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Recent news and highlights from around the U.S. wheat industry.

 

Speaking of Wheat

We are a family farm raising wheat for a global market, working diligently to be sustainable. Our desire is to share our slice of heaven with others while maintaining our farming heritage so that we can pass it to the next generation in a better state.” – The Heideman Family, Blown Away Ranch, Ione, Oregon

U.S. Thanksgiving Office and Publication Schedules

Thanksgiving is a time set aside as a U.S. holiday the last Thursday of November. The U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Headquarters and West Coast Offices will be closed Thursday, Nov. 24 and Friday, Nov. 25. In addition, the next Wheat Letter newsletter will be sent December 1 but you can keep up with posts in the Wheat Letter Blog at https://www.uswheat.org/wheat-letter/. In addition, the USW Price Report will not be published Friday, Nov. 25.

U.S. Winter Wheat Ratings Improve Slightly

While most U.S. winter wheat is planted and fighting dry conditions to be established before dormancy, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service reported a slight uptick in good to excellent crop conditions. Hard red winter and winter soft white wheat is off to a good start, industry sources say. Still, winter wheat conditions are still the lowest in many years at this time. At the USW Fall Board Meeting this week, farmers in Texas and Oklahoma said recent rain his keeping them from finishing their wheat planting, but they have several days available before they must declare “prevented planting” on those fields under USDA farm service programs. See the NASS report here.winter wheat ratings

Rail Labor Letter

With two unions voting not to ratify the tentative U.S. rail labor agreement and a Nov. 19 deadline for when a strike/lockout could occur, the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) and other members of an Agricultural Transportation Working Group sent a letter to Congress urging swift action to avert a rail strike. Read the industry letter here.

Can the UN Hold the Black Sea Grain Initiative Together?

Agri-Pulse reports that UN Under Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs Martin Griffiths has stated a commitment to removing the remaining obstacles to the exports of Russian food and fertilizer. He also stressed that negotiations would resume with Russia to try to assure that the deal that keeps millions of tons of Ukrainian grain exports flowing will not expire on Nov. 19. Government officials have not suggested that a deal to extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative and Russian demands for better access to international markets for its fertilizer are connected, but both have become a priority for the UN, which brokered the Initiative with Russia, Ukraine and Turkey.

USDA Drops U.S. Wheat Stocks But Increases Global Supply Estimate

USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for November not suggests lower U.S. ending stocks for 2022/23 based mostly on increased domestic use. USDA held the line on expected U.S. wheat exports at 21.09 million metric tons (MMT). Projected 2022/23 ending stocks would be the lowest level since 2007/08. U.S. wheat futures prices were down slightly midday on Nov. 10 following the report. The USDA’s latest global wheat outlook for 2022/23 is for increased supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Read more here and in the USW Supply and Demand Report.

South Dakota Cooperative Invests in EGT Export Business

World Grain reported that Agtegra Cooperative announced has finalized a minority stake in EGT, LLC, which operates an export grain terminal in Longview, Wash., on the Columbia River that is fed by four high-capacity elevators in Montana. “We are very excited to become a partner in EGT to provide Agtegra customers greater access to the global market,” said Agtegra CEO Jason Klootwyk. Read more here.

USW Board of Directors Meet

U.S. wheat farmers representing 17 state wheat commission member organizations on the USW Board of Directors met for their Fall meeting Nov. 6 to 9, 2022, in Salt Lake City, Utah. This was a joint board meeting with the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) and included two joint committee meetings on International Trade Policy and Wheat Innovation. The USW and NAWG boards of directors will hold their next joint meeting Jan. 30 to Feb. 3, 2023, in Washington, D.C.

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The 2022 U.S. HRS crop recovered from last year’s historic drought. This crop has many positive attributes, including higher supply levels, strong grading characteristics, little to no DON and sound kernel characteristics. Overall protein is lower, but over half of the crop still has protein levels of 14% (12% mb) or higher. While dough strength shows weaker than last year, buyers will find a crop that compares well with the five-year average.  Buyers can buy with confidence, but diligent contract specifications are still the best way to get the quality demanded.

The Season in Review

PLANTING varied across the region, with a timely mid-April start and finish in western and southern areas, compared to a historically late start and sluggish progress across central and eastern areas. Excessive soil moisture pushed final planting into mid-June over a large area, about three weeks behind normal.

Crop EMERGENCE was hindered in parts of the region due to a prolonged cold, wet spring. By June, conditions shifted to warm and dry, benefiting the overly wet areas and later planted crops, but drier, western areas experienced some crop stress. The growing season was favorable with adequate moisture and no excessive heat, promoting strong yield potential, except for drier western areas.

HARVEST began later than normal, but by August, warm, dry conditions allowed for rapid progress and accelerated development of the later planted fields. Favorable conditions continued into September, allowing for a quick harvest; harvest in parts of the region extended into early October.

