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Stories from the Wheat Farm – Living with Purpose in North Dakota

U.S. wheat farm families grow six distinct classes of wheat across the diverse landscape of the United States. Those farmers take great care in producing the highest quality wheat in the most sustainable ways possible to honor their family legacies and to ensure greater value for their customers at home and abroad. Behind the world’s most reliable supply of wheat are the world’s most dependable people.

The Volk Family: Philip and Lisa Volk and their five children grow hard red spring (HRS) wheat on their family farm in North Dakota that was founded in 1942. Responsibilities are shared among them all, even their youngest who rides along with Mom or Dad during wheat harvest.

Location: York, N.D.
Classes of Wheat Grown:  Hard Red Spring (HRS)
Leadership: Philip Volk: Commissioner, North Dakota Wheat Commission (NDWC); USW Director; NDWC liaison to the Wheat Marketing Center; Chairman, SBARE Wheat Granting Committee.

View other videos and stories in this “Stories from the Wheat Farm” series:

The Next Generation in Kansas
Loving the Work in Ohio
Committed to Stewardship in Washington
A Passion for the Land in Oklahoma
Committed to Wheat Quality in Oregon
Embracing the Agricultural Lifestyle in Montana

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Wheat Industry News

Recent news and highlights from around the wheat industry.

Speaking of Wheat: “Even though the customers cannot be here in person, we want to assure them that they are welcome to ask questions and reach out to us, as well as visit us when it is safe to travel.” – Glen Squires, CEO, Washington Grain Commission, from an article about virtual wheat export promotion by state wheat commissions and U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) in Capital Press.

Congratulations to Ian Flagg and his wife Serena on the birth of their first child Aug. 11, a girl named Thea Juliette. Ian, who is USW’s Regional Vice President for Europe, Middle East and North Africa, says Mom and baby, who is named after her great grandmother, are doing well.

Pacific Northwest wheat producers rely on a complex system of rivers, rail, and highways to transport their product. Of all the wheat produced in Washington state for example, about 60% of it is transported via the Columbia-Snake River System. A comprehensive environmental impact analysis of the lower Snake River dams was recently completed and published. The Washington Association of Wheat Growers (WAWG) stated that the report balances the needs of farmers, salmon, power supply, and social welfare in the Pacific Northwest.

USW Recommends www.farmbabe.com. With an average social media reach of 2-3 million a month and 120K followers, Michelle Miller has made a name for herself as a dedicated myth-buster in the food industry as the Farm Babe™. Michelle brings a unique perspective as a big city globetrotter turned Iowa Farm girl, and plants the seed inside the minds of those looking to understand the truth about modern agricultural production. Farm Babe™ is one of the most popular and vibrant food and farming personalities in social media.

Registration Underway for Three September IAOM-KSU Milling Courses. IAOM has joined with Kansas State University’s IGP Institute to offer a variety of milling courses, which will be held in Manhattan, Kan. Review the class information and register here.

Our Hearts Go Out to Farmers in Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois and Indiana who lost crops and suffered damage from a devastating, long-lived thunderstorm Aug. 10. With straight line, hurricane-force winds, this “deracho” storm affected an estimated 37.7 million acres, primarily corn and soybeans. Reuters reported that “the toll from the derecho storm has worsened as farmers and grain handlers have spent the week assessing flattened corn fields and crumpled steel storage bins.” The storm also caused widespread damage to rural towns and cities in its destructive path.

Subscribe to USW Reports. USW publishes a variety of reports and content that are available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts, the weekly Price Report and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online. Visit our Facebook page at for the latest updates, photos and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and more on LinkedIn.

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Virtual 2020 Northern Durum Update Suggests a Range of Yield and Quality

The North Dakota Wheat Commission (NDWC) and the U.S. Durum Growers Association (USDGA) held a virtual “Northern Durum Pre-Harvest Update” Aug. 18 featuring industry experts, farmers and university Extension workers reporting on the 2020 northern durum crop. The hosts recorded the session which is now posted on the USDGA YouTube channel here and on the NDWC event page here.

More than 60 participants heard first-hand accounts about what is expected to be a larger crop by about 12 percent compared to 2019, mainly from increased planted area. Yield and quality likely will vary because early planted fields in North Dakota did not get rain at the ideal time for growth and tillering, while later planted fields caught rain in late June into mid-July at the right time for development. Precipitation across Montana’s western durum production region was more timely and yield potential is expected to be more consistent there.

