Diplomacy is defined as the profession, activity or skill of managing international relations, typically by a country’s representatives abroad and, secondarily, the art of dealing with people in a sensitive and effective way.

While the local representatives of U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) are well versed in the art of diplomacy, twice every year USW sends leading U.S. farmers overseas as ambassadors to the people who import, mill and use the wheat they grow.

USW refers to these delegations as “Board Teams” because they typically include members of USW’s board of directors who are selected by state wheat commission members. Such “diplomatic” missions help strengthen customer relationships but also give the participants the chance to see how the organization and local USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) staff work together to represent U.S. farmers.

Bound this month for the Philippines, Singapore and Indonesia, the next Board Team includes: Joseph Anderson of Lewiston, Idaho, representing the Idaho Wheat Commission; Wally Powell of Condon, Ore., representing the Oregon Wheat Commission; Philip Volk, of York, N.D., representing the North Dakota Wheat Commission; and team leader Catherine Miller, Program and Planning Coordinator with USW.

The team will get orientated for their trip at the USW West Coast Office in Portland, Ore., including time with USW staff to learn more about the “nuts and bolts” of USW’s market development programs and what to expect when traveling overseas, the Wheat Marketing Center, Federal Grain Inspection Service, an export elevator and OMIC USA.

The vibrant milling and wheat foods industries in the Philippines and Indonesia will provide an excellent introduction to growing markets. For example, Indonesia is expected to become the world’s largest wheat importer in the future fueled by an average increase in flour consumption of about five percent per year. The team’s visit to the USW South Asian Regional Office in Singapore will also expose the participants to the hub of export market development activity in the region.

The team members will report back to USW directors later this year and, as regional leaders, to their wheat farmer neighbors.

Photos and comments from the team’s activities will be posted on USW’s Facebook page at www.facebook/uswheat.

Joe Anderson.

Wally Powell.

Phil Volk.

Catherine Miller.

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U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) is sad to share news that our former colleague Muyiwa Talabi passed away Feb. 5, 2019, in Lagos, Nigeria, after a prolonged illness.

“Muyiwa Talabi was employed by USW as the Marketing Coordinator for Nigeria from 1994 until his early retirement for health reasons in 2016,” said Regional Director for Sub-Saharan Africa Gerald Theus. “During his 22 years at USW, he worked closely and tirelessly with the USW Cape Town office in preparing the many market development programs targeting Nigeria. He opened the USW sub-office in Lagos in 2001 and managed its overall operations until his retirement. Working closely with the late Jim McKenna, USW Technical Milling Consultant for the Sub-Saharan Region, Muyiwa helped pave the way for U.S. farmers to become the dominant wheat suppliers to Nigeria and its 189 million people. It was under Muyiwa’s watch that hard red winter (HRW) become the preferred wheat in Nigeria and the largest HRW export market in the world for six years running. Muyiwa also recommended and implemented strategic market development programs that encouraged Nigerian flour mills to import all six classes of U.S. wheat.”

Muyiwa (second from right), joined a team of flour millers from Nigeria to Kansas and the IGP Institute in 2012. His work in Nigeria helped pave the way for U.S. farmers to become the dominant wheat suppliers to the west African nation.

Muyiwa brought a deep knowledge of Nigerian business and culture to USW. Educated in public administration and international relations at the University of Lagos, he spent two years with the Lagos government as an administrative officer, leaving to take a private sector position with Kingsway Stores, a supermarket chain owned by Unilever. Prior to attending university, Muyiwa served for two years in Nigeria’s National Youth Service Corps. For six years before joining USW, he worked for USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service as an agricultural specialist at the U.S. Consulate in Lagos.

2015 Nigerian Trade Delegation visit to Darrell Davis’s farm in South Dakota.

Everyone who knew and worked with Muyiwa can recall his consistently positive outlook and politeness in every interaction. He is survived by his wife and two sons. All of us at USW will miss him and we share our sincere condolences to his family and friends.

Muyiwa Talabi

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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By Claire Hutchins, USW Market Analyst

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) reports on global wheat supply and demand to its farmer directors at each of their board meetings. The directors meet in Washington, D.C., the week of Feb. 11 and the report will include the following update on marketing year 2018/19 wheat production, with one exception: the latest U.S. supply and demand data will be added after USDA issues catch-up reports on Feb. 8.

