You are here: / / Wheat Letter Blog
thumbnail
,

Global Recognition for U.S. Wheat Baking Industry Expertise

Bakers around the world consider flour produced from U.S. wheat to be consistently high quality and versatile. That reputation is earned largely because wheat farmers grow excellent crops (supported by quality data from USW) the crops are delivered through the most efficient grain handling system in the world, and because USW invests trade service, technical support and more to serve the world’s wheat buyers and wheat food processors.

One of those technical experts is Bakery Consultant Roy Chung who, from a base in Singapore, has represented U.S. wheat for almost 40 years. He has consistently added value to U.S. wheat imports by introducing quality bread processing to the milling and baking industry across South Asia in conjunction with his USW colleagues and training program collaborators.

The association of such expertise and service with U.S. wheat’s reputation overseas is so well regarded that leading French yeast and fermentation products company Lesaffre asked Chung and USW to collaborate on an innovative publication called “Sandwich Bread in Words. A Glossary of Sensory Terms.” Lasaffre describes the booklet, published in January 2017, as a tool “to formalize a common vocabulary about sandwich bread, drawing on different cultures and incorporating a repeatable assessment method … to create a bridge to connect experts with consumers.”

Lasaffre’s baking ingredients and flour produced from HRS and HRW wheat classes are ideally suited for the high quality “sponge and dough” system bread products that Chung describes in the book: “The internal characteristics, like flavor, grain, texture, taste, mouthfeel … will determine if the customer returns for another loaf. The vested interest of the baker is to make the best possible looking and tasting product with the best ingredients available.”

Didier Rosada confirms that consumers around the world are looking for better tasting, more natural bread. He is a globally respected master baker and vice president of operations at Uptown Bakers, where he produces quality baked goods for food service and retail stores in Maryland, Washington, D.C., and Virginia. He is a frequent consultant with USW, particularly in Latin America.

“Baking is changing in a good way,” Rosada said. “At my bakery, my process is as natural as possible, with long fermentation time, like it used to be done, to bring back the flavor profile of a good bread, the keeping qualities and texture, etc. And the classes of wheat that we have in the U.S. are perfect for that. I am using a flour that is almost 100 percent hard red winter or sometimes combined with hard red spring wheat.”

/by
thumbnail
,

Essential Wheat Crop Quality Analysis is Underway

Because no two crops are alike, the world’s flour millers, bakers and wheat food processors must have some assurance that the wheat they buy will meet their needs. That is why U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) and its partner organizations collect and analyze samples of all six classes of U.S. wheat, compile results and share that data around the world every year.

Legacy organizations to USW first identified the need to quickly gather and share new crop data more than 55 years ago. Now, wheat farmer checkoff dollars and Market Access Program (MAP) funding are invested to publish a complete picture of each year’s harvest. This commitment to transparency offers confidence in the data that, together with the trade service and technical support also funded by USDA Foreign Agricultural Service programs, helps differentiate U.S. wheat exportable supplies.

USW works with several wheat quality organizations to collect, grade and analyze thousands of wheat samples from local elevators and sub-lot samples from export elevators. Sampling begins with early winter wheat harvest and continues until the U.S. hard red spring (HRS) and northern durum harvests are complete, usually by early October, although if warm, dry conditions continue, that end may come early this year. The data is compiled by class and by production region with the soft red winter (SRW) class report coming first, followed by other individual class reports and a complete USW Crop Quality Report by late October. All reports are published on www.uswheat.org. The Crop Quality Report is also printed as a booklet in English, Spanish, French, Arabic and Mandarin.

USW then sends teams of its colleagues, farmers and wheat quality experts out to present that year’s data to its buyers. By mid-December, USW has presented the latest characteristics for all six U.S. wheat classes to hundreds of buyers, millers and processors in more than 25 countries. Buying decisions are made because of this effort; some are acted upon quickly. For example, with information they learned at USW’s 2015 Crop Quality Seminar, millers in Portugal imported HRS for the first time in three years.

U.S. wheat crop quality data extend what our farmers produce into competitive business information customers need. Without funding from farmers through their state wheat commissions, the MAP, and the support of federally-funded inspection and quality analysis labs, this essential service to overseas customers would not be possible.

