Wheat Letter Blog Archive - Page 19 of 104

Optimism Emerges for U.S. Hard Red Spring Wheat

As the 2023/24 marketing year begins, the market awaits the outlook for the new crop harvest. Despite early concerns anticipating wet conditions and late planting similar to the 2022 crop year, hard red spring (HRS) planting progress has surpassed expectations.

USDA NASS chart showing variable level of spring wheat planting as of June 1 for the years 2016 through 2022.

Though planting progress influences total production and yield, it is not predictive. Years with late planting can yield average crops, while rapid planting does not equate to good production potential. Factors such as soil moisture, weather, and disease pressure can significantly influence yield potential during crop development. Source: USDA NASS Data.

Rapid Planting Progress

Spring wheat farmers have made incredible planting progress after a historically snowy and cold winter delayed spring fieldwork in the Northern Plains. According to the USDA Crop Progress Report, as of June 4, 93% of the spring wheat was planted, up from 85% the week prior and even with the five-year average. In key HRS-producing states North Dakota, Montana, and Minnesota, USDA estimates plantings at 88%, 92%, and 98% complete, respectively. Over the last several weeks, rainfall has benefited soil moisture, and more recently, dry weather paired with above-normal temperatures helped accelerate planting progress. Between May 21 and May 28, 45% of the spring wheat crop was planted.

USDA NASS line graph showing spring wheat planting progress by week from 2018 through current 2023 date.

After a long winter with historic snowfall in the Northern Plains, 2023 planting (red dotted line) started late. As temperatures warmed rapidly, progress accelerated from several weeks behind to even with the five-year average. Source: USDA NASS Data.

A Hopeful Forecast

As spring wheat planting winds down, emergence hovers near the five-year average. As of June 4, spring wheat was 76% emerged, above the five-year average of 74%. The forecast predicts scattered showers for North Dakota, Minnesota, and Montana, a potential benefit to the newly planted HRS crop. Topsoil moisture in the top HRS producers remains good, with 72% boasting adequate to surplus moisture in North Dakota and 66% in Minnesota; meanwhile, drought removal is likely in much of Montana’s growing regions.

Map of precipitation in the United States the last week of May 2023 shows that wheat production regions including the Northern Plains have received sufficient rain to support planting progress and growth of the spring wheat crop.

Scattered showers have greatly benefited much of the U.S. wheat-growing regions, alleviating Montana’s drought and improving conditions in other key producing states. Source: USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin.

Looking Ahead

The current outlook for HRS remains positive, though continued optimism hinges upon the weather’s cooperation. Recent warm temperatures helped jumpstart planting and emergence, but additional moisture will be necessary to sustain the current confidence levels.

In addition to weather, the underlying impacts of the tight HRS balance sheet and lingering price volatility due to the war in Ukraine will continue to influence the market. As the 2023/24 marketing year continues additional information regarding the production outlook will become available.

To be released on July 12, the July Crop Production Report and the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates will include USDA’s first by-class wheat production estimates. Until then, you can stay updated with the latest crop conditions and harvest progress via the U.S. Wheat Associates weekly Harvest Report.

By USW Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford

June 7, 2023/by Steve Mercer

Video: USW Trade Policy Team, Partners Working to Secure U.S. Farmers’ Role in Feeding the World

U.S. wheat farmers have long played a major role in the fight against world hunger, which is why the U.S. Wheat Associates’ (USW) Trade Policy Team has been helping push for changes to the international food assistance programs under the 2023 Farm Bill. Among other things, proposed changes would reinstate the Food for Peace program’s original intent to allow U.S. farmers to share their harvest to fight global hunger. Changes would also halt the use of America taxpayer dollars to purchase food from competitors of U.S. agriculture. In the video below, USW Director of Trade Policy Peter Laudeman provides an overview of USW’s efforts . . .

June 6, 2023/by Ralph Loos

Educational Partnerships, Grain Science, Plant Breeding Innovation

USW Policy Team Engages Australian Industry on Collaboration Opportunities

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Director of Trade Policy Peter Laudeman recently returned from Australia, where he joined members of that country’s wheat and grain industries in discussions on plant breeding innovations and other issues ripe for collaboration.

