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Building a kernel photo library with new and updated images from each of the six classes of U.S. wheat requires the single steady hand of a skilled photographer.

And hundreds of hands of support from everyone else.

The wheat kernel photo library project, which U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) began planning earlier this year, took a major leap forward in June, when the Department of Plant Sciences at North Dakota State University hosted a photo crew from Middle, USW’s creative agency in Manhattan, Kansas. Over two days, a Middle photographer captured images of a dozen different varieties of U.S. wheat – the six classes and several subclasses – from fields across the country.

Therein lies the referenced “hundreds of hands of support” – wheat kernels photographed for the USW project were sent to the NDSU campus in boxes and buckets from Idaho, Kansas, Maryland, Ohio, Oregon, Texas and, of course, North Dakota.

Clair Keene, an Assistant Professor and Agronomist at North Dakota State University, and North Dakota Wheat Commission Policy and Marketing Director Jim Peterson watch as a photographer captures images as part of the kernel photography project.

Clair Keene, an Assistant Professor and Agronomist at North Dakota State University, and North Dakota Wheat Commission Policy and Marketing Director Jim Peterson watch as a photographer captures images as part of the photography project. NDSU hosted the photo shoot to build the new library of wheat kernel images.

Photos in the wheat kernel photo library project include magnified up-close shots of individual kernels, as well as cross-cut shots that show an internal view of the kernel. There are photos of small piles of the grains that depict uniformity and color.

The library is still “under construction,” but once it is complete, photos will be used across USW departments for a variety of projects. Having access to clear and accurate kernel images allows USW to educate and inform both internal and external audiences, explained USW Vice President of Programs Erica Oakley.

“There are many important uses for these images – everything from our Crop Quality programs to presentations our staff and partners give around the world to buyers and potential buyers of U.S. wheat,” explained Oakley. “We really appreciate the people at North Dakota State University for hosting this project, and we must thank producers and state wheat associations for sharing samples of their wheat to photograph. It’s a worthwhile project that will benefit us all.”

 

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U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford and Director of Communications Ralph Loos participated in an event organized by the Northern Crops Institute (NCI) that helps both U.S. producers and international customers better understand logistics required to move wheat and other commodities. The Minneapolis Port Tour, which included stops at CHS facilities and a BNSF Intermodal Yard – as well as a ride on the Mississippi River – took place immediately following the USW 2023 Summer Board Meeting in the Twin Cities. Farmers and state wheat association staffers from Oklahoma, Minnesota, Montana and Washington took part. Scenes from the two-day tour can be seen in this video . . .

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News and Information from Around the Wheat Industry

Speaking of Wheat

The international [grain] price in Ukraine will be on the level of the cost of production. Harvested grains and oilseeds will be level of 62 million (tonnes), exports about 40 million. We have only three seaports operating at capacity and [under the ‘fragile agreement’ to ship grains and other commodities via the Black Sea] Russia uses every possibility… to complicate these exports. [Ukraine’s] intention is to ensure freedom of navigation to and from Ukrainian seaports.” — Taras Kachka, deputy minister for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine, Trade Representative of Ukraine, from an article about the 2023 International Grains Council Conference by Chris Lyddon, World Grain.com. Read more here.

Russian Government Seeks Wheat Export Control

Bloomberg included an article June 29 suggesting “The Kremlin” is looking to exert greater control of Russian wheat production and trade. Reporter Aine Quinn wrote: “Russia’s growing market power is part of a broader effort. International traders such as Cargill Inc., left after facing pressure to clear the way for domestic companies. The changes put more control in domestic hands and could potentially make it easier for local companies to ship grains grown in occupied Ukrainian territory — and for Moscow to influence prices.” The article also suggested more government control of wheat would help it keep “the Global South on their side.” Read the article here.

Challenge from China on Black Sea Deal?

Agri-Pulse trade reporter Bill Tomson reported this week that China’s deputy permanent representative to the United Nations has stated that the Black Sea Grain Initiative needs to be renewed this month. The article indicates that China is most concerned about supplies of corn to feed its massive swine herd according to Collin Watters, director of exports and logistics for the Illinois Corn Marketing Board. Read more about the politics of war and grain here. Russian officials on July 5 said a final decision on whether to extend the grain deal has not been made.