“USDA’s current forecast for North Dakota is 42.8 bushels per acre, which is above the trend line but less than in 2019,” said Jim Peterson, NDWC Policy and Marketing Director. “Production is estimated now at 62 million bushels, or 1.69 million metric tons, in the state.”

Sam Anderson, Industry Analyst and Marketing Coordinator with the Montana Wheat and Barley Committee, told the participants that farmers there are generally very pleased with their northern durum crops.

“There was more durum and hard red spring wheat seeded because of the extremely wet conditions last fall that kept farmers from putting in hard red winter wheat,” Anderson said. “As of Aug. 1, the average yield forecast is 38.0 bushels per acre, which would put the total production estimate in the state at 22.42 million bushels,” or more than 610,000 metric tons.

Farmers from across North Dakota also reported from their own fields. Mark Birdsall farms in Ward County and showed some later-seeded durum that has “a really good stand … tall with heavy heads,” that is about 3 weeks from maturity. His grandson Owen held plants from the field that stood close to his height of 5 feet (1.524 meters).

Mark Birdsall’s grandson Owen, who stands about 5 feet (1.524 meters) tall holds plants from a later seeded durum crop that almost match his height.

Blake Inman of Berthold, N.D., is USDGA’s President this year, and noted that his durum looked good, particularly the later-seeded fields. He expects to start his harvest in about 3 weeks but was somewhat concerned about variable maturity and late season weed growth that could cause challenges at harvest.

USDGA President and Berthold, N.D., farmer Blake Inman expects good yields from this northern durum field.

Adam Carney farms in Montana’s “Platinum Square,” as the northeast corner of the state is called. With plenty of timely rains, he says his durum “should provide a nice yield and quality.”

The northern durum harvest is currently underway and is a bit more advanced in Montana. U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) will soon begin reporting on northern durum quality as samples are collected and analyzed for USW’s 2020 Harvest Report.

 

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Image shows grain rail cars by a country elevator to illustrate USW comments to the Surface Transportation Board.
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USW Transportation Group Supports Proposed Change in Rail Rate Review

By Claire Hutchins, USW Market Analyst   

U.S. railroads are a crucial part of the most efficient grain supply system in the world. The rail system fulfills an essential logistical function that neither grain handlers nor farmers can perform on their own.  

Yet rail rates and charges paid by wheat shippers make up a large portion of export basis and directly affect the price overseas buyers pay for U.S. wheat. Farmers and the grain companies who rely on domestic rail to ship wheat are also aware that rail rates have increased at a rapid pace at the same time that export competition has also increased.  

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) and many of its state wheat commission members in 2017 formed a Transportation Working Group (TWG) to address issues of increasing wheat rail tariff rates and U.S. wheat’s competitive market position, especially compared to other commodities shipped from the same destinations to many export terminals.  

The Surface Transportation Board (STB) is a federal regulatory board that has broad economic oversight of U.S. railroads. In early July, the TWG met with STB commissioners to voice support for a possible procedure that would make it easier and more efficient for shippers to challenge unreasonable and uncompetitive rail rates.  

In the past year, the STB introduced the concept of a Final Offer Rate Review (FORR) that would help shippers in this effort. Over a 135–day timeline proposed under FORR: a shipper could challenge the railroad’s rate; both the shipper and the railroad could provide evidence supporting their position on the rate; both parties could suggest alternative rail rates; and if the STB finds the railroad is market dominant and imposed unreasonable rates, relief could be offered to the shipper as the difference between the initial rate and the new, lower rate offered either by the shipper or the railroad.  

The USW TWG filed public comments to the STB in mid-August supporting the Board’s FORR procedure.  

The FORR method offers wheat shippers a new system to challenge unreasonable rail rates. The TWG believes the FORR method is necessary because while farmers have faced depressed farm gate prices, wheat rail tariff rates have increased continually over time at a significantly higher rate than the railroads’ variable cost to ship the wheat (see chart). Additionally, wheat rates are substantially higher than the rates faced by similar commodities shipped over the exact same routes (see chart).  

The TWG applauds the STB for proposing the FORR concept and believes it will help wheat shippers throughout the country challenge unreasonable rail rates which could help U.S. wheat reach overseas customers at more competitive prices.  