Laudeman attended an international conference in Canberra focused on the research and regulatory landscape of gene-edited crops and implications for international trade.

“As we look to the future potential for gene editing to substantially benefit wheat production, it will be critical that our mutual exporting countries, and customer bases, enable trade in products derived from these technologies,” Laudeman said. “Similar to the U.S., many research efforts for gene editing in wheat are still early in their progress in Australia and will take some time to reach their full potential.”

While in Australia, USW Director of Trade Policy Peter Laudeman (right) pauses for a photo with Dr. Rohit Mago, Team Leader of the Plant Pathogen Interactions group at CSIRO. Among other things, Mago's team works on host resistance involving identification of new sources for rust resistance both for race-specific and adult plant resistance in wheat.

While in Australia, USW Director of Trade Policy Peter Laudeman (right) pauses for a photo with Dr. Rohit Mago, a Principal Research Scientist and Team Leader of the Plant Pathogen Interactions Group at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), an Australian government agency responsible for scientific research.

Laudeman pointed out that the U.S. has been one of the early global leaders in advancing updated biotechnology regulations to cover gene editing. From USW’s perspective, the hope is that the U.S. system will be a learning experience for the rest of the world in managing the pros and cons that have come out of our updated regulations.

In addition to gene editing, Laudeman also engaged the Australians on the potential for GMO wheat to come to the global market. Bioceres, the company seeking to champion their HB4 drought tolerant GMO wheat globally, has indicated that both the U.S. and Australia may be among the first global wheat exporters outside of Argentina to potentially work with the technology.

Outside of plant breeding innovations, there are additional collaboration opportunities with Australian industry when it comes to non-tariff barriers to trade. Historically, tariffs were the primary trade policy challenge for wheat exporting countries, but increasingly, non-tariff barriers have been the more substantial area of concern.

“These non-tariff barriers often impact exporters globally in similar ways,” Laudeman explained. “Being able to collaborate with another major global wheat exporter to ensure consistent, science-based trade is a major opportunity for USW to address longstanding barriers, such as China’s implementation of their wheat tariff-rate-quota (TRQ) system or Turkish flour dumping on the global market.”

Similarly, as sustainability continues to dominate conversations around the world, partnering with like-minded countries to ensure science-based access to essential technologies will be critical to pushing back against regulatory overreach that can effectively become a barrier to trade, Laudeman noted.

Laudeman was able to tour farms in Australia and learn about how farmers in the region approach planting and harvest seasons. He was also able to see how they are using new technologies in their fields.

“The USW policy team will continue to explore these collaboration opportunities to leverage global partnerships that drive more opportunities for U.S. wheat exports around the world,” he said.

June 2, 2023/by Ralph Loos

Wheat Industry News

News and Information from Around the Wheat Industry

Speaking of Wheat

“CBOT wheat futures reached the $14.2525 per bushel all-time high in March 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, turning Europe’s breadbasket and critical logistical hub at the Black Sea ports into war zones. While the battle for Ukraine continues to rage, CBOT wheat prices have steadily declined. [A] pattern of lower highs and lower lows that took the most liquid wheat futures to a $5.9550 low in May 2023. Wheat remains in a bearish trend, at just under the $6.10 level on May 22, but the price is higher than the level from August 2015 through September 2020. Wheat’s war premium has declined, but the price remains elevated.” – Barchart Analyst Andrew Hecht, May 22, 2023.

Fiber In; Keto Out?

Key issues impacting the grain-based foods industry are the popularity of fiber, an apparent decline in keto diets and sustainability concerns, according to the International Food Information Council’s 2023 Food and Health Survey released May 23. The IFIC survey involved 1,022 Americans of the ages 18 to 80 who were contacted April 3-10. When asked what dieting patterns they followed in the past year, 4% said ketogenic or high fat, which was down from 7% in last year’s survey. The percentage of consumers following gluten-free diets fell to 6% from 9% last year. Low-carb dieting remained the same at 6%. Read more here.