/by
thumbnail
, , ,

USDA: World Wheat Consumption Increases, Spring Wheat in Short Supply

By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst

USDA increased its estimates for world wheat production, consumption and trade in its August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released today. USDA forecast global wheat production at 743 million metric tons (MMT), 3 percent above the 5-year average but still 2 percent below last year’s record. The global wheat consumption estimate increased to 737 MMT in 2017/18, up 4 percent from the 5-year average but down slightly from the 2016/17 record. USDA projects 2017/18 world wheat trade at 180 MMT, down 1 percent from last year but still 10 percent above the 5-year average, which would be the second highest on record. USDA also lowered its U.S. and Canada spring wheat supply estimates.

USDA forecasted U.S. wheat production to fall 25 percent year over year to 47.3 MMT. The drop is due to lower yields for spring wheat and durum as a result of the drought across the U.S. Northern Plains, but does not reflect abandoned acre data. USDA pegged U.S. spring wheat production at 9.91 MMT, down 26 percent from 2016/17 and 30 percent below the 5-year average, if realized.

Total 2017/18 U.S. spring wheat supply, which USDA pegged at 16.3 MMT, is down 22 percent from 2016/17 and results in a U.S. spring wheat stocks-to-use ratio of 24 percent. The ratio was 44 percent in the August 2016 WASDE and 51 percent in the August 2015 report. The current low stocks-to-use ratio seems supportive for U.S. spring wheat prices. Many in the industry believe supply will decrease further when abandoned acres are determined.  The North Dakota Wheat Commission noted in Assessing the Wheat Quality Council Tour 2017 Yield Estimate (below), “…abandoned acres will certainly have a significant impact on final production for both spring and durum, but may not be fully reconciled until USDA releases its final harvested acreage report for the 2017 crops.”

The drought that is impacting the United States is also decreasing yield potential in Canada. USDA now estimates 2017/18 Canadian wheat production will total 26.5 MMT, down 16 percent from the prior year. The United States and Canada normally account for 60 percent of global high protein wheat exports.

Favorable spring wheat growing conditions in Russia and Kazakhstan may partially offset lower North American spring wheat production. Time will tell what quality and quantity of spring wheat is available for export, and at what value. Customers should remain abreast of current crop conditions, harvest conditions and U.S. prices and contact their local USW representative for any questions concerning the 2017/18 U.S. wheat crop.

/by
Harvest Report
, , , ,

Assessing the Wheat Quality Council Tour 2017 Yield Estimate

Reprinted with Permission from “Agweek,” August 2, 2017

[Editor’s Note: The original source for this article is the North Dakota Wheat Commission.]

The annual Wheat Quality Council (WQC) tour of the spring and durum wheat region took place the week of July 24, with the final yield result sparking questions and sharp criticism, especially in social media circles. The North Dakota Wheat Commission (NDWC) would like to acknowledge these concerns from producers, assess the crop tour yield estimate, and clarify some misinformation.

The wheat tour is organized by the WQC, based in Kansas City, not the NDWC. The tours are just a small part of the overall mission of the Council. Its primary focus is being a collaboration point and organization to test and evaluate new wheat varieties for end-use quality, and to ensure U.S. wheat production is meeting the quality needs of the wheat industry. It also serves to expand communication and education between wheat producers, wheat breeders, millers, bakers and other end-users.

The tour calculated an average yield of 38.1 bushels per acre for hard red spring wheat. While this is the lowest yield in about ten years for the tour, it was higher than expected by many producers, considering the severe drought conditions gripping nearly all western North Dakota. The NDWC agrees that this overall yield was higher than we anticipated based on weekly crop ratings and producer reports, and the WQC average yield needs to be looked at in its full context.

Why was the tour estimate higher than expected? Most routes covered central and eastern parts of the state, and higher yielding areas of Minnesota, with a lower than normal percent of field counts in western areas. This was not done intentionally; the tour has never taken routes into the far west portion of the state or into eastern Montana (also in severe drought). In more normal years when crop conditions are more balanced across the region, this has not been as big of an issue. However, in a drought year like this with high abandonment, it led to a lower than normal percent of field counts from western areas. The yield estimates given at the end of each day and at the end of the tour are simple averages. They are not weighted by production and there are no county yield estimates released. For durum, the average yield came in at 39.7 bushels per acre, which is well above the July USDA estimate of 27 bushels per acre for North Dakota. The tour routes did not cover the main durum producing counties in the state, which are facing the most intense drought conditions.

