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The U.S. Wheat Associates’ (USW) Policy Team is busy preparing to host a Japan Trade Team in Washington, D.C. this month. It’s an opportunity for USW Vice President of Policy Dalton Henry and Director of Trade Policy Peter Laudeman to meet face-to-face with valuable customers of U.S. wheat and discuss the U.S. wheat industry.

Last month, Laudeman joined a coalition of U.S. agricultural representatives at the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Thirteenth WTO Ministerial Conference (MC13) in Abu Dhabi. Trade officials from across the world attended the event to review the functioning of the multilateral trading system and to take action on the future work of the WTO.

In this short video, Laudeman provides an update on the USW Policy Team as the second quarter of 2024 takes shape . . . .

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With U.S. hard red winter (HRW) and hard white (HW) wheat moving into its crucial vegetative state, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) and its state wheat commission member organizations have started weekly conference calls to share wheat condition reports. Overall, wheat in Central and Southern Plains entered 2024 in better condition than compared to the prior three years. Although recent weather has turned warm, windy, and dry, industry participants remain optimistic for the 2024 crop.

The most recent 2024 USDA Crop Progress report rated 56% of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, up significantly from 27% last year. As of April 8, 6% of winter wheat is headed in the Southern Plains. USDA reported as of April 9, an estimated 18% of all U.S. winter wheat production is within an area experiencing drought.

Latest HRW Wheat Conditions

As usual, Texas leads the way in crop progress with 27% of its HRW and soft red winter wheat headed. At 44% good to excellent, conditions remain encouraging.

In Central Oklahoma, wheat progress continued to benefit from recent rains with 55% at the jointing stage. Good to excellent wheat condition in the state was 68% as of April 7. USW Chair Michael Peters farms northwest of Oklahoma City and reported this week that the condition of his HRW wheat varies from excellent to “just okay.”

Conditions in Kansas are also variable with 49% rated good to excellent. Jason Ochs farms in far western Kansas and recently told Kansas Wheat that it was a nice change to get a good stand right from the start last fall. Yet he also said his topsoil is dry.

“We missed the last three of four moisture chances, so optimism is going down a little bit,” Ochs said. “As of now, it looks like we are going to raise above-average yields. I don’t know how you cannot be a little excited about that.”

Drought has eased for the 2024 U.S. winter wheat crop. On April 18, 2023, 50% of winter wheat production was within an area experiencing drought.

Mixed Bag in Colorado

High winds in eastern Colorado have dried out fields and hurt winter wheat stands.

“Overall things are looking better than they did a year ago at this time,” said Madison Andersen, Colorado Wheat Administrative Committee Director of Communications and Policy. “However, it is a critical time for moisture, especially after the high winds and warm temperatures we have seen the last two weeks.”

In Nebraska, good to excellent winter wheat was at 68% as of April 7, but with the area’s dry and windy conditions, industry representatives say more rain is needed to make the crop. And in Wyoming’s southeastern region, USDA estimates that 91% of the wheat is in fair to good condition. That is up from 63% at the same time in 2023 and from the five-year average for this date of 74% fair to good.

USW will start publishing its 2024 weekly Harvest Reports after the combines start to roll in Texas. Follow the reports, posted every Friday, online here, or sign up here to have Harvest Reports emailed to you.

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News and Information from Around the World Wheat Industry

 

Speaking of Wheat

Consumers and the private sector are increasingly interested in food that is grown in a sustainable, climate-smart way, creating a substantial market opportunity. And, during the past three years, USDA has emerged as a leader in advancing climate-smart agriculture to mitigate and adapt to global climate change.” – USDA Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Alexis M. Taylor writing on “A Century of Agricultural Trade” for the U.S. Sustainability Alliance, of which U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) is a member. Read more here

Winter Wheat Looking Better This Year

Wheat growing in rows

Winter wheat on April 1, 2024, is in much better condition overall compared to the same time in 2023.

USDA in its first weekly 2024 Crop Progress report suggests U.S. winter wheat is starting the growing season in significantly better shape than it was last year. On April 1, USDA estimated all winter wheat condition at 56% good to excellent, up from a decade-plus low of 28% at the first estimate of 2023. Compared to 36% in 2023, this year 11% of winter wheat was rated poor to very poor on April 1. Read more from Progressive Farmer/DTN here.