National Wheat Foundation Partners with My Plate

The National Wheat Foundation is pleased to join the USDA Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion as a USDA MyPlate National Strategic Partner. The partnership aims to enlighten individuals about the advantages of incorporating wheat into their dietary choices. At its core, MyPlate is a scientifically grounded initiative, crafted to impart knowledge on the merits of wholesome eating and encourage adjustments in our dietary habits that can yield significant long-term benefits. “We are looking forward to working with MyPlate as we help educate the benefits wheat can have in a person’s diet …,” said Bernard Peterson, Chairman of the National Wheat Foundation and a wheat farmer from Kentucky. Read more here.

India: Wheat Export Ban Stays Put

The Indian government has ruled out lifting a ban on wheat exports implemented one year ago as a measure to control rising domestic prices. Asked if wheat exports will be allowed, Consumer Affairs Secretary Rohit Kumar Singh said, ‘No chance at all.’ The government is supplying some quantity of wheat to a few countries like Nepal and Bhutan via a government-to-government trade arrangement. Citing reasons for continuing the export ban, Additional Secretary of the Food Ministry Subodh Kumar said India is not a traditional wheat exporting nation. However, the country exported wheat in the last three years owing to surplus supplies. Read more here.

U.S. Hard Red Spring Crop Planted?

Do not be surprised if the next USDA NASS weekly report shows most of the 2023 spring wheat crop is seeded. As of May 21, U.S. spring wheat planting progress was seen as 60% complete, up from 40% previously, with estimates ranging widely from 51% to 75% complete. However, with a warm, dry forecast over the next several days, farmers will make amazing progress. North Dakota Wheat Commission Policy and Marketing Director Jim Peterson told U.S. Wheat Associates on May 24 that farmers seeded fully half the total expected crop just last week.

A Tale of Two Crops in Colorado

Colorado Wheat Director of Communications and Policy Madison Andersen reported recently that a portion of eastern Colorado is now free of drought. The “excellent,” “good” and “fair” categories all gained points, however, so did the “very poor” category. She said she thinks this continues the tale of two crops reported in Colorado several times this year. There is wheat in the northeast corner that has the potential to make 70 bu/ac, while the abandonment rate in the southeast corner continues to rise, she added. The photo at the top of this page is from a northeast Colorado farm, courtesy of Dr. Phil Westra, Professor of Weed Science at Colorado State University.

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May 25, 2023/by Steve Mercer

Hard Red Winter, Market and Crop Analysis, Wheat Production and Harvest

USDA Reports Provides First Look Into 2023/24 Crop Year

On May 12, USDA released its initial estimates for the 2023/24 marketing year (MY) year, providing the first glimpse into how the world wheat situation has shifted in response to political instability, inflation, climate variability, and the volatility seen in the last year. This article will examine key takeaways from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and the USDA Crop Production Report, and what it may mean for the 2023/24 crop year.

Global Outlook: A Focus on Weather

Despite recording record wheat production of 789.7 MMT, up 1.5 MMT from 2022/23, world wheat supplies have tightened. Consumption surpasses production by 2.0 MMT for the fourth consecutive year, leading to a decline in global ending stocks. Projections indicate the lowest global ending stocks in eight years at 264.3 MMT. Ending stocks in the five non-Black Sea exporting countries (U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, and the EU) have hit their lowest level since 2007/08 at 38.2 MMT.

Production in major exporting countries is also forecast to be down 10.0 MMT to 367.6 MMT from a record 377.5 MMT in 2022/23. Production is predicted to increase in Argentina (+7.0 MMT), Canada (+3.2 MMT), and the EU (+4.7 MMT). However, these increases do not offset flat production in the U.S. (+0.3MMT) and reductions for Ukraine (-4.4 MMT), Russia (-10.5 MMT), and Australia (-10.0 MMT).

Weather poses risks to many production regions, including anticipated dryness in Australia associated with an El Niño weather event and reports of dryness in Canada. USDA predicts improved production in Argentina that hinges on recovery from the 2022/23 drought there. With ending stocks already hovering at 15-year lows, any change in production in major exporting countries could have a direct influence on world wheat prices.

A bar chart from the International Grains Commission (IGC) shows change in wheat production in major exporting countries by year over year and change compared to the 5-year average production.

2023/24 Major Exporter Production Change. With significant production reductions anticipated in Ukraine, Russia, and Australia, any change in the outlook for other major exporters will impact the already tight ending stocks held by exporters. Source: IGC.

U.S. Situation- Bullish Supply Meets Bearish Demand

Much like production in other major exporting countries, the weather has driven the U.S. wheat harvest conversation. As the drought in the U.S. Southern Plains persists, the May 12 USDA crop production figures put Kansas HRW production at 14.0 MMT, the lowest output since 1957/58. Similarly, USDA projections put Kansas (the largest HRW-producing state) wheat production at 181.0 million bushels. The annual Wheat Quality Council (WQC) winter wheat tour confirmed this outlook.

Despite the bullish outlook from the May Crop Production report and the subsequent futures rally, HRW futures prices declined, losing 73 cents in the week ending May 22. Likewise, hard red spring (HRS) and soft red winter (SRW) also softened, down 64 and 55 cents respectively from last week. A key factor contributing to this bearish trend is demand rationing in the face of high prices and seasonal pressures.

Bar chart showing U.S. wheat export sales by class, year-to-date as of May 11, 2023. HRW sales are significantly lower than 2021 at this date.

U.S. HRW commitments as of May 11, 2023, are 32% behind last year’s pace at 5.1 MMT. Meanwhile, HRS sales are up 4% at 5.7 MMT, white wheat is up 39% at 4.7 MMT, SRW is up 1% at 2.9 MMT, and durum has increased 131% to 452,000 MT. Source: USW Commercial Sales Report.

Bright Spots

Despite the complexity of the HRW situation, the outlook for other U.S. wheat classes, especially soft wheat classes, remains optimistic. The Crop Production Report put SRW estimates at 11.0 MMT, a 21% increase from 2022/23, and prices for SW and SRW continue to trend lower to remain competitive with other origins. Likewise, as of the May 21 Crop Progress Report, the winter wheat conditions have begun to see improvement, with a season-high of 31% ranking good to excellent. Spring wheat farmers have also made tremendous planting progress, with a 24% increase in plantings over the week, reaching 64% planted, only 9% behind the five-year average, alleviating concerns about late planting.

A More Detailed Look to Come

In the coming weeks I will recap the 2022/23 U.S. wheat export trends and highlight what to watch as new crop sales increase. In June, USDA will begin revising its initial estimates for the 2023/24 world supply and demand and the July WASDE will provide the first by-class wheat projections for the 2023/24 crop year.

May 24, 2023/by Steve Mercer

Taiwan, Wheat Foods

‘Super-aged’ Societies Are Emerging – USW’s Focus is on Developing Wheat Foods That Meet Demands

A professional chef demonstrates methods for using U.S. wheat to make handmade noodles during a Wheat Food workshop for volunteers in Taipei’s adult long-term care community. The October 2022 workshop was part of USW's ongoing effort to develop new wheat food options for Taiwan's aging populations.

A professional chef demonstrates methods for using U.S. wheat to make handmade noodles during a Wheat Foods workshop for volunteers in Taipei’s adult long-term care community. The October 2022 workshop was part of USW’s ongoing effort to develop new wheat food options for Taiwan’s aging populations.

While innovating new products for members of the youthful “Snackification Generation,” U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) has simultaneously been working to develop and promote specialty wheat foods designed for Earth’s more experienced generation.

The world’s older folks if you will.

A catchy nickname has yet to attach to the fast-growing group of consumers over 65, but tags like “Snacking Seniors” and “Aging Appetizers” miss the mark. That’s because instead of crackers, cookies and biscuits, new variances of noodles and breads and pastries are at center of USW’s efforts to grow demand for U.S. wheat in markets with aging populations.

