You are here: / / Wheat Letter Blog
thumbnail
, ,

Moving Wheat Efficiently Through the Columbia Snake River System

In the Pacific Northwest (PNW), wheat can move by barge to export elevators from as far away as Idaho. That is because of the series of eight locks and dams that make safe, efficient navigation possible on one of the leading trade gateways in the United States — the Columbia Snake River System.

The Pacific Northwest Waterways Association (PNWA) notes that over 8.6 million tons of cargo are moved by barge on the inland portion of the system, feeding the deep draft lower Columbia River. The Columbia Snake River System is the top wheat export gateway in the nation.

Serving Asia, Latin America

Idaho exports more than half of its wheat crop each year. The Port of Lewiston on the Snake River, the most inland U.S. port, is uniquely positioned to source that wheat for the six major PNW export elevators serving Asian and Latin American wheat markets. All aspects of the river system are essential for transporting wheat from farm to market. However, barging through the lower Snake River is the most efficient, affordable, and environmentally friendly way to get that wheat to export locations. For context, one 4-barge tow on this river system moves as much cargo as 144 rail cars or 538 semi-trucks.

An estimated 10% of all U.S. wheat exported every year moves through the four locks and dams on the lower Snake River. The Idaho Wheat Commission and its partners recently shared the short video below that tells the story of how the Columbia Snake River System works for the world’s wheat importers, for the U.S. farmers who grow that wheat, and for the people of the Pacific Northwest.

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) will share more information about the crucial role of the Columbia Snake River System in future Wheat Letter posts.

/by
thumbnail
, , ,

China Exceeded Annual Wheat TRQ Volume in 2021

China’s latest customs numbers are in, and the news is significant. After clearing 933,500 metric tons of wheat through customs in December, China in calendar year 2021 exceeded its 9.636 million metric ton (MMT) annual wheat TRQ (tariff rate quota) established in its World Trade Organization (WTO) membership. The official tally was 9.718 MMT of imported wheat.

According to customs, Australian wheat and U.S. wheat at more than 2.7 MMT each were China’s largest suppliers in 2021. The difference between them is a mere 9,000 metric tons. That is about the volume that fits into one hold on a bulk freight vessel.

Customs data showed China exceeded its annual wheat TRQ in part by importing 2.544 MMT of Canadian wheat and 1.412 MMT of French wheat in 2021. The volume China imported from those four wheat suppliers indicates to U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) that buying from deep and transparent markets with good ocean shipping infrastructure is still attractive to China’s buyers. The remaining 3% of its total 2021 imports arrived from Kazakhstan and Russia.

Image of U.S. HRW wheat and list of functional benefits included to show how China exceeded its annual wheat TRQ with help from USW.

Introducing HRW Wheat. China imported a significant amount of U.S. hard red winter (HRW) wheat in 2021. So in September, USW used presentations (above) and technical demonstrations to help Chinese millers and grain buyers understand the functional benefits of HRW.

U.S. Wheat Demand

In December, a private buyer purchased a small container-load of U.S. wheat. That helped lift China’s total U.S. imports in the second half of calendar year 2021 t0 848,000 metric tons. The obvious, recent slow-down in U.S.-origin wheat arrivals is disappointing. But it is not surprising. In fact, U.S. export wheat prices are now above domestic Chinese prices on a Cost and Freight basis.

China’s private milling and wheat food manufacturers serve an increasingly sophisticated consumer market. Their demand for four classes of high-quality U.S. wheat remains strong. That is why our experienced, professional USW China team members continue to educate industry customers about U.S. wheat value and functionality. We are pleased that COFCO, China’s state trading company, welcomes our activities that, we believe, helped China exceed its annual wheat TRQ.

Practical Guidance

A good example from 2021 was a three-day “Contracting for Wheat Value” seminar in July for 32 participants representing 11 non-state and state Chinese trading companies and mills. The goal of the seminar was to help the participants become better-prepared buyers. USW provided practical guidance on writing contract specifications that take advantage of U.S. wheat crop and market situations and much more. According to input from the meeting participants, our goal was achieved.

