Wheat Letter Blog Archive - Page 6 of 104

2024 Wheat Tour Sees Higher Yield Potential Amid Variable Conditions

Even with variable crop conditions, the 2024 Wheat Quality Council (WQC) Hard Winter Wheat Tour has estimated a total weighted average yield of 46.5 bushels per acre (bu/a) across its annual tour routes in Kansas with swings into southern Nebraska and northern Oklahoma. The tour yield estimate is up significantly from its 2023 estimate of 30.0 bu/a.

Valuable Insight

Sixty-nine participants this year from government, universities, media, grain trade, millers, bakers, and farms stopped at 449 fields to evaluate yield potential and crop conditions.

Photo shows Peter Laudeman in a wheat field with a yardstick during the 2024 Wheat Tour.

USW Director of Trade Policy Peter Laudeman.

“The tour has provided valuable insight into this year’s crop,” said Peter Laudeman, Director of Trade Policy, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) who participated in the tour along with his colleague Luke Muller, Assistant Director, West Coast Office. “Overall, the crop is looking stronger than the last two, uncharacteristically low production years, but it remains to be seen how far above that bar we will get when harvest is complete.”

Largely because of continuing short rainfall, the crop is developing at a faster pace than normal. Experienced crop observers and farmers participating in the wheat tour believe harvest in south-central Kansas could start in early June. That is up to 10 days ahead of average.

“The tour scouts reported wide variability depending on planting dates, moisture, and impact from pests and disease,” Laudeman said, illustrated by the two wheat fields seen at the top of this page. “Stripe rust was notably present across a large swath of northern Kansas and southern Nebraska counties where there is still a window for applying disease control products to limit yield loss. Wheat Streak Mosaic, a viral disease, is another concern to assess. We also saw freeze damage in many fields in southwest and south-central Kansas on the second day.”

Derek Sawyer, who farms near McPherson in east-central Kansas, told Kansas Wheat that although there have been multiple stresses across the state, “we are still looking at a decent crop. That is a testament to the wheat breeders and researchers and the work they have done.”

In 2024, farmers in the wheat tour area will harvest more fields compared to high abandonment in the severe 2023 drought.

“Last year, we only harvested about 200 of the 1,400 acres that we had planted, and those did about 20 bushels an acre,” Hoisington, Kan., farmer Dean Stoskopf told DTN/Progressive Farmer. “So far this year, we’ve still got all our wheat. Some is decent. Some is so-so.”

Tour organizer and WQC Executive Director Dave Green told DTN/Progressive Farmer that through the second day of the tour the crop looked better than drought conditions would have indicated.

“It seemed like, ‘Yes, we certainly need rain in a lot of areas,’ but I was surprised how not every field was drought-stressed and really looking like it’s in trouble,” Green said.

“I would really emphasize how crucial the spotty rain showers the past couple weeks were for those farms fortunate to receive them,” Luke Muller said. “The heat units and moisture in the next month will really determine how the crop gets across the finish line.”

Even with the tour’s higher-than-expected estimated yield estimate, there was muted pressure in the U.S. futures markets. July hard red winter wheat futures closed on May 16 at $6.73 per bushel, down only 1.6 cents from May 15. Significant cuts in Russia’s wheat yield estimates, including by SovEcon likely made the difference. The analyst this month lowered its 2024 Russian wheat production forecast by 7.2 million metric tons (MMT) to 85.7 MMT due to dry conditions and freeze damage in Central and Southern Russia.

The Wheat Quality Council each year emphasizes that the scouts’ estimated yield potential is only a snapshot of the crop during the week of the tour. The primary goals of the wheat tour are to make connections within the wheat industry, allow participants to meet wheat farmers, observe the growing crop, and to highlight the agriculture industry.

May 16, 2024/by Steve Mercer

USW Announcements

U.S. Organizations Have Allied to Provide Much-Needed Mental Health Resources for Farm Families

A communications professional group of which I am a member recently shared information about a topic that is difficult, but vitally important to continue U.S. wheat’s promise of “Dependable People, Reliable Wheat.” It is mental health and other wellness issues for wheat farm families and within their rural communities who make up the U.S. wheat supply system.