“Super-aged” is the buzzword being used by the media, and a common prediction is that by 2030 there will be at least 30 countries where more than 20% of the population is over 65 – the ratio that has been set to define a super-aged country. Already, “There are more people on the planet over the age of 65 than ever before in human history,” the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine recently reported, adding that, “Globally, the population aged 65 and over is growing faster than all other age groups.”

Recognizing opportunities to promote U.S. wheat in super-aged markets – notably its protein, B-vitamins, dietary fiber, and other nutritional benefits – USW has been engaging consumers to learn about preferences and learn what kind of products have a place in their diets and on their menus.

As it turns out, flour made with high-quality U.S. wheat has no age restrictions.

Asia: Super-sized, Super-aged

USW offices in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have for years been preparing for expansion of aging populations. And for good reason. Nearly 30% of Japan’s population is over 65. and Taiwan (18%) and South Korea (17%) follow, both expecting to see those percentages rise dramatically in coming years.

Expected to become a super-aged society by 2025, Taiwan is a loyal customer of U.S. wheat, with a market share that has ranged from 70% to 80%.USW staff in the country has been aggressive about positioning U.S. wheat in the diet of senior citizens.

“The Taiwan Government noticed the trend and has made great efforts to help develop healthy foods for the elderly in the country, explained USW Taiwan Country Director Bo Yuan Chen. “However, most efforts had been in rice products. USW’s Taipei Office noticed the lack of wheat products for the elderly in Taiwan, so we launched a program to assist flour and wheat foods industries to develop more wheat products suitable for the elderly.”

Maintaining U.S. market share requires growing the level of wheat food consumption by older consumers, Chen said, adding. “To do this, USW has been working with flour millers, universities and wheat food manufacturer associations to conduct studies, provide technical support and facilitate product development for older consumers, the goal being putting more wheat-based products aimed at the needs of the elderly on food store shelves.”

Pan breads, soft European breads and noodles are the promising foods that U.S. wheat is working to promote to maintain demand by Taiwan’s coming super-aged society.

“U.S. wheat’s strength is in bread products, so that is where we are now focusing,” said Chen.

Workshops conducted by USW in Taiwan have included sharing methods of cooking and baking wheat products that fit desires of the country's aging populations.

Workshops conducted by USW in Taiwan last year included trainings and the sharing of methods of cooking and baking wheat products that fit desires and needs of the country’s fast-aging population. USW is continuing its work in this area in 2023.

Asking Older Consumers What They Want

One major step taken by USW was to survey older Taiwanese consumers to determine preferences in wheat foods and what situations best motivated consumption of wheat foods.

Following the surveys, USW conducted outreach activities to further explore trends.

In October 2022, USW collaborated with Taiwan’s Department of Food and Beverage Management of Shih Chien University (USC) to conduct two Chinese Wheat Food workshops for an audience that included volunteers in Taipei’s adult long-term care community. A professional chef demonstrated methods for using U.S. wheat to make handmade noodles, pan-fried stuffed buns, silk thread rolls, sweet potato pastry, steamed bread, steamed stuffed buns and steamed twisted rolls.

The USW survey had indicated that older Taiwanese consumers favored wheat foods that “cut down on cooking time” or featured “no cooking” – thus, the pan-fried and steamed items.

A previous survey by USC found that more than 60% of Taiwanese over the age of 65 are dissatisfied with the Chinese-style wheat foods sold in the country.

“These workshops showed the participants how to make their own healthy and nutritious Chinese-style wheat products using U.S. wheat whole wheat flour,” USW Technical Specialist Wei-lin Chou noted. “It was a success, and we learned that volunteers from a long-term care community that participated in our workshop made those pan-fried stuffed buns for their elderly residents immediately following our workshop.”

In a separate workshop in October 2022, USW collaborated with the Department of Nutritional Science of Fu Jen Catholic University (FJCU) and Viva Bakery to conduct a healthy and sustainable bread development and promotion program. FJCU and a cooperating bakery applied 100% U.S. wheat flours and Taiwan local ingredients to make bread products.