Accounting for abandoned acres is difficult, since yield reports are based on actual acres harvested for grain, not planted acres. It is well known that large portions of the crop are being abandoned due to the drought conditions in western growing regions, including South Dakota and Montana. Participants on the tour noted that on some routes, anywhere from 30 to 50 percent of the fields had been abandoned.

These abandoned acres will certainly have a significant impact on final production for both hard red spring and durum, but may not be fully reconciled until USDA releases its final harvested acreage report for the 2017 crops. Normal abandonment rates in the spring wheat region are 2 to 3 percent. The eastern acres will likely see normal abandonment, but portions of the western drought areas could be as high a 40 percent. In 2002, North Dakota abandoned 13 percent of its wheat plantings, and the rate was 23 percent in the 1988 drought. The question of abandonment is a concern in the market and once fully understood, it will have a big impact on final production; it is something buyers, producers and all involved in the wheat industry will need to focus on.

USDA’s July production report projected an average spring wheat yield of 38 bushels for North Dakota, 61 bushels for Minnesota, 26 for Montana, and 34 for South Dakota. All the USDA data is based directly on producer surveys with no objective yield surveys taken in fields. The upcoming August and September USDA estimates will follow the same pattern for yield, but it is uncertain when major adjustments for abandoned acres will be included. In its July estimate, USDA pegged planted acres of spring wheat in Montana, South Dakota and North Dakota at 8.55 million, and harvested at 8.22 million, reflecting a 4 percent abandonment level. For durum in Montana and North Dakota, it pegged planted acres at 1.75 million, with expected harvested acres at 1.7 million, just 3 percent abandoned. If final harvested area ratios fall to levels seen in 2002 across the region, there is another 1 million acres that need to be taken out from final production equations. This is a significant number, and some producers say it will be even higher.

Emotions are high this growing season, especially for producers in the heart of the severe drought conditions. The unexpected higher yield estimate and decline in prices since the beginning of July due to several factors has intensified these emotions. The wheat tour result is just one piece of information the markets react to. Two of the three days of the tour, the market moved higher, with analysts citing other factors as well, such as technical sell points, corn and soybean weather forecasts, and the start of spring wheat harvest impacting trends. The final harvest and yield report from producers themselves, as well as a full recognition of abandoned acres, and both domestic and international demand factors, will be the final driving forces in establishing the value of the 2017 crop.

When the full extent of the drought-impacted production areas is considered, it certainly appears the tour overestimated both spring wheat and durum yield potential in 2017. For durum, it is significant since likely two-thirds of the main region was not part of the survey routes. For spring wheat, it may not be as significant because there is strong yield potential in the eastern third of [North Dakota and] into Minnesota that will offset some, but not all, of the reduction in harvested acres in the west … Tour organizers have noted the strong negative reaction from producers from the final tour yield results. And also heard from the NDWC and producers during the tour about concerns over the lack of accounting for abandoned acres and lack of field counts in western areas. It will lead to some reevaluation of routes in future tours, or recognition of the need to weight yield counts to better account for significant crop condition difference between regions.

The tour has been conducted for more than 20 years, and has provided a great opportunity to build connections between producers in this region and some of its most important customers. This year may have added some challenges, but it also provides an opportunity to expand communication along all segments of the industry. Milers and other end-users of wheat grown in our region need to have producers be successful, for them to be successful.

/by
thumbnail

New Port Worker Contract Adds Stability to PNW Export Operations

Members of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) are crucial workers at U.S. export grain elevators. Overseas wheat buyers in the Asia-Pacific region likely recall the challenges faced in 2015 during a lengthy contract negotiation that occasionally interrupted the West Coast supply chain. Although the dispute was finally settled with a contract through June 2019, trade organizations representing shippers like the Pacific Grain Exporters Association and transportation providers encouraged the parties to consider negotiating a longer-term agreement.

On Aug. 4, union longshore workers at 29 ports in Oregon, California and Washington ratified a new, three-year contract extension with the PMA. The contract virtually eliminates the possibility of a labor-related disruption through July 1, 2022. The contract also increases wages along with health and pension benefits.

The new contract clearly adds operational stability to Pacific Northwest ports that loaded more than 13 MMT of U.S. wheat exports in marketing year 2016/17, representing almost 48 percent of total U.S. overseas sales. Along with the U.S. government’s commitment to continuous improvement of the Columbia-Snake River System, USW believes this is very good news for overseas wheat buyers and U.S. farmers.