Chinese wheat buyers participated in a USW Contracting for Wheat Value seminar in 2021, part of effort to help China exceed its annual wheat TRQ in 2021.

Contracting for Wheat Value. USW combined an in-person meeting in Guangzhou, China (above), with video and virtual presentations in July 2021 to help Chinese wheat buyers better understand the U.S. wheat export system.

Policy Plays Its Role

We also respectfully look for help from policymakers on both sides. Since the Phase One agreement, U.S. wheat sales to China are far above USW’s pre-trade war average. As USW Vice President of Policy Dalton Henry noted one year ago, policymakers “would do well … to pick up where Phase One left off and continue to build on the tremendous export potential for China.”

It is true that some uncertainty will remain in U.S.-China trade relations. It is also true that opportunities will emerge to do business in China. USW has support from our farmers and USDA Foreign Agricultural Service export market development programs. And USW will stay engaged in keeping our Chinese customers informed about the quality, variety and value of U.S. wheat. So hopefully, next January, we will see that China has once more exceeded its annual wheat TRQ.

Finally, we wish all our customers and friends peace and good health in the Year of the Tiger!

By Jeff Coey, USW Regional Vice President, China, Hong Kong and Taiwan

/by
thumbnail

Wheat Industry News

Recent news and highlights from around the U.S. wheat industry.

Speaking of Wheat.

“Our study also showed that fermentation was very effective in reducing FODMAPs and ATI levels in wheat in the form of sourdough. These results tell us that sourdough production can be effectively used to reduce the levels of FODMAPs and ATIs in wheat.” — Dr. George Annor, Assistant Professor of Cereal Chemistry and Technology at the University of Minnesota, in an article about wheat digestibility research in Prairie Grains Magazine and reprinted in Wheat Letter.

Long-Serving World Ag Outlook Board Chairman Passes

Gerald Bange, who worked for 43 years at the USDA, including 20 years as chair of the World Ag Outlook Board, died Thursday, Jan. 13, 2022. He oversaw USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report in that role. In addition, Bange also served as program chairperson for USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum. During his tenure as chair, which ended upon his retirement in 2014, Bange was a two-time recipient of the Presidential Rank Award for Meritorious Executive. Read more about Bange’s career.

2021/22 Global Wheat Flour Trade Forecast

Global wheat flour trade is forecast to reach its highest peak in three years and reverse a five-year downward trend. The International Grains Council (IGC) predicts the world will trade 14.8 million metric tons (wheat equivalent) of flour this year, 9% higher than last year’s total but well below the 2016/17 record of 17.6 MMT. “The projected first rebound in five years is largely linked to expectations for increased imports by Iraq…,” the IGC said. “However … the forecast may be revised lower in the coming updates, should the pace fail to accelerate going forward.”

2022 National Wheat Yield Contest Adds Quality Component

The National Wheat Foundation (NWF) announced that grower enrollment for the 2022 National Wheat Yield Contest is open. NWF divides the contest into two primary competition categories: winter wheat and spring wheat, and two subcategories: dryland and irrigated. The 2022 contest adds a new quality component in which contest partners will evaluate the 24 yield winners’ wheat for baking and milling qualities. If it meets all the criteria for “industry-desired” quality, the farmer will receive an additional $500 cash award in addition to the trip to Commodity Classic. Learn more about the contest, due dates, and how to enter here.

Wheat Marketing Center Searches for Executive Director

The Wheat Marketing Center (WMC) is looking for an Executive Director. WMC is a dynamic and multifaceted non-profit research and technical training entity. It promotes multiple classes of U.S. wheat by demonstrating their quality and functionality in end products. The application deadline is Friday, Jan. 21, 2022. Learn about the position and how to apply here.