In this “Wheat Letter” blog, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) usually focuses on practical information about the quality and value of U.S. wheat and supporting services.

It is also important for customers to understand that farming is a stressful way of life with increasing challenges. Multiple studies show that farmer suicide rates are up to five times higher than the national average. Natural disasters, extreme weather events, financial uncertainty, fluctuating markets, labor shortages, trade disruptions, and other factors all contribute to extreme stress or mental health issues for farmers and ranchers who often live in a very isolated setting.

Mental Health Safety Net

At a recent online discussion, the U.S.-based Farm Foundation and American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) introduced their work to provide crucial mental health services to those dependable people who supply wheat to the world. The organizations are part of a landmark alliance launching free, anonymous, mental health and wellbeing services to provide a nationwide safety net of confidential and on-demand mental health support to farmers, ranchers, and farm families. Unveiled at the AFBF 2024 Convention in January 2024, the Farm Family Wellness Alliance (FFWA) provides solutions to build farm family wellness and access to an understanding community.

That access is provided in this alliance through Togetherall, a safe, clinically moderated peer-to-peer community, where members around the world are there to listen, support and give members’ mental wellbeing a boost. Through an anonymous profile, users can access a global network of peers, backed by the safeguarding of licensed clinicians overseeing the community around-the-clock.

Learn More

The FFWA is hosting a webinar May 21, 2024, at 10:00 a.m. U.S. Central Time to share more information on “Togetherall” resources available to farm families across the country. This webinar is open to all organizations, associations, and individuals involved in agriculture who want to learn more about supporting farm family well-being. Registration is required and may be accessed here.

USW cares deeply about the farm families we represent, the people who protect the quality and integrity of U.S. wheat in the export system, and our customers around the world. We applaud organizations like Farm Foundation, AFBF, and others that are working to provide such mental health services. And we encourage anyone who is experiencing anxiety, depression, or other stresses to seek the help you deserve.

By USW Vice President of Communications Steve Mercer

May 14, 2024/by Steve Mercer

Market and Crop Analysis, Wheat Prices

Key Market Mover: Weather Developments Generate Wheat Price Rally

Across the Northern Hemisphere, wheat price and crop development are dominating market discussion. Soon, the first harvests of the 2024/25 crop year will provide more concrete information on supply availability and quality. Until then, weather conditions will play a crucial role in global grain markets as winter wheat enters late growth stages and spring wheat planting progresses.

USDA map of the world shows large agricultural regions in green and comments about crop conditions in each region.

In May, the Northern Hemisphere winter wheat crop reaches critical stages of crop growth, while spring wheat planting is underway. During sensitive development stages such as heading and flowering, wheat is more susceptible to weather related stress, which may negatively affect yield potential. Source: USDA FAS.

Although world wheat prices were trending steadily lower over the last year, shifting weather patterns have prompted a recent reversal. Since April 18, 2024, the July Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures contract has surged from $5.53 per bushel to $6.87 per bushel as of May 13, reaching its highest level since August 2023 (ProphetX chart image at the top of this page). Following is a look at recent market-moving weather developments and factors to watch as the 2024 harvest approaches.

Weather Swings Bring Attention to Russia

In the past month, varied weather conditions have raised concerns about the Russian wheat production outlook. Recent reports from Sovecon indicated that from mid-March to mid-April, moisture levels in southern Russia were 60% to 80% of normal and minimum temperatures were 2°to 4°C above average. Meanwhile from May 3 to 5, central and southern Russian crop growing areas suffered from severe frosts, potentially affecting the development of wheat, sugar beets, and other crops. Media sources reported air temperatures as low as -4.6 °C (23.7 °F) and soil temperatures near -5 °C (23 °F).

Map of Russia showing major agricultural regions where wheat is grown in green.

Weather fluctuations have raised concerns about the Russian wheat production outlook. The combined impact of dryness throughout southern Russia’s growing areas and severe frosts in central and southern Russia prompted IKAR analysts to reduce its production estimates by 5.0 MMT to 86.0 MMT. Source: USDA FAS.

The combined impact of dryness and severe frosts prompted IKAR analysts to reduce their production estimates by 5.0 MMT to 86.0 MMT. Similarly, the May USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WADE) predicted a 3.5 MMT drop for 2024/25 Russian output year over year. Throughout 2023 and early 2024 the large supplies of Russian wheat flooded the world market and depressed prices, highlighting the sizable influence Russia projects on global grain markets. Therefore, lower yield potential in Russia would have a significantly bullish impact on global prices.

Variable U.S. Conditions

On the domestic front, the overall outlook for the U.S. Southern Plains remain more optimistic as moisture levels and drought conditions improve. However, over the last few weeks, dry and variable conditions have raised concerns regarding 2024 production prospects. In Kansas, the largest HRW producing state, crop conditions have deteriorated rapidly, going from 57 percent good to excellent on February 25 to only 31 percent good to excellent by May 12. Likewise, conditions have worsened in Colorado, Oklahoma, and Texas due to windy and dry weather.

The persistent lack of moisture in parts of the Southern Plains may keep wheat prices elevated, but nevertheless, improving conditions in other areas and the potential for timely rains in drought afflicted regions could offset the impact. Overall, U.S. conditions still remain much improved from 2023, with 50% of all winter wheat rated good to excellent.

Results of the Wheat Quality Council’s Hard Winter Wheat tour May 14 to 16 will have their own, if brief, impact on futures prices.

Expect Increased Volatility

Until the crop reaches maturity and harvest begins in the Northern Hemisphere, weather will heavily influence futures markets. In the short term, prices will stay volatile in response to rapidly changing conditions and news. For up-to-date information regarding the current crop conditions and harvest outlook, look for the weekly USDA Crop Progress Report and the U.S. Wheat Associates Harvest Report. Also, watch the next “Wheat Letter” for discussion on the newest changes to the May WASDE and the first glimpse of what the 2024/25 marketing year will bring.

By USW Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford

May 14, 2024/by Steve Mercer

China

USW Joins Sino-American Baking School to Celebrate Partnership, 40th Anniversary

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Regional Vice President Jeff Coey addresses faculty, returning students and professionals from the baking industry during the 40th anniversary of the Sino-American Baking School .

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Regional Vice President Jeff Coey addresses faculty, former students and professionals from the baking industry during the 40th anniversary of the Sino-American Baking School.

An investment made by U.S. wheat growers four decades ago continues to develop into a partnership that benefits both the American wheat industry and the Chinese baking industry. The Sino-American Baking School (SABS), formed in 1984 by U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) and a local grain bureau in China, is playing a key role in the growth of the Chinese baking market.

Its mission is to provide baking vocational training to students from Guangdong Province.

“My predecessors and the predecessor boards saw the potential of the market and invested in the school,” said USW Regional Vice President Jeff Coey. “It was a very wise decision and over the years the partnership between USW and the school has been something wheat farmers in the U.S. can really be proud of.”

U.S. Wheat Farmers Help Celebrate

A team of U.S. wheat farmers was able to attend the recent 40^th anniversary celebration in Guangzhou. The school recognized members of the USW Vietnam-China Board Team.

“The growers present were able to witness both the gratitude and sincere appreciation of the instructors and former students and have person-to-person contact with them,” said Coey, who spoke at the anniversary celebration. “The U.S. Wheat Board Team reaffirmed the support of U.S. growers to the ongoing training work of the school and awarded a gift to the school’s leadership for furthering the cause of wheat flour education in China.”

North Dakota farmer and USW Secretary-Treasurer Jim Pellman, who was part of the Board Team, made the presentation.

“As a wheat farmer, we know how important educating bakers and future bakers around the world is to our efforts to export U.S. wheat,” said Pellman. “It was good to meet both the teachers and the students, and to see how interested they are in the wheat they use to make baked goods in the market. It is a valuable partnership we have.”

Along with Pellman, the USW Board Team included Minnesota wheat farmer Mark Jossund, Maryland wheat farmer Jennie Schmidt and Luke Muller, Assistant Director of the USW West Coast Office in Portland. While in the Guangzhou market, the team was able to visit local bakeries to learn about end products that are favored by consumers.

This photo shows attendees of the 40th anniversary of the Sino-American Baking School (SABS), which has played a key role in the growth of the Chinese baking market.

Students, Bakers Return to School

At the SABO celebration, the team rubbed elbows with U.S. government officials in China, leaders of the country’s milling and baking industry, and friends of the school.

Philip Zhou, a USW Senior Advisor and former director of the school, coordinated an effort to bring the school’s alumni together and to meet the USW Board Team at a gala dinner. At least 30 former students returned from all corners of China to praise the school and give testimonials about how it helped their professional development and careers.

May 12, 2024/by Ralph Loos

South Asia, Sustainability, Trade Service Activities

AG Supply Chain Asia Conference 2024: Driving Sustainable Agricultural Excellence

In March 2024, the annual AG Supply Chain Asia (ASCA) Conference took place in Bangkok, Thailand, highlighting sustainability and innovation as integral components shaping the future of agriculture. The conference provided a significant platform for discussions centered on the theme “Integrating Sustainability and Innovation for Future Agricultural Excellence.”

Organized by the U.S. Wheat Associates (USW), U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC), and U.S. Grains Council, and, this notable event drew more than 370 attendees from 20 countries, representing over 170 companies. The conference organizers are grateful for the support from U.S. farmer organizations and industry sponsors.

“This conference is an excellent opportunity to reinforce the value of the reliable U.S. agricultural export supply system with our colleagues representing U.S. grain and soybean growers,” said Joe Bippert, USW Assistant Regional Director, South and Southeast Asia. “There were several flour millers from Thailand at the conference. USW Noodle Technologist Ivan Goh and I also made a trade service call on a Thai flour mill after the conference.”

According to participant feedback, the AG Supply Chain Asia conference facilitated transactions and negotiations estimated at 1.5 million metric tons of U.S. agricultural products including 220,000 metric tons (MT) of wheat, 335,000 MT of soybeans, 385,000 MT of soybean meal, 180,000 MT of corn, 340,000 MT of Dried Distiller Grains with Solubles (DDGS). This positions the event as a key gathering within the agricultural sector in Southeast Asia.

Advancing Global Food Security Through Sustainability

U.S. Ambassador to Thailand, Robert F. Godec, emphasized the pivotal role of ASEAN in the global agricultural landscape. He underscored the need for sustainable food systems to address evolving challenges like climate change and to ensure global food security. Amb. Godec highlighted the ASEAN region’s significance as the United States’ fourth largest agriculture export market.

In a presentation to the AG Supply Chain Asia conference, Bippert highlighted the current wheat supply landscape and the demand outlook, noting that various factors such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, droughts, and geopolitics have influenced market dynamics and prices. Despite these uncertainties, he emphasized the dynamic nature and the strong commitment to environmental and economic sustainability within the U.S. wheat industry. See “Stories of Stewardship” online for more information.

The annual AG Supply Chain Asia conference has firmly established itself as a robust venue for networking, fostering trade discussions, and business prospects for U.S. agricultural products. By facilitating pivotal discussions and offering insightful perspectives, the event provided a holistic view of the future landscape of U.S. agriculture, underlining the indispensable role of sustainable practices and technological advancements in attaining agricultural excellence.

The photo at the top of this page from the conference includes U.S. agricultural export cooperator leadership (USW’s Joe Bippert is 3rd from left) together with Robert F. Godec, U.S. Ambassador to Thailand, U.S. Embassy (7th from left) and Ms. Kelly Stange, Agricultural Counselor for Thailand, Myanmar and Laos, USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Services, Thailand (6th from left).

USW thanks the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service for its support of the conference and administration of export market development programs. This article was also funded in part by the soy checkoff.

May 7, 2024/by Steve Mercer

Wheat Industry News

News and Information from Around the World Wheat Industry

Speaking of Wheat

“I am truly appreciative of the support provided by the O.A. Vogel Endowment and what it has meant to growing the spring wheat breeding program over the past eight years. With our current levels of federal funding, extramural grants, Washington Grain Commission support, and variety royalty revenue reinvestment, I feel like it is great time to re-direct these endowment funds to where they can do the most for Washington growers.” – Washington State University Professor and Wheat Breeder Mike Pumphrey (photo above), who is stepping down from the O.A. Vogel Chair of Wheat Breeding and Genetics.

Chad Weigand Marks 15 Years with USW

Chad Weigand, Regional Director, Sub-Saharan Africa

Chad Weigand joined U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) on April 30, 2009, as Market Analyst following a post-graduate internship with the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. In 2011, Chad was promoted to Assistant Regional Director in the USW Mexico City office covering Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. He currently serves as Regional Director, Sub-Saharan Africa, in Cape Town, South Africa. Congratulations, Chad, and thank you for your service!

Washington Grain Commission Honors Wheat Breeder

The Washington Grain Commission (WGC) is recognizing Washington State University (WSU) spring wheat breeder Mike Pumphrey and celebrating his contributions to the Washington wheat industry. Pumphrey, a professor in WSU’s crop and soil sciences department, co-held the O.A. Vogel Chair of Wheat Breeding and Genetics with WSU winter wheat breeder Arron Carter. Pumphrey informed the WGC in January that he is stepping down from his Vogel chair appointment to better focus on his WSU teaching and research activities. As a Vogel chair, Pumphrey participated in trade team and technical servicing activities through U.S. Wheat Associates (USW). “Mike, as a lifelong learner, understands that it is important to produce wheat varieties that meet the end-use quality characteristics valued by wheat buyers in the rapidly growing overseas markets in Southeast Asia,” said Steve Wirsching, Vice President and Director of the USW West Coast Office in Portland.

USW, NAWG Participate in Farm Broadcaster Issues Forum

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) and the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) shared a booth at this week’s Washington Watch “Issues Forum” hosted by the National Association of Farm Broadcasting (NAFB). USW Director of Trade Policy Peter Laudeman had several discussions with members of the ag media during the event. He fielded questions about the broader opportunity for gene editing regulations and research – innovative technologies that have potential for higher and more stable wheat yields in the U.S. that could bring a change in global export competitiveness. Laudeman also discussed the recent USDA announcement of $1B in funding for international food assistance, a portion of which will purchase U.S.-grown wheat for international humanitarian donations.

Peter Laudeman, Director of Trade Policy, is interviewed at NAFB Washington event.

Wheat Foods Council Hosts Denver Food Professionals for ‘Culinary Immersion’

The Wheat Foods Council (WFC) recently hosted a culinary immersion in Denver aimed at educating and inspiring high-volume food professionals about wheat and wheat foods. The tour included stops at local bakeries, restaurants and manufacturers who specialize in notable applications of wheat. Each stop highlighted a unique and creative use of wheat and allowed attendees to hear (and taste) the proprietors’ skill and inspiration firsthand. The event also allowed chef attendees in depth interaction with the WFC executive team members who were able to impart their industry knowledge and passion and build loyal and lasting relationships with this key group of foodservice professionals.

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.

May 2, 2024/by Steve Mercer

Market and Crop Analysis, Tyllor Ledford, USDA, Wheat Export Supply System

Marketing Year 2023/24 Countdown; First Look at New Crop U.S. Wheat Sales

With just 6 weeks left in marketing year (MY) 2023/24, many buyers are locking in purchases for June and July shipment, shifting much of the export focus to MY 2024/25, or “new crop,” U.S. wheat sales that are gradually ramping up at a faster pace compared to a year ago. The following will outline MY 2023/24 sales pace to date and provide an initial look at MY 2024/25 export sales.

2023/24 Recap

Throughout MY 2023/24 market conditions turned back to buyers. From June 1, 2023, to present, U.S. wheat FOB export price dropped 15% on average for all classes and export locations. This trend was driven by Black Sea competition pressuring U.S. and global wheat prices. As of April 30, 2024, Russian wheat is still the cheapest on the world market, at $214 per metric ton (MT) FOB (12.5% protein on a dry moisture basis).

As world wheat values fall, U.S. prices follow, and the lower prices have helped boost exports for two U.S. wheat classes. In MY 2023/24 to date, China imported over 1.2 million metric tons (MMT) of soft red winter (SRW), contributing to a 51% increase in total SRW export sales as of April 18, 2024. Likewise, hard red spring (HRS) sales hover 13% ahead of the year prior at 6.4 MMT, making up 34% of the total U.S. wheat export sales. Nonetheless, the positive export performance for HRS and SRW does not offset the significant decline in hard red winter (HRW) and soft white (SW) exports. To date, HRW exports sit at 3.6 MMT, down 28% from the year prior. Likewise, SW exports sit 15% below last year’s pace.

