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U.S. Wheat Industry Leaders Meet in Kansas City

The boards of directors of U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) and the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) met jointly November 8 to 10, 2021 in Kansas City, Mo. Each organizations’ board includes wheat growers assigned to represent state wheat organizations. These U.S. wheat industry leaders meet together two times each year.

The work at a joint board meeting includes committee meetings specific to USW and NAWG as well as Joint International Trade and Wheat Breeding Innovation Committee meetings. There is a combined board meeting as well as individual board meetings.

At their joint session Nov. 10, U.S. wheat industry leaders heard a very interesting speech from Ms. Esther L. George, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, which is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, along with the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the nation’s central bank. The “Fed” as it is known works “in the public’s interest by supporting economic and financial stability.” Pres. George outlined several factors that are contributing to rising inflation in the United States specifically but also affecting the global economy. One of those factors is the dramatic disruption in global supply chains that have pushed up shipping costs and interrupted normal production and distribution of goods.

“Supplier delivery times have slowed dramatically, not only for manufacturers but also for service providers,” President George said, “in part as shipping times from Asia to the West Coast have doubled, and transit costs have skyrocketed.” While a text of Pres. George’s speech is not available, her recent speech at an energy conference includes many of the key points from her presentation to U.S. wheat leaders.

Other Interesting Speakers

On Nov. 10, Mr. Daniel Whitley, Administrator of USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), spoke to the USW board of directors about the long and successful public-private partnership between “cooperator” organizations like USW and FAS. He also noted the significant expected increase in U.S. agricultural exports for 2021/22 to more than $175 billion in value, which includes an estimated $7 billion in U.S. wheat exports.

USW Chair and President with Daniel Whitley

FAS Administrator Daniel Whitley (center) with USW Chairman Darren Padget (left) and USW President Vince Peterson (right) at the 2021 Fall USW Board of Directors meeting Nov. 10 in Kansas City, Missouri.

Joining the USW directors virtually, Greg Borossay, head of Maritime Business Development at the Port of San Diego, Cal., previewed expansion plans that will introduce bulk freight loading capacity, including for grains. In addition, he described progress on a U.S. Pacific Coast Marine Highway project to create barge service between San Diego and marine ports in central and northern California, Oregon and Washington state.

Global Wheat Supply and Demand Focus

Even more specific to U.S. wheat exports, USW Vice President of Overseas Operations Mike Spier provided a very thorough review of the supply and demand factors affecting global wheat trade. Focusing on the run-up in wheat prices, Spier noted that U.S. wheat ending stocks declined by 50% in just five years. He also noted that the ratio of wheat ending stocks to “disappearance” (domestic consumption plus exports) among global wheat exporting countries is now at 13%, a level not seen since the global wheat supply shock of 2007/08.

USW Vice President of Overseas Operations Mike Spier

USW Vice President of Overseas Operations Mike Spier provided an overview of global and U.S. wheat supply and demand factors at the USW Board of Directors meeting Nov. 10.

USW and NAWG directors will meet jointly again in January 2022 in Washington, D.C.

 

 

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2021 USW Crop Quality Report Now Available for The World’s Wheat Buyers

This year has once again provided its share of uncertainty for wheat producers, handlers and buyers. We have seen challenges from drought, variable trade policies and the ongoing global pandemic. Through it all, the entire U.S. wheat industry remained fixed on providing the highest quality wheat for almost every customer need, backed by transparent pricing, trusted third-party certification and unmatched service before and after the sale.

As a key part of its commitment to transparency and trade service, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) has produced its annual Crop Quality Report that includes grade, flour and baking data for all six U.S. wheat classes. The report compiles comprehensive data from analysis of hundreds of samples conducted during and after harvest by our partner organizations and laboratories. The report provides essential, objective information to help buyers get the wheat they need at the best value possible.

2021 USW Crop Quality ReportThe 2021 USW Crop Quality Report is now available for download in English, Spanish, French, Italian, Arabic and Portuguese. Chinese translations will be available soon. USW also shares more detailed, regional reports for all six U.S. wheat classes on its website, as well as additional information on its sample and collection methods, solvent retention capacity (SRC) recommendations, standard deviation tables and more. View and download these reports and resources here.

