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Winter Weather and Strong U.S. Grain Demand Add Up to Unusual Port Delays

By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst

The sharp inverse in export basis between March delivery and April delivery for U.S. wheat at both Gulf and Pacific Northwest (PNW) ports indicates that exporters have faced logistical challenges during a brutally cold and snowy winter. It also provides a savings opportunity for those customers who can wait for delivery until April or May.

USDA data shows that in January, U.S. grain export inspections increased 18 percent year over year and are on par with the 5-year average. The bad winter weather began slowing rail and barge arrivals at both Gulf and PNW ports in December. Those delays worsened as January brought frigid temperatures and snow to the U.S. Northern Plains, Midwest and, unusually so, to PNW ports. This year’s snowfall is the largest in Portland, OR, since 1995.

Railcar supply tightened in December and January, as the bad weather slowed train movement across the Northern Plains. In severe cold, railroads must decrease the number of cars pulled by each locomotive for safety reasons. During January, the U.S. rail system round trip rate slowed according to Surface Transportation Board data. In turn, the higher demand for rail freight pushed secondary rail freight rates dramatically higher.

In calendar 2016, barges delivered 43.2 million metric tone (MMT) of grain to U.S. Gulf ports, the largest volume recorded since USDA began tracking in 2003. This year, demand for barge space continued into January rather than tapering off after fall harvest. Year to date in 2017, barges moved 2.81 MMT of grain on the Mississippi River, up 18 percent year over year and 21 percent above the 5-year average.

While U.S. export facilities have some storage on-site, a consistent flow of grain from the interior is needed to keep up with vessel loading. Since 2010, PNW export terminal storage capacity has increased 27 percent to 1.08 MMT, yet PNW export terminals turn their inventory about every 12 days. Gulf export terminals have roughly 2.2 MMT of capacity and on average turn over their inventory about every 10 days.

With the delays in grain delivery, vessels waiting to load have increased significantly. In its Feb. 2 Grain Transportation Report, USDA said 65 vessels were at port in the U.S. Gulf, compared to the 2016 weekly average of 43 vessels. Throughout January, the U.S. Gulf had an average 58 vessels either loading or waiting, up 14 percent from January 2016 and 25 percent above the 5-year average. As of Feb. 2, there were 37 vessels at port in the PNW, up 85 percent from the same time last year.

Looking ahead, exporters believe they can work through the backlog by the end of March barring any additional severe weather events. In January, an average 43 vessels per week loaded in the Gulf, compared to an average 40 vessels per week in 2016. Though PNW vessel loading slowed to an average 10 vessels per week for the first three weeks of 2017, Federal Grain Inspection data showed 31 vessels were loaded between Jan. 26 and Feb. 2.

As exporters continue to load vessels, U.S. wheat customers are likely very aware of demurrage and dispatch clauses in their contracts. All types of export contracts include incentives for exporters to load as quickly as possible to avoid incurring demurrage. U.S. law ensures customers’ contracts will be fulfilled as soon as physically possible because it is in the exporter’s financial interest to do so. According to traders, demurrage on current charters in the PNW and Gulf are averaging $12,000 per vessel per day.

This year’s weather has certainly been worse than normal, but the issues that come with such challenges are well-known. That is partly why U.S. railroads, ports and waterway associations continually invest in infrastructure to improve the flow of grain from U.S. farmers to overseas customers.

Customers who have adequate supplies can save between $6 to $20 per metric ton at current export basis levels depending on the class and port of origin by pushing new wheat business deliveries out to April or May. As always, the U.S. wheat store remains open and transparent. And, as always, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) representatives are available to answer any questions customers may have about U.S. export logistics and how they can continue to get the best value possible from U.S. wheat.

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Mexico Stands as a Leading U.S. Wheat Buyer

By Steve Mercer, USW Vice President of Communications

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) represents the interests of U.S. wheat farmers in international markets. The organization is grateful to all its overseas wheat buyers, flour millers and wheat food processors for their strong preference for U.S. wheat and for their friendship. At a time when new circumstances have generated some uncertainty about trade, USW believes it is important to provide perspective on the long-standing, loyal relationship U.S. wheat farmers have with one of those customers: our neighbor to the south, Mexico.