National Wheat Foundation Tour for Government Staff

On June 27, 2023, the National Wheat Foundation and Maryland wheat grower Eric Spates, hosted a wheat farm tour for congressional staff and USDA employees. The attendees had the opportunity to explore the farm, witness the wheat harvesting process, and listen to speakers who specialize in the agriculture industry. The discussions centered around crucial topics such as risk management, conservation, pesticide programs, and environmental issues. Read more about the tour here.

Welcoming New NAWG Government Relations Representative

The National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) has hired Jack Long as the new Government Relations Representative. Long is a recent graduate from Oklahoma State University, where he received a Master’s in Agribusiness. Long is originally from Cole Camp, MO, and comes from a multigenerational farming operation. He has worked for Cornerstone Government Affairs and the Oklahoma State Senate, which provided him with a fundamental understanding of policy and current issues within the wheat industry. Read more here.

Communications Job in Montana

The state of Montana is accepting applications for the position of Marketing & Communications Director with the Montana Wheat and Barley Committee (MWBC), a state wheat commission member of U.S. Wheat Associates (USW). This position is responsible for managing marketing and outreach activities, content development and communications efforts for the MWBC. Primary obligations include planning and implementation of domestic marketing and international trade efforts aimed at increasing purchases of Montana grown wheat and barley. Read more or to apply, visit Montana’s government website here.

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.

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The June USDA reports on Acreage and Stocks, released on June 30, 2023, made a significant splash on grain markets after an already volatile week. With no new fundamentals to trade, wheat prices found little insulation from movements in corn and soybean markets. From June 21 to June 30, Chicago Board of Trade corn futures were down $1.14 on the week and CBOT Soft Red Winter wheat (SRW) futures were down $1.06. Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Kansas City Board of Trade (KBOT) Hard Red Winter (HRW) futures dropped 63 cents and 75 cents, respectively.

Before Friday’s USDA reports, dryness in the U.S. Midwest, particularly in the Corn Belt, wreaked havoc on wheat and corn markets as corn conditions hovered at their lowest rating since 1988. Meanwhile, instability in wheat markets persists with on-going news from the conflict in the Black Sea.

June Acreage Report

The Acreage Report estimated the total U.S. wheat planted area at 49.6 million acres (ma) or 20.1 million hectares (mh), up 9% from 2022 but 300,000 acres less than the March estimates. The 2023/24 planted area still represents the largest planted area since 2016/17. Little changed from the March estimates with the winter wheat area projected at 37.0 ma (14.9 mh), up 11% from last year. The most significant increase occurred in the SRW wheat area as it registered a 17% increase from the year prior.

As discussed in previous articles, high prices in the fall of 2022 incentivized farmers to plant additional acres, and the USDA reports confirms that shift. New to the June report, the HRS area was forecast at 10.5 ma (4.2 mh), which is up 5% from the March estimates and 5% from 2022. Meanwhile, durum is predicted at 1.48 ma (0.6 mh), down 200,000 acres from the March estimates and 9% below 2022/23.

More Corn Than Expected

 

Statistics from USDA shows the volume of corn planted and harvested in the United States and the large increase in 2023.

U.S. corn planted area is expected to take an unusually large jump in 2023 according to a new report from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

Corn and soybeans were arguably the largest surprise and the most significant contributor to Friday’s volatility. USDA forecast corn area at 94.1 ma (38.1 mh), which would be the third highest area on record, and is up from 88.6 ma (35.9 mh). The USDA NASS map at the top of this page shows an estimate of how many acres of corn are planted in each state and the percentage change from 2022. Soybean area was down 5% on the year and below trade estimates, coming in at 83.5 ma (33.8 mh).

The USDA estimates for the soybean area were nearly 5.0 MMT below the average trade estimates, sending a shockwave through commodity markets. The market reacts relative to how much the estimates deviate from the trade expectations. Source: Acreage, Grain Stocks, and Rice Stocks – Agricultural Statistics Board Briefing.

The impact of the USDA Acreage report released June 30 was bullish for soybeans, bearish for corn, and varied for wheat. That day, July 2023 CBOT SRW futures closed down 97 cents on the week at $6.36/bu. KCBT HRW futures were down 58 cents, at $8.01/bu. MGEX HRS futures were down 63 cents at $8.02/bu. CBOT corn futures were down 76 cents at $5.55/bu. CBOT soybean futures were up 63 cents, at $15.57/bu.