Previous USW efforts in Taiwan included partnering with the China Grain Products Research and Development Institute (CGPRDI) to conduct research and corresponding workshops on topics such as, Taiwan Commercial Noodles Characteristics, Wheat Flour for Elders’ Noodles, Bakery Products Development for Elders and Steamed Bread Flour and Products.

A group photo at a workshop in Taiwan conducted in October 2022 by USW, the Department of Nutritional Science of Fu Jen Catholic University (FJCU) and Viva Bakery. The purpose of the workshop was to establish a healthy and sustainable bread development and promotion program.

A group photo at a workshop in Taiwan conducted by USW, the Department of Nutritional Science of Fu Jen Catholic University (FJCU) and Viva Bakery. The purpose of the workshop was to establish a healthy and sustainable bread development and promotion program.

A Solid Partner

A reliable customer of U.S. hard red spring (HRS) wheat, hard red winter (HRW) wheat and soft white (SW) wheat, Taiwan is the 6th largest U.S. wheat export market and the 7th largest overseas market for U.S. agricultural products.

A special relationship has been built between U.S. wheat farmers and their Taiwanese customers.

“American farmers place great value on the relationship between U.S. agriculture and Taiwan,” USW Vice Chairman Michael Peters, who grows wheat in Oklahoma, said during a ceremony last fall in Washington D.C. in which the Taiwan Flour Millers Association (TFMA) signed a Letter of Intent to purchase 1.9 million metric tons of U.S. wheat in 2023 and 2024. “We pride ourselves as being dependable partners who grow the highest quality agriculture products in the world. The TFMA and its members have been great trading partners who fully recognize the value of purchasing U.S. wheat.”

Still, there is competition.

U.S. wheat competes against the ample and less-expensive supply of Australian wheat, which helps meet Taiwan’s robust demand for noodle flour. A consistent supply of U.S. hard white (HW) wheat is seen as a potential alternative – and a way for U.S. wheat to maintain and grow its share.

Each Asian Market is Different

Are there things to be learned from USW efforts in Japan and Korea to create demand for foods made with U.S. wheat in Japan or Korea?

“There are certainly common things we can share with flour millers and bakers about the quality of U.S. wheat, and the quality of the foods made with U.S. wheat,” said Chen. “But I think every country has its own different situation. We can learn from each other, but we also need to work hard to develop programs suitable for consumers in our own countries.”

May 22, 2023/by Ralph Loos

USW Weekly Harvest Report Returns for 2023 Season

Combines have been making rounds in parts of Texas – and combines in other states will do the same as spring becomes summer and summer becomes fall.

The 2023 U.S. wheat harvest season has arrived.

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) started publishing its weekly harvest report for marketing year 2023/24 on Friday, May 19, 2023. USW Harvest Reports are published every Friday afternoon throughout the season with updates and comments on harvest progress, crop conditions and current crop quality for hard red winter (HRW), soft red winter (SRW), hard red spring (HRS), soft white (SW) and durum wheat.

While U.S. farmers like to use it as a tool to monitor the crop and harvest progress around the country, the weekly Harvest Report is also a key component of USW’s international technical and marketing programs. It is a resource that helps customers understand how the crop situation may affect basis values and export prices. USW’s overseas offices share the report with their market contacts and use it as a key resource in meetings and for answering inquiries. Several USW offices publish the report in the local language.

Anyone may subscribe to receive the Harvest Report directly to their email inbox by filling out a quick form found at this link.

USW includes links in the email to additional wheat condition and grading information, including the U.S. Drought Monitor, USDA/NASS Crop Progress and National Wheat Statistics, the official FGIS wheat grade standards, and USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Harvest Reports are also posted online on the USW website here.

Additional links to the Harvest Report are available on USW’s Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn pages, where we also share harvest photos throughout the week.

May 19, 2023/by Ralph Loos

Market and Crop Analysis, Wheat Quality, Wheattour23

2023 Wheat Tour Sees Short Crop; Black Sea Grain Deal Prevents Rally

As expected, the results of the 2023 Hard Winter Wheat Tour the week of May 15 confirmed the extremely short wheat crop in Kansas and surrounding states. Typically, the market reaction would be bullish. But 2023 is not a typical year, and the volatile uncertainty of the Black Sea conflict once again overshadowed basic supply and demand factors.