USW, state wheat commissions and the farmers we represent look to U.S. railroads as our vital partners in a mutually beneficial effort to increase the value of U.S. wheat to end users. We appreciate their consideration of how fair rail rates can help make U.S. wheat more competitive on the world market. 

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USDA Highlights Record Wheat Production, Demand and Ending Stocks

In its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA provided a look at what is shaping up to be another record year for wheat production, use and stock levels. Worth noting is the fact that USDA expects two traditionally non-exporting countries, China and India, will control more than 61% of the world’s wheat stocks at the end of marketing year 2020/21.

Each month, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) updates a graphic summary of USDA’s WASDE report that includes global wheat market factors, major country and regional export history and U.S. wheat supply and demand summaries by class.

Here are some notable highlights from USW’s August World Wheat Supply and Demand report:

Global wheat production to hit another record of 766 million metric tons (MMT). USDA expects increases in Australia, Russia, Argentina, Canada and other countries to offset lower production in the European Union and the United States. Global use continues to grow and USDA expects it to reach another record in 2020/21 at 750 MMT.

Source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Global ending stocks are now projected at a record level of 317 MMT. If realized, that volume would be 5% more than 2019/20 and 14% more than the 5-year average. A more in-depth analysis of ending stocks shows the stockpiling of wheat in China and India continued unabated in large part because of government price guarantees that artificially incentivize wheat production and distort world trade. China’s record 2020/21 beginning stocks of 152 MMT could increase through the marketing year to end at 163 MMT and USDA expects India to hold a record level of 30.7 MMT at the end of 2020/21. China will not export any of its stocks. India, however, may start exporting as it has periodically when its subsidized production exceeds its ability to store and distribute it domestically.

Source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

U.S. ending stocks are expected to decrease 11% from last year, the lowest in 6 years. The expected drop in U.S. ending stocks from 28.4 MMT in 2019/20 to 25.2 MMT in 2020/21 would be the fourth consecutive year of declining U.S. stocks.

Yet profitability from wheat is not a certainty for U.S. farmers. In fact, USDA indicates a decline in the average price U.S. farmers will receive per bushel, from $4.58/bu ($168/MT) last year to $4.50/bu ($165/MT) in 2020/21.

Partly as a result, all wheat area planted for harvest in 2020 was estimated at almost 44.5 million acres (about 17.9 million hectares), down 2% from 2019 and the lowest since USDA records began in 1919.

Source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

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Dependable People: A Spotlight on the Arizona Grain Research and Promotion Council

For 40 years, U.S. wheat farmers have supported U.S. Wheat Associates’ (USW) efforts to work directly with buyers and promote their six classes of wheat. Their contributions to state wheat commissions, who in turn contribute a portion of those funds to USW, qualifies USW to apply for export market development funds managed by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service. Currently, 17 state wheat commissions are USW members and this series highlights those partnerships and the work being done state-by-state to provide unmatched service. Behind the world’s most reliable supply of wheat are the world’s most dependable people – and that includes our state wheat commissions.

Member: Arizona Grain Research and Promotion Council
USW Member since 1987

Location: Phoenix, Ariz.
Classes of Wheat Grown: Durum
USW Leadership: Michael Edgar, 2008/09 Chairman

The Arizona Grain Research and Promotion Council utilizes grower check-off funds to aid in marketing for wheat and barley, to participate in research projects and other programs to assist in reducing freshwater consumption, to develop new grain varieties and to improve grain production, harvesting and handling methods. The Council is made up of seven Arizona grain producers appointed by the Governor.

Arizona farmers were growing durum wheat widely in the decades before 1980. As improved varieties were developed to provide consistently excellent semolina for fine quality pasta, growers identified an opportunity to promote their durum overseas. After the AGRPC was authorized by the state legislature in 1985, representatives attended a U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) meeting in 1986 and joined USW in January 1987.

Today, Arizona growers work with USW to promote Desert Durum®, an identity protected by a legal certification mark and owned jointly by the AGRPC and the California Wheat Commission. Desert Durum® is grown only under irrigation in the desert valleys and lowlands of Arizona and California.

Why is export market development important to Arizona wheat farmers and why do they continue to support USW and its activities?

Arizona’s growers are very favorably leveraged by USW’s promotional efforts around the world. Arizona’s growers receive just as much respect from USW and its export promotional programs as do its large wheat-producing members. This has been the case for 33 years and counting.