Quarterly Grains Stocks Report

The June Grain Stocks Report, published on June 30, USDA estimates that old crop wheat stocks are down 17% from 2022 at 15.8 MMT. On-farm stocks are 3.4 MMT, up 34% from 2022 but 22% below the five-year average. The larger on-farm stocks indicate that farmers hold a larger share of the wheat crop than years prior. Meanwhile, off-farm wheat stocks are down 25% at 12.4 MMT.

Key Takeaways

The week’s volatility and the impact of the reports demonstrate persistent risks in the current wheat market and the ever-present influence of the weather. As the crop year progresses, it is crucial to keep a watchful eye on corn and soybean markets, as fundamentals in these markets can have consequences on the wheat market. Likewise, as the harvest pace ramps up and more information about the new crop becomes available, markets will begin to price in the availability of the supply, anticipated demand, and quality of the year’s crop.

Line chart from USDA reports show the relationships between U.S. wheat, corn, and soybeans planted area over time.

USDA forecast corn area at 94.1 ma (38.1 mh), the third highest area on record, while the soybean area was down 5% on the year and below trade estimates, coming in at 83.5 ma (33.8 mh). The soybean area declined for the first time in three years. Corn and soybeans compete directly for space, so the sharp increase in corn plantings cut into the soybean area. Source: USDA Grains Stocks Report.

Stay current on the 2023 wheat harvest via the U.S. Wheat Associates Harvest Reports and market moving factors in the weekly Price Report.

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At their annual meeting the week of July 10 in Minneapolis, Minn., the Board of Directors of U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) will install North Dakota farmer Jim Pellman as 2023/24 Secretary-Treasurer. Pellman was elected to that position in February 2023.

“After serving as a director on the U.S. Wheat Associates board representing North Dakota, I believe in the mission of the organization,” Pellman said after his election. “This is an ideal time for me to put my experience to work for wheat farmers beyond my county and state. I am looking forward to doing what I can to help the organization continue building export demand in a very competitive global market.”

In the photo above, left to right, Pellman will join Clark Hamilton, Ririe, Idaho, Vice Chair, Rhonda Larson, East Grand Forks, Minn., Past Chair, and Michael Peters, Okarche, Okla., Chair, as USW 2023/24 officers.

Banker and Farmer

Pellman and his wife, Candace, have two children and grow wheat, barley, canola, corn, and soybeans on the farm they started in 1990 near McClusky, N.D. After earning a degree in Agricultural Economics from North Dakota State University, Pellman started his ag lending career with FMHA before moving to a community bank, where he spent 25 years.

He served as Chief and on the board of his community’s volunteer fire department and as chair of a local non-profit housing organization. Pellman is serving his second, four-year term on the North Dakota Wheat Commission (NDWC) and has represented Sheridan County since 2014. Pellman is NDWC vice-chairman and is liaison on transportation issues and the North Dakota Rail Council, as a representative to the North Dakota Grain Growers Association, and a voting member of the SBARE Wheat Granting Committee.

Hear more from Jim Pellman in the short video posted below.

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In this article, originally published during U.S. Wheat Associates’ 40th anniversary in 2020, Wheat Letter describes the highly successful public-private partnership supporting U.S. wheat export market development that has endured since the 1950s.


The proper role of government…is that of partner with the farmer – never his master. By every possible means we must develop and promote that partnership – to the end that agriculture may continue to be a sound, enduring foundation for our economy and that farm living may be a profitable and satisfying experience. President Dwight D. Eisenhower, from a message to Congress on agriculture, Jan. 9, 1956.

In 2020, Wheat Letter offered historical perspective on how changes in federal programs, global market factors and relationships drew Western Wheat Associates and Great Plains Wheat Market Development Association ever closer together and led to the establishment of U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) as a single export market development organization to serve all U.S. wheat farmers.

A formal agreement between the Nebraska Wheat Commission and USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) to co-fund and implement export market development activities in 1958 marked the beginning of an enduring partnership between farmers, state wheat commissions, FAS and USW after the merger in 1980.