Simply put, Mexico is one of the largest U.S. wheat buyers in the world, importing just under 3.0 million metric tons (MMT) on average going back many years. Mexico’s U.S. wheat imports typically only fall just short of the volume Japan imports. Not this year, however. In the first 7 months of marketing year 2016/17 through Feb. 2, Mexico’s flour millers have imported 2.4 MMT of U.S. wheat, which is more than any other country. That volume is up 5 percent over last year at the same time.

Breaking down their purchases by class, flour millers in Mexico generate strong demand for U.S. hard red winter (HRW) wheat. In 2015/16, they were the leading HRW importers and are taking advantage of the favorable prices and high quality of the 2016/17 HRW crop. At a current volume of about 1.4 MMT, they have imported 71 percent more HRW this year and again lead buyers of that class. A rising number of industrial bakeries, along with traditional artisanal bakeries, account for about 70 percent of wheat consumption according to CANIMOLT, the association representing Mexican millers. That puts HRW producers in a good position to meet that demand. Being closer to HRW production and having a highly functioning ability to import a large share of HRW directly via rail from the Plains states is an advantage for Mexico’s buyers.

In addition, Mexico is home to Bimbo, the world’s largest baked goods company, and an increasing number of cookie and cracker companies. The low protein content, soft endosperm and weaker gluten of U.S. soft red winter wheat (SRW) is well suited to the production of cookies, crackers and pastries, and serves as an excellent blending wheat. Millers supplying this growing market imported an average of 1.2 MMT of SRW between 2011/12 and 2015/16. With imports from the Gulf of more than 730,000 MT of SRW so far in 2016/17, Mexico is the top buyer of SRW again. USW and state wheat commissions from the PNW are also helping demonstrate how millers and bakers can reduce input costs by blending with U.S. soft white (SW).

As it does with all U.S. wheat importing customers, USW focuses on helping Mexico’s buyers, millers and food processors solve problems or increase their business opportunities with U.S. wheat classes. This effort, supported by wheat farmers and the partnership with USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, has fostered a productive relationship that has endured for decades through many challenges. More than 22 years of duty free access to the Mexican market under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) certainly helped build the relationship.

Yet our customers there have many other sources of milling wheat to which they can turn. In response to rising world grain prices in 2008, Mexico lifted a 67 percent import tariff on wheat from outside the United States and Canada. In 2009/10, France made the first non-NAFTA origin wheat sale to Mexico since the trade agreement was implemented in 1995. Russian and Ukrainian wheat has been imported, too. To date, the tariff has not been reapplied and the Mexican import market is currently tariff-free for wheat from all qualified origins. Just this week, the leaders of Brazil and Argentina, both large grain exporting nations, said they would pursue closer ties with Mexico and other Latin American nations.

Looking ahead, NAFTA will likely be renegotiated. USW and wheat farmers understand that there are a number of elements of the trade agreement that need to be re-examined and modernized. The successful story of how U.S. wheat farmers and their customers in Mexico have worked together in a mutually beneficial way must be shared as part of the effort to update NAFTA. For now, U.S. wheat continues to flow to our customers in Mexico. During upcoming trade negotiations and beyond the eventual outcomes, wheat farmers, through USW, will continue to help and support the buyers from Mexico, as they would help and support their own neighbors.

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New Trade Policies Generate Some Whiplash

As promised, on the first working day of his presidency, Donald J. Trump fulfilled his campaign promise to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and gave notice to Mexico and Canada that the United States intends to renegotiate some parts of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

For decades, U.S. presidents of both parties have been largely consistent in their views on trade agreements. The TPP vision began under President George W. Bush, and was almost fulfilled under President Barack Obama — two presidents who agreed on few other policy areas. They both believed that opening borders to (mostly) free flow of trade in goods and services would benefit its TPP partners in the Asia-Pacific region and, in turn, U.S. industries.

As producers of high quality wheat classes, U.S. wheat farmers are oriented towards international markets. Through decades of experience, the industry also recognizes that free trade agreements like TPP and NAFTA are good for our customers looking to expand their milling and wheat foods enterprises in part with U.S. wheat quality and value. For exporters and importers, these agreements also offer rules to ensure that the resulting “free trade” is also “fair trade” or close to it.

It is clear that the Trump Administration does see some value in the existing trade agreements. Its next action on trade was to request a panel at the World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute settlement body in the U.S. trade enforcement case about excessive Chinese subsidies. This request, made on January 25, starts the official litigation process under WTO rules.

