Security, Reliability, and Accuracy: A Look into USDA NASS Reporting
Every year the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Foreign Agricultural Service and other USDA agencies publish hundreds of reports to meet information needs for dozens of agricultural products. For wheat, USDA NASS releases a variety of reports, including:
- Crop Production*
- Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings Report
- Prospective Plantings*
- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
- Crop Progress
- Acreage
- Grain Stocks*
- Small Grains Summary
- Agricultural Prices*
- Crop Values
The reports marked with asterisks offer critical economic indicators. They are market-movers widely used in agribusiness and analyses, including decision-making by buyers and sellers of agricultural commodities. Due to their importance and potential implications, many reports are prepared under special security conditions known as the “Lockup” to protect the sensitivity of the information and the integrity of the agency’s data.
On January 10, I joined several other U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) wheat colleagues from the Arlington, Va., and Portland, Ore., offices, along with USDA staff, students, farmers, reporters, and representatives from other industry groups, to observe the Lockup process firsthand.
The Experience
USDA’s Lockup begins with an initial security screening at the entrance, a standard procedure for U.S. federal buildings. After entry, individuals are required to deposit all electronics, including smart watches and cellphones, into designated lockers. From there the group undergoes an additional security screening before entering the secure floors.
On the locked floors, access to the outside world is restricted; internet and telephone services are disabled, window shades are secured, and wireless transmissions are monitored. Once “locked in,” we learned about the agencies’ data collection methods and commitment to statistical integrity. We also observed USDA economists and commodity analysts discussing and defending their positions.
Upon completion of the Lockup, USW Director of Programs Catherine Miller emphasized the importance of transparency and accuracy for these vital reports. Miller also noted that, as frequent USDA data users, “we gained a closer understanding of this process.” Luke Muller, Assistant Director, West Coast Office, also highlighted NASS’s pride in providing timely and accurate estimates for U.S. commodities. He remarked that “witnessing the inner workings of how the data is produced for us and the rest of the world reinforced the significance of this process.”
The Recent Updates
Among other reports in this month’s Lockup, USDA NASS published the Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings Report with the first detailed look at winter wheat plantings for the 2025 harvest. According to the report, the HRW planted area is at 24.0 million acres, unchanged from the previous year, while SRW acres have increased by 5% to 6.4 million acres. This brings the total U.S. winter wheat acreage to 34.1 million.
Also compiled on the same day, the USDA stocks report, shows total wheat stocks at 42.7 MMT (1.57 billion bushels) as of Dec. 1, 2024, a 10% increase from the previous year. On-farm stocks are at 12.7 MMT (467 million bushels), up 16%, and off-farm stocks are at 29.9 MMT (1.10 billion bushels), up 8%.
This information is crucial for buyers and sellers to plan for the 2025 harvest and begin to make purchasing decisions for the next marketing year.
An Open Door
USW strongly supports the USDA mission and our shared goal of providing accurate, reliable, and timely information to wheat buyers globally. USDA NASS invites everyone to observe how they ensure data security, accuracy, and equal access.
“Attending the lockup was a valuable opportunity to observe the process behind USDA’s publication of data” remarked Erica Oakley, Vice President of Programs. “The data presentations, followed by the dialogue between the USDA chief economist and commodity analysts, left me feeling more informed about their process and how numbers are calculated. I highly encourage others to take advantage of the opportunity if they can.”
For more information, watch this short video, “How NASS’s ‘Lockup’ Protects Agricultural Data for Fair Markets.”
By USW Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford