thumbnail

By Elizabeth Westendorf, USW Assistant Director of Policy

Seventy-five years ago, the seeds of the Green Revolution were planted when Norman Borlaug began his work on wheat breeding in Mexico. The success of that effort, which was a partnership between the Mexican government and the Rockefeller Foundation, led to the eventual founding of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).

In 1971, CGIAR was established as an umbrella organization to create an international consortium of research centers. CIMMYT was one of the first research centers supported through the CGIAR, which today includes 15 centers around the world with a local presence in 70 countries. Each center focuses on unique challenges, but they are all driven by three broad strategic goals: to reduce poverty; to improve food and nutrition security; and to improve natural resources and ecosystem services.

For 50 years, wheat has been one of the core crops of CGIAR’s focus. CGIAR receives annual funding of about $30 million for wheat, and the economic benefits of that wheat breeding research range from $2.2 to $3.1 billion. This is a benefit-cost ratio of at least 73 to 1 — for every $1 spent in CGIAR wheat research funding, there is more than $73 in economic benefits to global wheat farmers. CIMMYT’s international wheat improvement programs generate $500 million per year in economic benefits. Globally, nearly half of the wheat varieties planted are CGIAR-related; in South, Central and West Asia and North Africa, that number rises to 70 to 80 percent of wheat varieties. When wheat supplies 20 percent of protein and calories in diets worldwide, CGIAR wheat research can have a major impact on the livelihoods of the world’s most poor people.

CGIAR Research Centers have also led to significant benefits for U.S. farmers as well. Approximately 60 percent of the wheat acreage planted in the U.S. uses CGIAR-related wheat varieties. CIMMYT wheat improvement spillovers in the United States repay the total U.S. contribution to CIMMYT’s wheat improvement research budget by a rate of up to 40 to 1. Another partner, the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), has delivered innovations that protect U.S. farmers from crop losses due to destructive pests, and has also partnered with CIMMYT to develop the One Global Wheat Program under CGIAR.

One aspect of the CGIAR success story in the United States is about partnership. Public U.S. universities around the country have partnered with CGIAR on agricultural research, to the benefit of U.S. farmers and farmers worldwide. This partnership allows for knowledge transfer and idea-sharing on a global scale. USW is proud that many of our member states have universities that have partnered with CGIAR on wheat projects.

The news is not all good, however. As we anticipate world population growing to 10 billion in 2050, the demand for wheat is expected to increase by 50 percent. To meet that demand, wheat yields must increase by 1.6 percent annually. Currently they are increasing by less than 1 percent annually. There is plenty of work to do to continue Borlaug’s mission of achieving food security. CGIAR Research Centers will continue to play a critical role in that effort.

The United States’ investment in CGIAR Research Programs makes a vital contribution to agricultural improvements and fosters partnerships with U.S. public research universities, international research centers, private sector partnerships and others. Partnerships with CGIAR make it possible to do the win-win collaborative wheat research that helps meet global food needs, brings tremendous economic benefits to U.S. agriculture and leverages U.S. research dollars.

We invite our stakeholders and overseas customers to learn more about this important partnership and the benefits of CGIAR wheat research in part through a fact sheet posted here on the USW website.

thumbnail

By Vince Peterson, USW President

Recently, I was searching online for some wheat market information to share at an upcoming meeting. I saw a headline that asked: “What country exports the most wheat?” Great, I thought, here we go again with more propaganda about Russia beating the United States in the global wheat export market contest.

Instead, I was quite pleased to scroll down to find that the United States was still the world’s largest wheat exporter in 2017 in terms of “value” according to the “World’s Top Exporters.” Russia produced almost twice the volume of wheat than the United States and more than matched U.S. export volume that year; but at an estimated $6.1 billion, U.S. wheat exports generated $300 million more value than Russian wheat exports.

The reason is clear: there are many private and public wheat buyers, millers and processors around the world that prefer the quality, variety and value of U.S. wheat; and that remains a primary asset to our farmers.

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) has adjusted its allocation of wheat farmer dollars and program funds from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service to activities in markets that have a growing need for a variety of flour products with high quality functional characteristics. There our differential advantages shine through and where the investment offers the most return. On the other hand, USW continues to provide the trade servicing needed in the more cost-sensitive markets that are buying Russian wheat. There is value there, too, with a market environment like today’s in which the price spread between U.S. wheat classes and Black Sea supplies has narrowed. We continue to provide technical support to those buyers to demonstrate and build more knowledge about the true functional value of U.S. wheat. In addition, we are strong advocates for continuous improvement in wheat quality.

Looking ahead, I believe this is the right position for U.S. wheat in a global market with growing income levels, increasing urbanization and record setting consumption every year. It also reflects our mission: to enhance wheat’s profitability for U.S. producers and its value for their customers.

 

USW President Vince Peterson

thumbnail

Recent news and highlights from around the wheat industry.

Quote of the Week: “Obviously we hope that the trade environment improves soon but in the meantime, these funds will allow USW to increase marketing efforts and work on expanding markets in our key customer regions. Some of our largest, highest value markets took decades to build and we need to preserve those relationships to the best of our ability, while exploring new market opportunities…” — Bruce Freitag, a wheat farmer from North Dakota and Chairman of the North Dakota Wheat Commission, discussing new funding for export market development awarded by USDA. Read the full release here.

Two Changes to Official Falling Number Determination for Wheat. The USDA Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS) plans changes to the Falling Number test to reduce inconsistency and variability in test results. Changes are a result of research work undertaken after farmers encountered a significant falling number problem in parts of the Pacific Northwest (PNW) in 2016 and increased efforts to reduce inconsistent results across FGIS lab locations. Learn more here. 

Minnesota Wheat Accepting Applications for Executive Director. The Minnesota Wheat Research and Promotion Council (MWRPC) and the Minnesota Association of Wheat Growers (MAWG) are seeking candidates to succeed long-time Executive Director Dave Torgerson. After serving the two organizations and Minnesota wheat growers for over 30 years, Torgerson will retire on March 31, 2019. Click here for more information.

Buhler-KSU Milling Short Courses. The IGP Institute offers milling courses this spring at its campus in Manhattan, Kan., including: The Buhler-KSU Expert Milling course, offered in English March 4 to 8, 2019, and in Spanish March 11 to 15, 2019; the Buhler-KSU Executive Milling course, offered in English May 20 to 24, 2019. Click here to register for these courses.

Pasta Production and Technology Course. The Northern Crops Institute is hosting a Pasta Production and Technology Course April 30 to May 2, 2019, at its facilities in Fargo, ND. This course introduces participants to the fundamental and applied aspects of pasta production and quality. Click here to learn more and register.

Subscribe to USW Reports. USW publishes a variety of reports and content that are available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts, the weekly Price Report and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online. Visit our page at https://www.facebook.com/uswheat for the latest updates, photos and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter at www.twitter.com/uswheatassoc and video stories at https://www.youtube.com/uswheatassociates.

thumbnail

On Feb. 15, 2019, the United States submitted a counter notification, co-sponsored by Canada, in the World Trade Organization (WTO) Committee on Agriculture on India’s market price support for pulse crops – based on publicly available information. With this counter notification, the U.S. government continues to use the rules-based trading system established by the WTO as an appropriate and welcome step toward fairness and transparency for all its member countries.

In May 2018, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) formally questioned data India has reported to the WTO about its market price support programs for wheat and rice from marketing years 2010/11 to 2013/14. And in 2016, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) and the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) welcomed two trade dispute actions by the USTR challenging Chinese government policies that distort the wheat market and harm wheat growers throughout the rest of the world.

Specifically, in September 2016 a U.S. trade enforcement action challenged the level of China’s trade-distorting market price support programs for wheat as well as for corn and rice. In describing its action, the USTR said domestic price support to Chinese farmers “significantly exceeds China’s aggregate measure of support commitments under the WTO Agreement on Agriculture.” In December that year, a U.S. dispute case alleged that China is not fairly administering its annual tariff rate quotas (TRQ) for corn, rice and 9.64 million metric tons of imported wheat. This request stated that China’s TRQ administration unfairly impedes wheat export opportunities.

The WTO is expected to announce the panel decision in the next few weeks on the original U.S. challenge to China’s domestic agricultural subsidies. The TRQ challenge also continues moving through the dispute process at the WTO.

Progress in these dispute cases indicate the WTO dispute mechanisms continue to provide an effective way to challenge unfair practices and policies. But the approach represented by the Trump administration’s use of unilateral tariffs and the threat of escalation to challenge unfair trade practices threatens the stability of the global trading system. That said, instability channeled properly could be beneficial to the trading system and result in greater long-term stability if it results in eliminating trade barriers, rather than creating new ones.

The past two decades have been a lost opportunity for the WTO negotiating function as major countries like China have refused to take on new responsibilities. Perhaps this unfortunate situation will be the wake-up calls countries need to realize that restricting trade and unfairly advantaging domestic industries in global markets winds up hurting everyone.

USW’s stakeholders hope that that the Administration’s alternative policy does result in positive shifts toward a more open trade environment that encourages strong domestic development in all countries. Yet the Administration’s continued use of the WTO dispute settlement and counter notification processes is also a positive sign that trade disciplines, supported by most of the world, will remain an essential part of global trade.

 

 

thumbnail

By Claire Hutchins, USW Market Analyst

In its February 2019 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA predicted global wheat production to fall 3 percent below last year’s volume to 735 million metric tons (MMT) due to significant weather challenges in the European Union (EU), Russia, and Australia. EU production of 136 MMT falls 11 percent under last year’s harvest, Russian production of 72.0 MMT falls 15 percent below last year and Australian production of 17.0 MMT is the country’s lowest output since 2007/08. Meanwhile, USDA predicts increased production for Canada at 32.0 MMT and the United States at 51.0 MMT.

While USDA decreased its global production estimates for 2018/19, it bumped its estimates of total global use to 747 MMT, a sixth consecutive annual record, driven primarily by a 3 percent increase in Chinese feed and residual use.

Though production is down year over year in several key export regions, world wheat trade estimates are nearly in line with last year’s volume at 179 MMT, 7 percent higher than the 5-year average of 167 MMT. Argentina, Canada and the United States are all expected to increase exports year over year to 14.0 MMT, 24.0 MMT, and 27.2 MMT, respectively. Based on weekly USDA Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) commercial sales data, U.S. wheat export sales (as of Jan. 3, 2019) total 17.9 MMT, or 66 percent of market year 2018/19’s expected export volume.

U.S. Gulf free on board (FOB) prices have been relatively stable for the past few months. Hard red winter (HRW) and hard red spring (HRS) export prices remain relatively unchanged from mid-October while soft red winter (SRW) export prices are on the rise. Though SRW prices are higher now than in recent months, they are still highly competitive on the world stage. As of Feb. 8, 2019, U.S. SRW prices were competitive enough with the French and the Black Sea offers for an Egyptian purchase of 120,000 metric tons (MT). As competitor exportable supplies continue to decrease into the second half of marketing year 2018/19, U.S. wheat is expected to remain more competitive in this and other price-sensitive markets.

Each month, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) updates a graphic summary of USDA’s WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report. View the February summary here.

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) is looking forward to joining 22 U.S. wheat production, handling, milling and food processing organizations at an event in Washington, D.C., Feb. 14, 2019, to educate U.S. government officials about our industry. The event is sponsored by the National Wheat Foundation with a goal to demonstrate the breadth and influence of the wheat industry to the U.S. economy and food supply as well as its prominent place in the global food supply chain.

 

USW agrees that helping Administration officials, members of Congress and their staff understand the many challenges U.S. wheat growers have faced the past few years is very important. Our organization participated in a similar event a year ago that came at a critical time when Congress was debating the 2018 Farm Bill that was approved and implemented in December. That legislation renewed export market development programs administered by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service — programs that help USW continue its trade service and technical support activities with the world’s wheat buyers, millers and food processors.

Senator Pat Roberts of Kansas (center) with Phil McLain (right) of North Carolina representing the National Wheat Foundation and Gordon Stoner (left) of Montana representing the National Association of Wheat Growers at the first educational meeting on Capitol Hill in February 2018.

 

USW and many of our state wheat commission members work closely with the organizations participating in the event including public and private seed producers, crop input companies, farm equipment manufacturers, railroads, Wheat Quality Council, Wheat Foods Council, Wheat Marketing Center, North American Millers’ Association, American Bakers Association and Grocery Manufacturers Association.