Canada. In its January “Principle Field Crops” report, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) tallied total 2018/19 Canadian wheat production at 31.8 million metric tons (MMT) (1.20 billion bushels), up 6 percent year over year. AAFC estimated the average yield for all wheat was 3.22 MT/ha (47.9 bu/acre). That is down 4 percent from 2017/18 though significantly offset by a 10 percent increase in harvested area to 9.90 million hectares (24.5 million acres). Production of all wheat excluding durum increased 4 percent from 2017/18 levels to 26.0 MMT due to increased harvested area, despite slightly lower yields in 2018/19.

Increased planted area helped push durum production up by 16 percent to 5.70 MMT, while quality decreased slightly. The Canadian Grains Commission (CGC) reported 85 percent of the Canadian Western Amber Durum (CWAD) samples tested graded No. 1 or No. 2 CWAD, compared to 91 percent in 2017/18. For Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS), CGC reported 56 percent of samples were No. 1 CWRS, compared to 78 percent in 2017/18. The percentage of samples tested as feed grade increased to 11 percent compared to last year’s 4 percent.

AAFC expects 2018/19 Canadian total wheat exports (including durum) to reach 22.9 MMT, up 5 percent from last year if realized.

European Union. Stratégie Grains (SG) forecasted total European Union (EU) wheat production at 136 MMT, down 11 percent year over year due to adverse weather conditions and decreased harvested area. Total EU harvested wheat area fell 2 percent year over year and total average yields for the region fell 9 percent. Common (non-durum) wheat production fell 10 percent from 2017/18 levels to 127 MMT due to significant weather challenges in Germany, France, and the Baltic countries.

Durum production fell 7 percent to 8.60 MMT in 2018/19, however this year’s total still sits slightly above the 5-year average of 8.50 MMT. SG noted that Italian durum yields were their lowest since 2010 at 3.09 MT/ ha (46.0 bu/acre), and the situation was exacerbated by a low-protein harvest that failed to match the excellent quality recorded in 2017. French durum yields were also the lowest they have been since 2011, not counting the disastrous harvest recorded in 2016.

SG expects total EU wheat exports to fall to 19.2 MMT, down 18 percent year over year, if realized due to increased animal feed consumption, following poor quality harvest years in Spain and France, and decreased overall supplies.

Australia. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) forecasted 2018/19 wheat production at 17.0 MMT, its lowest volume since 2007/08 due to extreme drought in New South Wales and Queensland. Wheat exports will decrease sharply year over year due to lower production and increased demand for domestic feed supplies. Domestic demand for feed wheat, due to forage pressure on livestock herds, is expected to increase 20 percent year over year to 5.0 MMT. ABARES estimates total Australian wheat exports will fall 31 percent below 2017/18 levels and 40 percent below the 5-year average, down to 10.6 MMT.

Argentina. Bolsa de Cereales, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, reported a record Argentinian harvest of 19.0 MMT, despite concerns in late December 2018 that yield and quality could suffer from hard rains and hail storms. Final average yields are right in line with the 5-year average at 3.10 MT/ha (46.2 bu/acre) but fall below last year’s 3.20 MT/ha (47.7 bu/acre). Total production is up 10 percent from 2017/18 with increased planted and harvested area, which offset lower yields. Planted area increased 9 percent year over year to 6.0 million hectares (14.8 million acres). USDA expects 2018/19 Argentina wheat exports to total 14.2 MMT, 15 percent above last year’s export volume and 40 percent above the 5-year average, if realized.

Black Sea. SG estimated Russian wheat production at 72.0 MMT, down 18 percent from last year’s 85.0 MMT due to decreased harvested area and notably lower yields across the board. Russia’s harvested area dropped by 5 percent year over year to 26.3 million hectares (65.0 million acres) and average yields decreased by 12 percent to 2.73 MT/ha (40.6 bu/acre). Most significant yield losses were reported in Russia’s southeastern Volga region, which fell 33 percent below last year’s figures. Though Russian production fell significantly below 2017/18 levels, this year’s 72.0 MMT still lands 3 percent higher than the 5-year average of 70.0 MMT. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture readjusted its 2018/19 total wheat export estimates to 36.0 MMT, a 12 percent drop from 2017/18 export levels, if realized. As of late January 2019, IKAR reported total Russian exports at 26.2 MMT, or 73 percent of the country’s total expected export volume. SG estimates that the influence of Russia’s decreased production and exports will bolster global wheat prices until the start of MY 2019/20.

The State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU) estimated the 2018/19 wheat harvest at 24.6 MMT, right in line with the 5-year average, but down 8 percent from last year’s record harvest due to decreased yields which offset increased harvested area. SG reports Ukraine’s 2018/19 average yield at 3.72 MT/ha (55.3 bu/acre), 7 percent below last year’s record of 4.16 MT/ ha (61.9 bu/acre). Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture tallied total wheat exports, as of late January 2019, at 11.2 MMT. Last year, the Ukrainian government issued a memorandum establishing a 2018/19 export ceiling at 16.0 MMT, its lowest export volume since 2014/15, if realized.

SG estimated Kazakh wheat production at 14.3 MMT, down slightly from last year due to decreased harvested area. However, the Kazakh Agriculture Ministry estimated the country will export a record 9.0 MMT in 2018/19, 1.20 MMT more than left the country last year. If realized, this year’s total Black Sea exports from all three countries will amount to 61.0 MMT, down 12 percent from last year, but still 11 percent above the 5-year average.

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In 1972, U.S. wheat farmers established the Wheat Foods Council (WFC) as a national non-profit organization to promote wheat-based food categories, including baked goods, cereal, crackers, pretzels, pasta, sweet goods and tortillas. Today, WFC is a leading source of science-based information on wheat and wheat foods nutrition, striving to increase awareness of dietary grain as an essential part of a healthful diet. Its membership has expanded to include grain producers, millers and bakers, baking suppliers, life science companies and cereal manufacturers.

WFC develops programs and materials for several audiences, primarily in the United States, including health and nutrition professionals, educators, athletes and personal trainers, chefs and consumers. Most of these resources are available on the WFC website, www.wheatfoods.org. Viewers can visit the site for general information on flour and baking, gluten, how wheat is grown and more. There are educational tool kits, infographicsrecipes, and a quarterly e-magazine, “Kernels.” Recently, WFC launched “Food Fit,” an easy-to-use mobile app full of science-based, credible nutrition information tailored to personal trainers, fitness professionals and their clients.

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) and the WFC are both U.S. farmer-led organizations that promote the value and benefits of U.S. wheat. Global human wheat consumption is on the rise and as the demand for wheat foods grows stronger, overseas U.S. wheat customers can look to the WFC for resources and ideas to increase awareness of wheat foods nutrition.

For more information, go to www.wheatfoods.org and follow the Wheat Foods Council on Facebook and Twitter.

By Amanda J. Spoo, USW Assistant Director of Communications


Read about other USW educational partners in this series:

Northern Crops Institute Continues Tradition of Adding Value to U.S. Spring Wheat and Durum
IGP Institute Capitalizes on Resources and Location to Provide Hands-on Training
Wheat Marketing Center Creates Educational Bridge Between U.S. Wheat Farmers And Customers

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By Elizabeth Westendorf, USW Assistant Director of Policy

This week, Wageningan University —one of the top agricultural universities in the world, located in the Netherlands —issued a press release about their research on using gene editing to produce “gluten safe” wheat so that individuals with Celiac disease can enjoy wheat products. It is possible to remove all gluten genes from wheat; however, this process has a negative impact on baking quality and the wheat-food product. Instead, Wageningan PhD candidate Aurélie Jouanin is researching the use of CRISPR/Cas9 technology to modify specific wheat genes to produce wheat with safe gluten that does not cause an allergic reaction.

This is only one of many exciting research projects around the world using plant breeding innovation. These new technologies allow for precise changes to plant DNA to help address thorny challenges—consumer health, environmental stressors and disease pressures, among others. And as scientists find innovative ways to address complex issues, outdated and overly burdensome regulations struggle to catch up.

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) recognizes that advanced technology is imperative to helping farmers adapt to changing and challenging growing environments. Traditional breeding often takes too long and produces results that are too random to consistently keep up with evolving diseases and pests, and it has very little hope of doing something at the same scale as the potential of Jouanin’s research.