About half of the annual production of Desert Durum® (Arizona and California combined) has been exported for many years, with Italy as the perennial leading export destination, followed by Nigeria. One reason for Italy’s continued purchase of Desert Durum® is that Italian pasta makers value the consistent semolina quality of Desert Durum® and are willing to pay more for its grain than for durum from other origins.

USW assists its members in numerous ways to educate growers and the public about the importance and role of wheat production and export in their states. Some of the means of providing such assistance include arranging board teams of state representatives to visit existing and potential importing countries and organizing trade teams of foreign customer representatives to visit U.S. wheat class production regions. USW members greatly appreciate these opportunities to promote their wheat classes for both export domestic audiences.

USW also publishes annual crop quality reports that characterize both Northern durum and Desert Durum® separately. This distinction allows potential customers to verify the uniform large kernel size, low moisture content, and other grain and processing traits of Desert Durum® that produce very desirable semolina quality.

How have Arizona wheat farmers recently connected with overseas customers?

One member of AGRPC has integrated export market development work through USW into his company’s efforts to provide customers with high quality grains for Identity Preserved markets. Michael Edgar, President of Barkley Seeds, Yuma, Ariz., for more than 30 years has participated in several overseas trade missions organized by USW, including his engagement in a trip to Morocco, Italy and Israel in 2016 to promote Desert Durum® and other U.S. wheat classes. Edgar served as an officer with USW including as its Chair in 2008/09.

AGRPC member Michael Edgar has worked for more than 30 years with USW to promote exports of Desert Durum® and all U.S. wheat classes. Here Edgar (right) accepts the USW Chairman’s gavel in 2008 from outgoing Chairman Ron Suppes, a Kansas Wheat commission member and farmer.

Edgar (second from left) joined other farmer directors of USW on a trade mission to Italy, Morocco and Israel in 2016.

AGRPC member Eric Wilkey has traveled to Latin America with a USW board team, joined by growers from Montana and Oklahoma. He learned that the excellent quality of Desert Durum® is recognized by pasta makers in that region.

Arizona and grower members of AGRPC have also been privileged to entertain numerous USW trade teams from most of the regions that have traveled to the U.S. to learn about the country’s durum producers and their production efforts.

AGRPC member Eric Wilkey joined growers from Montana and Oklahoma on a USW trade team to Latin America.

In 2012, Wilkey described the nature of the Desert Durum® industry to members of Group FORAFRIC, a Moroccan milling firm, who made a self-sponsored visit to Arizona and California, facilitated by USW, to investigate the production and purchase of Desert Durum®.

What is happened lately in Arizona that overseas customers should know about?

Arizona hosts several private breeding programs that focus intensely on the varietal traits desired by local wheat growers, such as yield, standability and pest resistance, as well as the quality traits that pasta manufacturing customers covet, including bright amber color, strong gluten strength and high falling number.

Here is a wheat breeding nursery like those maintained by each of the private breeding enterprises in Arizona, which has no publicly supported wheat breeding program. AGRPC does support grain production research conducted by the University of Arizona.

AGRPC recently commissioned a University of Arizona study that reviewed a wide range of literature related to water use by irrigated grain production in a desert environment. The paper concluded that Arizona’s durum wheat production, as currently practiced, has a water footprint that is lower, to much lower, than evidenced in many other durum production regions.

Learn more about the Arizona Grain Research and Promotion Council on its website here and on Facebook.

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USW Travels to Montana to Capture Final Images to Showcase U.S. Wheat Supply Chain

In 2019, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) started a project to produce a video that focuses on the people who contribute to the wholesome quality of U.S. wheat for dozens of different food products around the world. Together with our creative partners, we traveled to Kansas, Ohio, Washington, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Oregon to capture the images and words of U.S. wheat farm families, and other participants along the supply chain, including wheat breeders, grain elevator managers, grain inspectors, exporters, and more. After a few delays, including COVID-19, a small team was recently able to travel to Montana, the final stop on our list, to visit with the Hucke family during harvest.

Angie and Will Hucke are third generation farmers and ranchers from Geraldine, about 40 miles (65 km) east of Great Falls in Montana’s “Golden Triangle,” where they grow winter wheat, spring wheat, hay barley and occasionally rotate in yellow peas. Previously, Angie had a corporate job and opted to leave that lifestyle to return to the family farm.

“I enjoyed working in the corporate world, I was able to learn from the most amazing women in that job,” said Angie. “But the office grind was hard for me, doing the same things day by day was not for me. I enjoy the new challenge that each day brings on the farm.”

Part of returning to the family farm meant being involved in their community and raising their kids, son, Arrow (11), and daughter, Jetta (9) in an environment where they learn about “hard work, taking pride in a job well down and learning that work can be fun.” This year, Arrow drove the grain cart – his first time being able to help with harvest, and it was clear how excited and proud he was. Both are very involved in 4-H, rodeo and helping with chores on the farm.

“The passion I have seen my kids develop for agriculture is what makes this so amazing,” said Angie.

 

Our team spoke with Angie about the importance of women in agriculture with hands-on roles and the obstacles faced when working on a multi-generational family farm.

“Communication is key, but often, that is the piece that is the hardest,” said Angie. “You also have to continually build trust and have a little faith that it is all going to work out.”

Along with being featured in USW’s video telling the story of the U.S. wheat supply chain – which is due to be published in a few weeks – the Hucke family will be featured in its own video as a part of the USW “Stories from the Wheat Farm” series. So far, USW has published three videos in that series – Kansas, Ohio, and Washington – and have videos from North Dakota, Oklahoma and Oregon scheduled to publish in the coming weeks.

USW wants to thank Montana Wheat and Barley Committee Executive Vice President Cassidy Marn for her help arranging our visit. And thank you to the Hucke family for giving their time and effort to share their story at one of their busiest, but most hopeful, times of the year.

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Wheat Industry News

Recent news and highlights from around the wheat industry.

Speaking of Wheat: “While the past five months has turned our business, economic and personal worlds upside down, we have learned a great deal about ourselves and our resilience as people and as an industry. We have learned we all have immense capacity and untapped creativity helping us work through this pandemic and continue supplying critical food resources for our people and the world.” – Vince Peterson, President, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW), from remarks to a virtual meeting with Japanese flour millers and wheat food processors, July 31, 2020.

NAWG OpEd: As Drought Conditions Continue to Spread Across Farm Country, Importance Of Crop Insurance Is Reinforced. High Plains Journal recently published an opinion editorial by National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) President and Michigan wheat farmer Dave Milligan. In his piece, Milligan discusses the importance of crop insurance for America’s wheat farmers especially as many have experienced extreme drought conditions these past few months. Read here.

Commentary: The Long, Positive Relationship Between U.S. Wheat Farmers and Japan. USW President Vince Peterson recently wrote in a Capital Press op-ed about the long, positive relationship between U.S. wheat farmers and Japan. Read the op-ed here.

OK Wheat Brief Summer 2020. The Oklahoma Wheat Commission released its Summer 2020 Wheat Brief Newsletter on July 30, 2020. This newsletter discusses the continued explorations for product enhancement and field trial initiatives, trade updates, the “Governor’s Wheat Challenge” along with current virtual educational and recipe promotions. Read the entire Wheat Brief here.

The Strange Case of Unsolicited Seed Mailings. A very unusual situation occurred in the United States recently when small packages of various seeds were apparently mailed from overseas to a seemingly random selection of U.S. citizens. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) and state departments of agriculture quickly warned people not to open nor plant the seeds, but instead to turn them in to authorities. None of the packages appeared to include wheat seeds. The American Seed Trade Association has posted more information on its website.

Registration Underway for Three September IAOM-KSU Milling Courses. IAOM has joined with Kansas State University’s IGP Institute to offer a variety of milling courses, which will be held in Manhattan, Kan. Register for these classes here. 

Subscribe to USW Reports. USW publishes a variety of reports and content that are available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts, the weekly Price Report and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online. Visit our Facebook page at for the latest updates, photos and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and more on LinkedIn.

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Trade Policy Opportunities and Competitive Prices Support U.S. Wheat Export Sales Early in the Marketing Year

By Claire Hutchins, USW Market Analyst

USDA estimates the United States will export 25.9 million metric tons (MMT) of wheat in 2020/21, 2 percent behind last year’s pace if realized. However, two months into marketing year (MY) 2020/21, total U.S. wheat commercial sales are 8 percent ahead of last year’s pace at 9.62 MMT and are 12 percent ahead of the 5-year average.