PRODUCTION of the U.S. HRS crop, at 12.1 MMT, is up 50%, following last year’s severe drought.

HRS map

2022 Crop Highlights

The average GRADE for the 2022 HRS harvest survey is U.S. No. 1 Northern Spring (NS); 97% of Eastern Region samples and 85% of Western Region samples grade U.S. No. 1.

Average TEST WEIGHT is 62.1 lb/bu (81.6 kg/hl), higher than 2021 and 5-year averages.

Overall, the crop has lower VITREOUS KERNEL LEVELS (DHV), averaging 74% compared to 80% in 2021 but higher than the 5-year average.  Average DHV is higher for Western samples at 88% but lower for Eastern samples at 59% due to lower protein and lack of stress during the growing season.

PROTEIN averages 14.3% (12% mb), below 2021 and 5-year averages due to higher yields in areas and less stress during the growing season.

DON levels were near zero due to minimal disease pressures.

Average 1000 KERNEL WEIGHT (TKW) is 30.4 g, above 2021 and similar to the 5-year average.

A dry harvest produced a very sound crop with an average FALLING NUMBER of 386 sec.

Pictured are scenes from the 2022 hard red spring harvest in South Dakota. This year's crop made a substantial recovery from last year's drought-affected crop.

Pictured are scenes from the 2022 hard red spring harvest in South Dakota. This year’s crop made a substantial recovery from last year’s drought-affected crop.

Flour and Dough Data

BUHLER LABORATORY MILL FLOUR YIELD averages 66.2%, slightly higher than 2021 but lower than the 5-year average. Lab mill settings are not adjusted to account for kernel parameter shifts between crop years and a wider variance in TKW and kernel size may have impacted milling yield.

Average FLOUR ASH is 0.49%, equal to 2021 but significantly lower than the 5-year average of 0.53%.

WET GLUTEN averages 34.5%, notably lower than 2021 and 5-year averages.

AMYLOGRAPH values average 724 BU, down from 2021 but up notably from the 5-year average.

DOUGH PROPERTIES suggest a weaker, more extensible crop as compared to last year. Dough property values are more in line with five-year average values.

The average LOAF VOLUME is 938 cc, lower than 2021 and 5-year averages; Western area averages 940 cc and Eastern area averages 937 cc.

Average BAKE ABSORPTION is 71.4%, significantly higher than 2021 and 5-year averages.

BREAD SCORES are similar to 2021 and the 5-year average.

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The 2022 U.S. wheat harvest is complete and this week, USDA estimated farmers have seeded 79% of the 2023 winter wheat crop. As winter approaches and the planted crop goes dormant, a supply and demand update across all U.S. wheat classes is warranted. The annual U.S. Wheat Crop Quality Report can be found here.

Last year’s hard red spring (HRS) wheat, durum, and white wheat crops were challenged by dry growing conditions. That is not the case for those classes this year, but hard red winter (HRW) was significantly impacted by adverse growing conditions. Below is an update across the wheat classes.

USDA estimates 2022/23 U.S. wheat production will total 44.9 MMT, 100,000 MT more than 2021/22 but 9% less than the 5-year average and the second lowest level in 20 years. According to USDA, the average yield for all U.S. wheat is forecast at 3.13 MT/HA, or 46.5 bu/acre, 5% higher than last year. The higher yields are due to a rebound in HRS, durum and white wheat yields. The yield for HRW is down significantly. The latest Small Grains Summary placed all wheat planted acres at 45.73 million acres, down 2% compared to 2021/22.

The latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report forecast U.S. wheat exports to total 21.09 MMT, down 3% from 2021/22 if realized. Through the week of October 13, USDA reported total wheat sales of 11.2 MMT, down 8% compared to the same time last year. The latest USDA Wheat Outlook suggested that tight supplies and historically high wheat prices have made U.S. wheat less competitive in the international market.

HRW

Hard White Wheat Harvest Narjes NebraskaAccording to USDA, the total HRW planted area fell slightly to 23.08 million acres. The area harvested fell more steeply at 15.24 million acres, 1.95 million acres less than in 2021/22. Overall U.S. HRW production is 14.5 MMT, 29 percent less than last year. Kansas, the largest HRW producing state, saw production drop 119,000 bushels compared to 2021/22. Oklahoma’s production dropped 40%, at 68,600 bushels, according to the Small Grains Report. Exports of HRW are forecast at 6 MMT, 30% less than in 2021/22. Year-to-date HRW sales of 3.1 MMT are 30% less than the pace last year. The top markets for HRW are Mexico, Japan, Nigeria, Brazil, and Colombia.

HRS

HRS wheat harvest 2022USDA estimates total HRS planted area in 2022 was 10.20 million acres, 390,000 fewer acres than 2021. The area harvest was up 5%, at 9.82 million acres. Heavy rain and cool temperatures early in the planting season slowed down spring wheat planting in parts of North Dakota and Minnesota. North Dakota HRS yield rebounded 49% from last year to 50 bushels per acre. USDA estimates total HRS production will rebound from last season and reach 12.1 MMT, 49% higher than in 2021. HRS exports are expected to reach 6.1 MMT, 400,000 MT higher than last season. Total HRS sales in 2022/23 were 2% higher than last year at 3.3 MMT. The top markets for HRS are the Philippines, Mexico, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.

SRW

 

Harvest scene to illustrate 2021 soft red winter wheat crop story

The total planted area for SRW is 6.57 million acres, 78,000 acres less than last season. The area harvested was 4.79 million acres, down slightly from last season. USDA estimates total SRW production in 2022 fell 600,000 MT to 9.2 MMT. However, exports are expected to increase year-over-year to 3.7 MMT. Total SRW sales in 2022/23 are 16% higher than the year prior at 2.0 MMT. The top markets for SRW were Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, and China.

White

Image of wheat harvest with four harvesters in the distance combining soft white wheat in Idaho.White wheat planted area, which includes more than 99% soft white (SW), totaled 4.24 million acres in 2022. The area harvested is 4.02 million acres, nearly identical to 2021/22. Improved growing conditions in Washington and Oregon increased yields significantly. Washington yields are 61% higher than last year, while Oregon’s yields are 51% higher, according to the Small Grains Report. White wheat production is estimated at 7.4 MMT, 1.9 MMT more than in 2021/22. Exports are expected to reach 4.6 MMT. Total white wheat (soft and hard) sales in 2022/23 are 17% higher than last year at 2.5 MMT. The top markets for white wheat were the Philippines, Japan, China, and South Korea.

Durum

 

Photo of durum kernels to illustrate durum production story

Total U.S. durum planted area in 2022 was 1.63 million acres, 10,000 acres less than last season. The area harvested was 1.58 million acres, 4% higher than last year. Improved weather conditions increased total durum yields by 64% to 40.5 bu/acre. USDA expects total U.S. durum production will be 1.7 MMT, rebounding 70% from last year’s drought-stricken crop. Exports are expected to total 700,000 MT. Total durum sales in 2022/23 are up 14% compared to the year prior at 139,300 MT. The top markets for durum were Italy, Algeria, Guatemala, and Japan.Conclusion

In the latest Wheat Outlook published by the USDA ERS division, the authors note the challenge posed by U.S. wheat competitors. The smaller U.S. wheat crop, higher barge (and rail) rates, continued logistical challenges, and the strong U.S. dollar will cut into the competitiveness of U.S. wheat exports. Putin’s war with Ukraine compounds these challenges.

U.S. wheat farmers continue to produce sufficient supplies of high-quality wheat to meet both domestic and international needs for literally hundreds of unique baked goods. And the U.S. wheat export system remains open for business.

In marketing year 2022/23 to date, Mexico is the top U.S. wheat buyer, despite purchasing 4% less than at the same time last year. The Philippines is the second largest U.S. wheat buyer, 20% behind its pace last year. Japan is the third largest U.S. wheat customer but remains 8% behind its purchase pace of last year.

*All sales data is through the week of October 13, 2022.

By USW Market Analyst Michael Anderson

 

 

 

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It was an unusually calm morning at Blown Away Ranch outside Ione, Oregon. Dozens of wind turbines surrounding Deacon and Erin Heideman’s farm operation were still as we pulled up to their tidy, welcoming homestead. A mastiff dog named Duke greeted us first. He was as big as a calf, but quickly let us know we were welcome.

I was travelling in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) with two Korean journalists doing research for an article on how U.S. wheat is developed, grown and transported to flour mills, bakeries and consumers in South Korea. U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) and the wheat commissions in Washington, Idaho and Oregon welcomed the opportunity to show these reporters the wholesome, reliable nature of our export supply system.

South Korean flour millers have imported U.S. wheat for more than 50 years. Over the past 10 years, the average import volume is almost 1.3 million metric tons (MMT) per year including soft white (SW) and Western White, hard red spring (HRS), and hard red winter (HRW).

In Washington’s Palouse Country

I met Mr. Changsup Song and Mr. Haewook Kim on a Monday afternoon at the Washington Grain Commission (WGC) office in Spokane, Wash. They had spent the morning learning about the Washington wheat industry with WGC CEO Glen Squires and Vice President Mary Palmer Sullivan. They also saw how up-country elevators like High Line Grain Growers near Cheney, Wash., load train cars with SW wheat bound for river terminals and export elevators.

Wheat and fallow fields in eastern Washington's Palouse Country seen from the peak of Steptoe Butte

Eastern Washington’s Palouse Country (here from atop Steptoe Butte near Colfax, Wash., in October 2022) boasts one of the world’s most ideal places to grow wheat.