However, new technology also needs to be paired with consumer engagement and smart trade decisions. Recognizing this, the USW and the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) adopted a joint statement on plant breeding innovation policy.

This statement distinguishes the importance of new technology in breeding for everyone along the supply chain, from farmers to international customers to consumers. It reaffirms our support of continued research; of fair, science-based regulation where necessary; and of the U.S. and foreign governments taking steps to ensure open trade flows. The statement also argues that plant breeding innovations should be clearly differentiated from traditional biotechnology in regulatory discussions, with internationally harmonized definitions and scientific standards.

Government regulations often move slowly. However, in this case, that slow movement can have serious repercussions on the agricultural industry and on consumers who could benefit from new technology. With this new policy statement, USW sends a clear message of support for science-based decision making and the opportunities that plant breeding innovation present for wheat.

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Recent news and highlights from around the wheat industry.

Quote of the Week: “I really think [spring] wheat acres will see a resurgence because of the value of wheat in the rotation. In Minnesota and North Dakota, spring wheat is a premier, quality crop.” – Dave Torgerson, Executive Director, Minnesota Wheat Research and Promotion Council and Minnesota Association of Wheat Growers.

Torgerson to Retire. Dave Torgerson has announced he will retire as Executive Director of the Minnesota Wheat Research and Promotion Council and the Minnesota Association of Wheat Growers on March 31, 2019. Dave began his service to wheat growers in June 1987 as a Marketing Specialist and accepted the Executive Director position in 1990. Thank you, Dave, for your service to the U.S. wheat industry. All of us at USW wish you and your family all the best in a long and happy retirement.

2019 National Wheat Yield Contest. The National Wheat Foundation (NWF) is now accepting grower enrollment for the 2019 National Wheat Yield Contest. The Contest includes winter wheat and spring wheat primary categories and dryland and irrigated subcategories. NFW is accepting winter wheat entries between April and May 15, 2019, and spring wheat entries between June 15 and Aug. 1, 2019. Learn more here.

Birth Defects Prevention Month. Enriched grain foods supply iron and folic acid that significantly lower the risk of some birth defects. The Food Fortification Initiative estimated in 2017 that 86 countries require wheat flour, maize and/or rice fortification and that 50,270 brain and spine birth defects were prevented due to flour fortified with folic acid — an average of 137 healthier babies every day! Throughout January, The Wheat Foods Council and the Grains Foods Foundation are featuring several resources including a fact sheet and infographic for promotional use.

Buhler-KSU Milling Short Courses. The IGP Institute offers milling courses this spring at its campus in Manhattan, Kan., including: The Buhler-KSU Expert Milling course, offered in English March 4 to 8, 2019, and in Spanish March 11 to 15, 2019; the Buhler-KSU Executive Milling course, offered in English May 20 to 24, 2019. Click here to register for these courses.

Pasta Production and Technology Course. The Northern Crops Institute is hosting a Pasta Production and Technology Course April 30 to May 2, 2019, at its facilities in Fargo, ND. This course introduces participants to the fundamental and applied aspects of pasta production and quality. Click here to learn more and register.

Sincere Condolences to Ambassador Gregg Doud, Chief Agricultural Negotiator in the Office of the United States Trade Representative, and his family on the death of his mother, JoAnn Doud, following a tragic fall at the Doud family farm in Kansas. Amb. Doud is a former USW colleague who served as Market Analyst and Assistant Director of the West Coast Office.

Subscribe to USW Reports. USW publishes a variety of reports and content that are available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts, the weekly Price Report and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online. Visit our page at https://www.facebook.com/uswheat for the latest updates, photos and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter at www.twitter.com/uswheatassoc and video stories at https://www.youtube.com/uswheatassociates.

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By Ben Conner, USW Vice President of Policy

Last week, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) submitted comments to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative on negotiating objectives for a potential trade agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom (UK). The UK has been part of the European Union (EU) since before the creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and until recently has had no independent trade policy.

