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U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) recently connected and reconnected with customers of U.S. wheat at the International Association of Operative Millers Southeast Asia Chapter Meeting, a regular gathering of flour millers and technicians held this year in Surabaya, Indonesia. Joe Sowers, USW Regional Vice President for South and Southeast Asia, presented during the event, emphasizing the quality and value of the six classes of U.S. wheat. Sowers and USW technicians Ivan Goh and Sam Yap engaged wheat buyers and users in markets across Southeast Asia throughout the meeting.

“This event allows us to tell our story to the people that are actually making the flour in these important markets to help them understand the benefits of U.S. wheat,” said Sowers. “It gives us a chance to meet face to face with the millers in the region, make new contacts, and connect with older ones. So it’s a nice chance to solidify relationships across the region.”

Hear more from Sowers and see more from the IAOM meeting in this short video . . .

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News and Information from Around the World Wheat Industry

Speaking of Wheat

It’s a million-dollar rain, and a lot of farmers could not be happier to see this. This could not be more perfect right now, to be able to give the wheat a drink for winter, to last it to spring, number two, give it a little bit of healthy growth before we completely shut down for winter.” — Kansas Wheat Farmer John Jenkinson. Read more here.

Federal Grant Supports Export Elevator Rail Project

A TEMCO rail expansion project at Washington’s Port of Kalama has secured a $26.3 million grant from the Federal Rail Administration’s CRISI Program. The facility exports grains, oilseeds, and wheat to Asia-Pacific markets. The project will add track to improve efficiency by up to 30%, allow for continuous ship loading without repositioning railcars, and improved rail infrastructure to expedite export processes for Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Norther Plains farmers. Read more here.

U.S. Ag Official Addresses Global Challenges at Kansas Event

In remarks at the Kansas Governor’s Summit on Agricultural Growth, USDA Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Alexis Taylor discussed how trade can further strengthen both Kansas agriculture and the nation. She also said Kansas, with its wheat, beef, and grain production, stands to benefit from USDA’s Regional Agricultural Promotion Program (RAPP) that is investing $1.2 billion to promote U.S. ag products in existing and emerging markets.

Alexis Taylor, USDA Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, right, joined a panel discussion at a Kansas Governor’s Summit on Agricultural Growth.

Wheat Genome Research Will Enhance Breeding Outcomes

The work of an international team of researchers to detail the genome of a wild wheat relative was published in the journal “Nature.” In August. Michigan State University noted that by studying the genetic makeup of Tausch’s goatgrass and other wild wheat relatives, breeders and geneticists can use the knowledge to improve modern bread wheat. An MSU professor on the team said the research will help identify individual genetic traits that may even be important for climate resiliency or other characteristics that are critical for modern wheat production. Read more here.

USDA Reports on Climate Smart Agriculture Projects

USDA has invested $3.03 billion dollars in 135 pilot projects nationwide to connect customers to farmers, ranchers, and private landowners implementing “climate smart” production practices on working lands “to build soil health, sequester carbon, and enhance productivity.” The agency recently reported on the number and diversity of projects incentivized by the Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities. Read the report here (pdf link). Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities Report Summary – June 2024 Data

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.

 

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Like U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) and other wheat industry organizations, the Wheat Foods Council (WFC) is funded in part directly by wheat farmers. And, like WFC, many of our milling and baking customers around the world are also supporting public campaigns to increase wheat food consumption.

USW is sharing excerpts here from a recent interview with WFC President Tim O’Connor in an episode of “Wheat’s on Your Mind,” a podcast sponsored by Kansas Wheat. Julia Debes wrote the original article for Kansas Wheat.

“We work to increase demand for the 50% of wheat that’s produced in the U.S. that’s not exported,” O’Connor said. “It stays here in this marketplace, and we have to deal with the challenges and the opportunities that the U.S. marketplace presents us.”

The WFC is an industry-wide partnership dedicated to increasing domestic wheat food consumption through nutrition information, research, education and promotional programs. The Council has a unique membership, comprised of the entire wheat value chain, including state wheat commissions supported by wheat checkoff dollars.

Above, while USW and the Wheat Foods Council focus on different customers, they have a common goal: boosting the bottom line of U.S. farmers. Both are considered valuable partners and collaborators in the U.S. wheat industry, and several state wheat associations belong to both organizations. 

“Here we have everybody from the growers, the state wheat commissions, the millers, the bakers, the ingredient suppliers, the life science companies. Everyone in the value chain can participate in the Wheat Foods Council,” O’Connor said. “Because the world looks different to a wheat grower than it does to a miller or a baker, when we can blend all of those points of view together to understand the challenges each sees, we can find a solution that’s a win-win for everyone.”

O’Connor and podcast host Aaron Harries, Kansas Wheat Vice President of Research & Operations, discussed how WFC currently has two major priorities for their work – tackling misperceptions about enriched wheat foods and leveraging influencers in the fitness and culinary sectors to reshape public perception.

Health Benefits of Enriched Flour

Enriched wheat flour is fortified with essential vitamins and minerals. This enrichment has provided major health benefits to consumers and represents most wheat foods products produced in the United States. Still, enriched wheat flour is largely misunderstood or misrepresented in nutritional information online.

“You can find thousands of articles on wonderful things about whole wheat,” O’Connor said. “But once you start looking for information on enriched wheat flour, it starts to get pretty negative very fast.”

Addressing this misperception, along with the larger challenge of combatting low-carb fad diets, requires a very strategic approach. But the WFC is trying to turn those messages around by working with groups that influence consumers: chefs and fitness professionals. Targeting these influencers offers more credibility than a seeming echo chamber of the wheat industry positively promoting their products. Plus, it is also more financially efficient because the organization can work with influencers who reach millions of people.

The first group that the Wheat Foods Council targets is [300,000] fitness professionals, including nutritionists and others who educate consumers about exercise, nutrition, weight loss, weight management and other related topics … who collectively reach several million consumers every day. The organization started by conducting surveys to better understand what information these groups gave consumers, finding that they promoted fad diets and misinformation.

Helping Chefs Incorporate Wheat Foods in Menus

In addition to fitness professionals, the Wheat Foods Council also decided to target the chefs who set the menus at major restaurant chains or work at food product companies. This includes chefs that set the menus at “industry institutional theaters” like college campuses, corporate campuses, sports venues and other places where people go every day and eat what is on the menu.

The approach to reaching these influential groups is similar … providing them with information on the nutritional value of wheat foods and how this ingredient can help meet consumer wants.

For fitness professionals, WFC conducts webinars that provide continuing educational credits, pulling in experts like Nancy Clark, an Olympian turned sports nutritionist, and Dr. Brett Carver, a wheat breeder at Oklahoma State University. For chefs and other decision-makers, the Council brings these experts to custom educational programs at places like the Culinary Institute of America. For both audiences, the Council also brings its expertise to industry conferences and provides educational material influencers can use on their social media channels.

Image from the Wheat Foods Council website of chefs learning new ways to include wheat foods in their menus.

“The food service industry feeds millions of people every day. We want them to see wheat foods as something that they want to consume, something that they value rather than buying into many of the trends that have vilified wheat foods,” said WFC President Tim O’Connor.

“We’ve had tremendous success in getting high-volume restaurant chains and high-volume food manufacturers coming to our events and going home with a whole different perspective on how to use wheat foods,” O’Connor said. “They feed millions of people every day. We want them to see wheat foods as something that they want to consume, something that they value rather than buying into many of the trends that have vilified wheat foods.”

This work requires a strategic approach and complex conversations, but at the end of the day, the Wheat Foods Council is providing simple and straightforward answers to consumer questions like: Is this good for me and my family? Do I want to serve this and eat this and feed it to my kids, or is this something I want to stay away from?

WFC President Tim O’Connor.

Each piece of education is a well-executed play from the Wheat Foods Council’s strategic playbook – driving demand for U.S. wheat and bringing a positive image of wheat back to the American dinner table. And it would not be possible without the support of the entire wheat industry, down to the individual wheat producer who pays into their state checkoff each harvest.

“This work is important to growers; it builds a more vibrant, dynamic marketplace for the wheat that they grow,” O’Connor said. “They need to know that the money they’re putting into these checkoff programs is being utilized to advance the work of the Wheat Foods Council along with the other organizations that work on international marketing and policy work on behalf of the industry.”

Listen to the full conversation with Tim O’Connor and all other episodes of the “Wheat’s on Your Mind” podcast at www.wheatsonyourmind.com.

 

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Grown primarily in the North Central region and shipped via the Pacific, Gulf and Great Lakes ports, hard red spring (HRS) wheat is second in production among U.S. wheat classes. USDA has pegged 2024 production at 13.7 million metric tons or 8% more than in 2023. 

Planting started slightly ahead of average due to milder spring weather and adequate moisture except in some western areas. Most of the eastern area had a humid, wet growing season with higher disease pressure and higher yields, while western areas were hot and dry, with minimal disease pressure and reduced yields. 

Harvest In the Gulf and Lakes exportable production area started in early August with a mix of dry conditions in the east compared rain and cooler temperatures in western North Dakota and eastern Montana before drying out. It stayed dry in western areas and hard red spring harvest was complete by mid-September.

Hard red spring wheat kernels

The aristocrat of wheat when it comes to “designer” wheat foods like bagels, artisan hearth breads, pizza crust and other strong dough applications, U.S. hard red spring (HRS) wheat is also a valued improver in flour blends. It has high protein of 12.0% to 15.0% (12% mb), hard endosperm, red bran, strong gluten and high water absorption.

PNW Exportable Crop Overview

The 2024 western region hard red spring wheat crop offers high grades, sound kernels, and high average protein content. Functional performance shows strong dough properties with slightly lower absorption. Baking properties are good with average bake absorption, but slightly lower loaf volumes. Due to the late season hot, dry conditions, this crop includes a wider range of yields, protein levels and kernel size. Overall, this is a highly functional crop.

Gulf/Lakes Exportable Crop Overview

The 2024 eastern HRS crop offers a high grade profile and many positive attributes. With some record yields, protein is lower than average. Overall average DON levels and lower falling numbers are not significant. Dough properties and absorption are lower with better performance in higher protein segments. Overall, this crop offers good performance attributes. 

Following are initial details about the hard red spring crop that U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) will share in the 2024 U.S. Wheat Crop Quality Report and Seminars. As always, USW recommends careful consideration of the new crop quality attributes to receive the highest value possible.

               2024 HRS PNW-Exportable Highlights                    2024 Gulf/Lakes Exportable Highlights
Grade: Average is U.S. No. 1 Dark Northern Spring (DNS), with 86% of samples grading U.S. No. 1. Grade: Average is U.S. No. 1 Northern Spring (NS), with 97% of samples grading U.S. No. 1.
Test Weight: Similar to last year but slightly lower than the 5-year average. Test weight: Similar to last year and the 5-year average.
Damaged kernels: Near zero, although shrunken and broken levels are slightly higher than 2023. Damaged kernels: Higher than last year and the 5-year average due to elevated disease pressure in central and eastern areas.
Vitreous kernel (DHV): Improved over last year and the 5-year average. Vitreous kernel (DHV): Improved over 2023, although still lower than typical due to harvest time rains and lower crop protein.
Wheat protein: Higher than last year, reflecting expanding dryness during growing season. Wheat protein: Averages trended lower in eastern areas due to higher yields and seasonal moisture.
DON: Slightly higher this year, with isolated pockets of Fusarium head blight pressure raising the average. DON: Higher this year, reflecting higher Fusarium head blight pressure.
1000 kernel weight (TKW): Lower than last year due to late-season heat stress but matches the 5-year average. 1000 kernel weight (TKW): Lower than last year but higher than the 5-year average.
Wheat falling number: Notably higher than a year ago, with 95% of the crop higher than 350 seconds. Wheat Falling Number: Lower than last year but similar to the 5-year average with nearly 80% of the crop over 350 seconds. Variability due to untimely rain in eastern areas.
Laboratory Mill extraction: Higher than last year and the 5-year average. Laboratory Mill extraction: Higher than last year and the 5-year average.
Flour ash: Similar to last year and slightly below the 5-year average. Flour ash: Similar to last year and lower than the 5-year average.
Amylograph: Notably higher than last year and the 5-year average, reflecting drier growing conditions and sound kernels. Amylograph: Notably lower than last year and the 5-year average, reflecting untimely rains during harvest in some parts of the eastern region.
Dough properties: Stronger characteristics compared to last year and the 5-year average. Dough properties: Weaker characteristics compared to last year and the 5-year average.
Farinograph absorption: Slightly lower than in recent years. Western area production shows strong dough characteristics. Farinograph absorption: Lower than in recent years, likely because of lower average protein levels. Eastern areas show weaker dough characteristics.
Alveograph: Stronger dough with a higher P/L ratio and higher W-value. Alveograph: Weaker dough with lower P/L ratio and lower W-value of 373.
Extensograph: Similar strength but greater extensibility, relative to last year and the 5-year average. Extensograph: Weaker dough properties with greater extensibility, relative to last year and the 5-year average.
Baking evaluations: Slightly lower loaf volumes compared to last year and the 5-year average. Dough handling properties scored slightly higher than in recent years, with good bread scores. Baking evaluations: Slightly lower loaf volumes compared to last year and the 5-year average. Dough handling properties scored slightly higher than in recent years, with good bread scores.
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News and Information from Around the World Wheat Industry

Speaking of Wheat

In 2024/25, despite less acreage being planted into wheat, more favorable weather is expected to boost [wheat] area harvested and yield compared with [2023/24]. Production is forecast higher for hard red winter, hard red spring, white, and durum classes of wheat as conditions have been generally favorable. While soft red winter production is down 24% from the previous year’s bumper crop, it is forecast above the recent 5-year average.” – From “U.S. Wheat Production Estimated at Highest Level in 8 Years,” Oct. 2, USDA-Economic Research Service.

Ultra-Processed Food Study Positive on Grain Foods

Thanks to the North American Millers’ Association for sharing an editorial from Sosland Publishing highlighting a recent study published in “The Lancet” that differentiates enriched grains from other categories of ultra-processed foods. Researchers cited data linking soft drinks, processed meats, and ready-to-eat foods with a higher type 2 diabetes risk while whole grain bread “displayed inverse associations.” A higher intake of bread and cereals was associated with a lower risk of stroke and cold cereal intake was associated with lower risk of cardiovascular disease.

Pasta is the one food I can’t live without. It’s delicious and nutritious.” – Giada De Laurentiis

Cultivating Crops to Nurture a Family Legacy

Johnsrud Family

“Eatwheat.org” was created by the Kansas Wheat Commission to share the story of America’s wheat farmers, and recently shared this story: In northwest North Dakota, Dustin Johnsrud, a fourth-generation farmer is cultivating a future for sustainable agriculture. Specializing in durum and spring wheat, along with other small grains like canola, peas and lentils, this no-till operation stands as a testament to modern farming practices that prioritize both efficiency and environmental stewardship. “I’ve always believed in minimizing our impact on the land,” Johnsrud explains. “Using no-till methods helps conserve moisture, which is vital given our semi-arid climate.”

2024 Borlaug CAST Communication Award Recipient

Congratulations to Mr. Jack Bobo, Director of the University of Nottingham’s Food Systems Institute, who is the recipient of the 2024 Borlaug CAST Communication Award (BCCA) that celebrates individuals who excel in communicating agricultural science to diverse audiences. The Council for Agricultural Science and Technology (CAST) is a nonprofit organization that assembles, interprets, and communicates credible, balanced, and science-based information about food, agriculture, natural resources, and related topics.

Support for Climate-Smart Practices Grows

USDA has released US$7.7 billion in assistance for fiscal year 2025 (Oct.- Sept.) to help agricultural and forestry producers adopt conservation practices on working lands. This includes up to $5.7 billion for climate-smart practices, made possible by the Inflation Reduction Act and $2 billion in Farm Bill funding. This is more than double the amount available last year and the most conservation assistance made available in a single year in U.S. history for popular USDA conservation programs. Read more here.

Washington Association of Wheat Growers Leader Honored

Michelle Hennings

Congratulations to Michelle Hennings, Executive Director, of the Washington Association of Wheat Growers, recipient of a 2024 Pacific Northwest Waterways Association Distinguished Service Award. Winners were selected for their significant contributions to the Northwest navigation, energy, irrigation, and recreation communities. Ms. Hennings is a leading voice advocating for preservation of navigation on the Columbia Snake River System, an essential part of the U.S. wheat export supply system.