/by
thumbnail
, , , , ,

Annual Spring Wheat Tour Sees Drought Taking Toll on Yield Potential

By Erica Oakley, USW Director of Programs

This week, the Wheat Quality Council hosted its annual hard red spring (HRS) and durum crop tour. Participants spent three days in North Dakota surveying this year’s crop and estimating yield. The tour, which surveyed a total of 496 fields, estimated weighted average HRS yield at 38.1 bushels per acre (bu/a), significantly lower than last year’s HRS average of 45.7 bu/a because of ongoing drought conditions in western areas. The durum weighted average yield was 39.7 bu/a, down from 45.4 bu/a in 2016. Results from six HRW fields showed a weighted average of 46.6 bu/a.

Participants on the tour always represent a wide range of the wheat industry, including millers, traders, media, farmers, researchers and government officials. There were 76 participants on this tour, who traveled along eight distinct routes covering most of the state’s wheat production. I joined my USW colleague Assistant Director of Policy Elizabeth Westendorf on the tour.

It was insightful to see the conditions on the ground after reading reports about the drought. It was also interesting to see the difference in field conditions along each of the routes over all three days.

On the first day, participants drove between Fargo and Bismarck, with two routes going farther into the western part of the state, and others covering western Minnesota and northern South Dakota. Conditions on the eastern side looked good, though there was evidence of drought stress. Reports from the west included evidence of much more severe conditions. The Day 1 weighted average yield was 38.8 bu/a, down from 42.9 bu/a in 2016. For HRS specifically, the yield was 37.9 bu/a, down from 43.1 bu/a in 2016. The scouts surveyed 207 fields on Day 1, of which 194 were HRS, 10 durum and three HRW.

On Day 2, the tour surveyed 225 fields, 188 of which were HRS; along with 34 durum and 3 HRW. The group moved from Bismarck to Devils Lake. The more western routes reported drought stress, though not as severe as the scouts saw in southwestern North Dakota on Day 1. Overall average for Day 2 was 35.7 bu/a, down from 46.5 in 2016. For HRS, the yield was 35.8 bu/a, down from 46.9.

The third day of the tour included a half day of crop surveying. The participants then all returned to North Dakota State University’s Northern Crops Institute in Fargo to compile the overall crop report. On Day 3, participants surveyed at total of 61 HRS fields and three durum fields. The Day 3 weighted average yield for HRS was 46.2 bu/a, down from 51.9 bu/a in 2016. The weighted average durum yield from just three fields was 46.2 bu/a, down from 52.1 bu/a in 2016.

The results reflect a snapshot of yield potential observed by the participants in the fields they scouted.

“There is still a question of abandonment because of the dryness,” said Dave Green, executive vice president of the Wheat Quality Council. “We do not yet know how much of the crop has been hayed — how much of it has been plowed under.”

View highlights and photos from the tour by searching #wheattour17 on Facebook and Twitter. For more information and for results from previous tours, visit the Wheat Quality Council’s website at www.wheatqualitycouncil.org.

/by
thumbnail
, , ,

Diminishing Low Protein Premiums Add Value to Soft White Export Supplies

By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst

Four consecutive years of drought, which shrunk soft white (SW) production and increased average protein levels, had the market rationing demand through low protein premiums. Now, after two years of more normal weather patterns, low protein premiums are quickly disappearing providing an excellent buying opportunity for U.S. wheat customers.

In marketing year 2016/17 (June to May), the protein premium for 10.5 percent maximum protein SW shrunk to an average 60 cents per metric ton (MT), compared to the 5-year average of $10 per MT (U.S. protein is calculated on a 12 percent moisture basis). The protein premium for 9.5 maximum protein SW fell to $14 per MT. So far in 2017/18, the 10.5 maximum protein premium has increased slightly to 71 cents per MT due to the uncertainty of harvest; however, the 9.5 maximum protein premium has continued to shrink to an average $6 per MT due to expectations of “normal” protein distributions and an ample supply of SW.

According to USW Crop Quality data, the 5-year average protein for SW is 10.4 percent, which includes two higher protein years (2014/15 and 2015/16). Prior to 2014/15, the 5-year average was 9.9 percent. The expectation of “normal” protein distributions is a direct result of more normal growing conditions. Idaho, Oregon and Washington received timely and ample moisture throughout the growing season, resulting in good stands and grain-fill.

In USDA’s latest winter wheat condition report for 2017/18, winter wheat conditions across the three states averaged 78 percent good to excellent. On July 24, spring wheat conditions in Idaho and Washington were rated 63 percent and 40 percent good to excellent, respectively. Roughly 87 percent of SW is winter wheat and 13 percent is spring wheat.