The 2016 “Brexit” vote to leave the EU changed this, and left the UK scrambling to hire new trade negotiators (even outsourcing leadership of the negotiations with the EU to a former negotiator from New Zealand) to untangle the decades of integration with the EU and figure out what may be put back together. The UK will also be busy negotiating new trade agreements outside the EU to replace the ones it will lose, unless a post-Brexit deal with the EU precludes an independent trade and regulatory policy.

There were pros and cons to Brexit for the British people, and the same is true for its effects on trade relations between the United States and the UK. There is now an opportunity to expand trade between both countries and address some of the tariff and regulatory barriers that have increased the costs of importing certain kinds of U.S. wheat. Unfortunately, one of the risks of Brexit is that our customers may see their markets limited due to the loss of unfettered access to continental markets.

The UK is also free to pursue a regulatory policy that emphasizes science, in contrast to the so much of what we’ve seen out of the EU. The UK has typically been one of the strongest voices for reasonable, science-based regulatory policies within the EU, and USW is but one of many opinions hoping for improved policies in a post-Brexit UK, while also encouraging EU leaders to stand up to activists who are often either dismissive or irresponsible about modern farming practices and technologies.

While there are always challenges, U.S. wheat farmers want to have positive trading relationships with both the EU and the UK. We hope that the Trump Administration can negotiated high-standard, modern free trade agreements with both.

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Name: Kong Song “Ivan” Goh

Title: Biscuit/Bakery and Noodle Technologist

Office: USW South Asia Regional Office, Singapore

Providing Service to: Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Republic of the Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam

Regional Profile: Rapidly rising disposable income and urbanization in South Asia are opening markets for baked goods, biscuits, cakes, and other foods that require more types of higher-quality flour. As the milling and wheat foods industries rush to increase capacity, USW is helping them improve and expand product lines using high-quality soft white (SW) for cake, biscuit, and confectionery flour, and U.S. hard red winter (HRW) and hard red spring (HRS) for bread flour. USW also conducts baking seminars to introduce new products with higher profit margins using flour milled from U.S. wheat.


Common Roots

From far southern Myanmar and southwest Thailand, the Asian continent continues south as the Malay Peninsula to include Western Malaysia and Singapore near its southern tip. Northwest of Kuala Lumpur is the Malaysian state of Malacca. This area has gained a certain notoriety among South Asian wheat food producers as the source of valuable technical support from long-time U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Baking Consultant Roy Chung and now USW Biscuit/Bakery and Noodle Technologist Ivan Goh.

“Roy and I were born in the same hometown in Malacca,” Goh said. “Roy’s father ran a bakery, and my story starts with my family, too. My mum earned a living by selling bite-size snacks called Kuih-muih and fried spring rolls called Popiah. I was nine years old when I started helping her make and sell her food. My interest in cooking and food preparation grew from there. In fact, most of my family members are in food-related work.”

Goh went on to earn a bachelor’s degree in Food Science and Technology from the University of Putra Malaysia, and his talent landed him two job offers even before he graduated in 2012. He said because he is “not a shy person who can do routine jobs,” he chose a technical service position with FFM Berhad in Port Klang, Malaysia, that would expose him to as many parts of the flour milling and baking industries as possible.

“The knowledge I gained there has been very valuable,” he said. “I especially enjoyed the opportunities in technical troubleshooting and handling customer complaints.”

He added that the company always taught its colleagues to appreciate the people who helped them in their work, an experience that would prove important to Goh’s next career opportunity.

An Introduction to USW

USW first crossed paths with Ivan Goh when Roy Chung conducted a USW baking workshop at FFM Berhad in 2014. In 2015, the company sent Ivan to one of the popular USW baking courses Chung developed and led with the UFM Baking & Cooking School in Bangkok, Thailand. USW Regional Vice President Matt Weimar was also there to identify potential candidates to fill a vacant technical position in USW’s South Asian Region.

“Ivan Goh was one of the individuals who stood out in terms of their work and leadership,” Weimar said. “He also impressed Roy, so we decided to follow his career path until it was the right time to invite him to work for our organization.”

That opportunity emerged early in 2018, and Goh has been representing U.S. wheat farmers in the South Asian region since last March.

“The wheat foods industry is rapidly expanding in the region, and we knew Ivan’s experience in quality assurance and control was ideal to help flour mills, bakeries, cookie/cracker, and confectionery processors better understand the quality, value, and use of U.S. wheat flour,” said Weimar. “We set up an active development schedule for Ivan. It started with Ivan shadowing Roy at the USW baking classes at UFM, then on an extended technical service visit with Roy to several flour mills and baking customers in Indonesia.”