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.

 

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Months of Cooperation

Months of work go into U.S. Wheat Associates’ (USW) annual Crop Quality Report and the Crop Quality Seminars that follow. But when the job is done, customers of U.S. wheat around the world benefit from an effort that requires cooperation across the entire wheat industry.

The Crop Quality Report includes information on everything from production, growing conditions, kernel characteristics, milling properties and baking performance, with the aim of offering valuable insights to wheat buyers and processors.

Transparency in Focus

“We share data on the crop to ensure transparency and inform customers about the quality of the U.S. wheat crop,” explains Erica Oakley, USW Vice President of Programs who leads the Crop Quality project each year. “The report is the culmination of a long process we are able to complete by partnering with, USDA, state wheat commissions and partner laboratories.”

Starting in late October and running through November, USW and a team of experts visits two dozen countries to conduct seminars based on the Crop Quality Report, which is made available on the USW website (www.uswheat.org).

To learn more about the crop and the 2024 USW Crop Quality Report, watch the short video below . . .

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Whether it’s in a meal of pasta in Italy or a dinner table somewhere else in the world, farmers who grow U.S. durum play a vital role in feeding the world while preserving the land for the next generation.

Whether it’s in a meal of pasta in Italy or a dinner table somewhere else in the world, farmers who grow U.S. durum play a vital role in feeding the world while preserving the land for the next generation.

As we celebrate World Pasta Day on October 25, it’s important to recognize the producers of one of the world’s most popular foods: U.S. durum wheat farmers. Durum wheat, the key ingredient in pasta, is grown mostly in North Dakota, Montana, and the Desert Durum® regions of Arizona and California. These farmers are committed not only to producing high-quality wheat but also practicing sustainable farming techniques that protect the land, resources, and durum supplies for future generations.

A Longstanding Commitment to Sustainability

Sustainability was a cornerstone of U.S. durum farming long before it became a consumer-driven expectation. Many U.S. farmers have employed conservation tillage and crop rotation to improve soil health and conserve water. For example, in Arizona, Desert Durum® farmers have found that rotating wheat with crops like lettuce can reduce irrigation water usage by nearly 30%. Additionally, no-till farming practices have increased significantly, with farmers reporting the use of no-till methods on 45% of wheat acres in 2017, up from just 20% in 2004.

This commitment is reflected in the substantial participation of U.S. wheat producers in USDA conservation programs. Between 2018 and 2021, U.S. wheat producers entered into over 7,500 contracts through Farm Bill programs that promote cover crops, erosion control, and reduced tillage – vital practices that help ensure the long-term viability of their land and crops.

Mark Birdsall, Vice Chairman of the North Dakota Wheat Commission, harvests wheat on his farm near Berthold, North Dakota. Birdsall grows durum and hard red spring wheat.

Mark Birdsall, Vice Chairman of the North Dakota Wheat Commission, harvests wheat on his farm near Berthold, North Dakota. Birdsall grows durum and hard red spring wheat.

“The generational nature of farming also drives our sustainable efforts,” said Mark Birdsall, vice-chairman of the North Dakota Wheat Commission. “I have kids farming. I have grandkids that are going to farm, and they’re going to have kids who are going to farm, too. Anything I can do to generate better soil health and a structure that will maintain this farm for years and years to come, long after I’m gone, I guess, is what I would consider beneficial to everyone.”

Durum Wheat’s Role in a Changing Market

In recent years, the world’s consumers have become more environmentally conscious, placing greater emphasis on how their food is grown.

Durum wheat, the key ingredient in pasta, is grown mostly in North Dakota, Montana, and the Desert Durum® regions of Arizona and California.

Durum wheat, the key ingredient in pasta, is grown mostly in North Dakota, Montana, and the Desert Durum® regions of Arizona and California.

Research from U.S. universities and global studies, such as PwC’s “Voice of the Consumer” survey, indicate that a significant number of shoppers are willing to pay more for sustainably produced food, particularly when producers are transparent about their methods. This demand aligns perfectly with the practices already employed by U.S. durum farmers and their commitment to continuous production improvement.