One could be forgiven for experiencing a bit of trade policy “whiplash.” On Day 1, President Trump withdrew from TPP alleging it is not strong enough for American workers; on Day 3 his Administration used WTO rules to act on behalf of American farmers. The new trade enforcement rules under TPP would have been much stronger than WTO rules in most respects. Now that TPP is gone, the United States must work within rather cumbersome WTO rules across most of the Asia-Pacific, at least until new trade deals are negotiated.

The statement directing the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative to withdraw from TPP also directed it “to begin pursuing, wherever possible, bilateral trade negotiations to promote American industry, protect American workers, and raise American wages.” USW continues to support new agreements that expand free, rules-based trade, as TPP would have done, and encourage that agricultural interests be able to continue to provide input into those negotiations.

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International Grains Council Sees a Smaller 2017/18 Wheat Harvest

By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst

USDA will issue its first 2017/18 world wheat supply and demand estimates in May, but on Jan. 19 the International Grains Council (IGC) provided an early look ahead at the next marketing year. IGC pegged 2017/18 world wheat production at 735 million metric tons (MMT), down 2 percent from the estimated 752 MMT produced in 2016/17. If realized, it would still be the third largest wheat crop ever, but would be the first year over year decline in 5 years. For comparison, USDA estimates 2016/17 global wheat production at 753 MMT.

IGC expects just two of the major exporting countries, Russia and Ukraine, to harvest more wheat in 2017/18, even though their estimates are up only 1 percent and 2 percent, respectively. IGC predicts European Union harvested area will remain stable in 2017/18. Harvested area is forecasted to fall 3 percent in Argentina, Australia and Canada, while IGC expects farmers in the United States and Kazakhstan to harvest 8 percent and 10 percent less wheat, respectively.

Harvested area in Morocco is expected to rebound to a more normal level after widespread rain eased drought conditions that cut its 2016/17 harvested area by 26 percent in 2016/17 to just 5.19 million acres (2.1 million hectares). Projected increases in India, North Africa, Turkey, Iran and Egypt will offset the expected decreases in harvested area among the major exporters according to IGC data.

2017/18 carry-in stocks are estimated at a record large 235 MMT, up 6 percent year over year, if realized. However, the larger carry-in stocks are not anticipated to offset the forecasted decrease in production, and total world supply would decline 3 MMT to a projected 970 MMT.

For the first time since 2012/13, IGC expects total consumption to be greater than total production. Total consumption is forecast at 737 MMT, down an estimated 1 MMT from 2016/17. Food use will climb over 500 MMT for the first time ever, partially offsetting an expected decrease in feed and residual use due to smaller production in Canada and the United States.

IGC believes 2016/17 world wheat trade will shrink to 164 MMT, down 4 percent from the prior year, if realized. With consumption outpacing production, IGC expects carryout stocks to decrease marginally year over year to 234 MMT.

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Plant Breeding Innovations to Help Meet Increasing Demand for Safe, Affordable Food

Through advancements in agriculture and the development of new crop varieties, humans have historically strived to meet the needs of a growing population and to develop a safe, reliable and sustainable food supply. How will we continue to meet this challenge, while dealing with a changing climate and threats of new pests and diseases? The American Seed Trade Association (ASTA) affirms that continued innovation is paramount to the future of agriculture and to our shared quality of life. Plant breeders including those who develop new wheat varieties will need access to available tools to responsibly meet these challenges.

The fundamental practices of plant breeders have not changed over time, ASTA notes. Plant breeders still select the best plants for their desired goal, which may be higher yields, disease resistance, improved end use characteristics or better nutrition. However, the tools and information that plant breeders use have evolved, allowing them to take advantage of the growing understanding of plant science and genetics. Today, with the capability to sequence plant genomes and the ability to link a specific gene or genes to a specific characteristic, breeders are able to more precisely make improvements in plant varieties. Breeders can also make specific changes in existing plant genes in ways similar to changes that could occur in nature.

Innovative breeding methods include a variety of tools that mimic processes that have been used in traditional breeding since the early 20th century. ASTA reports that breeders may opt to use the newer methods rather than classical breeding to reach the same endpoint more accurately and efficiently. As with more traditional breeding methods, some of the newer methods focus on using a plant’s own genes, or genes from the plant’s wild relatives, to create a desired characteristic, such as disease resistance or drought tolerance. It is a more precise way of creating genetic variation — a longtime goal of plant breeders. To read more about innovations in wheat breeding, visit https://www.heartlandinnovations.com/about-us/kansas-wheat-innovation-center.