After following six routes throughout central and western Kansas, far southern Nebraska and far northern Oklahoma, for three days, the average calculated yield average for fields that will be harvested was 30 bushels per acre (bu/a). Kansas Wheat reported that the official tour projection for total wheat production in Kansas is 178 million bushels (4.85 million metric tons) compared to the 5-year average of 303 million bushels.

In spite of that bullish news, the latest extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative pushed markets down. From May 15 through the end of the tour May 18, the HRW July futures contract lost $0.41. July hard red spring futures lost $0.45 and July soft red winter was down $0.49.

Reuters Photo showing farmer Gary Millershaski examining a stand of drought-stressed wheat during the 2023 Wheat Quality Council 2023 Hard Winter Wheat Tour.

Gary Millershaski, a farmer and scout on the Wheat Quality Council’s Kansas wheat tour, inspects winter wheat stunted by drought near Syracuse, Kan. Photo Copyright Reuters.

People Wanted to See This Crop

The annual Wheat Quality Council (WQC) winter wheat tour always attracts the market’s attention, this year even more so. More than 100 hard red winter wheat crop stakeholders participated, up from about 80 “scouts” in 2022, perhaps to see for themselves just how bad the crop is in the country’s leading hard red winter (HRW) wheat producing state.

“There’s just a general increase in interest this year,” WQC Executive Director Dave Green said to Progressive Farmer/DTN before the tour. “A lot of the big [milling and wheat food] companies want to have people on the ground and not just hear about it from someone else. People want to see this crop.”

Based on May 1 data, USDA estimated total 2023 U.S. HRW production at its lowest level since 1957/58. That includes USDA’s estimated average of 29 bu/a in Kansas. In fact, the wheat tour estimated average yield at 29.8 bu/a on Day 1 and 27.5 bu/a on Day 2 in the hard-hit western region.

Abandonment X-Factor

Wheat tour scouts were instructed to only calculate yield estimates for fields that have the potential to be harvested for grain, and not to calculate yields for abandoned fields. Kansas Wheat CEO Justin Gilpin noted that the 178 million bushel Kansas production estimate is a compilation from field evaluations throughout all 3 days on the tour, individual estimates of abandonment, and potential from this point until harvest. Estimates from scout estimates are pooled and averaged and that is the final production number that the WQC Tour issues at the end of the tour.

USDA NASS on May one estimated Kansas wheat production at 181 million bushels in its May Wheat Outlook. Assessing abandonment, it pegged the harvested-to-planted ratios for Kansas at 81% compared to a long-term average of 93%. Including Oklahoma at 47% (with an average yield potential of 23 bu/a), Texas at 30%, and Colorado at 73%, all are historically low.

Kansas Wheat pointed out that the wheat tour captures a moment in time for fields across the state that are still 3 to 6 weeks from harvest. The WQC coordinates this effort by breeders, producers, and processors to improve wheat and flour quality. The primary goals of the tour are to make connections within the wheat industry, allow participants to meet wheat farmers and see the growing crop, and to highlight the agriculture industry.

Photo at the top of this page from Twitter shows a field near Haven, Kan., with an estimated yield potential of 10 b/ac. Photo Copyright, Corbin Catt/Catt & Crew Farms. See more photos and other information by searching #wheattour23.

May 18, 2023/by Steve Mercer

Video: Wheat Farmers Interact with Loyal Customers as USW Celebrates 50th Anniversary of South Korea Office

Wheat farmers from Idaho, Oklahoma and Oregon took part in a May 15 celebration that marked the 50th anniversary of U.S. Wheat Associates’ (USW) South Korea office. The farmers joined USW staff in Seoul to host a luncheon for Korean bakers, flour millers, traders and other industry leaders. Read a story on the event here.

A short video from the anniversary celebration can be seen below.