In addition to good crop conditions, USDA also expects average yield to reach 65.9 bushels per acre (4.43 MT per hectare) or 3 percent above the 5-year average. If realized, that would still be 7 percent below 2016/17 yields. USDA expects large 2017/18 SW beginning stocks to offset an anticipated 11 percent decline in production. Total 2017/18 SW supply is projected to remain stable year over year at 9.77 million metric tons (MMT).

It is important to note that the decline in low protein premiums are currently being driven not by actual data, but by the expectation of normal protein distributions and decent yields at this point because the 2017 SW harvest is only just underway. As always, nothing is guaranteed until the wheat is safely in the bins, but customers can take advantage of the decline in low protein premiums to secure high quality, low-protein SW at reasonable prices.

Customers are encouraged to keep abreast of harvest conditions and to contact their local USW representative with any questions about U.S. wheat supplies and production.

To read the latest USW Weekly Harvest Report, click here.

To subscribe to USW Reports, click here.

/by
thumbnail
,

Profiling U.S. Wheat Sustainability: Justin Knopf, Hard Red Winter Wheat Farmer

By Elizabeth Westendorf, USW Assistant Director of Policy

Justin Knopf’s family has been farming land in central Kansas for five generations — starting with their original homestead in the 1860s. Now, Knopf farms 4,000 acres with his father and brother, growing HRW wheat, alfalfa, grain sorghum, soybeans and corn.

“I feel like I have been given a gift to be able to work with the land, and that comes with responsibility,” said Knopf. “What I do impacts consumers, so it is important to take time and energy to be transparent with them and share the bigger story of what is happening in our landscape.”

Knopf is the last farmer in USW’s six-part series on farmer sustainability. USW has featured farmers from each class of U.S. wheat and from all over the country to highlight how their production practices are dependent on local factors and how they each address the goal of sustainability on their farm.

To Knopf, sustainability involves stewardship of resources in three areas — environmental, economic and human. He uses tools, research and continuing farm education opportunities to implement agronomic practices to protect natural resources such as soil, water and air, while also optimizing his production per unit of resources. This is environmental sustainability. Knopf also works to make economically responsible decisions for the farm because if it cannot survive as a business, he will not have a long-term ability to positively affect the environment down the road, which is economic sustainability. And finally, Knopf feels there is a human element to the sustainability conversation. He spends time focusing on the health and happiness of his family, his town and his neighbors while also working to educate consumers, which is social sustainability. All three of these are necessary for agriculture to thrive.

“The land will go on for much longer than I will be here, and it’s a much bigger story outside of myself, so I feel a responsibility to share that bigger story of what is happening with other people as a part of our stewardship,” said Knopf.

Knopf works to share his story by being involved in consumer outreach programs and sustainability research. Two years ago, in a partnership with Kansas Farm Bureau, he hosted a family on his farm for the day to show them how wheat is produced. Last year, Knopf was featured in the book “Rancher, Farmer, Fisherman: Conservation Heroes of the American Heartland” by Miriam Horn, which talked about his focus on improving soil health on his farm. A documentary film by the same title, narrated by award-winning journalist Tom Brokaw, and directed by Emmy-winning and Oscar-nominated Susan Froemke and Emmy-winning filmmaker John Hoffman, will premiere on the Discovery Channel in late August 2016.

Knopf’s emphasis on soil quality and increasing organic matter is particularly impressive. He does this by using no-till methods, carefully calibrating his crop rotations to maximize organic matter and experimenting with cover crops. These practices have improved his soil health, increased soil moisture and improved fertility, allowing him to reduce inputs like fertilizer and fuel and ultimately increase yields. As part of this constant effort to improve, Knopf experiments with new ideas on his farm to make sure that he is being a responsible land owner and manager.

“We see our soils as a fundamentally essential natural resource that is irreplaceable — and it takes a long time to build that soil up again if you lose it,” said Knopf. “And one of the foundational ideas of our family and our farm business is to be a steward of those natural resources and do everything we can to leave them in a better shape for the next generation.”

Learn more about Knopf and his farm at www.uswheat.org/factsheets. U.S. farmers, ranchers, fishermen and foresters also share their values, sustainability experiences and conservation practices at the U.S. Sustainability Alliance.