It is important to note that seeds are comprehensively regulated by USDA. A key feature of the plant breeding process is extensive testing and evaluation starting early in the process and continuing until the final product is commercially available. These tests are based on procedures breeders have used for many decades to create new plant varieties that are safe to grow and eat.

The world’s farmers and food manufacturers understand that America’s agriculture producers face the very real challenge of providing for a growing population so future generations have access to the same diverse, nutritious and high quality food we enjoy today. ASTA believes improved breeding methods will help meet these needs more efficiently and economically through agriculture practices that preserve natural resources and biodiversity. These new breeding methods are accessible to both public and commercial plant breeders in developed and developing countries, and they can be used across all agriculturally important crops, including food, feed, fiber and fuel crops.

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Farmer Leaders to Meet with Customers in Thailand and the Philippines

By Amanda J. Spoo, USW Communications Specialist

Every year USW sends teams of U.S. farmers overseas to visit markets they supply with wheat. These regional visits highlight the day-to-day work and marketing strategies of USW’s overseas offices and connect the farmers to their customers and industry stakeholders.

“The feedback we hear consistently from our customers is how much they appreciate getting to know the farmer firsthand,” said USW Vice President of Overseas Operations Vince Peterson. “These team visits give farmers the opportunity to follow their wheat overseas, and as businessmen and women, those personal connections are invaluable.”

USW Communications Specialist Amanda Spoo will lead USW’s 2017 South Asia Board Team to Thailand and the Philippines in February. The team includes Dustin Johnsrud, a wheat farmer from Epping, ND, serving his first four-year term on the North Dakota Wheat Commission; Denise Conover, a wheat farmer from Broadview, MT, and a director on the Montana Wheat and Barley Committee; and Clint Vanneman, a wheat farmer from Ideal, SD, and a current USW director representing the South Dakota Wheat Commission.

The team will first meet at the USW West Coast Office in Portland, OR, for briefings by USW and the Wheat Marketing Center, as well as visits to the Federal Grain Inspection Service and the local United Grain export terminal. During three days in Thailand, the team will visit the United Flour Mills (UFM) Baking and Cooking School as well as tour a flour mill, a bakery and an international food manufacturing plant. The second leg of the trip features two days in the Philippines, which includes tours of a mill and a food manufacturer. The team will also have the opportunity to attend the Filipino-Chinese Bakery Association Inc. (FCBAI) Bakery Fair.

The Thai milling wheat market has grown at a robust 5 percent for the past two years. USDA estimates that milling wheat demand reached 1 MMT for the first time in the 2012/13 marketing year and has increased to 1.24 MMT in 2016/17. Customers there imported about 50 percent of their milling wheat from the United States in 2015/16. In an evolving Thai market, consumer preferences are changing and there is increased demand for baked goods, biscuits and noodles. Over the past four decades, USW has worked closely with the UFM Baking and Cooking School in Bangkok to train and provide technical assistance to South Asian bakers and demonstrate the quality and value of U.S. wheat classes.

The Philippines was the third largest buyer of U.S. wheat in the 2015/16 marketing year with total imports reaching almost 2.2 MMT and was the largest buyer of both soft white (SW) and hard red spring (HRS). In this dynamic market, USW continues to help the milling and baking industry navigate changes by providing technical assistance and marketing training, and investing in activities to increase wheat flour consumption. USW established an office in Manila in 1961, allowing USW to maintain close, long-term relationships with industry leaders in the Philippines.

“Visiting these markets will give the farmers a unique look at the value of using high quality U.S. wheat and why these markets prefer it for their end-products,” said Peterson.

The team will post regular travel updates and photographs, and will report to the USW board. Follow their progress on the USW Facebook page at www.facebook/uswheat and on Twitter at @uswheatassoc.

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New U.S. Food Consumer Research Offers Insight for Wheat Importers and Processors

In 2015, The Center for Food Integrity (CFI) shared the results of ongoing research showing U.S. consumers want more and more information about their food and primarily expect food companies to provide it. Those U.S. consumers surveyed also look to farmers for information about food.

CFI’s research shows being more transparent about food commodities and products builds consumer trust as well as a greater understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing the U.S. food system.

USW is sharing this information because in a broader sense, U.S. research can give the world’s commercial flour millers and wheat food manufacturers information about how consumer attitudes may evolve in their countries.