On the Road

Goh, who is fluent in several languages spoken in the region, participated with millers from the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam in a USW Contracting for Value workshop and joined Weimar as co-host of a regional trade team that visited Washington state, Idaho, and Montana last August. That schedule keeps Goh mostly away from a home office in Kuala Lumpur and the USW South Asia regional office in Singapore. But he is very excited about the opportunity.

“Roy Chung is a legend as a teacher and technical resource in this region,” Goh said. “I never imagined that one day I would be his colleague. Another thing that impressed me is that USW is the only wheat organization that invites overseas millers to evaluate the quality of every U.S. wheat crop and sincerely listens to their feedback. That must be part of the working culture because I am also free to voice my opinions.”

Late in 2018, there was additional, extensive training for Goh as a student in Class 193 of the 16-week Baking Science and Technology Course at the AIB Institute in Manhattan, Kan.

“Our goal is to help customers improve their product lines and manage cost risks, so the course further strengthened my confidence in helping large-scale bakeries,” Ivan said. “In addition, seeing the performance and benefits of using flour from U.S. wheat classes firsthand will help me demonstrate how customers can get the most value possible from those flour products in their own bakeries.”

“Ivan received a medal as the fourth-ranked student in the class and was recognized with one of the Bakery Equipment Manufacturers Association awards recognizing ‘Excellence in Laboratory Leadership Performance,” Weimar said. “The relationships he developed with his fellow students will also be very valuable in the future.”

Weimar noted that Ivan Goh has had a very productive first year with U.S. Wheat Associates, adding “we are proud of Ivan’s progress, and we look forward to many more successful technical support activities to come. That is a commitment to our South Asian customers and the U.S. wheat farmers we are proud to represent.”


By Steve Mercer, USW Vice President of Communications

Editor’s Note: This is the first in a series of posts profiling U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) technical experts in flour milling and wheat foods production. USW Vice President of Global Technical Services Mark Fowler says technical support to overseas customers is an essential part of export market development for U.S. wheat. “Technical support adds differential value to the reliable supply of U.S. wheat,” Fowler says. “Our customers must constantly improve their products in an increasingly competitive environment. We can help them compete by demonstrating the advantages of using the right U.S. wheat class or blend of classes to produce the wide variety of wheat-based foods the world’s consumers demand.”


Meet the other USW Technical Experts in this blog series:

 

Ting Liu – Opening Doors in a Naturally Winning Way
Shin Hak “David” Oh – Expertise Fermented in Korean Food Culture
Tarik Gahi – ‘For a Piece of Bread, Son’
Gerry Mendoza – Born to Teach and Share His Love for Baking
Marcelo Mitre – A Love of Food and Technology that Bakes in Value and Loyalty
Peter Lloyd – International Man of Milling
 Adrian Redondo – Inspired to Help by Hard Work and a Hero
Andrés Saturno – A Family Legacy of Milling Innovation
Wei-lin Chou – Finding Harmony in the Wheat Industry

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The American Seed Trade Association (ASTA) and the Biotechnology Innovation Organization (BIO) have jointly developed “Innovature,” a new resource to encourage a thoughtful dialogue around innovation in food and agriculture and the tangible benefits for our planet, our health and our food.

 

Through its Innovature.com website, social media and other activities, “Innovature” aims to foster productive conversations between key thought leaders and the public and cultivate broad partnerships that can help realize the full, positive potential of evolving breeding methods like gene editing.

 

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) supports finding new ways to improve wheat quality and increase production with less impact on the environment. New research in biotechnology and plant breeding innovations, and a deepening understanding of DNA, will help make this possible. Scientists can now make far more precise genetic changes to plants and animals to help address some of society’s most urgent challenges including climate change, sustainability, hunger and improving health and wellness.

 

USW welcomed the opportunity to have a place where wide-ranging, inclusive viewpoints about such innovations can be shared and discussed and we have collaborated on “Innovature” with the sponsoring organizations. We will continue to offer our support and recommendations moving forward.