/by
thumbnail
, , , , , , , , , ,

U.S. Wheat Production to Fall to Lowest Level Since 2002/03

USDA forecast U.S. 2017/18 wheat production at 47.9 million metric tons (MMT), down 24 percent year over year and 18 percent below the 5-year average. The reason: an anticipated 12 percent decline in average yield and the lowest planted acres since USDA records began in 1919. However, USDA expects 2017/18 U.S. beginning stocks to total 32.2 MMT, up 21 percent year over year and the most since 1988/89. As a result, total 2017/18 U.S. wheat supply is forecast at 80.1 MMT, down 10 percent from 2016/17 but still 1 percent above the 5-year average of 79.3 MMT. USDA expects average yield to be 46.2 bu/acre (3.10 MT/ha), which is close to the 5-year average of 46.6 bu/acre (3.13 MT/ha).

On June 30, USDA estimated total planted wheat area would fall 9 percent year over year to 45.7 million acres (18.5 million hectares). If realized, that would be 17 percent lower than the 5-year average. USDA expects 2017/18 harvested area to drop 13 percent from last year and 18 percent below the 5-year average to 38.1 million acres (15.4 million hectares).

USDA forecast 2017/18 hard red winter (HRW) production to total 20.6 MMT, down 30 percent from 2016/17 and 14 percent below the 5-year average. A smaller planted area and sharply lower harvested area led to the decline. U.S. farmers planted 23.8 million acres (9.63 million hectares) of HRW for 2017/18, down 10 percent from 2016. Due to weather and wheat streak mosaic virus, harvested area in top HRW-producers Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas is projected to fall 16 percent year over year. USDA forecast 2017/18 HRW beginning stocks at 16.1 MMT, up 33 percent year over year and 81 percent above the 5-year average. Total 2017/18 HRW supply is expected to total 36.8 MMT, down 12 percent from 2016/17.

Soft red winter (SRW) production is also expected to decline 11 percent to 8.33 MMT in 2017/18 due to fewer planted acres. USDA estimated total 2017/18 SRW area at 5.61 million acres (2.27 million hectares), 15 percent lower than 2016/17 and 30 percent below the 5-year average. In contrast to recent years, SRW harvest in the U.S. Southern Plains is progressing rapidly with good harvest conditions. On July 7, the USW Weekly Harvest report showed the average grade on 199 samples was U.S. #2 in a generally sound crop with DON levels that are significantly below the 5-year average. USDA estimates that SRW 2017/18 beginning stocks totaled 5.85 MMT, up 37 percent from 2016/17 and 47 percent above the 5-year average. The larger beginning stocks will offset reduced production, and total 2017/18 SRW supply is expected to increase by 500,000 MT year over year to 14.2 MMT.

USDA reported white wheat production will decrease 11 percent from 2016/17 to 6.91 MMT, but still 1 percent above the 5-year average, if realized. The decline is due to 3 percent fewer planted acres and slightly lower forecast yields. Idaho, Oregon and Washington have received ample moisture and winter wheat conditions there average 78 percent good to excellent. USDA estimates soft white (SW) beginning stocks increased 42 percent year over year to 2.86 MMT. The larger beginning stocks are expected to offset the lower production, leaving the 2017/18 SW supply unchanged year over year at 9.77 MMT.

Hard red spring (HRS) production is expected to plummet in 2017/18 to 10.5 MMT, down 22 percent from the prior year and the lowest since 2002/03, if realized. The average spring wheat yield is forecast at 40.3 bu/acre (2.73 MT/ha), down 15 percent from 2016/17. USDA also estimates farmers planted 10.3 million acres (4.17 million hectares) to HRS, 10 percent below 2016/17 levels. As of July 11, 55 percent of North Dakota is in a severe or extreme drought and the remainder of the state is abnormally dry or in a moderate drought. Similarly, 72 percent of South Dakota and 45 percent of Montana are in a moderate to extreme drought. As of July 10, just 35 percent of the spring crop was rated good or excellent and 39 percent was poor or very poor. In North Dakota, the largest HRS producing state, 36 percent of the crop is in good or excellent condition. USDA anticipates 2017/18 HRS beginning stocks of 6.39 MMT are 14 percent less than last year. Estimated 2017/18 HRS supply will total 16.9 MMT, down 19 percent year over year. USDA expects the HRS stocks-to-use ratio to fall to 22 percent in 2017/18, compared to 41 percent one year prior.