 

The National Wheat Foundation (NWF) works to advance the U.S. wheat industry through strategic research, education and outreach collaborations. It is a non-profit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C., governed by a nine-member board of directors and managed by staff of the National Association of Wheat Growers, the NWF’s sole member.

 

Assistant Secretary of Agriculture Steve Censky (right) talks with USW Vice President of Communications Steve Mercer (left) at the 2018 educational event on Capitol Hill.

thumbnail

Recent news and highlights from around the wheat industry.

Quote of the Week:It is clear that we are at a tipping point for a growing number of producers. You can only lose money for so long. We’re at a vulnerable stage.” — Marc Knisely, CEO, AgCountry Farm Credit Services, Fargo, N.D., from an article in Politico, Feb. 6, 2019.

It is National Pizza Day in the United States on Feb. 9. More than 3 billion pizzas are served in U.S. restaurants and another 1 billion pizzas are sold frozen every year. Whether it is thin crust, Chicago-style, deep dish or anything in between, pizza is an American favorite – and that crust is ideal for holding your sauces and toppings because it is made with strong flour from U.S. hard red spring wheat! Enjoy your pizza and read more here.

Field to Market Strategic Plan. Field to Market: The Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture’s new Strategic Plan builds on more than a decade of Field to Market’s role as the leading organization committed to defining, measuring and advancing sustainability in U.S. crop production. A major premise of the new plan involves leveraging the collective influence of the group’s diverse membership to meet this challenge and drive continuous improvement in environmental outcomes. National Association of Wheat Grower’s (NAWG) Environmental Policy Advisor Keira Franz represents NAWG on the board of directions. Read Field to Market’s release here.

2019 National Wheat Yield Contest. The National Wheat Foundation (NWF) is now accepting grower enrollment for the 2019 National Wheat Yield Contest. The Contest includes winter wheat and spring wheat primary categories and dryland and irrigated subcategories. NFW is accepting winter wheat entries between April and May 15, 2019, and spring wheat entries between June 15 and Aug. 1, 2019. Learn more here.

Buhler-KSU Milling Short Courses. The IGP Institute offers milling courses this spring at its campus in Manhattan, Kan., including: The Buhler-KSU Expert Milling course, offered in English March 4 to 8, 2019, and in Spanish March 11 to 15, 2019; the Buhler-KSU Executive Milling course, offered in English May 20 to 24, 2019. Click here to register for these courses.

Pasta Production and Technology Course. The Northern Crops Institute is hosting a Pasta Production and Technology Course April 30 to May 2, 2019, at its facilities in Fargo, ND. This course introduces participants to the fundamental and applied aspects of pasta production and quality. Click here to learn more and register.

Subscribe to USW Reports. USW publishes a variety of reports and content that are available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts, the weekly Price Report and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online. Visit our page at https://www.facebook.com/uswheat for the latest updates, photos and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter at www.twitter.com/uswheatassoc and video stories at https://www.youtube.com/uswheatassociates.

Diplomacy is defined as the profession, activity or skill of managing international relations, typically by a country’s representatives abroad and, secondarily, the art of dealing with people in a sensitive and effective way.

While the local representatives of U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) are well versed in the art of diplomacy, twice every year USW sends leading U.S. farmers overseas as ambassadors to the people who import, mill and use the wheat they grow.

USW refers to these delegations as “Board Teams” because they typically include members of USW’s board of directors who are selected by state wheat commission members. Such “diplomatic” missions help strengthen customer relationships but also give the participants the chance to see how the organization and local USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) staff work together to represent U.S. farmers.

Bound this month for the Philippines, Singapore and Indonesia, the next Board Team includes: Joseph Anderson of Lewiston, Idaho, representing the Idaho Wheat Commission; Wally Powell of Condon, Ore., representing the Oregon Wheat Commission; Philip Volk, of York, N.D., representing the North Dakota Wheat Commission; and team leader Catherine Miller, Program and Planning Coordinator with USW.

The team will get orientated for their trip at the USW West Coast Office in Portland, Ore., including time with USW staff to learn more about the “nuts and bolts” of USW’s market development programs and what to expect when traveling overseas, the Wheat Marketing Center, Federal Grain Inspection Service, an export elevator and OMIC USA.