On the drive from Spokane to Pullman, Wash., we braved the tight curves on the drive up Steptoe Butte to take in the panoramic view of Washington’s iconic Palouse Country. Here and there we could see the dust from a few farmers still planting winter SW in mid-October. Away from irrigated land around rivers, dry land farmers in the region plant into fields that have lain fallow for a full year to increase available moisture and improve organic matter in the soil.

On the Washington State University (WSU) campus in Pullman, the journalists saw how WGC invests money from wheat farm families in new variety research and development. At the recently expanded breeding lab, Dr. Aaron Carter, Professor, O.A. Vogel Endowed Chair in Winter Wheat Breeding and Genetics, WSU, and Dr. Kim Garland-Campbell, Research Geneticist, USDA-ARS, explained how their work serves both farmers and end-users. Field testing proves the yield potential of each new line. The functional quality of flour from the varieties is first tested in cooperation with the USDA’s Agricultural Research Service Western Wheat Quality Laboratory on the WSU campus where Research Biologist Dr. Alecia Kiszonas hosted our tour.

Conventional Cross-Breeding is the mainstay of work done by Washington State University and the USDA-ARS. USDA geneticist Dr. Kim Garland-Campbell showed Korean journalist Haewook Kim (above) research on new Club wheat varieties. Breeding efforts focus on developing cultivars with high yield potential, excellent end-use quality, and resistance to biotic and abiotic stress.

How the Wheat is Moved

Our little team moved on to Lewiston, Idaho, where Song and Kim interviewed Genesee wheat farmer and Idaho Wheat Commissioner Joe Anderson. Their questions focused on the varieties Anderson plants and about the risk management tools available to PNW farmers. A stop at the Lewis and Clark Terminal showed how farmers deliver truckloads of grain that is segregated by protein level, stored and then loaded onto barges for the journey down the Snake River to the Columbia River and export elevators in the Portland, Ore., area. The Port of Lewiston is the most inland port on the U.S. west coast.

Korean journalist Changsup Song photographs soft white wheat being unloaded from a trailer at the Lewis and Clark Terminal in Lewiston, Idaho.

Korean Journalist Changsup Song photographs soft white wheat being unloaded from a pup trailer at the Lewis and Clark Terminal in Lewiston, Idaho.

Our long drive from Lewiston, through Washington State’s Tri-Cities, to Portland featured the truly unique vistas along the Columbia River and the wheat country of northern Oregon.

Korean journalist Kim in front of the Heideman family's wheat seeding rig

Ready to Ride. Journalist Haewook Kim rode with Deacon Heideman as he planted soft white wheat at Blown Away Ranch.

Our visit with the Heideman family gave Song and Kim additional insight into dry-land wheat farming, while enjoying fresh, homemade cake baked with flour from the family’s operation. The chance to ride and talk with Deacon Heideman as he planted soft white wheat was a highlight for the journalists. The photo at the top of this page is from the ranch’s website.

We are a family farm raising wheat for a global market, working diligently to be sustainable. Our desire is to share our slice of heaven with others while maintaining our farming heritage so that we can pass it to the next generation in a better state.” – The Heideman Family, Blown Away Ranch, Ione, Oregon

Outside of Grass Valley, Ore., USW Past Chairman Darren Padget discussed how PNW farmers help ensure they produce the best quality wheat possible by publishing a Preferred Variety List based on yield potential and functional quality. His family had completed harvest and winter wheat planting by the time our team arrived, but Darren was able to show Song and Kim the operation’s seeding, application and harvesting equipment.

Assuring Quality and Supply

In Portland, Ore., after a briefing with the USW West Coast Office team and the Oregon Wheat Commission, the journalists visited the Wheat Marketing Center, offering an impressive look at how farmers invest a part of their own incomes into demonstrating the diversity and quality of U.S. wheat to domestic and overseas customers.

At the regional USDA Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS) office, experienced inspector Jimmy Pan offered a complete demonstration of how the agency independently inspects wheat at vessel loading to certify that the quality of the wheat loaded matches the quality stated in the customer’s import contract.

FGIS inspector Jimmy Pan demonstrates the wheat inspection process to Korean journalists.

Standardized Wheat Inspection. At the FGIS regional office in Portland, inspector Jimmy Pan demonstrated to journalists Kim and Song the process inspectors must follow to certify that wheat bound for overseas customers is the same as what the customers asked for.

Even as the world’s wheat buyers face a lot of uncertainty in today’s market, USW, the farmers we represent and our state wheat commission members were happy to open up our system, processes and quality to these Korean journalists. We believe that transparency contributes to world food security and economic stability.

We also believe Mr. Song and Mr. Kim left the United States with assurance that the U.S. industry will remain an open, dependable supplier of the highest quality wheat in the years ahead.

USW thanks every organization that helped make arrangements for this important team event.