“I consider this to be one of the most successful partnerships between a U.S. government agency and private industry,” said USW President Vince Peterson. “Each partner brings unique core capabilities that support the export development mission. Our activities are jointly planned, funded and evaluated. We all share the risks, responsibilities and results.”

It Starts with the Farmer

State wheat commissions exist under state law generally to conduct promotion and market development through research, education and information. Commissions are funded by assessments paid by the farmer either by bushel or by a portion of the price at the time of sale. This is called a “checkoff” and though it is voluntary, a strong majority of farmers contribute their assessment. Farmer commissioners, either elected by their peers or appointed by their state’s governor, direct how the checkoff funds are to be used, such as for domestic promotion, public crop production research and variety development and export market development.

In 2017, Ralph Bean, who was then Agricultural Counselor, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Embassy Manila (far right), met with farmers from South Dakota, North Dakota and Montana during their USW Board Team visit to South Asia . The farmers were guests of honor at the 9th International Exhibition on Bakery, Confectionary and Foodservice Equipment and Supplies, known as “Bakery Fair 2017,” hosted by the Filipino-Chinese Bakery Association Inc.

By agreeing to contribute a portion of checkoff funds to USW for export market development, state wheat commissions choose to become members of USW. The annual USW membership assessment is about $0.004 per bushel, multiplied by the average production in the state over the past five years. Currently 17 state wheat commissions are USW members.

The contributions from state wheat commissions, including special project funds as well as the personal time and talent invested by farmers and U.S. wheat supply chain participants, supports the USW mission to develop, maintain and expand international markets to enhance wheat’s profitability for U.S. wheat producers and its value for their customers. In addition, state commission contributions qualify USW to apply for federal export market development funds administered by FAS.

Linking U.S. Agriculture to the World

USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service has primary responsibility for overseas programs including market development, international trade agreements and negotiations, and the collection of statistics and market information. It also administers the USDA’s export credit guarantee and food aid programs and helps increase income and food availability in developing nations by mobilizing expertise for agriculturally led economic growth. The FAS mission is to link U.S. agriculture to the world to enhance export opportunities and global food security.

Jim Higgiston (left), who was then USDA/FAS Minister Counselor for Agricultural Affairs, met with Regional Director Chad Weigand (right) and farmer members of a USW Board Team in September 2018 in the capital city of Pretoria, South Africa. The FAS team in Pretoria included Kyle Bonsu, Agricultural Attache, Laura Geller, Senior Agricultural Attache, and Dirk Esterhuizen, Senior Agricultural Specialist.

FAS export market development programs available to USW as a cooperating organization include the Market Access Program (MAP), the Foreign Market Development (FMD) program, the Agricultural Trade Promotion program and the Quality Samples Program. USW is required to conduct an extensive, annual strategic planning process that carefully examines every market, identifying opportunities for export growth and recognizing trends or policies that could threaten existing or prospective markets. FAS reviews this annual plan, the Unified Export Strategy (UES), results from previous years and private commitments to determine how USW will invest program funds. In 2022/23, federal funding provided $2.20 for every $1.00 contributed by farmers through their state wheat commissions.

“It is important that [overseas] buyers and government officials develop direct personal relationships not only with us at USDA but also directly with American farmers and ranchers,” said former USDA Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Ted McKinney in testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry in June 2019.

In 2017, Jeffery Albanese (pictured back row with hat), who was then Agricultural Attaché, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Embassy Manila, joined aUSW Board Team, with farmers from South Dakota, North Dakota and Montana, and USW staff,  for a tour of San Miguel Mill, Inc. in the Philippines.

USDA in general and FAS specifically foster such relationships by acting as strategic partners with USW through the extensive FAS network of foreign service officers serving in 98 offices around the world and its civil service support in the United States. The foreign service officers provide vital liaison with government officials and are active in market development work. The civil service likewise plays a critical role in everything from supporting the foreign service, managing the relationships with organizations like USW, providing market information, analyzing trade policy barriers, and much more.

FAS programs make it possible for wheat farmers to have representatives from USW who work directly with overseas wheat buyers, flour millers and wheat food processors and translate customer needs directly back to the state wheat organizations, who are in turn helping direct research for wheat crop development in their states. This leads to improved varieties and helps farmers manage their crops with the end user in mind, who would otherwise be thousands of miles and multiple steps apart in the supply chain.