Smaller planted area and 30 percent lower yields are expected to reduce durum production to 1.55 MMT in 2017/18, down an estimated 45 percent from 2016/17 and 26 percent below the 5-year average. USDA expects average durum yields to sink to 30.9 bu/acre (2.08 MT/ha), compared to 44.0 bu/acre (2.96 bu/acre) in 2016/17. Durum planted area decreased this year as farmers responded to lower prices and large carry-out stocks. Spring-planted northern durum is grown primarily in North Dakota and Montana, and the Desert Durum® harvest in Arizona and California is nearly complete. USDA estimates 2017/18 durum beginning stocks at 980,000 MT, up 29 percent from the prior year and 45 percent greater than the 5-year average. Increased beginning stocks will not offset the drastically reduced 2017/18 production so USDA expects the U.S. durum supply will fall to 2.53 MMT, 29 percent below 2016/17 levels and 9 percent below the 5-year average. The U.S. durum stocks-to-use ratio will fall to 24 percent, on par with the 5-year average.

Even with reduced production for 2017/18, U.S. farmers stored significant amounts of grain last year, ensuring that customers can continue purchasing reliable, high-quality wheat. Customers are encouraged to contact their local USW representative to discuss purchasing strategies in this volatile global wheat market.

/by
thumbnail
,

Profiling U.S. Wheat Sustainability: Bob Johns, Soft White Wheat Farmer

By Emily McGarry, USW Policy Intern

Bob Johns farms in northeast Oregon, and he would tell you that he’s been farming since the day he was born. Johns’ 5,000-acre farm has been in the family since 1873, but he is ready to retire soon. Since there is no family to take over, he is handing the reins to his business partner, Chris Williams, a long-time family friend who began working summers for Johns when he was in high school.

“I have been around agricultural stuff my whole life,” said Williams. “I am fascinated with starting with a bare piece of ground, seeing what you can grow and watching it progress through the season.”

Together, Johns and Williams grow wheat, green peas and alfalfa. They make sustainability a priority on the farm through no-till practices, clean water programs and new farming technology.

“Farming is my life and it’s what I’ve always wanted to do — I never thought of doing anything else,” said Johns. “My father’s life was farming and he passed that on to me. I hope to pass it on to my business partner, Chris.”

Johns is the fifth of six U.S. wheat farmers featured in USW’s series on wheat sustainability. He manages regional agricultural nuances by adapting his practices to be sustainable for his region’s soil and environmental conditions. Part of that also includes planning for the future and a non-traditional transition so that his farm business is still successful for years to come.

“Chris loves the land,” said Johns. “He keeps me on the cutting edge and pushes me to look at the latest technology. We are a good team.”

Northeast Oregon is known for its extremely steep farmland, which often requires special equipment and makes soil erosion a challenge. Johns sees wide variation in his soil quality and the amount of rainfall on his farm, so individual fields often require different levels of attention and inputs. In the past, steep slopes on his farm caused erosion. However, in 2011, Johns switched to no-till practices, which has cut his erosion to nearly zero and greatly improved soil health.

In order to protect the region’s natural resources, Johns and Williams also had their farm certified as “salmon-safe,” which means they restrict the products they use on their land that is near water sources. They also grow plants in those areas that increase the biodiversity on their farm and promote beneficial insects and wildlife.

“We value the environment and we value what we’re doing on the ground,” said Johns. “It’s important to us; we don’t just go out without thinking about those things.”

For Johns, this means finding ways to improve practices through new technology and innovation. Last year, Johns and Williams started experimenting with a drone on their farm to see if aerial photos of their fields could give them insight on crop health and stress levels, soil fertility and input requirements.

Johns and Williams are constantly finding new ways to improve the sustainability of their farm, whether through certification opportunities, government programs, or new technology and practices. But the piece that is most important is the plan for transition. Because Johns partnered with Williams, he knows that his farm will be in good hands when he retires — with someone who loves the land as much as he does.

Learn more about John’s and Williams’ farming partnership at www.uswheat.org/factsheets. U.S. farmers, ranchers, fishermen and foresters also share their values, sustainability experiences and conservation practices at the U.S. Sustainability Alliance.

/by

Think Farm Export Programs Don’t Matter? Think Again.

GET THE REST OF THE STORY

DTN Wheat Detail
DTN Corn Detail

2008-2013 U.S. Wheat Associates. All Rights Reserved
Privacy Policy | Non-Discrimination Statement