World Wheat Production to Decline in 2017/18
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst With wheat harvest underway in the Northern Hemisphere and wheat planting underway or complete in the Southern Hemisphere, wheat buyers are beginning to see a downward trend in production numbers. As discussed in the June 15 Wheat Letter, the high quality, high protein wheat supply is shrinking and supporting […]
Premiums for Protein on the Rise
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst Much needed rain across the U.S. Northern Plains this week gave emerging hard red spring (HRS) and durum crops a drink, but the rain was bookended by hot, windy conditions and likely did little to alleviate drought conditions. Total rainfall for the region ran 60 to 75 percent below […]
Variable Conditions Dominate as 2017/18 Harvest Begins
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst Combines are beginning to roll for winter wheat harvest in the United States with highly variable wheat and field conditions. The U.S. National Weather Service reported that in May much of the U.S. Plains region received 1.5 to 3 times more rain than normal. On Tuesday, May 30, USDA […]
Digging Deeper: How Global Supplies Will Tighten in 2017/18
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst While markets focused on USDA’s latest global supply and demand values, a deeper look provides perspective for wheat buyers. Breaking the supply values down into three categories — importer, exporter and China — shows some interesting trends. USDA expects world wheat supply in 2017/18 to fall 2 million metric […]
Wheat Tour Finds Lower Yield Potential; Snow and Freeze Losses Still Uncertain
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst This week I joined the annual Wheat Quality Council (WQC) “Hard Red Wheat Tour” for an early survey of the new crop. Each year, participants gather in Manhattan, KS, and spend the next two and a half days in small team, randomly stopping at 14, 15 or more fields […]
Importer Ending Stocks Shrink to 6-Year Low
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst On April 11, USDA released its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. With six weeks left in marketing year 2016/17, USDA expects wheat world ending stocks to reach a record high 252 million metric tons (MMT), up 4 percent year over year and 22 percent ahead […]
U.S. Wheat Planted Area Falls to Record Low
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst Over the past decade, U.S. wheat planted area peaked in 2008/09 at 63.2 million acres (25.6 million hectares). Since then, U.S. wheat planted area has fallen 27 percent to a projected 46.1 million acres (18.7 million hectares) in 2017/18 according to the March 31 USDA Prospective Plantings report. If […]
Global Durum Production Expected to Fall in 2017/18
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst Global durum prices remain under pressure from a large 2016/17 crop. Per International Grains Council (IGC) data, global durum production increased 3 percent year over year to 40.2 million metric tons (MMT), 9 percent above the 5-year average and the largest since 2009/10. As reported in the USW Price […]
USDA Expects U.S. Wheat Production to Fall 20 Percent Year-Over-Year
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst The USDA held its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum Feb. 23 to 24 where the 2017 Grain and Oilseeds outlook was presented. USDA currently estimates 2016/17 (June to May) wheat acreage at 46.0 million acres (18.6 million hectares), a nine percent decrease from last year. USDA reported that winter wheat plantings are […]
HRW Rallies Supported by Supply and Demand Factors
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst Since Jan. 1, the nearby wheat futures contract for hard red winter (HRW) on the Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) rallied 13 percent or 54 cents per bushel ($20 per metric ton) returning to price levels like those seen in June 2016. The rally is drawing support from […]