2022 Northern Crops Institute Courses

The Northern Crops Institute (NCI) in Fargo, N.D. has available courses in 2022 for online and in-person instruction. Available courses include a Pasta Production and Technology course in April. Learn more about NCI courses and how to register here.

2022 IGP Institute Flour Milling Course Schedule

The IGP Institute in Manhattan, Kan., has several upcoming flour milling and grain processing courses available in 2022. Courses in this curriculum area cover aspects of managing the flour milling process, from grain selection to finished products. Learn more about IGP Institute courses and how to register here.

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content that are available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and more on LinkedIn.

/by
thumbnail
, , , , , ,

USDA Reports Reflect Why U.S. Farmers Seeded More Winter Wheat

Last week, USDA released three reports giving some indication of what may be ahead for the 2022 global wheat market. Those USDA reports were the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the quarterly Grain Stocks report, and the annual Winter Wheat Seedings report.

Considering all three reports, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) notes that the latest WASDE report showed few unexpected changes to the worldwide balance sheet of wheat. Some upward revisions were made in Argentina and the EU. Still, the reports forecast global consumption far higher than production. The Grain Stocks report reflected the significant drop in total 2021/22 U.S. wheat production. Predictably, U.S. farmers seeded more winter wheat for a second year in a row.

In fact, after winter wheat plantings fell to their lowest level in more than a century in 2020/21, U.S. winter wheat seeded area for marketing year 2022/23 has increased for the second year in a row, up 2% from 2021 and 13% compared to 2020 reported the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) in their annual Winter Wheat Seedings report released Jan. 12, 2022. Winter wheat seeded acres are the most they have been since 2016/17.

Bar graph showing annual U.S. winter wheat seeded area indicates an increase over the past two years to illustrate USDA Reports story.

According to recent USDA reports, U.S. farmers are responding to increased global demand and lower U.S. stocks by seeding more winter wheat in 2022.

The Winter Wheat Seedings report showed farmers planted 23.8 million acres (9.6 million hectares) of hard red winter (HRW). This report is up 1% from 2021, led by Kansas, up 3%, and Texas, up 2%. Notable drops in seeded area came in Colorado, down 2%, and New Mexico down 11%.

The quarterly USDA Grain Stocks report confirmed all U.S. wheat in storage, both on and off farm, was down 18% compared to a year ago, while disappearance was down 16% compared to the year before. Analysts expect ending stocks for the 2021/22 marketing year to be the smallest since 2013/14 at 628 million bushels (17.09/MMT).

Price Signals

Increased cash price this year has no doubt played a role in farmer decisions to seed more HRW acres. Kansas Wheat Commission CEO Justin Gilpin noted higher HRW prices as one reason for a second consecutive year of higher wheat plantings. Year-over-year prices for HRW at 12% protein (12% moisture basis) are up 24%.

Soft red winter (SRW) farmers have also taken advantage of strong pricing and increased export demand to plant more SRW acres. Estimates of SRW for the 2022/23 marketing year are 7.07 million acres (2.86 million hectares), 6% higher than last year. Increased acres are largest in Missouri, up 38%, North Carolina is up 31% and Ohio up 21%. USDA reported decreases in Maryland, down 16%, and Michigan, down 23%. The 2021/22 SRW export pace is 50% ahead of last year’s pace year-to-date.

Estimated white winter wheat (soft white and hard white) are 3.56 million acres (1.44 million hectares). This estimate is up 2% from 2021.

Desert Durum® seeded area in California and Arizona of 90,000 acres (36,421 hectares) is up 15% compared to last year and 20% compared to 2020.

Drought Lingers in the Plains

In the monthly “Wheat Outlook” report published by the Economic Research Service (ERS) of the USDA, analysts reported that major HRW producing states, mostly concentrated in the Plains states, saw conditions for winter wheat degrade since November but noted that spring conditions are more influential on production numbers. Kansas’s Gilpin noted “attention has turned to expanding drought ratings across HRW regions and potentially yield and production impacts. Dry conditions and higher input costs both are concerns.”