To date, export sales of hard red spring (HRS) wheat, white wheat and durum are significantly ahead of last year’s pace. Sales of hard red winter (HRW) wheat are nearly in line with last year, while sales of soft red winter (SRW) lag 2019/20. Success in individual markets such as China and Brazil due to policy changes and strong education programs by U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) are supporting overall sales. As in other markets, competitive pricing for U.S. wheat is helping fuel a faster import pace by traditionally strong U.S. wheat buyers like the Philippines, Japan and South Korea.

Here is more detail about the current factors underlying U.S. wheat export sales.

HRS. Total HRS export sales of 2.85 MMT are 28 percent ahead of this time last year and are 12 percent ahead of the 5-year average. Sales to the Philippines, the top market for HRS, are 23 percent ahead of last year at 768,000 MT and are 52 percent ahead of the 5-year average. Rising per capita consumption combined with population growth and competitive HRS prices are supporting strong sales to the Philippines early in MY 2020/21.

In Japan, the second largest market for HRS, sales of 379,000 MT are up 52 percent on the year.

“We had good start this year in the Japanese market following the U.S. and Japan trade agreement implemented on January 1,” said Rick Nakano, USW Country Director in Japan. “This gives U.S. wheat a better opportunity to be traded on equal footing with similar classes of wheat from Canada. This results in a great outcome for U.S. wheat to satisfy the needs of Japanese millers that now pay the same price mark-up as for Canadian wheat. Additionally, the relative price increase for Canadian spring wheat has also supported HRS demand in the Japanese market.”

Source: USDA ERS export sales data as of July 23, 2020

White. Total U.S. white wheat sales are 23 percent ahead of last year at 1.93 MMT, 12 percent ahead of the 5-year average. In South Korea, the second largest market for U.S. soft white wheat, export sales are up 27 percent on the year and are 4 percent ahead of the 5-year average.

“The price of U.S. white wheat has been much more competitive than comparable Australian classes during the first and second quarter of 2020,” said C.Y. Kang, USW Country Director in South Korea. Kang added that HRS and U.S. white wheat sales to South Korea are up on the year in part because South Korean instant noodle production is up on increased demand during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Sales to Japan, the third largest market for U.S. white wheat are 3 percent ahead of this time last year at 235,000 MT.

“The demand for U.S. Western White (WW) wheat, a blend of U.S. soft white wheat and U.S. club wheat, has been stable in Japan with strong consumption for confectionery products including sponge cake and biscuits. U.S. WW is a unique product and cannot be substituted by Australian, Canadian or domestically grown Japanese wheat,” said Nakano.

Source: USDA ERS export sales data as of July 23, 2020; about 99% of white wheat sales are soft white and soft white sub-classes

HRW. Total HRW sales are slightly below last year at 3.52 MMT, but 21 percent ahead of the 5-year average. Strong export programs to China and Brazil are supporting HRW sales in the first few months of 2020/21.

As of July 23, China has purchased 669,000 metric tons (MT) of HRW after no purchases in 2019/20. Strong HRW export sales so far in 2020/21 can be attributed to the Phase One agreement between the United States and China and HRW’s competitive prices compared to other classes of U.S. wheat. So far in marketing year 2020/21, China is the largest market for HRW.

HRW export sales to Brazil are more than double this time last year at 257,000 MT and are 85 percent ahead of the 5-year average. According to Miguel Galdos, USW Regional Director in South America, increased sales to Brazil can be attributed to the Brazilian government opening a tariff rate quota (TRQ) which allows up to 750,000 MT of non-Mercosur (South America’s free trade bloc) wheat to enter the country tariff-free. Strong educational programs in Brazil by USW are encouraging millers to take advantage of the high quality and competitive prices of U.S. wheat. To date, Brazil is the fifth largest market for HRW.

“USW provides the best trade and technical service to our customers and we are here for Brazilian mills for any need they have,” said Galdos.

Source: USDA ERS export sales data as of July 23, 2020

Durum. Total durum export sales are 6 percent ahead of this time last year at 385,000 MT and are 57 percent ahead of the 5-year average. Export sales to Italy, the largest market for U.S. durum, are more than double this time last year and are significantly higher than the 5-year average.

“Italy needs the high protein content of durum from North America, because it does not produce enough high protein durum locally,” said Rutger Koekoek, USW Regional Marketing Director for the European Region.

It is expected that Italy will produce an average volume of durum this year and will need to import large volumes of North American durum wheat again in MY 2020/21.

“I am still expecting an above average export volume of U.S. durum to Italy this marketing year,” said Koekoek.