A team of U.S. wheat farmers from Kansas, Oklahoma and Arizona bound for trade visits to customers in Nigeria and South Africa met in September 2016 with then USDA Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Ted McKinney (center) and other FAS staff in Washington, D.C.

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U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) joined the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) and other agricultural organizations at a June 22 press conference introducing the “American Farmers Feed the World Act of 2023,” a bipartisan effort to “keep food in America’s international food aid programs.”

U.S. Representatives Tracey Mann (KS), John Garamendi (CA), Rick Crawford (AR), and Jimmy Panetta (CA) introduced the legislation, which aims to restore the original intent of the Food for Peace program without spending additional Farm Bill resources, all while safeguarding the interests of U.S. farmers.

A fact sheet on the American Farmers Feed the World Act of 2023 can be found here.

Rep. Tracey Mann (R-KS) addresses the media during a June 22 press conference announcing the introduction of the American Farmers Feed the World Act 2023.

Rep. Tracey Mann (R-KS) addresses the media during a June 22 press conference announcing the introduction of the American Farmers Feed the World Act of 2023.

“America’s international food aid programs have enjoyed bipartisan support for more than 65 years because they are simple, effective, and they feed millions of vulnerable people around the world each year,” said Mann. “Through these programs, America fortifies our allies, counters the influence of foreign adversaries, creates new markets and trading partners, and stops wars before they start. For decades, America has purchased and donated American-grown commodities to execute our foreign assistance programs. Over time, however, transferring cash and purchasing commodities from foreign competitors with Food for Peace dollars has become the norm. This shift has diminished transparency and accountability, reduced the procurement and shipment of American-grown food for hungry people, and jeopardized more than six decades of bipartisan support for our international food aid programs. This bill puts a stake in the ground: it’s a noble thing to feed hungry people, and we should use American commodities as we do it.”

USW Director of Trade Policy Peter Laudeman provides the media with some background on the USW's work and the effort to restore U.S. farmers' role in helping feed the world.

USW Director of Trade Policy Peter Laudeman provides the media with some background on USW’s work and its support of legislation that would restore U.S. farmers’ historic role in helping feed the world.

USW Director of Trade Policy Peter Laudeman represented USW in the effort to push the legislation forward. Speaking during the press conference, he lauded U.S. wheat farmers for their long history of supporting international food assistance programs.

“American wheat farmers produce some of the best, high quality, nutritious wheat in the world and it has been a tremendous frustration to our members to see their tax dollars supporting purchases of wheat and other commodities from their global competitors in recent years,” Laudeman said. “The reforms in the American Farmers Feed the World Act of 2023 will ensure that more food gets to more people in need throughout the world, without spending any additional resources. American agriculture has played a critical role in addressing global hunger going back to the beginning of Food for Peace in 1954. We are excited to see this bill restore that role as Congress has always intended.”

“The American Farmers Feed the World Act of 2023 allows us, American wheat farmers, to share our production and contribute to the fight against global hunger,” said NAWG President and Oregon wheat farmer, Brent Cheyne. “This bipartisan legislation is a crucial step toward renewing the role of American agriculture in fighting global hunger. It demonstrates our commitment to providing food aid to vulnerable populations while supporting our farmers.”

The American Farmers Feed the World Act of 2023 would restore the emphasis on U.S.-grown commodities to fight global hunger, rather than using American taxpayers’ dollars to purchase food from America’s competitors. It would also restore transparency by reducing overhead costs, preserving resources to purchase life-saving food, and protecting at least 50% of the budget for purchasing U.S.-grown commodities and delivering them to the destination country.

USW Board Member Brian Linin, a Kansas wheat farmer and a member of the Food Aid Working Group, said the measure is important to those who grow wheat.

“This legislation is an opportunity to make sure taxpayer dollars are spent in a manner that truly makes an impact on global hunger,” said Linin. “Commodities produced by U.S. farmers should always be the first choice when it comes to international food aid programs.”