Welcoming NAWG Communications Manager

The National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) welcomes Elizabeth Rivera as its new Director of Communications and Partnerships. Elizabeth comes to NAWG with excellent experience on Capitol Hill. She earned a bachelor’s of science degree from the University of Oregon. NAWG is the primary policy representative in Washington D.C. for wheat growers, working to ensure a better future for America’s growers, the industry and the general public. Read more here.

Wheat Production 75 Years Ago

High Plains Journal magazine recently published an article that examines “The Evolution of the Wheat Industry Over the Past 75 Years” by Lacey Vilhauer. Noting that USDA has collected data on every U.S. wheat crop since 1918, the article looks back at the 1949 Kansas crop, when farmers seeded 16,244,000 acres (6.57 hectares and 100% more than the 2023 Kansas seeded area) and the average yield was 11 bushels per acre. The pre-Green Revolution crop in 1949 also stood about 1.4 meters tall. Read more here.

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.

 

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On March 28, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its yearly Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grains Stocks reports. The reports provide crucial insights to U.S. wheat importers as we enter the concluding months of the 2023/24 marketing year and look ahead to the 2024 harvest. This article will analyze USDA’s recent reports on wheat planting and stocks and their implications as we look ahead to 2024/25.

Seeding Less

USDA estimates put the total U.S. wheat area at 47.5 million acres (19.2 million hectares), marking a 4% reduction from the previous year.

Breaking down the estimates by class, the area for winter wheat fell by 7% to 34.4 million acres (13.9 million hectares), with Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat plantings decreasing by 5% on the year, Soft Red Winter (SRW) falling by 15%, and white wheat (winter and spring) decreasing by 2%. Meanwhile, the Hard Red Spring (HRS) area is expected to increase by 2%, while durum may rise by up to 22%.

Bar chart showing seeded area of 5 wheat classes between 15/16 and 24/25.

The 2024 wheat area is forecast at 47.5 million acres (10.2 million hectares), down 4% from 2023 but 500,000 acres (202,350 hectares) higher than the USDA Outlook Forum Estimates. The area consists of 24.3 million acres of HRW (approximately 9.83 million hectares), 6.26 million acres for SRW (about 2.53 million hectares), and 4.2 million acres of white wheat (roughly 1.7 million hectares). The HRS area is projected to reach 10.7 million acres (around 4.33 million hectares), while durum is estimated at 2.0 million acres (approximately 0.81 million hectares). The wheat area is forecast at 47.5 million acres (10.2 million hectares), down 4% from 2023 but 500,000 acres (202,350 hectares) higher than the USDA Outlook Forum Estimates. The area consists of 24.3 million acres of HRW (approximately 9.83 million hectares), 6.26 million acres for SRW (about 2.53 million hectares), and 4.2 million acres of white wheat (roughly 1.7 million hectares). The HRS area is projected to reach 10.7 million acres (around 4.33 million hectares), while durum is estimated at 2.0 million acres (approximately 0.81 million hectares).

When the 2023 U.S. winter wheat crop was seeded in 2022, income potential looked favorable, with prices still elevated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As a result, total seeded wheat area for 2023 was up 8% from the prior year. With current prices falling in line with pre-war trends, and input prices lagging, profit margins have tightened, placing additional pressure on farmers and driving the downward shift in acres. Although the 2024 wheat area is down from last year, the overall area remains 2% higher than the five-year average and represents the second-largest area since the 2018/19 season.

Though the spring wheat and durum is not yet planted, favorable prices for durum relative to spring wheat may incentivize producers to substitute durum acres for HRS, particularly in non-traditional durum growing areas. As of April 3, the average country elevator bid for durum sits at $9.88/bu, a significant jump from an average bid of $5.92 for HRS. The favorable price spreads may push durum area as high as 2.0 million acres (810,000 hectares). If realized this would be the largest durum area since 2018/19.

Crop Competition

Profitability continues to drive crop competition, but an increasing reliance on crop rotations is moderating the impact. Farmers use rotations to reduce price risk and control disease cycles, making them less inclined to make significant acreage adjustments based on price alone.

According to USDA’s estimates, soybean area is anticipated to rise 3% to 86.5 million acres (approximately 34.99 million hectares), aligning with traders’ expectations. Meanwhile, the estimated corn area has decreased 5% to 90.0 million acres (about 36.42 million hectares), falling short of the anticipated 91.7 million acres (226.6 million hectares). However, when considering grain and oilseed acres in the context of all principal field crops, the share of acreage planted with wheat, corn, and soybeans remains relatively stable. Wheat and corn account for 15% and 29% of all acres, consistent with the ten-year average, while the proportion of acres planted with soybeans sits about 1% above the long-term average at 28%.

Line chart shows the number of acres planted to corn, soybeans and wheat annually from 15/16 to 24/25.

The combined area planted with corn, soy, and wheat decreased by 2% to 224 million acres (90.6 million hectares), down from the near-record 228.1 million acres (92.3 million hectares) from the previous year. Even so, the share of acreage planted with corn, soybeans, and wheat remains in line with the five- and ten-year averages. Source: USDA Prospective Planting s Report

Stocks: Up But Still Tight

Also released on March 28, the quarterly USDA Grain Stocks report put total wheat stocks at 29.6 MMT, as of March 1. On-farm stocks were estimated at 7.4 MMT, up 16% from last year, while off-farm stocks came in at 22.2 MMT, up 14% from the year prior. The increased stock levels bolster USDA’s ending stocks estimate of 18.3 MMT, marking an 18% rise from 2023/24 and the first increase since 2015/16. Increased ending stocks helps relieve short term pressure on the U.S. balance sheet.

Moreover, even as planted area is forecast to decrease, the prospects for increased yields and greater wheat production are optimistic as drought conditions improve across the U.S. Southern Plains. The first USDA Crop Progress report of the year indicates that 56% of winter wheat is in good to excellent condition, a significant improvement from 28% at the same time last year. Increased production will help loosen the U.S. balance sheet and diminish supply related price pressures.

Bar chart shows the annual U.S. wheat ending stocks level from 14/15 to 23/24.

On-farm stocks were estimated at 7.4 MMT, up 16% from last year, while off-farm stocks came in at 22.2 MMT, up 14% from last year. The increased stock levels help confirm higher ending stocks for 2023/24. As exports remain lackluster and domestic demand steady, the USDA ending stocks are expected to grow 18% to 18.3 MMT. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

Nevertheless, underlying tightness remains. U.S. stocks still sit at one of the lowest levels since 2013/14, and with global wheat consumption surpassing production, the global stocks-to-use ratio (excluding China) has dropped to 20%, the lowest point since the 2007/08 season.

More to Come

With a looser balance sheet in the short term tempered by decreased acres, the recent 2024 crop reports provided a mixed sentiment. It is also important to note that USDA’s estimates are based on surveys of U.S. farmers current intensions and may be subject to change as planting ramps up in the coming weeks. With spring wheat planting only 1% completed and winter wheat 4% headed, a definitive statement regarding the 2024 crop is yet to be written.

Moving forward, the May 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) will provide further insights into the 2024/25 marketing year and the July 2024 WASDE will give the initial by-class wheat production estimates. Also, make sure to follow the weekly and monthly reports from USW and USDA on crop conditions, harvest, and production. As always, U.S. Wheat Associates remains committed to offering information and support as we transition into the 2024/25 marketing year.

By USW Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford.

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Response to U.S. Wheat Associates’ (USW) Stories of Stewardship video series is coming from near and far – by farmers here at home who grow wheat and other crops, and by customers of U.S. wheat scattered around the globe.

The reaction is consistent: It’s refreshing to hear from farmers and learn how they help feed the world while also working hard to care for the land.

All Six Episodes Available

The series, which launched in early January with an all-encompassing Episode 1, was followed by episodes featuring five farm families in five different states. Tom Cannon, of Blackwell, Okla.; Ben and Stephanie Bowsher, of Waynesfield, Ohio; Nick Jorgensen, of Ideal, S.D.; Art Schultheis, of Colton, Wash.; and Aaron Kjelland, of Park River, N.D. each told the stories of their family farms over the period of 10 weeks. Each episode was launched on the USW website and on USW’s social media platforms – FacebookX, and LinkedIn – where all six episodes were shared hundreds of times. The videos will remain on the USW website indefinitely.

Sub-titled versions of each episode have been produced in several languages so that USW’s overseas offices can share with customers during meetings, and at events and trade shows.

USW plans to publish written stories to go with each video episode in the near future. It will also continue sharing new stories of how U.S. wheat farmers make efforts to maintain their land for the next generation of farmers.

 

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The 2024 USW Vietnam-China Board Team (left to right): USW Secretary-Treasurer Jim Pellman (North Dakota), Jennifer Schmidt (Maryland), Mark Jossund (Minnesota) and USW West Coast Office Assistant Director Luke Muller.

The 2024 USW Vietnam-China Board Team returned to the U.S. on March 30. Pictured (left to right): USW Secretary-Treasurer Jim Pellman (North Dakota), Jennifer Schmidt (Maryland), Mark Jossund (Minnesota) and USW West Coast Office Assistant Director Luke Muller.

Wheat farmers from Maryland, Minnesota and North Dakota toured flour mills and bakeries in Vietnam, getting a close look at how U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) works with customers to promote U.S. wheat. The group also traveled to Guangzhou, China, where it met with grain traders and attended the 40th anniversary of the Sino American Baking School (SABO).

Many Important Stops for Farmers

A lot of ground was covered on the week-long mission – literally and figuratively.

“Vietnam and China are two very distinct markets. The team saw the different ways different classes of U.S. wheat are being used by our customers. The farmers were also able to witness the strong relationships USW has built with key industry leaders in both places,” said USW West Coast Office Assistant Director Luke Muller. Muller led the USW 2024 Vietnam and China Board Team.

Working close with the millers and bakers allows USW to strengthen those relationships even more, Muller explained.

“There is a lot of interaction,” Muller said. “The farmers were able to pick up on that.”

Maryland, Minnesota and North Dakota

Making up the team were farmers representing various classes of U.S. wheat. USW Secretary-Treasurer Jim Pellman of McClusky, North Dakota; Jennifer Schmidt of Sudlersville, Maryland; and Mark Jossund of Moorhead, Minnesota, began the journey by meeting at the USW office in Portland. They then attended a Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS) briefing on grain grading. Before departing for Vietnam, the team toured the United Grain export elevator in Vancouver, Washington.

More details of specific activities the team participated in while in Vietnam and China – including special attention to the Sino-American Baking School (SABS) anniversary event – will follow in upcoming editions of the Wheat Letter. A video of the trip will also be shared.

The team toured flour mills and bakeries in Vietnam and China. The trip allowed wheat farmers to meet and interact with their customers in both countries.

The team toured flour mills and bakeries in Vietnam and China. The trip allowed wheat farmers to meet and interact with their customers in both countries.

Mills, Bakeries and Customers

Meanwhile, some highlights of the trip:

  • The team visited Vimaflour. It was the first mill opened in northern Vietnam and one of the largest in the country. The team also visited Vietnam Flour Mill, which is part of Wilmar, the largest regional miller in Southeast Asia and China.
  • Team members were able to explore a small, family-owned Bahn Mi bakery in Hanoi, Vietnam. “Bread loaves have a very short shelf life and can only serve the population in close proximity to them,” Muller explained. “These independent bakeries have benefited from the technical servicing USW offers. USW and local millers have shown how blending in up to 30% U.S. dark northern spring (DNS) wheat can help with loaf strength for the overnight fermentation process they utilize.”
  • The team learned how USW Baking Consultant Roy Chung has worked with Libra Biscuit Factory. The business has grown quickly and now exports its cookies and biscuits to more than 20 countries. Some of the cookies sold by Libra are made with 100% U.S. soft white (SW) wheat. Among other things, Chung has helped the company’s bakers develop products and is currently helping them formulate a new soda cracker.
  • In China, the team met with Huaren Trading Company, where conversation was focused on U.S. wheat farmers and the U.S. supply chain compared to competitors.
  • The team also toured Philip’s moon cake factory, which produces over 600,000 moon cakes a day during its peak production.

Stay tuned for more stories from the trip in upcoming editions of the Wheat Letter.

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As U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) President Vince Peterson often says, at any given hour of the day there is someone, somewhere, talking about the quality, reliability and value of U.S. wheat. Wheat Letter is sharing some of the ways USW was working in the third quarter of marketing year 2023/24 to promote U.S. wheat in an ever more complex world grain market.

Trade, Technical Service in South Korea

In January 2024, USW Seoul Country Director Channy Bae and Food/Bakery Technologist Shin Hak (David) Oh carried out trade and technical service to flour mills in western Korea.

U.S. soft white wheat kernels

Soft white (SW) wheat.

Channy Bae shared an early forecast of U.S. and world wheat supply and demand with the millers. David Oh also reported on the results of a 2023 short course at the Wheat Market Center demonstrating the positive performance of alternative U.S. wheat flour blends to local standard flours. One of those alternatives, using competitively priced U.S. soft white (SW) to replace Australian soft white wheat in noodle applications. The USW representatives also presented data on the cost and performance advantages of U.S. hard red spring (HRS) and hard red winter (HRW) flour blends for bread products compared to Canadian spring wheat.

Optimizing HRW Wheat Performance in Colombia

Also in January, USW Santiago and a flour milling consultant worked with three milling companies in Colombia that had purchased 12.5% protein (12% moisture basis) HRW that the U.S. government had donated to a South American non-governmental organization (NGO). The NGO used proceeds from the wheat sale for local economic development projects. The millers each found opportunities to use the higher protein flour in blends while benefiting from USW’s technical milling support. The activity built a base of new knowledge about the range of U.S. HRW quality and USW Santiago will monitor continued interest from the Colombian millers.

U.S. hard red winter wheat.

Milling Management Seminars in Southeast Asia

USW’s regional office in Singapore planned and conducted milling workshop and technical service visits focused on “milling core competency” to meet with representatives from mills in the Philippines and Vietnam. Three one-day workshops featured Associate Director Shawn Thiele and Grain Quality & Feed Manufacturing Specialist Carlos Campabadal with the IGP Institute, Manhattan, Kan.

These consultants presented information on mill key performance indicators (KPIs), blending practices, storage, and mill maintenance among other issues millers had identified during USW-sponsored activities in 2023. In total 169 participants from 30 mills attended the workshops held in Ho Chi Minh City, Cebu, and Manila. Additionally, two participants from a mill in Thailand attended the Manila Seminar.

Providing assistance to millers in this important market will help them continue to recognize the value of using high quality U.S. wheat classes.

IGP Assistant Director Shawn Thiele leads the lecture session on the first day of the IGP-KSU Flour Milling Course for State Administrators.

Shawn Thiele, IGP Institute

Milling Donated Hard White Sample in South Africa

Keeping Shawn Thiele busy, USW Sub-Sahara African regional office in Cape Town, sponsored his technical assistance helping a large South Africa company mill a sample of U.S. hard white (HW) wheat that USW made available with funding from the Agricultural Trade Promotion program. Opportunities exist in South Africa to develop demand for this new-to-the-market HW because this class of wheat offers higher extraction rates while minimizing ash content for certain types of flour. Currently U.S. wheat sales to South Africa include HRW and soft red winter (SRW) wheat.

U.S. Wheat Market Development Planning

USW’s 13 overseas and two domestic offices also conducted their annual marketing planning over the past three months. Annual investments in USW’s work by 17 state wheat commission member organizations qualify USW to apply for program funds from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). FAS cooperators like USW must submit an annual marketing plan called the Unified Export Strategy (UES). The plan evaluates past efforts, documents progress against specific goals, and suggests future wheat export market development activities for all markets. FAS will evaluate the current plan and will announce its funding awards for 2025 activities later in 2024.

 

 

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USW South Korea Country Director Dongchan "Channy" Bae presents a three-minute briefing on USW's 50 years of work in South Korea. Bae was participating in a USDA's Agribusiness Trade MIssion led by U.S. Ag Undersecretary Alexis Taylor.

USW South Korea Country Director Dongchan “Channy” Bae presents a three-minute briefing on USW’s 50 years of work in South Korea. Bae was participating in a USDA’s Agribusiness Trade Mission led by Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Alexis Taylor.

Given three minutes to summarize 50 years of work, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) South Korea Country Director Dongchan “Channy” Bae effectively shared how building partnerships, promoting quality and educating customers has helped USW develop one of the top and most promising markets for U.S. wheat exports.

He could have spoken for hours on USW’s history in Korea.

But Bae was participating in a lightning round-style discussion sparked by USDA Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Alexis Taylor, who led a USDA Agribusiness Trade Mission to South Korea March 24-28. A series of meetings in Seoul included one roundtable session where Taylor asked USW and other U.S. agricultural groups on the trip to describe efforts, challenges and successes in the Korean market.

A Quick by Thorough Update

“Each organization was given three minutes to update Undersecretary Taylor on the market and Channy did an outstanding job condensing all of USW’s work in Korea with a very a clear and concise message,” said USW Vice President of Overseas Operations Mike Spier, who joined USW Vice President of Planning Jennifer Sydney in representing USW on the trade mission. Oregon Wheat Commission CEO Amanda Hoey was also on the trip representing the U.S. wheat industry.

Bae explained to Taylor that South Korea is the fifth largest importer of U.S. wheat, accounting for 1.2 million metric tons (MT) in the most recent marketing year. The U.S. has a 48% market share, followed by Australian (44%), and Canadian (7%.) With current marketing year commercial sales to Korea running 12% ahead of last years pace, the U.S. share could reach 50% in 2024.

Years of Work in the Market

Knowing the market and adapting to changes has been key, he added.

“Currently, South Korea faces many challenges such as low birth rates, economic slowdown, and geopolitical tensions,” Bae said. “Nevertheless, wheat flour consumption is gradually increasing, replacing the country’s traditional staple, rice. Furthermore, Korean food companies are expanding to the overseas market by utilizing the popularity of K-Pop, and K-drama. Especially, exports of instant noodles and frozen dough for bakeries are on the rise.”

Left to right: Channy Bae, USW Vice President of Overseas Operations Mike Spier and Oregon Wheat Commission CEO Amanda Hoey.

Left to right: Channy Bae, USW Vice President of Overseas Operations Mike Spier and Oregon Wheat Commission CEO Amanda Hoey.

Partners Helping Partners

USW celebrated its 50th anniversary of its office in Seoul last May.

“We take pride in our contributions to the development of Korea’s flour milling, baking, and noodle industries,” Bae told Taylor. “To promote high-quality U.S. wheat and a transparent export system to Korean millers, we organize various educational programs and seminars on purchasing, quality assurance, and production techniques. Additionally, we support the research programs for noodle and baking companies through professional institutions in the United States. We believe all these activities enhance the value of U.S. wheat and strengthen farmers’ profitability.”

Korean Influence Important

Hoey pointed out that Bae also shared with Taylor the impact of Korea’s influence in other markets in Asia.

“He explained how opportunities are presented because of the popularity of Korean trends in other countries,” said Hoey. “Food trends especially are shaping and growing demand for U.S. wheat in markets that follow trends in Korea. That was a message also shared by USDA staff after the roundtable.”

Bae ended his three-minute briefing by thanking USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) for its support of USW’s work in Korea.

Ag Groups Learn From Each Other

Along with USW, USDA’s agribusiness trade mission to South Korea included a delegation comprised of 47 other agribusiness and farm organizations, and five state departments of agriculture. The trade mission included bilateral meetings with Korean industry and government officials, along with a look at retail promotions in Seoul featuring U.S. products.

“The interaction with the other agriculture groups, especially groups that are USDA cooperators like U.S. Wheat Associates, was valuable,” said Sydney. “We see some of these other groups from time to time, but getting to hear their strategies or the issues they face in the same markets we work in was very interesting.”

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News and Information from Around the World Wheat Industry

Speaking of Wheat

“It’s not what we did yesterday, but it’s the knowledge we accumulate today to make us better understand how to deal with (the market) and make more sales tomorrow.” – Gary Millershaski, Kansas wheat farmer, on his interactions with millers and wheat buyers during the recent USW Sub-Saharan Africa Board Team trade mission to South Africa and Nigeria. Read more here.

Minnesota Wheat Hires Sorenson as New Executive Director

The Minnesota Wheat Research & Promotion Council (MWRPC) and Minnesota Association of Wheat Growers (MAWG) have hired Brian Sorenson as executive director of Minnesota Wheat. Sorenson was raised on a wheat, barley and sugar beet farm near Fisher, Minn., and joins Minnesota Wheat after working as a program manager with Northern Crops Institute since 2018. “We’re thrilled to have Brian join our team,” MWRPC Chair Tim Dufault said. “His background and passion for agriculture make him a perfect fit for the goals of Minnesota Wheat and Minnesota wheat producers.” Sorenson, who earned a Master of Science degree in cereal chemistry from North Dakota State University, said he is looking forward to the role and the duties that come with it. “It’s very important that our producers have access to improved wheat varieties and cutting-edge farming practices for wheat to be a profitable crop in their rotation, but also to provide the quality and value expected by millers and bakers around the world,” said Sorenson, who begins his position on April 2. Read more here.

Brian Sorenson

Brian Sorenson will begin his new role as Executive Director of Minnesota Wheat on April 2.

Martin to Retire From NAEGA on March 31

Gary Martin is retiring March 31 as President and CEO of the North American Export Grain Association (NAEGA). Martin, who has been in the role since June 2000, has also served as the President of the International Grain Trade Coalition. His many industry leadership activities include service with the U.S. Food and Agriculture Dialog for Trade, the Canada-U.S. Grain and Seed Trade Task Group and the Board of Directors of Soy Export Sustainability LLC. Alejandra Castillo will succeed Martin as NAEGA President and CEO. Castillo brings 15 years of industry experience having worked previously as regional director for South Asia based in Singapore and India. Most recently she served as director of global programs in Washington, D.C. for the U.S. Grains Council (USGC) and before that, worked in trade execution for Cargill.

Gary Martin (left) is retiring at President and CEO of the North American Export Grain Association.

Gary Martin (left) is retiring as President and CEO of the North American Export Grain Association on March 31.

Number of U.S. Wheat Farms Declined 40% in Last 20 years

Since 2002, the total number of wheat farms in the U.S. fell by more than 40%, according to a new USDA report. The number of wheat farms went from 169,528 in 2002 to 97,014 in 2022. Also, “wheat production is down slightly, but has been variable year to year,” USDA reported. “Annual wheat production ranged from about 1.6 billion bushels in marketing year 2002/2003 to as much as 2.5 billion bushels in 2008/2009. Notably wheat production has not topped 2.0 billion bushels from 2017/2018 to 2023/2024.” Much of the decline in U.S. wheat production has been the result of lower area harvested, which dropped from 56 million acres in marketing year 2008/2009 to a low of 35.5 million acres in 2022/2023, the report notes. Area harvested has remained below 40 million acres from marketing year 2017/2018 through 2023/2024. Read more here.

WSU Wheat Breeders Put Royalties to Work

Established more than a decade ago, Washington State University’s (USW) licensed wheat royalties are helping improve farm facilities, train the next generation of scientists and growers, and, for the first time this year, enhancing grower assessments to address wider research priorities, the Washington Grain Commission (WGC) reports. “Royalties have become a critical source of support for public wheat breeding programs,” Rich Koenig, chair of the recently established WSU Grain Royalty Advisory Committee, said. In May of 2012, the WGC supported a WSU-sponsored initiative to license its future wheat variety releases. Working with the commission, WSU established a royalty of 2 cents per pound of certified seed sold. That charge is in the low-to-middle range compared to similar wheat-releasing institutions. Read more here.

U.S. Miller Surveys Consumers on Purchase Trends

In a report titled, “Trend to Table,” Ardent Mills identified key trends in purchasing decisions through a survey of adult U.S. consumers. The U.S. flour miller surveyed more than 10,000 consumers over the age of 18 for their thoughts on food purchasing decisions. Trends include an increased focus on sustainability, traceability, and nutrition. The company has also noted a growing interest in plant-based and specialty grains, as well as a shift towards locally sourced ingredients. Read more here.