We can expect the 2023/24 sales pace to decline further as customers seek shipments for June and July delivery. For the week ending April 18, for example, net sales of just 82,000 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in 2023/24. Despite increased exports for some classes, USDA expects wheat exports to reach 19.3 MMT, the lowest level since 1971/72 if realized. Moreover, the current pace puts total commitments to date 500,000 MT below the projections.

This line and bar chart compares USDA's export estimate to the by-week pace of sales in 2022/23 and 2023/24 and to the 5-year average sales pace, indicating a decline in sales.

For the week ending April 18, net sales of 82,000 MT were reported for delivery in 2023/24. Year-to-date 2023/24 commercial sales totaled 18.8 MMT. USDA expects 2023/24 U.S. wheat exports of 19.3 MMT, and commitments to date are 97% of total projected exports. Current exports sit just 1% ahead of last year’s pace, but 17% below the five-year average. Source: USDA FAS Export Sales.

Strong Start

Despite the slower pace of U.S. wheat sales in MY 2023/24, the new crop outlook for 2024/25 is more optimistic. Buyers are beginning to take advantage of lower prices and securing early shipments for MY 2024/25. For the week ending April 18, the total known outstanding sales for MY 2024/25 reached 2.1 MMT, 112% ahead of last year’s pace, with net sales coming in at 371,858 MT.

HRS continues to lead export sales, with 743,580 MT sold to date, a 211% increase from last year. Likewise, soft white sales are up 670% at 675,180 MT, HRW is up 100% to 347,200 MT, and durum sales are up 80% at 66,500 MT. Acting as the outlier, SRW sales are 34% behind last year, at 314,200 MT as prices remain elevated relative to SW.

This bar chart shows new marketing year U.S. wheat sales to the top 10 countries by volume in 2023 and 2024 as of mid-April.

For the week ending April 18, the total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for the 2024/25 marketing year reached 2.1 MMT,112% ahead of last year’s pace, with net sales coming in at 371,858 MT. HRS export sales sit 211% above last year, SW 670% higher, HRW 100% higher, and durum 80% higher. Acting as the outlier, SRW sales are 34% behind last year’s pace. Source: USDA FAS Export Sales.

Contributing to the sales increase, several customers have already bought more U.S. wheat in MY 2024/25 compared to this time last year. So far, South Korea is the top U.S. wheat buyer, with 389,500 MT booked, a significant increase from 45,300 MT the previous year. During the week of March 18, SW prices fell as low as $219/MT (according to the U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report) tracking the decreasing trend in the global wheat market. During this period, South Korean feed grain importers bought feed wheat cargos from the U.S., boosting their SW imports. However, according to Channy Bae, Country Director, USW/Seoul, this is a short-term opportunity for South Korean feed manufacturers and their purchases will shift relative to the price of corn and other origins.

The next largest new crop buyers to date are the Philippines, Mexico, and Japan with year over year increases of 348%, 30% and 83%, respectively. Likewise, buyers in Thailand and Panama have significantly outpaced their 2023/24 purchases, coming in at 239% and 336% higher. Some of the recent increases can be attributed to customers’ need for product and shipment cadence as well as customers taking advantage of more competitive pricing.

This bar chart demonstrates the increased U.S. wheat export sales pace to 10 countries to date in 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.

To date, South Korea, the Philippines, and Mexico are the top buyers of U.S. wheat. Year over year increases of 760%, 348%, and 30% have been recorded thus far. Buyers in Thailand and Panama have also significantly outpaced their 2023/24 purchases, coming in at 239% and 336% above last year’s level. Source: USDA FAS Export Sales.

Stay Tuned

Stronger early 2024/25 U.S. wheat sales come with one caveat. Traders identify farmer sales as a potential limiting factor moving into MY 2024/25. The lower wheat prices provide less incentive for farmers who use storage as a hedge to sell. The lack of liquidity limits the ability of exporters to aggressively price and market grain to meet the increased demand.