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News and Information from Around the Wheat Industry

Speaking of Wheat

Without a trade agenda that also advances U.S. economic interests by addressing barriers to U.S. exports through free trade agreements, the United States will lose influence globally. Other countries welcome U.S. products and benefit from the two-way relationship that free trade agreements promote. The U.S. government’s trade policy should be comprehensive … strengthening our global economic presence through proactive policies that support our export competitive industries such as U.S. food and agriculture.” – Sharon Bomer Lauritsen, founder of AgTrade Strategies and former assistant USTR for agricultural affairs and commodity policy, in a story by Agri-Pulse Trade Reporter Bill Tomson.

President Peterson Looks at Wheat Export Opportunities

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) President Vince Peterson was in Montana this week for a meeting of the Montana Wheat and Barley Committee. He was interviewed by local media about the current challenges to U.S. wheat exports and future opportunities. “We’re trying to work in that environment where we’re facing a lot of competition globally,” Peterson said. “But at the same time, the carrot is out there … We’re going to have nearly 10 billion people by 2050, we’re going to consume a billion tons of wheat globally, and we’re going to have to trade 350 million tons of that globally.” Read more here.

Drought Expansion

University of Illinois FarmDoc says as of middle June, much of the U.S. corn production region is either dry or in drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, raising the prospects of a serious drought like that which occurred in 2012. Typically, prices continue to rise in drought years and, as an alternative to corn as a feed grain, winter wheat’s weather market appears to have momentum. European analyst Strategie Grains mentioned wheat production is confirmed at low levels in Spain and North Africa, and drought is starting to take hold across northern Europe, affecting yield potentials.

This illustration shows a U.S. map with corn production and drought indicating 65% of corn production area is in drought as of June 20, 2023.

This illustration from government sources shows a U.S. map with corn production and drought indicating 64% of corn production area is in drought as of June 20, 2023.

EU Softening Toward Gene Editing?

Agri-Pulse reported this week that a European Commission draft proposal could lead to a loosening of regulations on new genetic engineering techniques like gene editing. A draft regulatory document leaked and posted online by advocacy group ARC2020 proposes a streamlined path for certain new genomic techniques, or NGTs. An official proposal is expected early next month. “To see the European Commission edging toward welcoming gene editing is just a great thing,” Matthias Berninger, Bayer Crop Protection’s senior vice president of public affairs, science and sustainability, told Agri-Pulse at the company’s Crop Science Innovation Summit in New York City. Read more here.

NAWG: Dam Removal Endangers U.S. Wheat Export Competitiveness

At a at a Congressional Western Caucus Forum on the Importance of Hydropower to Rural Communities, National Association of Wheat Growers Chandler Goule provided a wheat perspective on the importance of the river system and barging play in helping feed the world. “The Lower Snake River Dams are a critical infrastructure system required to move U.S.-grown wheat to high-value markets around the world,” said Chandler Goule. “More than 55 percent of all U.S. wheat exports move through the Snake River system by barge or rail. Specifically, 10 percent of wheat that is exported from the United States passes through the four locks and dams along the Lower Snake River. This corridor is the third-largest grain export corridor in the world and is the single largest corridor for U.S. wheat exports.” NAWG remains opposed to breaching the dams as the agricultural, clean energy, and transportation benefits from the lock and dam system are irreplaceable and will continue to advocate on behalf of wheat growers to maintain this vital infrastructure. Read more here.

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.

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While U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) and the Wheat Foods Council (WFC) focus on different customers, they have a common goal: boosting the bottom line of U.S. farmers. While USW focuses on exports, WFC is dedicated to increasing domestic wheat foods consumption. Both are considered valuable partners and collaborators in the U.S. wheat industry, and several state wheat associations belong to both organizations. In fact, Kansas Wheat Commissioner and former USW Chairman Ron Suppes was seated as the new WFC Chairman during its recent Summer Board Meeting in Denver, Colorado. Watch this short video to hear from Suppes and learn more about USW and WFC’s efforts . . .

 

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Final export commitment data for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 that ended May 31 is now available, providing an overview of the year’s export and demand trends.

In this article, we will look back on the MY 2022/23 demand trends and current MY 2023/24 data to provide context for the year to come as the world wheat market conditions continue to recover from the year’s volatility.

Since the start of 2022/23, wheat prices and freight decreased, and currency markets stabilized following the steep price shock of Mr. Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Despite the improved conditions, volatility and its consequences still reverberate through the U.S. and global wheat markets.