New Resources

USW continues to provide unique ways for our customers to experience and gain more knowledge about the 2021 U.S. wheat crop. New this year, USW has expanded its Crop Quality page on its primary website to include unique, individual pages for each of its six wheat classes. When viewing the website, users can access these new pages via the “Crop Quality” tab in the main menu across the top of the website.

For a second year, the pandemic has changed other traditional parts of the USW Crop Quality outreach effort. At https://cropquality.uswheat.org/, customers will find a variety of pre-recorded presentations covering 2021 U.S. wheat crop quality data and analysis, as well as several special topics in English or captioned versions in several different languages.

As always, USW local representatives are ready to help customers review their purchase specifications to receive the best value possible. For more information, please contact your local USW office here.

Continue to look for 2021 USW Crop Quality updates on Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn.

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Wheat Exporting Countries Control Just 18% of Global Stocks

By Michael Anderson, USW Market Analyst

As the U.S. wheat 2021/22 marketing year reaches its halfway point, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) summarizes market factors affecting global wheat supply and demand with its farmer board of directors. The data comes from USDA’s October reports, which will be updated on November 9. We want to share some information here, focusing on key wheat exporting countries.

USDA pegs 2021/22 world wheat production at a record 776 million metric tons (MMT), up 1.0 MMT from last year and 2% above the 5-year average of 757 MMT. Total global supplies are forecast to reach 1,064 MMT, 1% less than last year.

Significantly lower production is expected in the United States, Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan and a slight drop in Australian production, all exporting countries.

Change in world Wheat Production 2021

Among wheat exporting countries, the United States, Canada, Russia, Australia, Kazakhstan and Australia saw wheat production decline for 2021. All wheat exporting countries now hold 18% of world wheat stocks.

USDA estimates 2021/22 world wheat ending stocks will reach 277 MMT, down 4% from last year and 2% less than the 5-year average. A closer look at stocks held by exporting countries reveals that USDA now expects exporters to control just 18% of world wheat stocks, including Black Sea exporters. When exporters hold so few stocks, a bullish market and volatility result.

Following are USDA estimates for selected exporting countries, except where noted.

United States

  • U. S. wheat production will total 44.8 MMT, down 10% from last year and 15% below the 5-year average;
  • Persistent, severe dryness significantly cut hard red spring (HRS), soft white (SW) and Northern durum production;
  • Total U.S. wheat exports will reach 23.8 MMT in 2021/22, 12% less than last year and 10% less than the 5-year average.

Canada

  • Canadian 2021/22 wheat production will reach 21.0 MMT, 40% lower than last year and 35% less than the 5-year average of 35.4 MMT;
  • Spring wheat production is projected to decrease 40% on the year to 15.3 MMT due to extended dry weather Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) reported;
  • According to Statistics Canada, Canadian durum production is forecast to be 3.5 MMT in 2021/22, 46% less than last year on significantly drier growing conditions;
  • Total Canadian wheat exports will decrease 43% from last year to 15.0 MMT, 36% less than the 5-year average.

Russia

  • Total 2021/22 Russian wheat production decreased 15% on the year to 72.5 MMT;
  • According to SG, Russian planted area was down 1%, and average Russian wheat yield decreased 10% from last year to 39.55 bu/acre;
  • The imposition of a government export tax has slowed international demand for Russian wheat;
  • Total Russian wheat exports will fall 9% from last year to 35.0 MMT, 2% less than the 5-year average of 35.6 MMT.

Ukraine

  • USDA estimates total Ukrainian wheat production rose 30% from 2020/21 to 33.0 MMT;
  • SG predicts the total Ukrainian average wheat yield was up 18% from last year to 66.7 bu/acre;
  • Total Ukrainian wheat exports will rise 39% from last year’s record to 23.5 MMT in 2021/22.

Australia

  • Australian wheat production will fall 5% on the year to 31.5 MMT, although this is still a large crop with significant exportable supplies;
  • Increased average yield was lower despite a 7% increase in harvested area of 34.1 million acres;
  • Total Australian exports will be 23.5 MMT, 0.5 MMT down from 2020/21.

European Union

  • Total European Union (EU) wheat production is up 11% on the year to 139.4 MMT;
  • SG estimates that total EU non-durum wheat will be 129.5 MMT, up 9% from last year;
  • Heavy rain during harvest in both France and Germany challenged milling wheat quality and, as a result, 65% of EU non-durum wheat, or 80.8 MMT, meets millable grade;
  • Total EU wheat exports will increase 20% on the year to 35.5 MMT, 20% above the 5-year average.

Argentina

  • Total Argentinian wheat production will rise 14% from last year to 20.0 MMT following good growing conditions this season;
  • Total Argentinian wheat exports are expected to increase to 13.5 MMT in 2021/22, 23% more than last year and 8% greater than the 5-year average.

Exports by Major Wheat Exporting Countries

USDA expects 2021/22 world wheat trade to fall slightly from last year’s record to 200 MMT. If realized, that would be 6% greater than the 5-year average of 189 MMT. Total global wheat use is forecast at 787 MMT in 2021/22.

According to USDA’s trade forecast, the United States will have a 12% market share in the world wheat trade at 23.8 MMT, in line with last year’s market share.

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Good Performance in Limited Exportable 2021 Hard White Supplies

2021 hard white (HW) wheat samples show good quality performance in milling, dough properties and finished products, including pan breads, Asian noodles and steamed breads. The Pacific Northwest (PNW), California and Southern Plains composites all show good bread baking potential according to their respective protein contents. For Asian noodle applications, 60% extraction patent flour is recommended to improve noodle color while maintaining noodle texture. For steamed breads, it is recommended that high protein HW flour be blended with a portion of soft white (SW) flour to improve product quality.

map of 2021 hard white wheat production and sampling

Production of the 2021 hard white crop is 0.71 MMT, up 13% over last year.  Much of the increase is due to additional seeded acres and good production in Kansas, Colorado and Nebraska. Spring seeded HW was down due to the drought, which trimmed yields in southern Idaho.

2021 Crop Highlights

  • Grade average for six of the eight composites is U.S. No. 1. The low- and med-protein Southern Plains composites graded U.S. No. 2 due primarily to low test weights.
  • Test Weight ranged from 58.4 to 63.2 lb/bu (76.9 to 83.1 kg/hl).
  • Wheat Moisture ranged from 8.9 to 11.7%
  • Wheat Protein ranged from 11.0 to 13.7% (12% mb).
  • 1000 Kernel Weight for the Southern Plains low- and California high-protein composites are 20.1 and 28.6 g, respectively. All others are greater than or equal to 30.0 g.
  • Kernel Characteristics include kernel hardness averages 42.5 to 84.2 and kernel diameters 2.46 to 2.71 mm.
  • Falling Number averages 349 sec or higher for all composites.
  • Laboratory Mill straight-grade flour extractions range 69.8 to 73.1%, L* values (whiteness) 91.2 to 92.1, flour protein 10.0 to 13.0% (14% mb) and flour ash 0.45 to 0.53% (14% mb).
  • Wet Gluten contents range 25.1 to 29.8% depending on flour protein content.
  • Amylograph peak viscosities are between 553 and 1051 BU for all composites.
  • Farinograph absorptions range 52.4 to 62.9% and stability times 7.3 to 35.1 min, exhibiting medium to strong dough characteristics. HW farinograph absorption indicates more tolerance to overmixing.
  • Extensograph at a 135 min rest shows maximum resistance in the range of 294 to 1203 BU, extensibility 6.2 to 18.4 cm and area 58 to 183 cm2. The Southern Plains low- and med-protein composites were 294 and 528 BU, respectively, and all other composites were greater than or equal to 885 BU.
  • Alveograph ranges are P (38 to 120 mm); L (83 to 137 mm); and W (107 to 393 (10-4 J)).
  • Damaged Starch values are in the range of 3.9 to 5.6%.
  • Lactic acid SRC values range from 86 to 153%, indicating weak to strong gluten strength. The range shrinks to 116 – 153% if the Southern Plains low-protein composite is removed from the set.
  • Bake Evaluation for all composites shows acceptable to good baking performance relative to protein content, with bake absorptions in the range of 57.6 to 67.8%, loaf volumes of 742 to 950 cc, and crumb grain and texture scores of 6.0 to 8.0 points.
  • Chinese Raw Noodles (white salted) L* values at 0 hr of production and after 24 hr of storage at room temperature are acceptable for the Southern Plains low- and med-protein composites. The sensory color stability scores for PNW and Southern Plains low- and med-protein composites are similar to or better than the control noodle of 7.0. Cooked noodle texture is softer for the California med-protein composite.
  • Chinese Wet Noodles (yellow alkaline) sensory color stability scores are slightly to moderately worse than the control for parboiled noodles from all composites. The cooked noodle texture is similar for all composites. Overall, this year’s HW samples will produce noodles with acceptable color and texture if low ash patent flour is used.
  • Steamed Bread results show higher protein composites have larger specific volumes with total scores equivalent to the control flour. Blending 25% SW flour with high protein HW flour may improve overall steamed bread quality.

Buyers are encouraged to review their quality specifications to ensure that their purchases meet their expectations.

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) has posted more about the 2021 hard white crop here.

2021 Crop Quality Data on Other U.S. Wheat Classes

Hard Red Winter
Hard Red Spring
Soft Red Winter
Soft White
Northern Durum
Desert Durum® And California Hard Red Winter

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Wheat Industry News

Recent news and highlights from around the U.S. wheat industry.

Speaking of Wheat. “We have all lost a colleague and a friend this week. Craig Morris truly was an outstanding person who dedicated his life to improving wheat quality and being an innovator. He loved his work and had a passion for it that is rare and was truly a gift to the wheat and pulse community.” Alecia M. Kiszonas, PhD, Cultivar Development Manager, USDA-ARS Western Wheat & Pulse Quality Lab.

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Submitted Comments to the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) for the annual National Trade Estimates (NTE) report on October 27. USTR uses these comments to develop that office’s annual NTE report released in the Spring. The NTE report allows the U.S. industry to highlight trade challenges impacting their industry to the U.S. government. USW highlighted key barriers for wheat exports, such as sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS), export subsidies, and excessive domestic support. Read USW’s NTE submission for 2021 here.

Mississippi River Supply Chain Recovering. World Grain recently reported that downbound grain barges and unloads have slowly ramped back up since late September following substantial damage from Hurricane Ida. The article suggested this is a “timely recovery” as grain harvest in the Midwest was imminent. Soybeans and other grains typically move through the center-Gulf at New Orleans, whereas hard red winter wheat shipments for export move through the Texas Gulf, which saw minimal damage from the hurricane. Read more here.

Change in the Weather. The U.S. Drought Monitor reported on October 26 that a recent series of recent storms provided above-normal precipitation across much of the West, including the Pacific Northwest, California … across eastern portions of the northern and central Plains, the southern Great Lakes … and a band of precipitation from southeast Kansas to eastern Kentucky. While helpful, the rain has not knocked down drought conditions that persist across western U.S. wheat growing regions.

U.S. Wheat Associates Publishes Commercial Sales every Thursday, documenting wheat export sales-to-date by country and class for the current marketing year compared to the previous marketing year on the same date. The report includes a 10-year commercial sales history by class and country. USW sources data from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Weekly Export Sales Report. Read the latest report on the USW website.

Subscribe to USW Reports. USW publishes various reports and content that are available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online. Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and more on LinkedIn.

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U.S. Wheat Industry Mourns Loss of Dr. Craig Morris

Dr. Craig Morris

Dr. Craig Morris.

Earlier this week, on Monday, October 25, 2021, the U.S. wheat industry lost a highly respected colleague. Dr. Craig Morris was the director of the Western Wheat Quality Laboratory in Pullman, Wash., for more than 30 years, influencing the quality of wheat in the Pacific Northwest (PNW).

Morris had a significant impact on the region’s wheat breeding program, the Wheat Quality Council and outreach to the overseas milling industry. Everyone knew “Craig” because he was passionately engaged in whatever meeting or wheat event he was attending. Craig was most at home when he was talking about wheat and its magical quality and versatility.