NOAA map shows where U.S. wheat production areas overlap with drought conditions to supplement USDA reports article.

By Michael Anderson, USW Market Analyst

/by
thumbnail
, , ,

Congress Shines Spotlight on India’s Trade-Distorting Domestic Wheat and Rice Support

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) is very pleased that several members of Congress have asked Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack and U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai to pursue a World Trade Organization (WTO) case against India’s trade-distorting domestic wheat and rice support.

In separate letters to those officials, members of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives noted that while India is limited to providing 10% support for crop inputs under its WTO agreement, the government subsidizes half the total cost of wheat and rice production and recently announced a massive new subsidy for fertilizer. The letter also reminds Ambassador Tai and Secretary Vilsack that the United States counter-notified India’s claim that it meets WTO limits on price support. However, India’s government continued raising the guaranteed prices it pays to purchase wheat and rice.

India’s subsidies lead directly to domestic supplies that far exceed India’s acknowledged need for stockkeeping – stocks the government cannot store effectively. As a result, the government unloads stocks into the export market, often at prices below what it paid to purchase the wheat. USDA estimates Indian wheat exports for the marketing year ending June 30, 2022, will be 5 million metric tons (MMT). This leaves almost 28 MMT of wheat stocks remaining.

Chart shows Indian wheat production and exports to illustrate trade distorting wheat and rice subsidies

India’s wheat subsidies encourage over-production, pushing India into the global export market. As a result, stocks exceeding the government’s ability to store wheat periodically distorts trade. Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Production, Supply and Distribution Databases.

The distortion of international wheat and rice trade from these policies is severe, costing U.S. wheat farmers more than $500 million per year in lost income according to a 2020 Texas A&M University study commissioned by USW and USA Rice.

Wrong Subsidies, Wrong Time

Subsidies encouraging over-use of agricultural production inputs are not appropriate when the world is concerned about agriculture’s environmental footprint. We ask the question why is India subsidizing fossil fuel and chemical fertilizer use? Why is India subsidizing over-production that encourages the cultivation of more marginal land?

U.S. wheat and rice farmers rely on open markets and fair trade to sustain their ability to feed the world. USW joins members of Congress and the National Association of Wheat Growers in calling on India to adhere to its international commitments and willingness to work with USDA and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative to maintain the competitiveness of U.S. wheat in the world.

Graph shows various wheat subsidies reported to WTO.

The U.S. government submits this data to the WTO by the U.S. government as part of a counter-notification. This data shows a wide discrepancy between actual domestic wheat support and the Indian government’s submission.

/by
thumbnail
, ,

Improving Wheat Digestibility through Sourdough Fermentation and Crop Variety

This article on wheat digestibility is reprinted with permission from Prairie Grains and written by the Agricultural Utilization Research Institute (AURI). Additional thanks to the Minnesota Wheat Research and Promotion Council, a member of U.S. Wheat Associates (USW).

In past issues of Prairie Grains Magazine, [AURI has] highlighted ongoing research investigating ways to reduce potentially reactive components of wheat, like FODMAPs and ATIs. FODMAPs are sugars, known as fermentable oligosaccharides, disaccharides, monosaccharides and polyols. ATIs are proteins called amylase-trypsin inhibitors. Research indicates that “anti-nutrients,” such as ATIs, and fructans (a component of FODMAPs) in wheat have been identified as triggers of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS).

Not By Gluten Alone

There is a growing understanding that wheat digestibility issues may not be solely caused by gluten sensitivity but are also related to the presence of FODMAPs and ATIs. According to Dr. George Annor, assistant professor of cereal chemistry and technology at the University of Minnesota, FODMAPs are normally present in small quantities and tolerated by most.

