U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat in Drought Adds Supply Concerns
While the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains the biggest driver of wheat futures prices, U.S. winter wheat in drought conditions across the Plains is becoming an increasingly bullish factor. This latest concern is likely to overshadow USDA’s recent estimate for a slight increase in winter wheat acres with potentially serious implications for supplies heading into summer. On […]
Wheat Facts from USDA’s Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings Reports
The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its latest Grain Stocks report and Prospective Plantings report March 31. The report echoed what many market analysts expected, tighter U.S. wheat stocks and higher planted winter wheat area. One significant exception was a slight decline in spring wheat planted area intentions compared to USDA’s previous prediction […]
U.S. Wheat Highlights from USDA’s First Look at 2022/23
An increase in planted area, production and lower prices are among the U.S. wheat highlights USDA shared Feb. 24, at its 2022 Agricultural Outlook Forum. These U.S. wheat highlights and USDA’s outlook for all U.S. agricultural products represent the first predictions for marketing year 2022/23. The new year for U.S. wheat starts June 1, 2022, […]
Dry Conditions Continue Affecting Global Wheat Production
In a market-moving report in February, USDA cut its 2021/22 global wheat production estimate by more than 2 million metric tons (MMT) from its January estimate. USDA also increased its world wheat consumption estimate. What is behind this change so late in the marketing year? This year, high wheat prices remain a fixture as drought in […]
Northern Crops Institute Webinar: A Look at the World and U.S. Durum Market
The U.S. durum market remains supported by tight supplies, leading to a reduction in consumption that may, or may not, hold until the 2022 harvest. That is an observation by North Dakota Wheat Commission Policy and Marketing Director Jim Peterson in a Feb. 2, 2022, webinar sponsored by the Northern Crops Institute (NCI). Following a […]
What is Driving Wheat Market Volatility?
Since late December, U.S. wheat futures prices moved down through mid-January and have bounced up and down since then. For example, prices surged early the week of January 24 but lost steam by the end of the week. And the March ’22 hard red winter future price lost 4% as of Wednesday’s close. Such wheat […]
USDA Reports Reflect Why U.S. Farmers Seeded More Winter Wheat
Last week, USDA released three reports giving some indication of what may be ahead for the 2022 global wheat market. Those USDA reports were the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the quarterly Grain Stocks report, and the annual Winter Wheat Seedings report. Considering all three reports, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) notes […]
Fundamental Support for Wheat Prices Shared with USW Farmer Directors
By Michael Anderson, USW Market Analyst U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) represents the interests of wheat farmers in export markets. Each time the USW Board of Directors meet, we report on the latest market information that affects the U.S. wheat marketing environment. At their meeting the week of Jan. 10, 2022, our directors will see continued […]
Adjusting to USDA Estimates in a Record-Setting Year
Marketing year 2021/22 (June to May) has been record-setting to date. USDA estimates of global production, trade, and consumption have all outpaced previous years. However, since it’s initial 2021/22 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), USDA has adjusted its forecast down, led by a 17 million metric ton (MMT) reduction in global wheat production […]
Stocks-to-Disappearance Ratio Suggests Continuing Wheat Market Volatility
By Michael Anderson, USW Market Analyst The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), a branch of the United Nations (UN), in a biannual report published this month, said “the ratio of major wheat exporters’ closing stocks to their total disappearance is expected to fall to 12.5 percent.” The report also noted that, if realized, this will […]