A Korean journalist photographs a wheat export elevator and loading ship on the Willamette River in Portland, Oregon.

Loading SW Wheat. Through the foggy conditions, Korean journalist Changsup Song photographs a vessel being loaded across the Willamette River at the TEMCO LLC export elevator in Portland.

By USW Vice President of Communications Steve Mercer.

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U.S. durum producers appreciate World Pasta Day – widely celebrated each Oct. 25 – because it pays tribute to a product made from the wheat they grow.

But many of them agree with Erica Olson, who believes “every day is Pasta Day” for at least one segment of the wheat industry.

That will be especially true next month when Olson, market development and research manager for the North Dakota Wheat Commission, travels to Europe to participate in a U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Crop Quality Seminar. Over the course of a week, Olson and USW Vice President of Programs Erica Oakley will present on the 2022 U.S. wheat crop – including durum, the primary wheat class used for making pasta – to wheat buyers in Italy and the United Kingdom. Other USW staff will host similar sessions for buyers in Spain and Portugal.

“Buyers from Italy are especially curious each year to hear about the U.S. durum crop and there are always a lot of questions,” explained Olson. “They are very quality-conscious, and pasta makers in Italy have a strong focus on the quality of the wheat they purchase. This year we will be able to share that the U.S. durum supply has rebounded, and the overall crop is exceptionally good.”

North Dakota produces a majority of the U.S. northern durum crop, followed by Montana. The Desert Durum® class is grown in Arizona and California.

Among the things Olson and Oakley will share with European buyers about the 2022 U.S. durum crop is that semolina color values are very high, which is an important quality for pasta makers who annually seek two things in the wheat they purchase: color and hardness.

Celebrating Pasta on a Global Scale

World Pasta Day was the result of 40 pasta makers from around the world gathering in Rome, Italy in 1995 for the inaugural World Pasta Congress. The goal of the special day is to promote  pasta consumption, as well celebrating its culinary and cultural importance.

The International Pasta Organization (IPO) was formed on Oct. 25, 2005, and was formally constituted in Italy a year later. IPO coordinates international communications aimed at safeguarding the product, develops common strategies to promote the worldwide consumption of pasta, and creates and manages information and food education.

While celebrations vary in each country, World Pasta Day focuses on consumers – the people around the world who enjoy eating some of the 600 or so shapes and sizes of pasta.

For U.S. durum producers, World Pasta Day is an opportunity to take pride in the role they play in putting high quality pasta on the plates of consumers around the world.

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Buyers will find a larger supply of durum from the northern part of the United States in 2022. This high-quality crop boasts excellent grading and kernel characteristics and high falling numbers. Lower than average protein levels, along with pockets of lower 1000 kernel weights and smaller kernels, can be managed through diligent contract specifications. Dough properties look to be strong, as do cooked pasta characteristics. With high vitreous levels, low moisture, high test weights, little to no damage, sound kernel characteristics and high color scores, this crop will provide tremendous value to buyers.Durum map

2022 CROP HIGHLIGHTS

The average GRADE of the 2022 crop is U.S. No. 1 Hard Amber Durum (HAD); 75% of the crop grades U.S. No. 1 HAD, up from 39% in 2021.

Average TEST WEIGHT of 61.8 (80.4 kg/hl), above last year and the 5-year averages.

DAMAGE was quite low at 0.1% due to minimal disease pressure; SHRUNKEN AND BROKEN KERNELS were at 1.0% with pockets of slightly higher levels due to dryness during kernel fill.

The average VITREOUS KERNEL (HVAC) content is 92%, higher than last year and five-year averages. Nearly two-thirds of the samples were above 90% HVAC, but pockets of the crop saw lower HVAC levels due to low protein levels.

PROTEIN averages 13.7% (12% mb), lower than last year’s drought-impacted crop, and is a result of above-average yields in parts of the region, as well as heat and moisture induced higher protein levels in other areas. Nearly 70% of the samples are above 13.0% protein.

The average 1000 KERNEL WEIGHT (TKW) is 40.4 g, slightly lower than last year. This year has a wider than normal distribution of 1000 kernel weights and kernel sizes across the growing region.

For the second year, KERNEL MOISTURE was lower (11.0%) than average due to a mostly dry harvest period.

FALLING NUMBER values are high, with the average being 433 seconds, with 99 percent of the crop above 300 seconds.

For a second consecutive year, DON is nearly non-existent in all production regions in 2022.

 

Farmers in the northern part of the U.S. produced a larger durum wheat crop in 2022. The U.S. Wheat Crop Quality Report shows high vitreous levels, low moisture, high test weights, little to no damage, sound kernel characteristics and high color scores, this crop will provide tremendous value to buyers.

Wheat farmers in the northern part of the U.S. produced a larger durum crop in 2022. The U.S. Wheat Associates Crop Quality Report shows that this year’s crop has high vitreous levels, low moisture, high test weights, little to no damage, sound kernel characteristics and high color scores. Overall, durum is expected to provide tremendous value to buyers around the world.