May 18, 2023/by Ralph Loos

Foreign Agricultural Service, Korea, Marketing and Trade Conferences, Seoul, USW Announcements

Celebrating a Golden Anniversary of Wheat Promotion in South Korea

The U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Seoul, South Korea, office commemorated its 50^th year of service May 15, 2023, with honored guests from the flour milling, baking, and logistics industries, U.S. government officials, U.S. wheat farmer leaders and colleagues.

Speakers during the event focused on the remarkable growth of the South Korean wheat foods supply system as well as the “ironclad” industrial and national partnership with the United States and USW.

Celebrating the Partnership

USW Country Director Dong-Chan (Channy) Bae kicked off the anniversary program by noting USW’s long-term commitment to helping the South Korean milling and baking industry advance and grow. He affirmed the success of the partnership, saying “If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together – and together we have accomplished much.”

In his remarks, USW President Vince Peterson first looked back at the U.S.-South Korea wheat industry relationship. Referencing a 1984 article, Peterson said the author called out South Korea’s growth in U.S. wheat imports as an example of the very successful economic and security linkage between our two countries.

He said South Korea’s first commercial purchase of U.S. wheat in 1972 (following many years of donations under the PL-480 Food for Peace program) created the opportunity to open a U.S. wheat promotion office and more.

Since then, the South Korean milling and baking industry has seen “astounding growth until today when you import an average of 1.4 million metric tons of U.S. wheat and now export ramen products valued at more than $750 million,” Peterson said. “We thank you all and want you to know we remain dedicated to the partnership that helped fuel that growth.”

Chairman Won-Ki Ryu represented the Korea Flour Mills Industrial Association (KOFMIA) and said members of the organization greatly valued the relationship with U.S. farmers and USW.

“Together we have made major accomplishments that have significantly contributed to the advancement of flour milling in our country,” he said.

Executives from the South Korean flour milling and baking industries, USDA FAS, and USW cut a ceremonial cake celebrating the 50th anniversary of USW's Seoul office.

USW and representatives from Korea’s flour milling and baking industries, and USDA FAS cut a commemorative cake made with U.S. wheat flour by the Korean Baking School to celebrate the 50th anniversary of USW’s office in Seoul, South Korea. Left to Right: Channy Bae, USW Country Director; Darren Padget, USW Past Chairman; In Seok Song, CEO Daehan Flour Mills Co., Ltd.; Won-Ki Ryu, Chairman, KOFMIA; Vince Peterson, USW President; Mark Dries, Ag Minister Counselor, USDA-FAS; Michael Peters, USW Vice Chairman.

A Flagship Commodity

Mark Dries, Agricultural Minister Counselor, with USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, offered heartfelt congratulations to USW on its anniversary. He said milling wheat is now the fifth largest U.S. commodity imported by South Korea.

“We are very pleased to help celebrate this accomplishment. Wheat is one of the flagship export products to South Korea and has helped fuel the amazing innovations we see in bakery products here,” Dries said.

USW was fortunate to have three of its wheat farmer leaders participate in the event in Seoul: Past Chairman Darren Padget of Grass Valley, Oregon; Vice Chairman Michael Peters of Okarche, Oklahoma; and Secretary-Treasurer Clark Hamilton of Ririe, Idaho.

USW Vice President of Overseas Operations Mike Spier also provided an overview of the global and U.S. wheat supply and demand situation. He showed that the now four-year downward trend in ending stocks will likely support world and U.S. wheat prices. He said while U.S. hard red winter wheat supplies will remain tight, the potential for more normal soft white and hard red spring (DNS) wheat crops for 2023 is good. At the same time, Spier said to expect continued volatility given the uncertainty of the Black Sea situation.

Thanks to Colleagues

USW wants to recognize the dedicated work of its Seoul-based colleagues Channy Bae, Country Director, Shin-Hak (David) Oh, Food & Bakery Technologist, and Jin Young Lee, Marketing and Program Coordinator. USW was also pleased that Dr. Won Bang Koh, who served as Country Director for more than 30 years, was able to participate in this special anniversary celebration.

May 15, 2023/by Steve Mercer