SRW export sales are a different story. Total SRW export sales are down 21 percent on the year to 927,000 MT, 17 percent behind the 5-year average.

“It is a price story,” said one grain trader, “we’re priced out of the world market, especially to our buyers in Latin America and Nigeria.” Between early January and late July, the average export price for SRW was $234/MT, 8 percent higher than the same period last year and 12 percent higher than the 5-year average.

In Colombia, the second largest market for SRW, export sale of 73,000 MT are 18 percent behind last year’s pace and 22 percent behind the 5-year average.

“Colombian mills bought more wheat than they needed between March and May due to demand uncertainty around COVID-19. They are now covered for the next couple of months. Higher prices are also impacting 2020/21 SRW sales to Colombia,” said Galdos.

High SRW export prices early in 2020, which continued into late July, are also having a significant impact on SRW demand in Nigeria, which has imported no SRW yet in 2020/21.

Source: USDA ERS export sales data as of July 23, 2020

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U.S. Contests Chinese Programs that Create Burdensome Wheat Stocks

By Dalton Henry, USW Vice President of Policy

The dispute between the Chinese and U.S. government over wheat production subsidies continues. Late last month, the U.S. government officially challenged China’s purported compliance with the World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute decision that found China spent billions more on agricultural subsidies than their WTO membership allowed. That case was filed in 2016 by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to bring the Chinese programs – and their effects on U.S. wheat producers – under control.

The subsidy programs at the heart of the WTO dispute are China’s Minimum Procurement Prices (MPP) guarantee to Chinese producers. This program would be most similar in U.S. farm policy to our Marketing Loan program. But unlike the U.S. version, the MPP is set well above world wheat prices and, as such, creates an artificial incentive for farmers produce more wheat at the expense of a more diverse range of crops. Last year’s MPP for wheat in China was $8.60/bushel; compare that to the U.S. Marketing Loan program at $3.38/bushel and to current U.S. FOB HRW prices at $5.69/bushel.

It is no wonder then why Chinese producers have dramatically increased wheat production, up 25 percent from before the policy was put in place. Even more distorting to the global market, much of that production is building stocks rather than being made available at affordable prices to China’s flour millers. Those stocks are projected to end this year at an astounding 162.5 million metric tons (MMT), comprising 52 percent of the entire world’s wheat ending stocks. That volume represents more than an entire year’s consumption in China.

 

USDA currently predicts that China will hold more than 162 MMT of world wheat stocks at the end of marketing year 2020/21.

 

The WTO dispute panel recognized this issue in ruling that China had far exceeded its WTO limits on wheat and rice subsidies. In the process of a WTO case, once a ruling has been issued the involved countries agree to a “reasonable period of time” for the policies to be changed and for the offending country to come into compliance. The reasonable period for this case ended last month with China claiming (and the United States disagreeing) that they were in compliance.

A closer look at China’s claims of compliance reveals changes designed only to work on paper. China notified changes to their policy for the coming year that attempt to cap the amount of wheat that the Chinese government will purchase at the MPP. In theory, a laudable effort, but in practice one with little impact, as the cap is set to be at 37 MMT, 40 percent more than their five-year average annual purchases.

As a result, the cap allows China to adjust the math behind calculating their compliance, without actually changing anything about the operation of the program or the unfortunate creation of burdensome stocks. That’s because with a cap set so far above previous purchase amounts, a farmer can approach a flour miller and demand to be paid the MPP. If the miller refuses, the farmer knows the government will purchase the wheat at the inflated MPP. That dynamic allows the distorting effects of the MPP to reach far beyond the actual bushels that the Chinese government purchases.

Market-based reform will have the potential to improve the situation dramatically for Chinese millers, as wheat would be grown and traded according to quality attributes and actual value, rather than that set by government regs. It would also pave the way to reducing the current wheat storage burden – one similar to the situation faced by China’s corn industry just a few years ago. In that instance, program reforms worked and brought stocks to reasonable levels, providing domestic users with more choice and storage capacity.

China’s wheat subsidies and the excess stocks that they produce have been well-documented by U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) and other groups over time, as has the revenue losses they create for U.S. farmers and indeed other farmers around the world.

USW welcomes the continued work on this case by the USTR and hopes to see an end to distortive policies like this that impede our ability to meet global demand for a diverse supply of high-quality wheat.

 

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