Looking ahead, the May 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates will offer additional insights on U.S. wheat production, exports, and global demand. Likewise, the weekly Commercial Sales Report will provide real time updates to the U.S. wheat sales pace. As always, U.S. Wheat Associates remains committed to offering information and support for buyers transitioning into the 2024/25 marketing year.

By Tyllor Ledford, USW Market Analyst

May 1, 2024/by Steve Mercer

Board of Directors, Japan

Coast to Coast: Team of Flour Milling Executives from Japan Hosted by USW in Arlington, Portland

USW President Vince Peterson and the USW Policy Team met with members of the Japanese Flour Millers Association (JFMA) for discussions at USW’s Arlington office.

Executives from top flour milling companies in Japan visited the Arlington, Virginia, office of U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) April 26. It was part of an annual trade mission seeking updates on the U.S. wheat crop and trade policy issues.

Starting in the Nation’s Capital

Made up of members of the Japanese Flour Millers Association (JFMA), the team also visited USDA offices. One stop included a meeting with Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Daniel Whitley. The East Coast visit included a stop at the Japanese Embassy in Washington, D.C.

The team then traveled to Oregon for a briefing from USW’s West Coast Office in Portland.

Valued Updates on U.S. Wheat

In Arlington, USW President Vince Peterson, Vice President of Policy Dalton Henry and Director of Trade Policy Peter Laudeman answered questions from some of U.S. wheat’s biggest customers. According to USW Japan Country Director Rick Nakano, the participating companies represent 80% of the Japanese wheat flour market.

“It is a trip that these executives look forward to each year because it offers them an opportunity to see many aspects of the U.S. wheat industry and discuss things face-to-face,” Nakano said. “The members return to Japan and share the things they learned in the various meetings.”

Henry said USW is always eager to provide updates and interact with JFMA members – be it in Japan or here in the U.S.

“The milling executives are always interested in U.S. wheat production and exploring our attitudes and opinions on biotechnology. This includes gene-edited wheat and drought-resistant wheat,” Henry said. “These are topics that get a lot of attention in ag media and other channels. So it’s important for us to have these in-person meetings to discuss what is happening. We are partners, so it is good to have these discussions on a regular basis.”

Mike Moran, Executive Director of the Wheat Marketing Center (WMC) in Portland, provides the team of Japanese flour millers with a tour of the WMC facility.

Moving on to the West Coast . . .

USW staff in Portland provided updates on the wheat crop in the Pacific Northwest. The Japanese team then had meetings with the Oregon Wheat Commission, and the Wheat Marketing Center (WMC). Visits with traders and exporters across the region followed.

At the WMC, Executive Director Mike Moran gave a tour of the facility. The group had the opportunity to learn about the different pilot lines in the WMC’s Innovation Lab, along with looks inside the Analytical Lab and Baking Lab.

The JFMA team returned to Japan on May 1.

“The team is very appreciative of the continued partnership and the support from U.S. wheat industry,” Nakano said as the Oregon portion of the visit ended. “We pack a lot into a short period of time, and there is a lot of travel, but the flour millers always leave the U.S. with a lot of good information to take home to their businesses.”

May 1, 2024/by Ralph Loos

Board of Directors, China, Vietnam

Video: Farmers on USW Board Team Witness the Important Role U.S. Wheat Plays in Vietnam, China

As a wheat farmer and dietician from Maryland, Jennie Schmidt found exploring flour mills and bakeries in Asia to be an intriguing adventure that came with plenty of “ah-ha” moments.

There is lots to be learned from meeting and talking to the people who buy and use U.S. wheat.

“It was nice to be able to see your product going into products both in Vietnam and in China,” Schmidt, who represented Maryland Grain Producers on the recent U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Vietnam-China Board Team mission. “To see how wheat grown on our farms in the U.S. ends up as food for domestic consumption or for regional export markets helps paint the picture and show the value of international trade. It was also obvious they really like producing food products with U.S. wheat.”

Schmidt joined USW Secretary-Treasurer Jim Pellman of McClusky, North Dakota, and Mark Jossund of Moorhead, Minnesota, on the Board Team, which was led by USW West Coast Office Assistant Director Luke Muller.