“We’re increasingly aware that consumers are becoming more interested in where their food comes from. We see the relationship between producers, processors, and consumers growing closer. In the long run, I believe this is a win-win situation,” said Birdsall.

This combination of quality and responsible farming has helped U.S. durum wheat stand out in the global marketplace. Whether it’s in a meal of pasta in Italy or a dinner table in the United States, U.S. durum and the families who produce it play a vital role in feeding the world while preserving the land for the next generation.   

                                                                              – Article by Jesse Harding Campbell

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As the Northern Hemisphere harvest concludes and crops in the Southern Hemisphere near maturation, wheat markets are still highly sensitive to weather-related news. As headlines about dry conditions around the globe come and go, and markets fluctuate daily, having information about the current drought conditions worldwide and potential impacts remains important to wheat buyers.

Southern Hemisphere

At this stage in the Southern Hemisphere, weather conditions become crucial for determining yield potential.

In September, persistent dryness in Western Australia prompted the state’s grain industry association to reduce the region’s output by 7% to 9.3 million metric tons (MMT), while late-season frost had detrimental effects across southeast Australia. In response, private analysts lowered their total Australian production estimates to between 27 MMT and 29 MMT. Despite the decrease, current projections still align with the five-year average of 29.8 MMT. Likewise, estimates from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) and the October World Agricultual Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) held their forecasts steady at 31.9 MMT and 32 MMT, respectively.

Map of Australia indicating rainfall measurements across the country.

After a period of dry conditions, private analysts decreased their Australian wheat production estimates to between 27 and 29 MMT. Despite the decrease, current projections align with the five-year average of 29.8 MMT and ABARES estimates remain unchanged at 31.8 MMT. Source: ABARES.

Similarly, in Argentina, a recent update from the Rosario Grains Exchange decreased Argentinian wheat production 1.0 MMT to 19.5 MMT, as key farming areas remain dry. Even so, the October WASDE kept Argentinian production at 18 MMT, a 2.2 MMT bump from the year prior and a 42% increase from the 2022/23 drought.

Northern Hemisphere

In the Northern Hemisphere, harvest is complete and the 2024 crop is in the bin. However, recent dry conditions in Russia and the United States, along with a recent history of drought conditions, have begun to raise some concerns about potential planted area.

Following the drought in 2024/25 that cut Russian wheat production by 10% to 82.0 MMT, dryness lingers. SovEcon reported that poor weather in key growing regions has reduced Russian winter grains planting to 8.3 million hectares (20.5 million acres), down from 9.3 million hectares (22.9 million acres) last year, marking the lowest level since 2013. This reduction in planted area could negatively affect the 2025/26 harvest; however, it is too early to make definitive assessments. Furthermore, a forecast for rain may provide short-term relief across Russia.

Turning to the domestic front, dry conditions have dominated discussions; however, U.S. conditions remain much improved compared to the devastating drought from 2021 to 2023. As expected, the USDA Small Grains Summary put final 2024/25 U.S. wheat production at 53.6 MMT, a 9% increase year over year, on improved growing conditions. For all classes, yields sit at 51.2 bu/acre, the highest level since 2019, while hard red spring (HRS) yields came in at 52.5 bu/acre, the highest on record.

Table of U.S. wheat production by class over three years

The USDA Small Grains Summary put final 2024/25 U.S. wheat production at 53.6 MMT, a 9% increase year over year, on improved growing conditions. Source: USDA Small Grain Summary.

Planting Progress

Looking ahead, planting progress is on track with 64% of the crop planted; however, additional moisture will be necessary to promote emergence before dormancy. According to the USDA Drought Monitor, 47% of winter wheat regions are currently experiencing drought, a decrease from 49% last year and a substantial drop from the peak of 66% in 2022. Similarly, only 29% of spring wheat is in drought-affected areas, down from 51% last year and significantly lower than the peak of 98% in October 2021.

Image of deficit rainfall in the United States

According to the USDA Drought Monitor, 47% of winter wheat regions are currently experiencing drought, a decrease from 49% last year and a substantial drop from the peak of 66% in 2022. Only 29% of spring wheat is in drought-affected areas, down from 51% last year and significantly lower than the peak of 98% in October 2021. Source: National Drought Mitigation Center.

