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2021 Desert Durum® and California Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop Quality

Desert Durum ® is a registered certification mark of the Arizona Grain Research and Promotion Council and the California Wheat Commission, which authorize its use only to designate durum grown under irrigation in the desert valleys and lowlands of Arizona and California.

Desert Durum ® can be produced and delivered “identity preserved” to domestic and export markets, which allows customers to purchase grain with quality traits specific to their processing needs. Annual requirements can be pre-contracted with grain merchandisers ahead of the fall-winter planting season for harvest in late May through early July. Varietal identity is maintained by experienced growers planting certified seed and merchandisers who store and ship according to customers’ preferred delivery schedules.

Desert Durum ® exhibits consistently large kernels and low moisture, traits that contribute to efficient transportation costs and high extraction rates. The 2021 crop will deliver the valuable milling, semolina and pasta quality traits that customers have learned to expect and appreciate.

Production

Desert Durum ® Production acreage in 2021 was lower than 2020. According to USDA, yields were 2.61 tons/acre, and quality was uniformly good. Powell was the most widely grown variety in California and Arizona. Alberto was the second most grown durum variety.

2021 Crop Quality Highlights

  • The overall grade sample average for the 2021 Desert Durum ® harvest survey is U.S. No. 1 Hard Amber Durum (HAD).
  • Test weight is indicative of sound wheat and a uniform crop with an average of 83.2 kg/hl (63.9 lb/bu).
  • Average Damaged kernels are 0% and Total defects are 0.6%.
  • The average Vitreous kernel (HVAC) content is 98.7%, a high average typical of Desert Durum ®.
  • Wheat protein content average is 13.9% (12% mb), consistent with the 5-year average.
  • Kernel moisture content is low at 7.5%, a characteristic of Desert Durum ®.
  • The semolina b* value is 32.5, similar to last year’s 32.7
  • Wet gluten average is 36.1% and Gluten index average is 69.
  • Mixograph score is 7.0 and alveograph W value is 191 (10-4 J).
  • Spaghetti color b* value is 44 and color SCORE is 10.1, higher than last year and the 5-year average.
  • Spaghetti cooked firmness average is 7.2, similar to last year and above the 5-year average

For more information on 2021 Desert Durum ® crop quality, review the detailed report on the U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) website.

2021 California Hard Red Winter Wheat

California’s wheat growing regions are defined by climate, value of alternative crops and distinct differences in variety selection. Most California hard wheat is planted from October to January and harvested in June and July. With the strong demand for new crop wheat in the domestic marketplace, importers are encouraged to express their interest in purchasing California wheat in early spring.

California hard wheat varieties are known for their low moisture and large and uniform kernel size. Because wheat is predominantly grown under irrigation, growers achieve high yields and consistent quality. Overall, the majority of the 2021 crop has medium protein. Consistent with other years, the 2021 crop has low moisture, high flour extraction and strong baking performance — all of which make California wheat suitable for blending.

Weather and Production

California had below average rainfall in 2020/21, and in wheat growing regions rainfall was just over 50% of the 10-year average. Drought in the Sacramento Valley and the northern San Joaquin Valley was even more pronounced; this negatively affected stand establishment and early growth and was compounded by predation of stands by migratory geese. Disease incidence was relatively low; however, stripe rust was reported in the Delta region and the northern San Joaquin Valley. Weather during grain filling was dry and average-to-cooler-than-average in much of the state. Overall, yields were average or below average.

2021 Crop Quality Highlights

  • The overall grade sample average collected for the 2021 California HRW harvest survey is U.S. No. 1 HRW.
  • Test weight averages are indicative of sound wheat and a uniform crop with a medium protein average of 83.2 kg/hl (63.3 lb/bu) and high protein average of 81.7 kg/hl (62.1 lb/bu).
  • Kernel moisture content is low with medium protein at 9.6% and high protein at 9.7%.
  • The average wheat falling number for medium and high protein was 344 seconds and 369 seconds, respectively.
  • Laboratory mill flour extraction for medium protein was 68.2% and high protein was 66.6%.
  • This crop demonstrates excellent baking performance with an average loaf volume or medium protein at 900 cc and high protein at 945 cc.