 

LABORATORY MILLING for the 2022 survey was performed on a Quadromat® Junior mill, the same as the previous three years. Semolina extraction is 53.9%, indicating a reduction in extraction from last year; commercial mills are likely to see higher extraction values. Some adjustment for smaller kernel size and lighter 1000 kernel weight in portions of the crop may be required.

ASH is similar to last year at 0.64%, with SPECK COUNTS higher than last year but similar to the five-year average.

SEMOLINA PROTEIN is 12.0%, well below recent years due to lower kernel protein.

Similarly, GLUTEN INDEX values and WET GLUTEN are both lower.

SEMOLINA COLOR shows a notable improvement in the b value (yellow color) at 31.2, with similar brightness to the five-year average.

MIXING PROPERTIES reveal a slightly weaker crop, due in part to the lower protein content.

COOKED SPAGHETTI EVALUATIONS show improved color, with less cooking loss, but slightly lower cooked weight and firmness.

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The 2022 hard white (HW) samples show good quality performance in milling, dough properties and finished products, including pan breads, Asian noodles and steamed breads. The Pacific Northwest (PNW), California and Southern Plains composites all show acceptable to excellent bread baking potential according to their respective protein contents. For Asian noodle applications, using 60% extraction patent flour is recommended to improve noodle color while maintaining noodle texture. For steamed breads, it is recommended that high protein HW flour be blended with a portion of soft white (SW) flour to improve product quality.Map and graphics showing the region and number of hard white samples analyzed for quality in 2022

2022 CROP HIGHLIGHTS

PRODUCTION for the 2022 HW crop is 472,308 MT, down 33%compared to last year and the 5-year average. Much of the decrease is due to extreme drought conditions experienced across the Southern Plains. Seeded acres were also down for winter and spring planted hard white compared to 2021.

GRADE average for all composites is U.S. No. 1.

TEST WEIGHT averages range from 60.2 to 62.6 lb/bu (79.2 to 82.3 kg/hl).

WHEAT MOISTURE ranges are 8.4 to 10.5%; WHEAT PROTEIN 11.3 to 13.9% (12% mb).

1000 KERNEL WEIGHT for the Southern Plains very high-, Pacific Northwest very high- and California high-protein composites are 26.6, 27.8 and 28.2 g, respectively. All others are 30.0 g or higher.

KERNEL CHARACTERISTICS include kernel hardness averages of 50.6 to 78.7 and kernel diameters of 2.47 to 2.86 mm.

FALLING NUMBER averages 382 sec or higher for all composites.

LABORATORY MILL straight-grade flour extractions range 70.2 to 74.3%, L* values (whiteness) 92.2 to 92.9, flour protein 10.9 to 13.3% (14% mb) and flour ash 0.43 to 0.51% (14% mb).

Extreme drought conditions in the Southern Plains caused production of hard white wheat to decline in 2022. However, samples of the crop show good quality performance in milling, dough properties and finished products.

Production of hard white wheat declined in 2022, but samples of the crop show good quality performance in milling, dough properties and finished products.

 

Flour and Dough Data

Flour WET GLUTEN contents range 28.2 to 35.4% depending on flour protein content.

AMYLOGRAPH peak viscosities are between 759 and 1076 BU for all composites.

FARINOGRAPH water absorptions range 57.2 to 65.1% and stability times 8.0 to 40.3 min, exhibiting medium to strong dough characteristics. HW farinograph water absorption is usually similar to that of HRW, but historically stability time is longer, indicating more tolerance to overmixing.

EXTENSOGRAPH data at 135 min rest shows maximum resistance in the range of 462 to 1126 BU, extensibility from 6.5 to 17.9 cm and area of 69 to 206 cm2. Maximum resistance for the California low- and Southern Plains medium-protein composites are 544 and 462 BU, respectively. All other composites are 717 BU or higher.

ALVEOGRAPH ranges are P (68 to 128 mm); L (81 to 130 mm); and W (227 to 389 (10-4 J)).

DAMAGED STARCH values are in the range of 4.3 to 8.3%.

Lactic acid SRC values range from 129 to 156%, indicating medium to strong gluten strength.

Product Test Results

BAKING EVALUATION for all composites shows acceptable to excellent baking performance relative to protein content, with bake absorptions in the range of 62.2 to 70.1%, loaf volumes of 728 to 985 cc, and crumb grain and texture scores that are similar to or better than a typical HRW flour.

CHINESE RAW NOODLES (white salted) L* values after 24 hr of storage at room temperature are acceptable for all composites except the PNW medium-protein composite. The sensory color stability scores are acceptable for all composites with the exception of the PNW medium- and California high-protein composites. Cooked noodle texture is acceptable for all composites.