Scenes from the group’s stops in both Vietnam and China can be seen in this brief video . . .

April 30, 2024/by Ralph Loos

Market and Crop Analysis, Tyllor Ledford, Wheat Production and Harvest

Articles of Interest – The Latest News About the U.S. Wheat Crop

Every weekday, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) searches U.S. and global media for news about the U.S. wheat crop and the world wheat market. USW shares the news of the day as a service to our domestic stakeholders. The articles of interest on Monday, April 29, summarized below also have value for our overseas customers.

Wheat Market Rally

A market analysis article presented April 26 on “Farm Journal AgWeb” reached out to Allison Thompson of The Money Farm to describe a 7-day rally in U.S. wheat futures prices while corn and soybean futures declined. Thompson said concerns about dry conditions in the Central and Southern Plains hard red winter (HRW) region as well as southern Russia and western Canada sparked commercial investors to cover long-held short futures positions.

In the April 26 USW Price Report, Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford related news from traders that the futures rally did prompt farmers to sell old-crop wheat. Storms from April 26 to 28 sadly included a deadly, destructive tornado outbreak but also significant rain for some HRW and SRW production regions. So, early on April 29, HRW and soft red winter (SRW) futures were down. The precipitation missed much of western and south-central Kansas, eastern Colorado, and western Nebraska, however.

Image from USW Price Report page describes the latest information on US wheat export market and prices.

The April 26, 2024, USW Price Report noted that farmers increased sales of old crop HRW and HRS wheat during a recent rally in U.S. wheat futures prices.

Spring Wheat

Also on April 26, North Dakota Wheat Commission Director of Policy and Marketing Jim Peterson told “Farm & Ranch Guide” that there are both positive and negative price influences for U.S. hard red spring (HRS) wheat.

Jim Peterson

“On the positive note, it looks like an earlier planting season than a lot of other areas relative to the last few years, so that’s typically yield positive,” he explained. “The reason we’re seeing earlier planting is a lot of areas are abnormally dry to critically dry. If we don’t get a big shift in weather patterns here, we could see some early season moisture stress on the spring wheat region. Then we’ll see what happens with acres. Right now, the forecast is for unchanged total acres nationally, maybe up slightly,” he added.

Despite strong Canadian competition, Peterson said some demand fundamentals support the U.S. spring wheat market. Commercial sales of HRS as of April 25 were 13% ahead of a year ago at 6.40 million metric tons (MMT) and more than USDA’s projections.

Potential Wheat Supply Chain Disruption

Along with the farm and grain handling industries in the Pacific Northwest export system, USW is closely watching the political fight about the potential breaching of four dams on the Lower Snake River. An agricultural media company in the region with a website called AgProud.com published an interview about the debate with Scott Corbitt, General Manager of the Post of Lewiston in Idaho. In the interview, Corbitt describes the value of the port to the region and the overseas customers it helps serve.

U.S. grain handlers purchase wheat from farmers and transport approximately 24 million bushels (0.65 MMT) of wheat by barge through the Port of Lewiston every year, he said, and the companies barge 10% of total U.S. wheat exports through the Colombia Snake River System. Wheat exported from Idaho alone exceeds $300 million annually, Corbitt told AgProud.com. He added that breaching the Lower Snake River dams would result in a huge economic hit for the region disrupt the efficient flow of U.S. soft white (SW), HRS and HRW wheat to export elevators downstream in the Portland area.

Ice Harbor Dam on the Lower Snake River System in Washington state.

Read more information on the threat to barging on the Colombia Snake River System online here.

Eye on the Crop

“Capital Press” reporter Matthew Weaver recently wrote about how researchers at Washington State University have installed a wheat field camera at the university’s dryland research station in eastern Washington state. The still images taken several times a day of a spring SW wheat field can be viewed online at the research station website and on its YouTube channel.

A spokesperson for the station said the camera is a way for overseas and domestic wheat buyers, as well as non-farmers, to see how the crop progresses and to get more information about sustainable wheat production. The station plans to add short videos about the spring SW wheat crop to the service throughout the growing season and harvest.

The Washington Grain Commission, a long-time USW member organization co-sponsors the “WSU Field Cam.”

April 29, 2024/by Steve Mercer