For more information on 2021 California hard red winter and hard white crop quality, review the detailed report on the USW website.

2021 Crop Quality Data on Other U.S. Wheat Classes

Hard Red Spring
Soft White
Hard Red Winter
Soft Red Winter
Northern Durum
Hard White

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A First Time Wheat Farmer Shares Her Experience

By Sarah Ahrens, Agriculture Promotion Coordinator, Nebraska Wheat Board

Editor’s Note: This article first appeared in October 2020 on the Nebraska Wheat Board section of www.nebraskawheat.com. It is reprinted with permission. Sarah reports that as a first time wheat farmer, her crop turned out very well with excellent yields and quality that matched wheat harvested in 2021 in her region of Nebraska. 

Hey everyone, my name is Sarah and I serve as the Agriculture Promotion Coordinator for the Nebraska Wheat Board. I come from a farming background as my husband and our family raise corn and soybeans, cattle and hogs. After working for the wheat industry this past year, I finally talked my husband into planting some wheat this fall…except he decided wheat production should be my project!

Let it be known, I have an A+ record for being a good passenger in tractors during planting season, but I have never tackled that project on my own. This year, I will be in charge of all wheat production aspects from the day the seed goes in the ground to the last day of harvest. I am excited about this opportunity, and I know I have a lot of great wheat producers who will help me along each step of the way.

Sarah Ahrens, Nebraska Wheat Board, a first time wheat farmer

Sarah Ahrens took on wheat management on her family’s farm in Eastern Nebraska in 2020.

As part of my job with the Nebraska Wheat Board, I get to work with producers from all across the state. Mark Knobel is the District 6 director and is located in Fairbury and represents the eastern half of the state. When it came time to order our seed for the year, I reached out to a local Extension agent, Nathan Mueller, and Mark about the best varieties to use and best planting dates. Mark grows, treats and sells Certified Seed in Nebraska.

Certified seed meets the quality requirements set by Nebraska Seed Law and the Federal Seed Act and assures the buyer of obtaining reliable performance of the variety purchased. Once we determined the best variety to plant in our area, we worked with Mark to purchase the seed and have it delivered to our farm. Near the end of this summer, Nathan put together an image of the best planting dates in Nebraska based on temperature records and previous information. This year, our region’s planting date is set at October 10th, though having it in the ground a little before then is our ultimate goal. Nathan does a great job working with and educating producers in eastern Nebraska about wheat. To read more of his information, you can visit his website at: http://croptechcafe.org/winterwheat/.

After researching seed varieties and speaking with the experts, we decided to purchase two different varieties: LCS Valiant by Limagrain and SY Wolverine by Syngenta. Both of these varieties are well adapted to the eastern side of Nebraska where we receive an annual precipitation of 30 inches and they also have good resistance to Fusarium Head Blight (scab) which tends to be an issue in our area. Fusarium Head Blight reduces overall wheat yield and produces mycotoxins, a toxic substance produced by fungus, that impact both human and animal health. Producing the safest wheat is a top priority, so we are taking the appropriate steps to reduce disease in our wheat.

One of the varieties we are planting, LCS Valiant, though it is licensed and marketed by Limagrain, was actually developed at the University of Nebraska – Lincoln (UNL) by Dr. Stephen Baenziger [now retired]. Dr. Baenziger has been UNL’s small grains breeder for 34 years and has developed 44 wheat, 6 barley and 13 triticale varieties. The full research and development process from crossing lines to field trials and finally licensing the variety takes about 10 years. When a variety has been approved by the variety release committee, it is then licensed to either a state crop improvement association, certified seed grower or private company.

Seed Tag with Sarah Ahrens' name

Sarah selected LCS Valiant variety of hard red winter wheat that was developed by the public breeding program at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln and licensed for marketing by Limagrain. though it is licensed to Limagrain company for commercial sale.

