Strong Demand Pushes Global Wheat Prices Higher
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst With the world consuming more wheat than it produces for the first year since 2012/13, prices are also on the rise. According to Global Trade Atlas data, the average global wheat price increased 4 percent year over year to $203 per metric ton (MT) in 2017/18 (June 1 to […]