CHINESE WET NOODLES (yellow alkaline) sensory color stability scores are similar to or better than the control for parboiled noodles from the California and Southern Plains composites. The cooked noodle texture is acceptable for all composites except the PNW medium-protein composite.

Overall, this year’s HW samples will produce noodles with acceptable color and texture if low ash patent flour is used.

STEAMED BREAD results show most composites have good specific volumes with total scores similar to the control flour with the exception of the Southern Plains very high-protein composite. Blending 25% SW flour with high protein HW flour may improve overall steamed bread quality.

 

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Recent news and highlights from around the U.S. wheat industry.

 

Speaking of Wheat

This [baking certification] course is an excellent way to stimulate the bakery sector, [that is] essential for the daily lives of Brazilians, even more. We embrace this idea because it aligns with the commitment we have to strengthen and develop this industry that is so important for the country.” – Paulo Menegueli, President of the Brazilian Bakery and Confectionery Industry Association (ABIP), discussing the benefits of the U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) sponsored Online Baking Certification program developed by USW Santiago. Read more here.

Rain in Eastern Australia Threatens Wheat Crop

Widespread rains in Australia’s eastern grain producing states could hurt that region’s 2022/23 wheat crop, traders and analysts told Reuters this week. “Nearly half the wheat crop, or around 6-7 million tonnes, is at risk of quality downgrades in [New South Wales],” said Ole Houe, director of advisory services at agriculture brokerage IKON Commodities in Sydney. “We could end up having large volumes of feed quality wheat on the east coast.” Read more here.

U.S. Gulf Grain Exports Slowed by Low Mississippi River

U.S. crop exports at Louisiana Gulf Coast terminals were at their lowest level in nine years for the first week of October, a period when export shipments typically accelerate, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data issued on Tuesday. Low water on southern sections of the Mississippi River closed the major shipping waterway for days last week, halting the flow of grain barges from Midwest farms to the nation’s largest grain shipping port. Read more here.

U.S. Rail Strike Back on Table?

The U.S.’s third largest railroad union rejected a deal with employers on October 10, renewing the possibility of a strike that seemed to be averted when a tentative agreement was reached in September. Wheat farmers are uniquely reliant on rail due to the large distances between production and consumption. Rail has moved more than 27 million metric tons of U.S. wheat over the last five years. The group that represents the railroads in negotiations shared disappointed that the union rejected the agreement, but emphasized the union agreed to keep working for now.

Past USW Chair Still Giving Back

Keith Kisling, who served as U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Chairman in 2004/05, and his wife Marlene recently donated a large volume of wheat from their farm that will help fund a new state-of-the-art teaching, research and Extension facility for the agricultural division of Oklahoma State University. With the gift, a faculty office in the new facility will be named in their honor. The Kisling family farms near Burlington, Okla. Read more here.

Climate Smart USDA Grant Earmarked for Idaho Wheat Growers

University of Idaho’s College of Agricultural and Life Sciences is set to receive up to $55 million to help Idaho farmers and ranchers combat climate change through agricultural practices. The five-year USDA grant will support research on building cropping systems, including for wheat, that are more resilient to climate change. The grant will directly benefit more than 100 Idaho farmers and ranchers. Research will focus on the state’s staple commodities, such as wheat, potatoes, beef, sugar and other crops.

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With a significant decline in U.S. wheat production, the September 30, 2022, the USDA/NASS Small Grains Summary report took many wheat traders and analysts by surprise. The report estimated total production at 44.91 million metric tons (MMT) 1.65 billion bushels of total U.S. wheat production, down 3.62 MMT from August estimates.

The quarterly report is the culminating outlook for the U.S. wheat crop and follows the Grain Stocks report in January, the Prospective Plantings report released in March, and the Acreage Report released in June.

An article in  Farm Futures, noted that all the pre-report trader estimates missed the mark except for white wheat production. Wheat futures rallied after USDA released the Small Grains Summary. December 2022 Chicago soft red winter futures closed 3% higher on the tighter outlook. Kansas City and Minneapolis exchanges were also higher. Reflecting the now apparently standard volatility, futures prices then retreated as speculators adjusted their market positions at the start of the new month.

Behind the Production Drop

U.S. wheat farmers faced many obstacles this year. Hard red winter (HRW) farmers experienced prolonged hot and dry conditions in the lower Plains states, especially Kansas, Oklahoma, the Texas Panhandle, and Colorado. In the upper Plains states, hard red spring (HRS) farmers faced heavy rain and cool temperatures early in the planting season, causing planting delays and ultimately lowering the amount of spring wheat area planted this year, offset a bit by an increase in harvested area compared to the 2021 drought year.

USDA-NASS data on changes to production, yield and stocks for winter wheat from the 2022 Small Grains Summary

Drought in parts of the southern and central hard red winter wheat production region and other factors prompted USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) to make a substantial reduction in total 2022 U.S. wheat production in its Sept. 20 Small Grains Summary.

The Small Grain Summary showed an improved yield when combining all wheat classes. The “All Wheat Classes” yield was up 5% from 2021 at 46.5 bushels per acre (bu/acre). The improved yield was boosted by a dramatic recovery in spring wheat which the report recorded at 46.2 bu/acre compared to 32.6 bu/acre in 2021, a 42% improvement in yield. However, winter wheat yield was down 6% compared to 2021 at 47 bu/acre. Durum wheat also saw a significant improvement in yield year-over-year at 40.5 bu/acre up 64% compared to last year.

WASDE Reflects Changes

The USDA applied the revised production data from its Small Grains Summary in its October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on October 12. While 2022 production was lowered 3.62 MMT, beginning stocks were raised. Looking ahead, 2022 ending stocks were lowered, led by a 900,000 MT reduction in SRW stocks. The ending stocks estimate, pegged at 15.68 MMT, is down nearly 14% from last year and, if realized, would be the lowest since 2007/08. Exports were trimmed 1.09 MMT to 21.09 MMT, if realized this will be the lowest export total in over 50 years (noting that U.S. exports were 21.20 MMT in marketing year 2015/16).

New Information, Different Result

In keeping with the volatile pattern, despite USDA’s latest estimate reducing total U.S. and world wheat production, futures did not rally as they did after the Small Grain Summary. Instead, the Chicago December SRW contract was down 18 cents. Kansas City HRW was down 20 cents, and the Minneapolis HRS contract was down 18 cents. Including supply changes, this market is loaded with uncertainty, including the on-going conflict in Ukraine, the high value of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies, and news of challenging weather conditions here in the United States and other wheat exporting countries. As always, your local U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) representatives are ready to help the world’s wheat buyers navigate these challenging conditions.

By USW Market Analyst Michael Anderson

 

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Building upon its long relationship with Brazilian flour millers while also learning about current market conditions across South America, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) recently took part in the Abitrigo Congress in Foz de Iguazu, Brazil.

During this year's Abitrigo Congress, USW presented a course completion certificate for its Online Baking Certification program to the owner one of Brazil’s largest milling companies

During this year’s Abitrigo Congress, USW presented a course completion certificate for its Online Baking Certification program to the owner one of Brazil’s largest milling companies.

Abitrigo, the association representing the Brazilian wheat milling industry, had not held an in-person annual meeting since 2019. USW President Vince Peterson said attendees from all industry sectors were thrilled to finally be able to engage in business face-to-face.

“Everyone we spoke with noted how nice it was to be back together,” said Peterson, who was joined by USW Vice Chairman Michael Peters and staff members from the USW Santiago Office. “Our presence is a way to show how important Brazilian millers and buyers are to U.S. wheat producers and the entire U.S. wheat industry. It gives us an opportunity to interact with key wheat buyers and have discussions with both new and long-time representatives of the mills.”

Peters, who was attending his first Abitrigo meeting, was impressed with the work of the USW Santiago office, which was represented by Regional Director Miguel Galdos, Assistant Regional Director Osvaldo Seco, Technical Specialist Andres Saturno and Senior Marketing Specialist Claudia Gomez.

“It was very clear that our staff has tremendous relationships with millers in that part of the world and have earned the respect of the industry,” said Peters, a wheat producer and cattle rancher from Okarche, Oklahoma. “It is a tough and competitive market for U.S. wheat, but we’ve remained connected and have done a great job of maintaining U.S. wheat’s reputation for providing a high-quality product.”

USW took center stage during one segment of this year’s meeting when it presented a course completion certificate for its Online Baking Certification program, a new USW technical project that promotes baking methods using all six U.S. wheat classes. The recipient owns one of Brazil’s largest milling companies.

“Having a significant business owner take her personal time to take the USW baking course is quite a compliment,” Peterson noted.

Abitrigo provides more information about its endorsement of the USW Online Baking Certification program on its website.

While Brazil has been importing U.S. wheat for more than 40 years, it still is an extremely competitive market due to Brazil’s domestic production and advantages enjoyed by some U.S. competitors, including Argentina and other countries that have mostly duty-free access under the Mercosur Agreement. In 2019, Brazil agreed to implement an annual duty-free tariff rate quota (TRQ) of 750,000 metric tons of wheat imports from countries not part of the Mercosur Agreement.

Peterson pointed out that the quality of U.S. wheat remains desirable to many Brazilian buyers.

“The core of the Brazilian milling industry recognizes that U.S. hard red winter (HRW) and soft red winter (SRW) wheat – and even hard red spring (HRS) wheat, which has been purchased by Brazilian customers this year – are the most applicable wheat sources to produce the best quality Brazilian wheat food products. Because of this, the market continues to be a long-term priority. And we will continue providing the best service and support we can to Brazilian millers and bakers.”