However, foods with more than 0.3 grams per serving (the equivalent of two slices or more of bread) … can cause issues. FODMAPs are best tolerated if less than 0.3 grams per serving.

For individuals with this sensitivity, changes to wheat characteristics or processing techniques can result in more digestible products, increasing quality of life for consumers and allowing them to enjoy the health benefits of wheat products.

There is a growing understanding that wheat digestibility issues may not be solely caused by gluten sensitivity but are also related to the presence of FODMAPs and ATIs.

Conducted through a partnership between the Minnesota Wheat Research and Promotion Council (MWRPC), the Agricultural Utilization Research Institute (AURI), the University of Minnesota’s College of Food, Agricultural and Natural Resource Sciences (CFANS) and its Regional Sustainable Development Partnership, as well as Back When Foods, Inc., this research has the potential to create new products and processes that will positively impact the entire wheat industry value chain.

The hypothesis set for this research is that ATIs and FODMAPS can be reduced through breeding programs and processing techniques (i.e. sourdough fermentation) of modern, heritage and ancient wheat. The reason this topic is important to wheat growers and the entire industry is researchers’ belief these reactive components are triggers of non-celiac gluten sensitivity and irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), which cause many people to avoid wheat-based products. Instead, they look for less-reactive products, thus reducing the overall consumption of wheat-based products impacting the industry overall. Until now.

The MWRPC and its partners undertook this endeavor in order to create new opportunities for wheat-based products, consumable by those with wheat digestion concerns. Additionally, the study has the potential to provide new market opportunities that could have a positive financial impact for growers, the wheat industry and Minnesota.

Sliced pan bread and artisan bread loaves for article on wheat digestibility

Research suggests that wheat breeding has not increased FODMAP nor ATI levels in modern wheat varieties.

“We have identified significant variation in FODMAP and ATI levels in a diverse panel of wheat varieties, including among modern wheat germplasm,” said Dr. James Anderson, professor of wheat breeding and genetics at the U of M. “This variation may allow us to selectively breed for lower levels of these anti-nutrients. The ancient Einkorn and Emmer wheats were consistently low in FODMAPs, and Einkorn was also low in ATIs.”

Annor said research shows that sourdough production can help reduce the amount of FODMAPS and ATIs in wheat.

“Screening the ancient, heritage and modern wheat varieties for their FODMAPs and ATI gave us important insights into how these parameters vary in different wheat varieties,” Annor said. “It was apparent that we have not inherently bred them for increased levels of FODMAPs and ATI over the years. Our study also showed that fermentation was very effective in reducing FODMAPs and ATI levels in wheat in the form of sourdough. These results tell us that sourdough production can be effectively used to reduce the levels of FODMAPs and ATIs in wheat.”

New Approaches

Coupled with breeding efforts to reduce the levels of anti-nutrients in wheat lines, the degradation of FODMAPs and ATIs through sourdough fermentation provides immediate opportunities for wheat growers to regain market share by focusing their efforts on channeling their crops directly to the ever-growing artisan bakery sector. An additional channel for growers to use the research findings is in support of ongoing breeding programs and low FODMAP certification, in which large-scale processors have shown great interest.

“Both FODMAP and ATI levels appear to be under complex genetic control,” Anderson said, “thus making the selective breeding of these traits more difficult. But I’m optimistic that we can make breeding progress.” Anderson added that new approaches involving DNA sequencing and genomic prediction will be used to enhance our breeding efforts to reduce FODMAP and ATI levels.

As the project researchers and partners continue to seek ways to have a meaningful impact on the wheat industry overall, plans are underway to continue to build upon these recent findings in a second phase that focuses on further development of wheat varieties that not only have improved digestibility but also have high amylose and resistant starch content for a lower glycemic index and improved gut health (microbiome).

Financial support for this project is provided by an Agricultural Growth, Research, & Innovation Crop Research Grant from the Minnesota Department of Agriculture. The AGRI program awards grants, scholarships and cost shares to advance Minnesota’s agricultural and renewable energy industries.