The vibrant milling and wheat foods industries in the Philippines and Indonesia will provide an excellent introduction to growing markets. For example, Indonesia is expected to become the world’s largest wheat importer in the future fueled by an average increase in flour consumption of about five percent per year. The team’s visit to the USW South Asian Regional Office in Singapore will also expose the participants to the hub of export market development activity in the region.

The team members will report back to USW directors later this year and, as regional leaders, to their wheat farmer neighbors.

Photos and comments from the team’s activities will be posted on USW’s Facebook page at www.facebook/uswheat.

Joe Anderson.

Wally Powell.

Phil Volk.

Catherine Miller.

thumbnail

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) is sad to share news that our former colleague Muyiwa Talabi passed away Feb. 5, 2019, in Lagos, Nigeria, after a prolonged illness.

“Muyiwa Talabi was employed by USW as the Marketing Coordinator for Nigeria from 1994 until his early retirement for health reasons in 2016,” said Regional Director for Sub-Saharan Africa Gerald Theus. “During his 22 years at USW, he worked closely and tirelessly with the USW Cape Town office in preparing the many market development programs targeting Nigeria. He opened the USW sub-office in Lagos in 2001 and managed its overall operations until his retirement. Working closely with the late Jim McKenna, USW Technical Milling Consultant for the Sub-Saharan Region, Muyiwa helped pave the way for U.S. farmers to become the dominant wheat suppliers to Nigeria and its 189 million people. It was under Muyiwa’s watch that hard red winter (HRW) become the preferred wheat in Nigeria and the largest HRW export market in the world for six years running. Muyiwa also recommended and implemented strategic market development programs that encouraged Nigerian flour mills to import all six classes of U.S. wheat.”

Muyiwa (second from right), joined a team of flour millers from Nigeria to Kansas and the IGP Institute in 2012. His work in Nigeria helped pave the way for U.S. farmers to become the dominant wheat suppliers to the west African nation.

Muyiwa brought a deep knowledge of Nigerian business and culture to USW. Educated in public administration and international relations at the University of Lagos, he spent two years with the Lagos government as an administrative officer, leaving to take a private sector position with Kingsway Stores, a supermarket chain owned by Unilever. Prior to attending university, Muyiwa served for two years in Nigeria’s National Youth Service Corps. For six years before joining USW, he worked for USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service as an agricultural specialist at the U.S. Consulate in Lagos.

2015 Nigerian Trade Delegation visit to Darrell Davis’s farm in South Dakota.

Everyone who knew and worked with Muyiwa can recall his consistently positive outlook and politeness in every interaction. He is survived by his wife and two sons. All of us at USW will miss him and we share our sincere condolences to his family and friends.

Muyiwa Talabi

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

thumbnail

By Claire Hutchins, USW Market Analyst

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) reports on global wheat supply and demand to its farmer directors at each of their board meetings. The directors meet in Washington, D.C., the week of Feb. 11 and the report will include the following update on marketing year 2018/19 wheat production, with one exception: the latest U.S. supply and demand data will be added after USDA issues catch-up reports on Feb. 8.

Canada. In its January “Principle Field Crops” report, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) tallied total 2018/19 Canadian wheat production at 31.8 million metric tons (MMT) (1.20 billion bushels), up 6 percent year over year. AAFC estimated the average yield for all wheat was 3.22 MT/ha (47.9 bu/acre). That is down 4 percent from 2017/18 though significantly offset by a 10 percent increase in harvested area to 9.90 million hectares (24.5 million acres). Production of all wheat excluding durum increased 4 percent from 2017/18 levels to 26.0 MMT due to increased harvested area, despite slightly lower yields in 2018/19.

Increased planted area helped push durum production up by 16 percent to 5.70 MMT, while quality decreased slightly. The Canadian Grains Commission (CGC) reported 85 percent of the Canadian Western Amber Durum (CWAD) samples tested graded No. 1 or No. 2 CWAD, compared to 91 percent in 2017/18. For Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS), CGC reported 56 percent of samples were No. 1 CWRS, compared to 78 percent in 2017/18. The percentage of samples tested as feed grade increased to 11 percent compared to last year’s 4 percent.

AAFC expects 2018/19 Canadian total wheat exports (including durum) to reach 22.9 MMT, up 5 percent from last year if realized.