Husker Genetics is the foundation seed department of UNL that sells foundation soybeans, wheat, barley, triticale, sorghum, millet, proso millets, dry edible beans and grass seed to certified seed growers. Husker Genetics works with producers all across the state who are certified seed growers, to grow and process the seed each year.  Wheat is one of the leading products sold by Husker Genetics. University programs all across the country account for more than 40% of the wheat seed sold each year, which makes funding for these programs a top priority for entities such as the wheat commissions all across the U.S.

The Nebraska Wheat Board was founded in 1955 when the Nebraska Legislature passed the Nebraska Wheat Resources Act. Today, the Nebraska Wheat Board collects an excise tax of four-tenths of one percent (0.4%) of net value at the point of first sale on all wheat sold in the state. This money is then directed into five categories to promote the industry: marketing (international and domestic), research, federal farm policy, and education and promotion. The Nebraska Wheat Board is directed by a seven-member board, appointed by the Governor, who then invests the collected funds into each of the five categories.

The Nebraska Wheat Board recognizes the importance of marketing the state’s wheat both internationally and domestically but also strives to invest a significant portion of its budget into research. UNL varieties account for over one-third of the wheat grown in the state. With new disease and insect issues, as well as continually improving drought tolerance and increasing yield and milling and baking qualities, it is important for research at UNL to be funded because it will most benefit the producer.

As I have learned over the past 11 months in my position, a lot of work is done before the seed even gets to the farmer. It gives me peace of mind to know that many of the varieties planted in Nebraska are developed and tried right here in our state and then the seed is grown and treated by local farmers themselves. There is a sense of security when you know that your crop has been developed and tested for your area specifically and there is data to back up its proven performance.

I am excited to try my hand at being a first time wheat farmer and understand the production practices that help grow a good wheat crop. I plan on using my farm trials as a part of our crop progress reports this upcoming spring and summer as well. I should give a big thank you to my husband for working with me through this process. He has agreed to teach me how to run all the equipment, help me understand application timing and why, and answer all of my questions to the best of his ability. I look forward to this new challenge and I am excited to see what I can gain from it.

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Transporting the Crop: U.S. Grain Handlers Ask, “What Can We Do for You?”

As U.S. grain handlers transport wheat from the farm to grain companies by truck, river or rail, it is tested and sorted to meet customer specifications at every step of its journey to export elevators on the Gulf, Great Lakes or Pacific Northwest.

Logistics are a critical part of the work grain handlers do to make sure U.S. wheat arrives at export houses in peak condition and they take their jobs seriously. General Manager Paul Katovich and his colleagues at Highline Grain in Washington state think about the farm families they have served for generations. At the same time, like grain handlers across the United States, his organization is upgrading processes, storage and facilities to ensure those farmers and, ultimately, customers overseas are well served.

“We are all stewards of this platform,” Katovich said. “It is why we do what we do … with a greater purpose. What we talk about internally, in a group setting or when we go overseas, or when we have customers come here is, ‘What is it that we can do for you.’”

As a part of its film, “Wholesome: The Journey of U.S. Wheat,”  USW is sharing individual chapters of the video throughout the year. “Grain Handlers: Transporting the Crop” provides more information about the essential work of U.S. grain handlers.

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Wheat Industry News

Recent news and highlights from around the U.S. wheat industry.

Speaking of Wheat. “Wheat, and especially grain, have become valuable sources of foreign capital in a sanctions-hit economy. Some even anticipate Russian grain becoming the Kremlin’s new oil — a commodity through which to keep some countries dependent on its resources — or to at least open doors to others.” – Nastassia Astrasheuskaya, author of a Sept. 9, 2021, article in Financial Times.

Rail Merger Announced. Kansas City Southern (KCS) railroad and Canadian Pacific (CP) Rail announced on Sept. 16 they have entered into a merger agreement, under which CP has agreed to acquire KCS in a stock and cash transaction. This would create the first single-rail network serving Canada, the United States and Mexico. In a release, CP stated that “the U.S. Surface Transportation Board review of CP’s proposed control of KCS is expected to be completed in the second half of 2022. Upon obtaining control approval, the two companies will be integrated fully over the ensuing three years.” Read the CP announcement here.

Influencing Future Crops. The U.S. National Science Foundation is working to find “better ways for people to monitor what crop plants need,” noted an article in AgriPulse. It is one goal of a research center dubbed CROPPS (Center for Research on Programmable Plant Systems) focused on the new field of digital biology. The National Science Foundation has funded the center at Cornell University where researchers at the University of Illinois-Urbana Champaign and the University of Arizona will use a multidisciplinary approach to develop tools to generate new data to help breed plants that can reach their full production potential under variable growing conditions.

British Prime Minister addressing Parliament.Why Was Boris Johnson Wearing Wheat on His Lapel? The British Prime Minister, members of the British Parliament recently wore wheat heads as a symbol honoring British farmers and the United Kingdom’s food production. The British National Farmers’ Union (NFU) created the symbol to improve awareness for local farming by celebrating “Back British Farming Day.” U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) honors wheat farmers around the world who provide healthy, wholesome food every day.

U.S. Wheat Associates Publishes Commercial Sales every Thursday, documenting wheat export sales-to-date by country and class for the current marketing year compared to the previous marketing year on the same date. The report includes a 10-year commercial sales history by class and country. Data is sourced from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Weekly Export Sales Report. Read the latest report on the USW website.

Subscribe to USW Reports. USW publishes various reports and content that are available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts, the weekly Price Report and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online. Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and more on LinkedIn.

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Study the U.S. Wheat Export Supply System With Our Exclusive Map

In 2020, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) introduced the first digital map of the U.S. wheat export supply system as a visual planning tool for its overseas representatives and their customers. The “USW Wheat Export Supply System” map is posted here on the USW website and was built in cooperation with Heartland GIS using funds from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Agricultural Trade Promotion program.

“With six distinct wheat classes grown across many states and delivered by many different routes, the U.S. wheat supply chain truly is driven by geography,” said USW Vice President of Overseas Operations Mike Spier. “The map provides a geographical information system that our team of representatives can use to help the world’s wheat buyers literally see where the wheat they are buying is grown and how it can be transported to the export elevator.”

“Assisting overseas customers is a very important service that helps add value to U.S. wheat,” said USW Vice President of Communications Steve Mercer. “This map is a unique and very useful addition to the trade service our representatives conduct all around the world.”

Picture of U.S. wheat export supply map.

The map includes a selection tool that allows the viewer to identify, in any combination, U.S. wheat production by class, wheat shuttle loading terminals, Class 1 U.S. rail lines and spurs, river terminals, major rivers and export elevator locations.

“Working with U.S. Wheat Associates and its state wheat commissions, we used data from multiple sources, including satellite imagery, to identify wheat planted area between 2013 and 2019,” said Todd Tucky, Owner and Senior Consultant of Heartland GIS. “I believe this is the most accurate representation ever developed of where individual wheat classes have been produced in the United States.”

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USDA’s Latest Look at Exportable Wheat Supplies

On Tuesday, Sept. 14, 2021, U.S wheat futures gained as much as 2% after key wheat-producing nations lowered their production outlooks. With harvest nearly wrapped up in the Northern Hemisphere, the most recent USDA Supply & Demand (WASDE) report brought an updated look at key exporting countries and regions.

USDA currently expects 2021/22 world exportable wheat supplies will be about 221 MMT, down from an estimated 231 MMT in 2020/21.

United States

The 2021 harvest is virtually complete with only a few pockets of hard red spring (HRS) remaining to be harvested and about 10% of the durum crop still in the field. Except for soft red winter (SRW), all U.S. wheat classes saw lower production compared to 2020/21. Proteins were all higher than the 5-year average and growing regions that saw longer periods of hot, dry weather, including the Pacific Northwest (PNW) soft white (SW) region and the state of North Dakota, where the bulk of HRS and durum wheat is grown, saw protein averages reach as much as 1.8 points above the 5-year average.

USDA forecasts U.S. wheat production in 2020/21 will total 46.2 MMT, down 7% compared to 2020/21 following lower than average yields for SW, HRS and durum. Total U.S. wheat exports are expected to reach 23.8 MMT, which is down significantly from last year.

Click here to read more about the 2021 U.S. wheat harvest.

U.S. wheat supply and demand

Source: USDA, September 2021

Canada

After a record-setting 2020 wheat harvest, Canada’s total 2021 wheat crop is forecast to drop sharply. Stats Canada, in its latest report released this month, used satellite images and other data to estimate production. The Western Canadian spring wheat crop is expected to be 15.3 MMT, a 41% drop compared to last year, which would be the smallest spring wheat crop since 2007. Total wheat production is projected at 21.7 MMT, down 38% compared to 2020/21. The decline in production is blamed on hot, dry weather that persisted throughout the growing season.

Canadian wheat supply and demend

Source: USDA, September 2021

European Union (EU)

France’s farm ministry lowered its estimate for 2021 soft (non-durum) wheat by more than 600,000 MT this month following a wet summer. Despite the reduction, the ministry emphasized that the forecast was 24% higher than last year’s harvest and 8% higher than the 5-year average. Strategié Grains noted that wet weather towards the end of the growing cycle led to disappointing yields in France and Germany, while hot, dry weather early in the summer challenged the wheat crop in Poland and the Baltics. On the other hand, Romania and Bulgaria had record-setting yields this year. According to Romania’s agriculture minister, yields there were 5.34 MT/ha (79.4 bu/ac). Bulgarian wheat production was up 51% compared to last year reported AgriCensus. Despite the increased production, persistent rain caused concern about milling quality with decreased test weight and falling number reported.

EU wheat supply and demand

Source: USDA, September 2021

Russia

The latest USDA WASDE report put Russian wheat production at 72.5 MMT, 12.5 MMT less than the USDA’s original forecast of 85.0 MMT. Russia’s agriculture ministry reported 69.3 MMT of wheat harvested as of Sept. 9 on 23.7 million hectares (58.5 million acres), 12% less than the same time last year.

Russian wheat supply and demand

Source: USDA, September 2021

Ukraine

An autumn drought last year reduced Ukraine’s winter grains planted area, but officials said farmers plan to plant 10% more winter wheat this year. The agriculture ministry reported the wheat harvest complete with 32.8 MMT in the bin with a yield of 4.66 MT/ha (69.20 bu/ac). The current wheat harvest is a record for the Black Sea exporter, and yields are 22% higher than last year’s reported AgriCensus. In 2021, Ukraine’s grain exports could reach 80.6 MMT according to their agriculture ministry. The latest WASDE report forecasts Ukrainian wheat exports to be 23.5 MMT, up significantly from last year.

Australia

Australia’s Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARES) reported “exceptionally favorable” growing conditions for the second year in a row and adjusted its wheat forecast up 17% to 32.63 MMT. The latest WASDE report forecast Australian wheat production at 31.5 MMT, up 1.5 MMT compared to the August report.

Argentina

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BAGE) reported 79% of all the wheat planted area had normal or excellent moisture levels. BAGE emphasized that Argentina’s wheat crop improved significantly following rainfall in the central and southern planted areas. The USDA left its production forecast unchanged from last month at 20.5 MMT.

By Michael Anderson, USW Market Analyst

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An Eye on the United Nations Food System Summit

The United Nations (UN) is set for a major discussion on the world’s food system when it hosts the Food System Summit (FSS) in New York City on September 23. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), World Food Program and International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) will jointly host the summit.

On the agenda are discussions and attempts at resolutions on all 17 global health, sustainability, and food systems “Sustainable Development Goals” (SDGs). A pre-summit was held in Italy this summer where much dialog took place on these topics.

The summit features five action tracks in which a variety of groups (such as governments and NGOs) can hold dialog events to express their many different views on how to work towards the UN’s SDGs. The five action tracks are:

  • Ensure access to safe and nutritious food for all;
  • Shift to sustainable consumption patterns;
  • Boost nature-positive production;
  • Advance equitable livelihoods;
  • Build resilience to vulnerabilities, shocks and stress.

Agriculture to Engage

U.S. wheat producers and their flour milling customers should not be overly concerned about the UN discussing sustainability and the food system, but they should remain cautious. These discussions will not likely lead to immediate actions. Yet the event may be cited later to develop FAO guideline documents, which other countries and activist NGOs may then use to develop their own domestic policies and agendas.