For more information about the AGRI program, visit www.mda.state.mn.us/grants/agri. To learn more about AGRI Crop Research Grants, visit www.mda.state.mn.us/cropresearch. For more information, and to follow this research, visit www.auri.org/agri.

/by
thumbnail
,

Things to Know When Buying U.S. Wheat

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) works on behalf of U.S. wheat producers to help millers, bakers, wheat food processors and government officials understand the process of buying U.S. wheat at the best value possible.

The U.S. grain marketing system is reliable and transparent but can be complicated. So, USW keeps buyers and wheat food processors informed about the wide variety of U.S. wheat classes, how wheat moves to export markets as well as current crop quality and prices.

Interactive map to help when buying U.S. wheat

USW has developed an interactive map of regional U.S. wheat production by class and how it is transported to export terminals.

As part of a recent seminar for overseas buyers, USW Vice President and West Coast Office Director Steve Wirsching recorded a presentation titled “U.S. Wheat Market Overview.” From how regional climate affects wheat quality and USW’s process for sharing estimated export prices to how export basis regulates the flow of grain to market and the role of the Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS), Wirsching provides an important primer for buying U.S. wheat.

Many Resources for Buyers

Click on the image below to see the entire presentation that was used in the buyer’s seminar in July 2021. Additional information is always available online. And most importantly, USW representatives in 13 offices around the world, are always ready to help our customers, through trade service and technical support, making buying U.S. wheat a rewarding experience.

/by
thumbnail

Wheat Industry News

Recent news and highlights from around the U.S. wheat industry.

Speaking of Wheat. “It has amazed me in my entire 30-plus years in the grain business how farmers never give up hope. It is a tribute to every farmer … that no matter how bad things get, they keep moving forward and look ahead to the following season, hoping for better results. That is why I have never left this business, because of the strength and determination farmers have, and I am honored to know so many of them.” — DTN Basis Analyst Mary Kennedy, from a column in Progressive Farmer, December 27, 2021.

2022 EU Production Estimate. World Grain reported this week that the European trade association Cocereal expects wheat production in the European Union (EU) to decline in 2022 by more than 3 million metric tons (MMT) compared to 2021. In its first forecast for the 2022 EU+UK grain crop, Coceral projected wheat output at 139.8 MMT, down slightly from the previous year mainly due to a return to average yields in the Balkan region.

“Cracking Open China’s Wheat Import Quota.” China imports wheat but at a volume less than half of what is allowed under a quota system first established when China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. A recent study by USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) looks at China’s past procedures for allocating quotas to its prospective importers and revealed that … “demand for imported wheat often exceeded what was typically awarded. ERS’ analysis of China’s wheat import data suggests that import volume in 2021 is poised to reach that quota for the first time in two decades.”

Wheat Marketing Center Searches for Executive Director. The Wheat Marketing Center (WMC) is looking for an Executive Director. WMC is a dynamic and multifaceted non-profit research and technical training entity that promotes multiple classes of U.S. wheat by demonstrating their quality and functionality in end products. Learn about the position and how to apply here.

2022 Northern Crops Institute Courses. The Northern Crops Institute (NCI) in Fargo, N.D. has available courses in 2022 for online and in-person instruction, including the Pasta Production and Technology course in April. Learn more about NCI courses and how to register here.

2022 IGP Institute Flour Milling Course Schedule. The IGP Institute in Manhattan, Kan., has several upcoming flour milling and grain processing courses available in 2022. Courses in this curriculum area cover aspects of managing the flour milling process, from grain selection to finished products. Learn more about IGP Institute courses and how to register here.

Subscribe to USW Reports. USW publishes various reports and content that are available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts, the weekly Price Report and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online. Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and more on LinkedIn.