Despite the significant media coverage of drought and dryness, long-term effects have not yet been observed in current data. Production in Australia and Argentina remains steady and in line with long-term averages, while more insights are expected once harvest campaigns begin. Likewise, it is premature to draw any conclusions about the newly planted 2025/26 winter wheat crop. As farmers know all too well, only Mother Nature has the power to alter the narrative.

See the latest detailed World Supply and Demand information from U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) here.

By USW Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford

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The larger 2024 Pacific Northwest (PNW) soft white (SW) crop experienced more moisture and moderate temperatures, resulting in typical protein distribution, appropriately weak to medium gluten strength, and acceptable to good functionality. The high protein segment is a blending opportunity for crackers, Asian noodles, steamed breads, flat breads, and pan breads. The Club wheat subclass, with very weak gluten strength, is typically used in a Western White blend with SW for cakes and delicate pastries.

Kernels of soft white wheat used as flour in cakes, cookies and pastries on a white background.

From specialty products such as sponge cakes or Asian noodles to blending with HRS for improving bread color, U.S. soft white (SW) wheat flour has the versatility to improve the quality of a wide variety of products. It has a low protein of 8.5% to 10.5% (12% mb), low moisture and weak gluten. SW includes winter and spring varieties increasing the protein range and functionality within the class.

Growing Conditions

Ample moisture at seeding helped establish the winter SW crop with  winter moisture and mild temperatures supporting crop growth after dormancy and also supporting spring SW. Those conditions transitioned to a prolonged hot, dry period that stressed spring-seeded crops and accelerated maturity. Yields were average to above average with total 2024 PNW SW production reaching 6.7 million metric tons, 17% more than the 2023 crop.

2024 Highlights

  • Average grade for SW and Club is U.S. No. 1.
  • Test weight averages for SW trended higher this year with all protein composites above 60 lb/bu (78.9 kg/hl). Club test weight was comparable to last year.
  • Wheat protein (12% mb) is lower than last year but within a normal range for SW and Club.
  • Wheat falling number average is greater than 300 sec and comparable to 2023 and the 5-year average for SW and Club.
  • Buhler Laboratory Mill straight grade extractions, L* values (whiteness), and FLOUR ASH are similar to last year for SW. Club straight grade flour extraction and flour ash are down slightly this year with an L* value similar to last year. Damaged starch trended higher than last year for both SW and Club, due to slightly harder kernels. Flour extraction calculation has shifted from a total weight basis to a tempered weight basis and should not be compared to the 5-year average. Commercial mills should see better extractions.
  • Wet gluten contents for SW flour are lower this year compared to 2023 and the 5-year average. This likely reflects higher yields and mild temperatures.
  • Solvent Retention Capacity (SRC) lactic acid values for SW are in a normal range for weak to medium gluten strength. Water SRC values are up slightly compared to last year but are comparable to the 5-year average for SW. Overall, SW composites have SRC profiles suitable for good cookie and cracker performance. Lactic acid and water SRC values for Club are consistent with very weak gluten with low water holding capacity.

    The Rapid Visco Analyser is a tool that measures starch pasting quality for cakes, breads, batters, pasta and noodles.

    Rapid Visco Analyser

  • Starch pasting properties as shown by amylograph and RVA viscosities for SW and Club indicate the crop is suitable for batter-based products. The overall SW and Club averages are similar to last year’s and the 5-year average.
  • SW and Club show typical dough properties ranging from very weak to medium gluten strength and low water absorption values similar to their respective 2023 and 5-year averages.
  • Sponge cake volumes for SW are similar to 2023 and the 5-year average with softer textures than last year (lower hardness). Club sponge cake volume is slightly smaller than last year and the 5-year average with softer texture. Testers baked cakes with an experimentally milled straight grade flour. For comparison, control cakes baked at the same time from a commercially milled short patent cake flour have an average volume of 1132 cc and an average firmness of 273 g.
  • Average SW and Club cookie diameters and spread ratios are significantly larger than last year. These values should not be compared to the 5-year averages as the cookie method has changed as of 2023.
  • Average SW pan bread bake absorptions are in a normal range with specific loaf volumes and scores that trend with protein content and bake absorption. Blends of hard wheat with up to 20% SW should produce acceptable pan breads, especially at the higher end of the SW protein spectrum.
  • Chinese southern-type steamed bread specific volumes for SW and Club are similar to last year and larger than the 5-year average. Product appearance, especially external, was better than last year for both SW and Club.
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Continuous varietal improvement and improved growing conditions following a multiple year drought helped Central and Southern Plains farmers produce a more familiar, well-balanced hard red winter (HRW) wheat crop for 2024. A wider range of conditions in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) HRW crop encouraged higher yields with lower, but highly functional, protein levels. Both supplies meet or exceed typical HRW contract specifications and should provide high value to customers.

Hard red winter wheat kernels on a white background.

With excellent milling and baking characteristics for pan breads, hard rolls, croissants and flat breads, U.S. HRW is also an ideal choice for some types of Asian noodles, general purpose flour, and as an improver for blending. It has medium to high protein, medium hard endosperm, red bran, medium gluten content and mellow gluten.

U.S. farmers planted an estimated 24.1 million acres (9.8 million hectares) in fall 2023, marking a 4% increase over the previous year. USDA estimates total production of 21.0 MMT. That is up 28% from last year and contributed to the largest crop of all U.S. wheat classes in eight growing seasons. Here are the initial details and information about California’s HRW crop that USW will share with importing customers in the 2024 U.S. Wheat Crop Quality Report and Seminars. Plains Grains will offer even more local information soon.

2024 HRW Highlights

Average Grade for both the Gulf-exportable and PNW-exportable crops is U.S. No. 1 HRW. This indicates that both crops meet the highest quality standards for hard red winter wheat.

Test Weight for the Gulf-exportable crop is higher than last year and the 5-year average, indicating a sound crop. For the PNW-exportable crop, the test weight is significantly higher than last year, reflecting dense and heavy kernels.

Wheat Moisture levels for both the Gulf and PNW crops are lower than last year, which is a result of drier harvest conditions.

Wheat Protein (12% mb) content for the Gulf-exportable crop is lower compared to last year and the 5-year average, which is due to less stress and higher yields. The PNW-exportable crop also has slightly lower protein content compared to last year.

1000 Kernel Weight for the Gulf-exportable crop is lower than last year and the 5-year average, reflecting smaller kernels due to early season dryness. In contrast, the PNW-exportable crop has a higher 1000 kernel weight than last year and the 5-year average.

Kernel Characteristics: The Gulf-exportable crop has slightly smaller kernels due to early season dryness but higher test weights due to ideal conditions during grain filling. The PNW crop has slightly softer, heavier, and larger kernels compared to last year and the 5-year average.

Wheat Falling Number for the Gulf-exportable crop is notably higher than last year and the 5-year average, indicating a sound crop. For the PNW-exportable crop, the falling number is lower than last year and the 5-year average but still well above industry standards.

Tandem Laboratory Mill average for the Gulf-exportable crop is lower than last year, which should result in better extractions for commercial mills. The PNW-exportable crop also has a lower tandem laboratory mill average than last year, due to humidity levels and moisture loss at milling.

Image shows a laboratory worker viewing a computer screen with a graph from a farinograph test of wheat.

Farinograph Values for the Gulf-exportable crop indicate a similar peak time, slightly longer stability, and similar absorption compared to last year. The PNW-exportable crop has similar peak time, slightly shorter stability, and similar absorption compared to last year.

Extensograph Values for both the Gulf and PNW crops indicate similar or greater extensibility compared to last year, suggesting a more balanced gluten profile.

Dough Properties for both the Gulf and PNW crops demonstrate typical dough mixing properties and water absorptions with more balanced gluten properties that are adjustable with formula or blend modifications.

Loaf Volume and Bake Absorption values for both the Gulf and PNW crops are lower than previous high protein years but are appropriate for this year’s protein content.

California Report

The majority of California’s 2024 HRW crop has medium protein. Consistent with other years, the crop has low moisture, high flour extraction and strong baking performance — all of which make California wheat suitable for blending. The overall grade sample average for the 2024 HRW harvest survey is U.S. No. 1 HRW.