Such a result may or may not correlate to sustainable agricultural production. A good example of this is the EU’s recent “Farm to Fork” plan to drastically reduce fertilizer use by 20% and pesticide use by 50% by 2030 without any regard to curbing actual waste or with a specific environmental goal in place. If this idea were to be promoted by the UN or adopted by other countries, the impact on the global food supply and the environment could be devastating.

Therefore, it is important for the U.S. agriculture industry to be actively involved in these discussions at the UN FSS to help guide and influence science-based discussions for the future of agriculture and trade. USDA hosted three dialog events during 2021 in a lead up to the full summit this month.

Science-Based Approaches

The United Nations Food System Summit is highly focused on the food system, which goes from production to consumption. To continuously improve the world’s food system, a science-based approach must be used that allows the use of new technologies such as plant breeding innovations (PBIs) and environmentally safe use of fertilizers and pesticides. By using new technologies in agricultural production, it leads to a more sustainable world that uses fewer inputs while also producing more food on less land to meet the growing food demands of the world.

By Shelbi Knisley, Director of Trade Policy

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A Visit to an Export Elevator with United Grain Corporation

The United Grain Corporation (UGC) wheat, corn, and soybean export elevator in Vancouver, Wash., on the Columbia River, is the largest of its kind on the U.S. West Coast with storage of more than 220,000 metric tons. It was originally built in the 1920s and purchased by United Grain in 1970.

Like other U.S. facilities serving U.S. wheat buyers, the United Grain export elevator is part of the world’s most efficient supply system and is constantly improving.

“Every year we do upgrades and maintenance that make the facility the cutting edge operation it is today,” said Brian Liedl, UGC Director of Merchandising.

Video Tour

Earlier this year, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) worked with United Grain to record a video tour of this amazing export elevator facility. USW Vice President and West Coast Office Director Steve Wirsching joined Liedl on a walk around the entire elevator and a detailed discussion of its systems. The program covers shuttle trains arriving from interior elevators and rapidly unloading wheat, explains how the facility separates and stores wheat by class and quality, discusses its investment in high-speed cleaning systems, and the essential work of federal grain inspectors.

Federal Control

Inside the inspection office, Liedl explained to Wirsching that under U.S. law, grain weight is measured and quality is tested by the Federal Grain Inspection Service before it is loaded onto a vessel for delivery.

“After our shipping bins are filled, those independent inspectors have control of the grain and only release it to be loaded after they determine it meets that customer’s specifications,” he said.

This program was created originally as part of a three-day USW seminar called “Contracting for Wheat Value” for Chinese customers. We are sharing it here to demonstrate how U.S. grain companies and the federal government are working to ensure all importers get the wheat they want as efficiently as possible.

Thank you to United Grain Corporation for their collaboration on this video.

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Wheat Industry News

Recent news and highlights from around the U.S. wheat industry.

Speaking of Wheat. “I am already looking forward to the next [year]. Cautiously. Hopefully wiser. Praying for rain. For more understanding. Thankful for what we have, have had, and will have. That this one is behind us, and better times are on the horizon. We’ll see you in ‘22.” – Cassidy Marn, Executive Vice President, Montana Wheat and Barley Committee, in a message to industry as a challenging crop year was ending in the state.

Ask the Wheat Foods Council Anything. On Sept. 9, 2021, at 11 a.m. EDT, the Wheat Foods Council is bringing all four of its expert advisors together in its first “Ask Us Anything” webinar. Sports Nutrition, Diet & Exercise, Gut Health, and Wheat Breeding questions will all be addressed. Learn more and register for the webinar here.

High Prices, Strong Demand Mean Back-to-Back Records for U.S. Ag Exports. USDA recently projected that U.S. farm exports will set a sales record of $173.5 billion during the current fiscal year, far above the previous record of $156.8 billion. Sales in fiscal 2022 could reach $177.5 billion. China will account for $1 of every $5 in exports during the two-year span, USDA predicted. Read more here.

Borlaug Dialogue 2021. Offered in a virtual format October 20 to 22, this event will focus on several critical areas in food systems transformation including Research & Innovation; Gender Equity & Equitable Livelihoods; Nutrition-Sensitive Food Systems; and International Cooperation. The World Food Prize sponsor of the Borlaug Dialogue believes there is an opportunity to gain momentum toward improved food systems surrounding its event, the UN Food Systems Summit and other global events, Click here for more information.

Upcoming IGP Institute Flour Milling Courses. The IGP Institute in Manhattan, KS, has several upcoming flour milling short courses on its schedule. Courses in this curriculum area cover all aspects of managing the process from grain selection to finished products. Courses will explore technical milling, mill management practices, quality control, food safety, flowsheet design, process automation and controls, process efficiencies, hard and soft wheat milling, maintenance, and more. Learn more about course details and how to register here.

U.S. Wheat Associates Publishes Commercial Sales every Thursday, documenting wheat export sales-to-date by country and class for the current marketing year compared to the previous marketing year on the same date. The report includes a 10-year commercial sales history by class and country. Data is sourced from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Weekly Export Sales Report. Read the latest report on the USW website.

Subscribe to USW Reports. USW publishes various reports and content that are available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts, the weekly Price Report and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online. Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and more on LinkedIn.

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Farm Progress Survey Points to More Wheat, Corn, Soybean Acres

An August 2021 survey of 737 farmers across the United States conducted in late July by Farm Progress Publications suggests that wheat, corn and soybean planted area will be up for 2022.

Jacqueline Holland, writing in www.farmprogress.com, said the surveyed farmers estimated they will plant a total of 46.7 million acres of wheat. Farm Progress also noted recently that, if realized, 46.7 million acres of wheat would exceed “the smallest wheat acreage in history in 2020…by an astounding 5.4 million acres.”

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will release it’s annual Small Grains Summary report including wheat acreage, area planted and harvested, yield and production on Sept. 30, 2021.

Even with a potentially large 2022 U.S. wheat crop, the Farm Progress survey showed why wheat stocks could actually decline slightly through the next marketing year. The publication said it estimates 2022/23 U.S. wheat usage at just under 58 million metric tons (2.13 billion bushels) in part because of “higher export targets.” That would be the highest usage rate since 2016/17 and “consume all new production that comes online” in 2022 and, if realized, create the lowest stock-to-use percentage since 2013/14.

The image shows a table giving estimated acres farmers expect to plant as of August 2021.

The planted area estimate of 94.3 million acres of corn and 87.6 million acres of soybeans from the survey would mean the combined total planted area with wheat would be the third largest combined acreage on record.

Where Will Those Acres Come From?

Ms. Holland suggested that farmers in the Plains have some flexibility to change their crop rotations compared to farmers in the Eastern U.S. Corn Belt. She added that cattle herd numbers are down which could allow a shift from forage crops. And double-cropping wheat after soybeans remains a profitable choice.

The writer goes on to describe reasons why these rather bullish estimates may be tempered. For wheat, as for corn and soybeans, the estimates from the survey assume optimal weather conditions. Too many U.S. wheat farmers know optimal conditions are rare. In fact, the threat of continued drought through the winter wheat planting season will have an impact on seeded area for 2022.

China’s Influence

The author also noted that China will continue its outsized influence on global wheat, corn and soy supply and demand. Export demand levels could grow if China’s livestock feed demand grows and that will affect U.S. grain production profitability.

“Global livestock rations will likely waver between wheat and corn depending on market prices,” Ms. Holland wrote. “Any potential usage shifts could have significant impacts on pricing and acreage allocations in the 2022/23 marketing year.”

The rising cost of production inputs may also come into play as U.S. farmers make their cropping plans and weigh heavier on decisions should crop prices start to fall back.

Wheat Will Compete

Ms. Holland’s final point about the survey estimates is important for the world’s wheat buyers.

“…With winter wheat sowings just around the corner and wheat futures trading at lucrative prices,” she wrote, “expect wheat to be a strong competitor against corn and soybean in the 2022 acreage battle.

By Michael Anderson, USW Market Analyst

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