 

The Innovature.com website features original content and news about plant and animal breeding methods and their beneficial effects. We encourage our stakeholders at home and around the world to explore and share the site and engage with “Innovature” on these social media platforms:

 

BIO and ASTA welcome story ideas and other submissions at [email protected]. To learn more about the two organizations, their missions and membership please visit bio.org and betterseed.org.

 

 

“Innovature” is a new platform for engaging in discussion about plant and animal breeding methods and their beneficial effects on our plant, food and health. It includes the website above, www.innovature.com, with original information and news, and an active social media agenda.

 

Photo Above: Copyright Oklahoma State University/Todd Johnson

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By Claire Hutchins, USW Market Analyst

 

As the U.S. government shutdown enters its fourth week, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) leans on its network of media and industry resources to illuminate the information void left by a partially-funded USDA, which cannot publish its critical economic reports until the agency receives full funding again. Fortunately, many other sources have estimated planted area, so USW can approximate the direction of winter wheat and spring wheat planting trends year over year. Winter wheat acres, for 2019 harvest, are expected to fall slightly below planting levels for 2018 harvest, while spring wheat acres, planted in the coming months, are expected to rise above 2018 levels.

 

A Reuters poll of commercial export analysts, published on Jan. 8, 2019, estimated total winter wheat seedings for the 2019 harvest at 32.3 million acres (MA), down nearly 1 percent year over year. This figure falls slightly below USDA ERS data, last updated Dec. 12, 2018, which indicates winter wheat area could total 33.0 MA. The poll’s averaged estimates predict nearly uniform area reductions for all winter wheat classes. Other sources expect a steeper decline in winter wheat acres. Informa Economics forecasts a 1 MA decline year over year at 31.5 MA. However, Justin Gilpin, chief executive officer of Kansas Wheat, believes total U.S. winter wheat acres will remain relatively steady year over year.

 

The Reuters analyst poll estimated 2019 hard red winter (HRW) seeding area at 22.7 MA, down from 22.9 MA planted for 2018 harvest. Gilpin expects a 10 percent decrease in HRW acres in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas due to extremely wet conditions which delayed the soybean harvest and in turn HRW planting. However, he expects an uptick in HRW planted area in northern states, which would partially offset reduced area in the south. Paul Morano, Syngenta’s Head of Key Accounts for wheat, indicates the company saw increased sales of HRW seed last season, but believes HRW acres will remain relatively steady year over year. This reinforces Gilpin’s point in an interview with The Western Producer on Jan. 10, 2019, that HRW seeded area could be flat despite original grower intentions to plant more.

 

Planted area for soft red winter (SRW) could land in the neighborhood of 6.02 MA according to the Reuters poll, down year over year from 6.08 MA. The Reuters poll delivered a degree of optimism for SRW seeded acres compared to other industry expectations. Morano believes that a reduction of 600,000 to 1 million acres (around 10 percent below 2018 levels) for SRW is likely due to the same wet conditions that impeded HRW planting for 2019.

 

USW’s informal survey indicates that hard red spring (HRS) planted area is likely to increase over 2018 levels of 10.5 MA. These estimates fall in line with the latest USDA ERS prediction of 12.7 MA as of Dec. 12. A 17 percent increase in HRS planted area year over year is certainly possible given current market conditions and other industry indicators. HRS in the Northern Plains competes for acreage with other lucrative commodities like corn and soybeans. However, HRS becomes a more alluring alternative up north as low corn prices and volatile trade conditions for soybeans persist into 2019, while average farm gate prices for HRS hold at or above the 5-year average for the first five months of MY 2018/19.

 

Syngenta’s Morano cites “extremely strong demand for HRS seed this early in the year” as a good indication that growers anticipate expanding their HRS acres, barring an unforeseen weather or market event. Red River Farm Network, covering the Dakotas and northwestern Minnesota, also reported that WestBred, a division of Bayer Crop Science, has already sold out of seed for several key varieties of spring wheat earlier than anticipated.

 

Price uncertainty for corn and soybeans continues while HRS farm gate prices trend higher, leading most industry sources to expect 2019 HRS seeded area will increase year over year.  

 

USW will compare the industry estimates covered here to the official USDA Winter Wheat Seedings report when, and if, it becomes available.