CFI took its 2016 research to a new level with an innovative methodology called digital ethnography. Charlie Arnot, CFI’s chief executive officer, said in a release that the new research offers much deeper insights into distinct groups whose actions about where they buy food, or how they form opinions about products, processes, people and brands, influence the decisions of others.

This emerging influence is why more U.S. consumers are flocking toward the things about today’s food that they believe is more sophisticated and represents “progressive” production, CFI noted. Arnot said this is seen in increased demand for food that is less processed, with simple labels that describe what is in, and what is not in, the products. USW see a relevant example for the world’s millers and bakers in the sponge and dough bread production method, using only flour, yeast and water, compared to “no-time” bread production that requires more additives and conditioners. Innovations in plant breeding may also be a resource for consumer questions.

“Understanding consumer attitudes toward food and how those attitudes influence the conversation allows food companies to more effectively talk with consumers,” said Leigh Horner, vice president, communications at The Hershey Company. “Consumers want to feel good about the products they buy for themselves and their families and want easy access to balanced, useful information to know they are making the right choices. These insights will help food companies build trust … and engage in meaningful conversations about the food their customers buy.”

The Center for Food Integrity is a not-for-profit organization that helps today’s food system earn consumer trust. Our members and project partners, who represent the diversity of the food system, are committed to providing accurate information and working together to address important issues in food and agriculture. The Center does not lobby or advocate for individual companies or brands. For more information, visit www.foodintegrity.org.

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World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation and Outlook

By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst

The USDA pegged 2016/17 world wheat production at 753 MMT (27.6 billion bushels), up 2 percent from 735 MMT (27.0 billion bushels) in 2015/16 and 6 percent above the 5-year average. If realized, it would be the fourth consecutive year of record wheat world production. USDA projects production will increase in seven of the eight major exporting countries. The only exporter with decreased production is the European Union.

Record-large world carry-in stocks add to the global surplus, resulting in the largest estimated world wheat supply on record. USDA estimates 2016/17 world carry-in stocks at 240 MMT (8.84 billion bushels), up 11 percent from last year and greater than the 5-year average of 197 MMT (7.25 billion bushels). Total world supply will reach a projected 993 MMT (36.5 billion bushels), up 40.4 MMT from the record set in 2015/16. The ample world supply will help meet strong global wheat demand.

USDA expects total consumption will increase for the fourth consecutive year and reach a record 740 MMT (27.2 billion bushels), compared to 712 MMT (26.2 billion bushels) in 2015/16. Feed wheat use is predicted to grow an estimated 6 percent to a record high 147 MMT (5.42 billion bushels) due to increased global supplies of feed wheat after rain increased yield in nearly every producing region (with western Europe a notable exception) but hurt quality.

USDA expects 2016/17 world wheat trade to grow to a record large 178 MMT (6.54 billion bushels). If realized, it would be 11 percent greater than the 5-year average of 160 MMT (5.86 billion bushels).  USDA expects world carry-out stocks to increase 12.8 MMT (470 million bushels) year over year to 253 MMT (9.31 billion bushels), 23 percent greater than the 5-year average of 206 MMT (7.56 billion bushels).

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Outlook for 2017/18 U.S. Winter Wheat Plantings

By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst

U.S. farmers made critical decisions last fall while they had bins full of wheat from record-breaking yields with prices near ten-year lows. Therefore, it is no surprise that many farmers chose to decrease their winter wheat planted area. USDA’s 2017/18 winter wheat seeding report released Jan. 12 reported U.S. farmers planted the second lowest number of winter whea­­t acres on record and 10 percent fewer acres than 2016/17. USDA estimated U.S. farmers planted 32.4 million acres (13.1 million hectares) of winter wheat with reductions for all three classes of winter wheat — HRW, soft red winter (SRW) and white winter wheat.

USDA assessed HRW planted area at 23.3 million acres (9.43 million hectares), down 12 percent from 2016. Planted area in Kansas, the number one U.S. HRW-producing state at 7.40 million acres (3.00 million hectares), is down 13 percent from 2016 and 20 percent below the 5-year average. Nebraska farmers planted a new record low area to winter ­­wheat of just 1.09 million acres (441,000 hectares), 25 percent below the 5-year average.