/by
thumbnail
, , ,

U.S. Wheat Associates Continues to Find Success in Virtual Programs

By Catherine Miller, USW Programs Coordinator

With the COVID-19 pandemic still lingering in 2021, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) continued to provide reliable, high-quality service to customers worldwide via virtual programming. The pandemic’s start quickly brought challenges that no industry in modern history had experienced on such an immediate, global scale. However, USW quickly pivoted and adapted its programs. That experience and valued feedback we received better prepared USW to improve and expand virtual programs in 2021.

USW conducted more than 315 virtual programs in 2021 and reached over 13,000 participants. This increased from 296 virtual programs and 11,000 participants in 2020, even as some regions slowly began implementing in-person activities again this year. The chart below showcases a breakdown of the types of USW programs and compares virtual participant reach in 2020 and 2021 to pre-pandemic, in-person participant numbers in 2019.

Estimated number of participants in USW programs 2019-2021

“Marketing year (MY) 2021/22 combined ending stocks of major wheat exporters are projected to reach their lowest level in more than ten years. This tighter supply outlook among exporters pushed wheat prices to historically high levels, and adverse global weather

Mike Spier

Mike Spier, USW Vice President of Overseas Operations

conditions intensified market volatility,” said USW Vice President of Overseas Operations Mike Spier. “In 2021, USW overseas staff rose to the challenge and increased the number of customers reached through crop and market updates by more than 1,000 participants compared to similar programs in 2020. This increased frequency in virtual programs and timely market information kept buyers around the world informed of the latest wheat price, production and quality trends, helping them navigate tighter supplies, price volatility and challenges brought on by the pandemic.”

In 2021, USW hosted a new monthly webinar series, “Creating Value for U.S. Wheat,” hosted by Mark Fowler, USW Vice President of Global and Technical Services. With assistance from Catherine Miller, USW Programs Coordinator, the seven-part series featured technical topics and current market trends such as solvent retention capacity (SRC), flour blending, flour particle size impact, stream selection and more. Webinar speakers included USW’s in-house technical staff, including Fowler, Roy Chung, Ivan Goh, Tarik Gahi, Peter Lloyd and Andrés Saturno. The monthly webinars ran from April to October and reached more than 1,840 participants.

Another highlight from USW’s 2021 virtual programming was the first-ever “School of Wheat Quality Course.” USW collaborated with Dr. Senay Simsek, Purdue University, and Brian Sorenson, Northern Crops Institute (NCI), who designed and executed two intensive 6-week virtual sessions for customers in South and Southeast Asia. Participants took a deep dive into the various steps of wheat quality testing from field to table through live-streamed lectures and demonstrations. Benchmark exams were conducted throughout the 6-week course and were a requirement for graduation—a helpful tool to ensure participants stayed engaged.

“These courses provided foundational instruction on testing wheat and flour quality. Training mill staff how to accurately measure quality parameters and compare attributes offered by different types of wheat helps illustrate the superior quality of U.S. wheat classes,” said USW Regional Vice President for South Asia Joe Sowers. “Courses like this are a win-win for USW and our stakeholders. They facilitate the success of collaborating millers while proving the value proposition of using U.S. wheat.”

For the U.S. wheat industry and its overseas customers, who share historically long connections, meeting together in person here and abroad has always been paramount to its successful relationships. While the value of face-to-face activities is irreplaceable, the unique opportunity to increase USW’s reach to customers has become a silver lining to the challenges brought on by the pandemic. Going forward, USW sees the value in leveraging a mix of in-person and virtual programming to best serve its customers.

/by
thumbnail
,

Fundamental Support for Wheat Prices Shared with USW Farmer Directors

By Michael Anderson, USW Market Analyst

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) represents the interests of wheat farmers in export markets. Each time the USW Board of Directors meet, we report on the latest market information that affects the U.S. wheat marketing environment. At their meeting the week of Jan. 10, 2022, our directors will see continued fundamental support for wheat prices from greater demand worldwide and lower production in major exporting countries.

The next USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Report will be released on Jan. 12. Ahead of that report, USDA pegs 2021/22 world wheat production at a record 777.89 million metric tons (MMT), 3% above the 5-year average of 757.4 MMT. Total global supplies are forecast to reach 1,068 MMT, slightly lower than last year. USDA noted lower wheat production in Canada, Russia, and the United States, which all experienced drought in the 2021 growing season.

USDA expects wheat production to be higher in Ukraine, the European Union (EU), Australia and Argentina. Specifically, in Ukraine, production is forecast up 30% this year due to increased planting and favorable weather conditions. In Australia, production is up 700,000 MT to 34 MMT. Argentina may also produce a record wheat crop this year. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BAGE) estimates wheat production at 21 MMT, 1 MMT more than USDA’s December production estimate. USDA estimates 2021/22 world wheat ending stocks will drop 2% from the 5-year average and be 278 MMT, a 12 MMT drop compared to last year and the lowest level since 2016/17.

Global Consumption Outpaces Production

Fundamental support for wheat prices is also seen in global consumption that is expected to increase 7 MMT to 789 MMT, up 1% compared to 2020/21. Both global human wheat consumption and feed wheat use are forecast higher. Feed wheat use is expected to increase 2% to 161 MMT. Lower beginning stocks, drops in production for major exporters, and increased use have supported higher wheat prices overall. In the USDA’s December supply and demand report, the estimated average farm gate price for U.S. wheat is $7.05/bu, a 54% increase year-over-year.

USDA expects global wheat trade to reach 205 MMT, up 1% from last year and 6% more than the 5-year average.

Price Effect on Export Sales

Through Dec. 23, 2021, total U.S. wheat export sales of 15.8 MMT are 23% behind last year’s pace according to USDA commercial export sales data. Soft red winter (SRW) sales are significantly ahead of last year’s pace. USDA projects total 2021/22 exports will hit 22.8 MMT which, if realized, would be 16% less than last year and 13% less than the 5-year average.

Wheat Exports by Country

One year ago, USDA saw winter wheat seeded area was up 5% from 2020 at 32 million acres. USDA’s annual Small Grains Summary, released in September 2021, had U.S. wheat production at 1.65 billion bushels, down 10% from 2020 despite harvested area being up 1% at 37.2 million acres. Winter wheat production was up 9% but spring wheat production was down 44%, soft white production (both winter and spring) was down 16% and durum wheat production was down 46%.

USDA assessed that winter wheat production was 1.28 billion bushels, up 1.1 million bushels with an average yield of 50.2 bu/acre, down 0.7% compared to 2020. The area harvested for winter wheat was 25.5 million acres, up 11% compared to 2020. Hard red winter (HRW) harvested acres were up 10% and production totaled 749 million bushels, 14% more than in 2020. Soft red winter (SRW) production totaled 361 million bushels, up 35% compared to 2020. Spring wheat production was estimated at 331 million bushels, down 44% from 2020. The harvested area totaled 10.2 million acres, down 16% from 2020 with an estimated yield of 48.6 bu/acre. Hard red spring (HRS) accounted for 297 million bushels, down 44% from 2020.

Winter Wheat Planted area from 2021 to 2022

Ten years of winter wheat seeded area data from USDA illustrates another fundamental support for wheat prices.

Start 2022 With USW Market Information Reports

USW monitors USDA’s assessments of the fundamentals supporting wheat prices each month in our Global Wheat Supply and Demand Report. In addition to the January WASDE report, USDA’s Winter Wheat Seeding Report will also be released Jan. 12. Export prices are updated weekly. Visit the Market Information page on our website or subscribe to USW market reports here.

 

/by

Think Farm Export Programs Don’t Matter? Think Again.

GET THE REST OF THE STORY

DTN Wheat Detail
DTN Corn Detail

2008-2013 U.S. Wheat Associates. All Rights Reserved
Privacy Policy | Non-Discrimination Statement