European Union. Stratégie Grains (SG) forecasted total European Union (EU) wheat production at 136 MMT, down 11 percent year over year due to adverse weather conditions and decreased harvested area. Total EU harvested wheat area fell 2 percent year over year and total average yields for the region fell 9 percent. Common (non-durum) wheat production fell 10 percent from 2017/18 levels to 127 MMT due to significant weather challenges in Germany, France, and the Baltic countries.

Durum production fell 7 percent to 8.60 MMT in 2018/19, however this year’s total still sits slightly above the 5-year average of 8.50 MMT. SG noted that Italian durum yields were their lowest since 2010 at 3.09 MT/ ha (46.0 bu/acre), and the situation was exacerbated by a low-protein harvest that failed to match the excellent quality recorded in 2017. French durum yields were also the lowest they have been since 2011, not counting the disastrous harvest recorded in 2016.

SG expects total EU wheat exports to fall to 19.2 MMT, down 18 percent year over year, if realized due to increased animal feed consumption, following poor quality harvest years in Spain and France, and decreased overall supplies.

Australia. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) forecasted 2018/19 wheat production at 17.0 MMT, its lowest volume since 2007/08 due to extreme drought in New South Wales and Queensland. Wheat exports will decrease sharply year over year due to lower production and increased demand for domestic feed supplies. Domestic demand for feed wheat, due to forage pressure on livestock herds, is expected to increase 20 percent year over year to 5.0 MMT. ABARES estimates total Australian wheat exports will fall 31 percent below 2017/18 levels and 40 percent below the 5-year average, down to 10.6 MMT.

Argentina. Bolsa de Cereales, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, reported a record Argentinian harvest of 19.0 MMT, despite concerns in late December 2018 that yield and quality could suffer from hard rains and hail storms. Final average yields are right in line with the 5-year average at 3.10 MT/ha (46.2 bu/acre) but fall below last year’s 3.20 MT/ha (47.7 bu/acre). Total production is up 10 percent from 2017/18 with increased planted and harvested area, which offset lower yields. Planted area increased 9 percent year over year to 6.0 million hectares (14.8 million acres). USDA expects 2018/19 Argentina wheat exports to total 14.2 MMT, 15 percent above last year’s export volume and 40 percent above the 5-year average, if realized.

Black Sea. SG estimated Russian wheat production at 72.0 MMT, down 18 percent from last year’s 85.0 MMT due to decreased harvested area and notably lower yields across the board. Russia’s harvested area dropped by 5 percent year over year to 26.3 million hectares (65.0 million acres) and average yields decreased by 12 percent to 2.73 MT/ha (40.6 bu/acre). Most significant yield losses were reported in Russia’s southeastern Volga region, which fell 33 percent below last year’s figures. Though Russian production fell significantly below 2017/18 levels, this year’s 72.0 MMT still lands 3 percent higher than the 5-year average of 70.0 MMT. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture readjusted its 2018/19 total wheat export estimates to 36.0 MMT, a 12 percent drop from 2017/18 export levels, if realized. As of late January 2019, IKAR reported total Russian exports at 26.2 MMT, or 73 percent of the country’s total expected export volume. SG estimates that the influence of Russia’s decreased production and exports will bolster global wheat prices until the start of MY 2019/20.

The State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU) estimated the 2018/19 wheat harvest at 24.6 MMT, right in line with the 5-year average, but down 8 percent from last year’s record harvest due to decreased yields which offset increased harvested area. SG reports Ukraine’s 2018/19 average yield at 3.72 MT/ha (55.3 bu/acre), 7 percent below last year’s record of 4.16 MT/ ha (61.9 bu/acre). Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture tallied total wheat exports, as of late January 2019, at 11.2 MMT. Last year, the Ukrainian government issued a memorandum establishing a 2018/19 export ceiling at 16.0 MMT, its lowest export volume since 2014/15, if realized.

SG estimated Kazakh wheat production at 14.3 MMT, down slightly from last year due to decreased harvested area. However, the Kazakh Agriculture Ministry estimated the country will export a record 9.0 MMT in 2018/19, 1.20 MMT more than left the country last year. If realized, this year’s total Black Sea exports from all three countries will amount to 61.0 MMT, down 12 percent from last year, but still 11 percent above the 5-year average.