Total SRW planted area of 5.68 million acres (2.30 million hectares) fell 6 percent from 2016. Increases in Delaware, Georgia, Kentucky, Maryland, North Carolina and South Carolina were not enough to offset decreases in most of the other SRW-producing states, including a 16 percent decline in Ohio, the number one producer of U.S. SRW in 2016/17. USDA believes Ohio farmers planted 490,000 acres (198,000 hectares) of SRW, 15 percent below the 5-year average.

White winter wheat planted area decreased to 3.37 million acres (1.36 million hectares), down 4 percent from 2016/17. Exportable soft white wheat supplies are concentrated in Idaho, Oregon and Washington. Planted area in Idaho and Oregon fell 4 percent and 3 percent, respectively. Idaho farmers planted 730,000 acres (295,000 hectares) compared to 760,000 acres (308,000 hectares) in 2015/16 and 2016/17. Planted area in Oregon dropped 20,000 acres (8,000 hectares) from 2016/17 to 700,000 acres (283,000 hectares), while planted area in Washington remained stable year over year at 1.70 million acres (688,000 hectares).

Durum planting in the Southwestern United States is estimated at 140,000 acres (56,700 hectares), down 8 percent from 2016/17 and 38 percent below 2015/16. According to USDA, planting is well underway in Arizona at 22 percent complete, up 8 percentage points from the same date last year. Delays from wet conditions are slowing progress in California. Arizona and California plant durum from December through January for harvest in May through July.

With the decrease in planted area in the United States, customers should pay close attention to weather maps and consider purchasing farther out to protect themselves from supply shocks.

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Trade Policy and Wheat in the Obama Administration

By Ben Conner, USW Director of Policy

Next week, the United States will hold its quadrennial pageantry to mark the beginning of a new presidential term. Since term limits prevented President Obama from running again, his administration will come to an end.

The wheat industry has not always seen eye to eye on every issue with the Obama Administration, but on trade policy there has been a great deal of common ground. As the Obama years draw to a close, it is worth reflecting on the trade policy accomplishments of this Administration.

The first major trade policy accomplishment of interest to wheat was finishing the agreements with Colombia, Panama and South Korea that were negotiated during the George W. Bush Administration, which were passed by Congress and signed into law in 2011. Tariffs for wheat went to zero as soon as the agreements entered into force. This is especially important as some of U.S. wheat’s major competitors in Australia and Canada were also negotiating FTAs with these countries.

After these agreements were finished, the focus shifted to negotiating the two largest free trade areas in terms of GDP ever attempted — the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). These agreements are full of complexity due to the scope and the number of economies involved. TPP negotiations were completed in 2015 but have not been ratified by Congress. Its future is highly uncertain in the next Administration. TTIP has much further to go, but its delay has much to do with political dynamics in the European Union. Regardless of the ultimate outcome of these agreements, the Obama Administration can rightfully be proud of its ambitious free trade agenda.

One of the most high profile initiatives affecting wheat was the Administration’s reestablishment of diplomatic relations with Cuba and accompanying efforts to reduce the regulatory burdens around trade with that market. Cuba imports no U.S. wheat today, but could be a top 10 market with the end of the trade embargo. Unfortunately, the embargo is still in place and no U.S. wheat has been sold, but these actions to improve relations with Cuba were important first steps.

A major but often overlooked accomplishment is that this Administration finally put the brakes on the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Doha agenda, which had long since stopped being a serious avenue for opening trade. There are some countries that will still insist that Doha needs to continue, but any real prospect of reviving those negotiations ended with the 2015 Nairobi Agreement. Another accomplishment of that agreement was a phased out end to export subsidies — historically a major source of distortion in global wheat trade.

Finally, there are the WTO cases launched against China’s excessive subsidies and its opaque tariff rate quota (TRQ) administration for wheat imports. These are two of the most significant trade cases ever taken on behalf of U.S. farmers (and, of course, Chinese consumers). USW is proud to have played a major role in getting those cases going and congratulates the Administration for filing them. The incoming Administration has pointed to trade agreement enforcement as one of its priorities, so we have every reason to believe these cases will be pressed to their conclusions.

These are the trade policy accomplishments that grab the headlines. There have been dozens of other actions taken on behalf of U.S. wheat farmers that facilitate sales, keep markets open and improve the global trading system. As the Obama Administration leaves and the Trump Administration begins, the wheat industry can be grateful that the exceptionally competent top career staff at the U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Trade Representative will still be in their jobs on Jan. 21, continuing their efforts on behalf of U.S. agriculture.

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