 

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.

 

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Over the last year, world wheat prices have trended steadily lower, continuing their fall from the highs hit in May of 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. Ample wheat stocks from Russia and record exports flowing from the Black Sea continue to weigh on global wheat prices.

The average world FOB price has decreased $32/MT from the start of 2024 and is nearly $255/MT less than the May 2022 high, according to AgriCensus price data. Although the war still rages in Ukraine, the war risk premium has eroded in the market, allowing prices to revert to pre-war trends. The following will outline the current price situation and highlight factors to watch as wheat markets align with long-term trends.

This chart shows how export prices for wheat from several suppliers spiked following the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine but have now returned to long-term trends.

World FOB prices have reverted to pre-war levels, weighed by low-priced exports flowing from the Black Sea. The average world FOB price has decreased $32/MT from the start of 2024 and is close to $255/MT below the May 2022 high. Source: AgriCensus.

A Return to Pre-War Levels

Although there is a sharp contrast between the current downward trend in global wheat markets and the volatility observed over the last year, wheat prices have fallen more in line with long-term trends. Current world FOB prices hover between $200 and $300/MT on average, in line with price levels from 2018 to 2020. Although the spread between origins is still larger than pre-war averages, the spread has narrowed over the last year. According to AgriCensus and U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report data, in Jan. 2023, U.S. soft red winter (SRW) wheat sold for $347.96/MT FOB, while Russian wheat (12.5% on a dry moisture basis) was loaded at $308/MT FOB, a nearly $40/MT spread. Jumping ahead to March 21, 2024, U.S. SRW is quoted at $216.24/MT FOB, while Russian FOB indications sit at $204/MT, down to a $12/MT spread, similar to spreads seen throughout 2019 and 2020.

Factors to Watch

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) is monitoring several factors at work in the global wheat market. Even before Russia’s invasion in Feb. 2022, global price levels were beginning to rise. Wheat use jumped 5% to a record 787 MMT in 2020/21, exceeding production by 14.0 MMT. The March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates still put the 2023/24 global wheat consumption 11.0 MMT above production, further tightening stocks. Likewise, the stocks-to-use ratio, excluding China, is forecast to tighten to 20% in 2023/24, the lowest since 2007/08, while early estimates from the International Grains Council predict a decrease in global ending stocks to 57.0 MMT in 2024/25.

This bar and line chart shows the relationship between world wheat production and use is on an upward trend from 1999 through 2024.

From 2014/15 to 2017/18, world wheat production exceeded consumption, increasing world ending stocks to a record 297.6 MMT in 2019/20 and a stocks-to-use ratio of 25%. In 2018/19, global wheat consumption began to outpace production, eroding ending stocks and tightening global balance sheets. Source: USDA PSD.

Looking ahead to marketing year 2024/25 and beyond, a continued decline in world-ending stocks and the tightening stock-to-use ratio may have a bullish influence on price trends. However, in the short term, global wheat markets remain well-supplied, and the ongoing flow of wheat from Russia, the Black Sea, and the EU weighs on prices.

This line chart from USDA shows the relationship between crop and input price indexes suggest farmer profit margins are much lower today compared to 2000.

At the 2024 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer indicated that output prices are falling faster than input prices, leading to tighter margins, and reducing profitability for U.S. farmers. Source: USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum.

While decreasing wheat prices benefits importers, the current situation poses unique challenges for U.S. wheat farmers. According to Seth Meyer, USDA Chief Economist, input price trends lag as the output prices fall, resulting in tighter profit margins and reduced sector profitability for wheat and other row crops. Tighter margins put additional pressure on U.S. farmers, and long-term profitability can influence production trends and planting decisions. Nevertheless, U.S. farmers planted wheat before the war and will continue to produce a range of high-quality wheat classes as markets revert to pre-war norms, ensuring a reliable supply of wheat for the world’s importers.

By Tyllor Ledford, USW Market Analyst