Earlier in 2021, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) asked Morris to take overseas buyers on a virtual tour of the Washington State University Plant Growth Facility as part of the PNW Wheat Quality Summit. He was in his element, passionately explaining how the 49,000 square foot facility would revolutionize wheat breeding and assuring that PNW farmers would have the highest quality wheat in the world. Most notably, Morris was a steadfast promoter of soft white wheat quality through the Wheat Quality Council, helping to include overseas wheat buyers in the variety evaluation process.

Dr. Craig Morris in 2017 with a Korean milling team

In 2017, Dr. Craig Morris (pictured center) led a blind udon noodle sampling with a Korean milling team to highlight the U.S. soft white wheat variety (Ryan) and a soft durum variety that Craig bred himself.

The wheat family around the world will deeply miss him.

By Steve Wirsching, USW Vice President and West Coast Office Director

Header Photo Caption: Dr. Craig Morris (pictured third from the left), previously traveled with USW for its annual Crop Quality seminars to Taiwan, Korea and Japan. USW’s Steve Wirsching said, “Everyone already knew Craig from their trade team visits to the Pacific Northwest, and he did a great job explaining the SW and Club wheat crop. Craig is pictured here during a trip to Korea in the middle with a big smile.”

 

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Freight Markets Ride the Waves of Uncertainty

Look at a line graph that tracks freight markets over the last two years and you may mistake it for the very waves the vessels traverse on the open ocean. Up and down the vessel goes, and so have the rates.

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an assessment of the average cost to ship raw materials such as grains, coal and iron ore, hit a 13-year high on October 7 at 5,650, yet three weeks later, it climbed down 28% to 4,056 on October 27.

Disruptions and More

The effects of COVID-19 have turned the traditional flow of sea commerce upside down. And as economies reemerge from the pandemic-induced lull, logistic obstacles have abounded. “Global Supply-Chain Problems Escalate” and “Cargo Piles Up at Ports” are just two of the headlines outlining the shipping industry’s challenges. Disruptions to the supply chain, port congestion, and logistical challenges all add to the run-up in freight markets.

Grains, including wheat, are traditionally shipped using bulk carriers like Panamax, Handymax and Capesize vessels that contain large cargo holds to segregate grains. Cargo ships, the more familiar vessel for the trans-ocean shipping of retail items, only carry small volumes of grain. However, as extraordinary times created the need for more extraordinary efforts, the massive U.S. retailer Walmart recently chartered a dry bulk cargo ship to carry merchandise to circumvent global supply chain disruptions. Other retailers may do the same as the holiday season approaches.

Idled Vessels

That would not be a bargain because 16% of the world’s dry bulk fleet is waiting to unload at various ports around the world, with 6% of those vessels waiting at Chinese ports. The inefficiencies caused by loaded vessels idling outside ports translate directly to tighter supply despite higher demand and, thus, higher prices. Dry bulk shipping rates were below $20,000 per day last January but rates, led by Capesize vessels, hit $85,000 per day in September. Grain buyers still must ship wheat and pay the higher prices, pushing up all rates across dry bulk carriers.

Global import for grain has also increased year-over-year. For example, China’s demand for grains has equated to around 25% of worldwide demand. Looking back, in the mid-2000s, the number of dry bulk carriers outweighed the demand for such vessels. However, an economic boom in China starting around 2006 saturated the dry bulk market leading to greater demand and a soaring BDI. Eventually, shipping companies added to their fleets, and the added capacity helped freight markets to stabilize. Then the global financial crisis reduced the demand for such vessels and slowed shipbuilding. Now a new spike, starting in 2020, has driven demand up again and daily rates for dry bulk shipping. The nearby market remains high while the forward market is much lower, creating a significant inverse. Exporters who need to ship now must pay the higher prices.

Freight Markets Export Elevator

Doubled

Importers in South Korea, the fifth-largest U.S. wheat customer, based on a 5-year average, has seen freight rates double from US$40 per metric ton (MT) in 2020 to around US$80 per MT dollars today, said C.Y. Kang, Country Director for U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) based in Seoul. Kang also noted that the BDI Index in 2020 averaged 1,064 while this year it has averaged 2,941, a 176% increase. Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, has suspended the 15% price advantage it offered the state shipping line as GASC, the Egyptian state commodities buyer, tries to find ways to lower the overall cost of wheat imports.

High oil prices are also keeping freight rates elevated. On Tuesday, oil futures hit their highest levels since 2014 but started to slump Thursday, hitting their lowest level in two weeks at $80.58 as U.S. crude inventories rose more than expected. One market analyst said that energy prices are unlikely to weaken for the remainder of the year as supply remains restrained, but demand returns to the 5-year average. Oil sold for around $15 per barrel in April 2020 versus today, a 431% increase.

Seeing the Top?

Jay O’Neil, a commodities consultant, has outlined all today’s obstacles in the export freight supply chain in a video presentation that will be available to U.S. wheat customers in early November. On top of long lines at ports, there is a shortage of vessels, containers, skilled labor at ports, warehouse workers, a 30% shortage of truck drivers, railroad cars and even chassis to attach containers to train cars. In his presentation, O’Neil says that despite the logistical mess, which could extend into mid-2022, the dry bulk market is likely to have hit its top.

As these circumstances change globally, logistical headaches may ease as more workers return and more consistent patterns resume. For now, though, the tight supply of vessels and the consistent appetite for grains is helping keep the global dry bulk business at historic levels.

Stay up to date on U.S. wheat market information at https://www.uswheat.org/market-information/.

By Michael Anderson, USW Market Analyst

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Sharing a Way of Life: U.S. Wheat Farmers Invest Hard Work and Purpose in their Crops

Over the past few months, Wheat Letter has shared the story of the U.S. wheat supply chain. We started with the public and private wheat breeders who help protect wheat crops from extreme conditions while improving performance qualities. We discussed how U.S. wheat farmers carefully select the best wheat varieties to plant on their land, then care for the crop in more sustainable ways. And we demonstrated how grain handlers and exporters maintain wheat quality for their customers.

Behind this impressive industry, there are people who bring passion and purpose – intangible investments that go into every step of the field to export journey. As U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) says in its film, “Wholesome: The Journey of U.S. Wheat,” while the process makes U.S. wheat the world’s most reliable supply, the people make the wheat whole.

“I cannot imagine not doing this work,” said USW Chairman and Grass Valley, Ore., farmer Darren Padget. “We were born and bred to do it.”

Darren’s son and farming partner Logan agreed.

“I feel like what we do out here is very good. We raise some of the best quality wheat in the world and I am proud to be a part of it,” he said.

Jeremy Goyings, a fifth-generation farmer from Paulding, Ohio, sees intangible value in his work that U.S. wheat buyers around the world will appreciate.

“The reward is knowing that the things we have changed, the things that we do differently day-in and day-out means someone gets better quality food in the end,” said Goyings.

Wheat Letter invites you to learn more about how the ordinary people who grow U.S. wheat see great responsibility and reward in their work.

In October, November and December, Wheat Letter will continue focus on the unique end-product qualities and value of the six wheat classes these U.S. wheat farmers produce.

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2021 Hard Red Spring Crop Boasts Excellent Qualities and Soundness

The U.S. 2021 Hard Red Spring (HRS) crop endured significant drought conditions, leading to a sharp yield reduction and increased abandonment. Despite the moisture stressed growing season, the quality parameters of the crop are very good, with high protein content, high vitreous levels, low kernel moisture and sound kernels. Buyers will be pleased with this year’s improved dough strength and higher absorption values. With reduced supply and isolated areas with higher levels of shrunken and broken and lighter 1000 kernel weights, buyers should always remain diligent in their contract specifications.

2021 map of 2021 hard red spring wheat production and sampling

Weather and Harvest

Limited moisture allowed for fast planting, but cool temperatures or overly dry topsoil delayed emergence in parts of the growing region. Above-average temperatures, minimal precipitation and high winds stressed a significant share of the crop. A dry, rapid harvest period limited disease pressures and benefitted kernel quality parameters. USDA estimates production at 8.1 million metric tons, 44% below last year.

2021 Crop Highlights

  • Grade – the overall average is U.S. No. 1 Dark Northern Spring (DNS).
  • Test Weight averages 61.3 lb/bu (80.6 kg/hl), slightly lower than the 2020 and 5-year averages.
  • Vitreous Kernel Levels (DHV) improved, averaging 80% compared to 71% in 2020.
  • Protein averages 15.4% (12% mb), above 2020 and 5-year averages.
  • DON levels were near zero due to minimal disease pressures.
  • 1000 Kernel Weight average is 29 g, below 2020 and 5-year averages.
  • Falling Number average is 377 sec, benefited by a rapid, dry harvest.
  • Wet Gluten averages 37.4%, notably higher than 2020 and 5-year averages, supported by high kernel protein content.
  • Amylograph values average 732 BU for 65 g of flour, up notably from recent levels.
  • Farinograph testing indicates a much stronger crop than in recent years, with an average stability of 18.8 min.
  • Alveograph and Extensograph analyses show greater resistance and less extensibility.
  • Loaf Volume average is 952 cc, lower than 2020 and 5-year averages.
  • Bake Absorption average is 66.4%, down from 2020 but similar to the 5-year average.
  • Bread Scores are higher than 2020 and 5-year averages.

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) has posted more about the 2021 hard red spring crop here and the full regional report here.

2021 Crop Quality Data on Other U.S. Wheat Classes

Hard Red Winter
Soft Red Winter
Soft White
Northern Durum
Desert Durum® And California Hard Red Winter
Hard White

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2021 Northern Durum Wheat Crop is High Quality with Excellent Performance

Buyers will find the 2021 Northern durum crop to be of high quality, especially for grading and kernel characteristics. Although lower than previous years, test weights are stronger than expected, and damage is low. There is no shortage of protein in this year’s crop, and falling number values indicate a sound crop. Lower 1000 kernel weights and a reduction in the percentage of large-sized kernels will likely reduce milling yields. Dough properties look to be strong as well as cooked pasta characteristics. The main issue buyers will face is lower supply levels. Customers should also continue to be diligent in contract specifications, given that a small portion of the crop did see some rainfall at harvest.

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) has posted the full 2021 Northern Durum Wheat Quality Report here.

2021 U.S. durum sampling data

Weather and Harvest

In the U.S. Northern Plains, Durum production is down by more than 50% from 2020 due to a small decline in acreage and sharply lower yields caused by severe drought. Throughout the growing season, overly dry soil conditions were a concern, and the dry conditions pushed crop development ahead of normal but kept disease pressures minimal. Most of the harvest was completed under dry conditions, allowing for excellent grading and kernel characteristics. Scattered rain delays toward the end of harvest affected some quality factors but did not significantly impact overall quality.

2021 Crop Highlights

  • Grade – the overall average is U.S. No. 1 Hard Amber Durum (HAD).
  • Test Weight averages 60.5 lb/bu (78.8 kg/hl), below last year and five-year averages, due to drought pressure.
  • Damage was quite low at 0.1% due to minimal disease pressure.
  • Vitreous Kernel (Hvac) content is 86%, similar to last year and 5-year averages due to drought conditions.
  • Protein averages 15.5% (12% mb), higher than 2020; nearly 90% of the crop has a minimum protein of 14%.
  • 1000 Kernel Weight average is 41.2 g, a drop from last year’s high value of 46.7 and slightly below the 5-year average of 42.1, due to dry conditions during kernel fill.
  • Kernel Moisture was lower than average due to a mostly dry harvest period.
  • Falling Number values are high, with the average for the region being 428 sec.
  • Don is nearly non-existent in this year’s crop due to very minimal disease pressure.
  • Speck Counts are lower than last year and 5-year averages.
  • Semolina Protein is 14.2%, much higher than last year due to higher kernel protein.
  • Semolina Color values are similar to last year, with brightness and yellowness slightly lower.
  • Mixing Properties reveal a stronger crop than last year and the 5-year average.
  • Cooked Spaghetti Evaluations show color similar to the 5-year average and higher cooked weight and firmness. Cooking loss is higher than last year.

Read more about the 2021 Northern Durum wheat crop here.

2021 Crop Quality Data on Other U.S. Wheat Classes

Soft White
Hard Red Winter
Hard Red Spring
Soft Red Winter
Desert Durum® And California Hard Red Winter
Hard White

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