MY 2022/23 Year End Commercial Sales

Even with the year’s price risk, when ordinary hard red winter wheat exported from the Gulf of Mexico averaged $10.70/MT FOB, Mexico, the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan remained among the top U.S. wheat importers in 2022/23 and have consistently been among the leading importers over the last five years.

As U.S. wheat competitiveness began to improve early in calendar 2023, China entered the market, ultimately surpassing Taiwan to claim the number five spot as their purchases surged 38% above the year prior. Moreover, China became the world’s largest wheat importer with the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) putting Chinese wheat imports at a record 14.0 MMT.

Bar chart compares U.S. wheat sales to top 10 customers in marketing year 2022/23 to MY 2021/22 indicating Mexico, Philippines, Japan, South Korea were among the top importers.

Mexico, the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea have been consistently among the top five U.S. wheat importers. In 2022/23, China became the world’s largest wheat importer, surpassing Taiwan to claim the fifth-place spot among U.S. wheat importers. Source: USW Commercial Sales Report/USDA Export Sales Data.

Hard red winter (HRW) wheat sales were 32% behind 2021/22, a function of high prices driven by drought and exacerbated by the war risks. Hard red spring (HRS) sales were up 4% following the drought in 2021/22 that severely diminished the crop and put exports at their lowest level since 2008/09. Soft red winter (SRW) sales were nearly even with the year prior and 9% above the five-year average as SRW remained competitive on the global market. Following drought-stressed production in 2021/22, white wheat exports were up 35% at 4.5 MMT and tracking SRW trends. Durum sales were up 109% due to improved production increased sales to Algeria and the European Union.

Bar chart compares U.S. wheat by-class sales in marketing year 2023/24 to the same date in MY 2021/22.

Some classes saw improved export sales year-over-year despite an overall reduction in demand. HRW wheat sales were 32% behind 2021/22, HRS was up 4%, SRW was nearly even with the year prior, white wheat was up 35% and durum was up 109%. Source: USW Commercial Sales Report/USDA Export Sales Data.

MY 2023/24 to Date

Demand has been relatively light so far in MY 2023/24 as many buyers delay purchasing decisions for more concrete information about the upcoming harvest and price fundamentals. Adding optimism for importers are recent rains in the U.S. Plains that have helped boost winter wheat crop ratings and rapid planting progress in HRS production areas.

Overall, U.S. wheat commercial sales are down 18% from last year’s pace at 3.9 MMT. Even so, customers in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are ahead of their 2022/23 pace, and SRW commitments have surpassed last year’s level by 18% given its competitive price advantage.

USW Commercial Sales Report comparing export sales to specific countries in marketing year 2023/24.

Year-to-date marketing year 2023/24 commercial sales total 3.9 MMT, down 18% from the year prior. Meanwhile, purchases in Japan are 2% ahead of last year, South Korea up 5% and Taiwan up 75%. Vietnam, Guatemala, Ecuador, and Peru have also surpassed last year’s pace, highlighting how the market sentiment has shifted from a year ago. Source: USW Commercial Sales Report/USDA Export Sales Data.

New 2023/24 Estimates

Meanwhile, the June WASDE released on June 9 reported significant increases in world production estimates and ending stocks; however, the increases were unsurprising, leaving futures prices little changed.

World wheat production increased 10.4 MMT from the May estimates to 800.2 MMT on improved output in Russia, India, and the EU. World consumption increased by 4.4 MMT to 796.1 MMT, accounting for increased feed use in China, Russia, and India. Ending stocks increased to 270.7 MMT due to large projected stocks in India, Russia, and the EU. The estimates were also subdued on the domestic front, raising production by 100,000 MT, and increasing ending stocks by 200,000 MT with no other changes to the U.S. balance sheet.

Keep Up To Date

Though it is still very early in MY 2023/24, analyzing past trends and the monthly supply and demand updates helps provide context to aid purchasing decisions. Compared to this time last year, many influences have turned to favor wheat importers, though the war in Ukraine and weather patterns throughout the global wheat growing region add underlying risk. With risk still ever present, information is vital for planning and executing purchases. You can stay current on the latest reports via the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the U.S. Wheat Associates weekly Commercial Sales and Price Reports.

By U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford