Lower U.S. Wheat Futures: An Anomaly and Excellent Opportunity
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst There is an old saying: “When there’s blood on the streets, buy property.” Given recent price movements, that could easily be changed to: “When trade policies are in the news, buy wheat.” Since the steel and aluminum tariffs went into full effect for major U.S. wheat customers, […]
USDA Decreases World Wheat Production on Dry Conditions
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst USDA raised 2018/19 U.S. wheat production to 51.2 million metric tons (MMT), up 8 percent from 2017/18, if realized. Along with the increase, USDA also released its first U.S. by-class forecast for U.S. wheat. Increases in hard red spring (HRS), soft red winter (SRW) and soft white (SW) wheat […]
Strong Demand Pushes Global Wheat Prices Higher
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst With the world consuming more wheat than it produces for the first year since 2012/13, prices are also on the rise. According to Global Trade Atlas data, the average global wheat price increased 4 percent year over year to $203 per metric ton (MT) in 2017/18 (June 1 to […]
USDA Report Shows U.S. Wheat Farmers Have What the World Needs
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst In its June World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) noted that global wheat consumption is expected to exceed global wheat production for the first time since 2012/13 (June 1 to May 31). USDA estimated 2018/19 global wheat consumption at a record 751 […]
Drought and U.S. Rail Rates Prop Up U.S. Export Prices
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst Since the beginning of the calendar year, export cash prices for hard red winter (HRW) wheat prices have rallied an average 73 cents at the Gulf across all protein levels. However, export cash prices are made up of two components — wheat futures and export basis. Most of the […]
Even with Lower HRW Outlook, U.S. Wheat Production Called Up for 2018/19
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst With the small, stressed hard red winter (HRW) wheat crop getting the lion’s share of attention, it was an initial surprise to read in USDA’s May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) that U.S. wheat production is expected to increase to 49.6 million metric tons (MMT) in 2018/19. […]
Chinese Wheat Stocks Mask Tight Stocks to Use Ratio
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst On May 10, USDA forecast the 2018/19 global wheat supply to hit a record 1,018 million metric tons (MMT) despite the expectation that global wheat production will fall for the first time in 5 years to 748 MMT. At the same time that global wheat production is expected to […]
Wheat Tour Scouts Expect Sharply Lower 2018/19 Production
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst This week I joined the annual Wheat Quality Council (WQC) Hard Red Wheat (HRW) Tour for an early survey of the new crop. Each year, participants gather in Manhattan, Kan., and spend the next two and a half days in small scout teams, randomly stopping at 14 or more […]
Competing for Acres: 2018/19 Global Wheat Production to Fall
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst At first glance, the USDA April 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) held very few surprises for wheat. Most reviewers would consider this a bearish report with another increase in predicted U.S. and global wheat ending stocks. However, a somewhat unnoticed factor was increased global wheat feed […]
USW Board Team Strengthens Relationships with Customers in China and Taiwan
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst Every year USW sends board teams overseas to give leading U.S. wheat farmers the opportunity to learn from customers about the wheat quality characteristics their markets prioritize, and to strengthen the relationship between wheat farmers and their customers. One of those teams returned from a trip to Asian countries […]
