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Wheat Industry News

News and Information from Around the Wheat Industry

Speaking of Wheat

“Without a trade agenda that also advances U.S. economic interests by addressing barriers to U.S. exports through free trade agreements, the United States will lose influence globally. Other countries welcome U.S. products and benefit from the two-way relationship that free trade agreements promote. The U.S. government’s trade policy should be comprehensive … strengthening our global economic presence through proactive policies that support our export competitive industries such as U.S. food and agriculture.” – Sharon Bomer Lauritsen, founder of AgTrade Strategies and former assistant USTR for agricultural affairs and commodity policy, in a story by Agri-Pulse Trade Reporter Bill Tomson.

President Peterson Looks at Wheat Export Opportunities

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) President Vince Peterson was in Montana this week for a meeting of the Montana Wheat and Barley Committee. He was interviewed by local media about the current challenges to U.S. wheat exports and future opportunities. “We’re trying to work in that environment where we’re facing a lot of competition globally,” Peterson said. “But at the same time, the carrot is out there … We’re going to have nearly 10 billion people by 2050, we’re going to consume a billion tons of wheat globally, and we’re going to have to trade 350 million tons of that globally.” Read more here.

Drought Expansion

University of Illinois FarmDoc says as of middle June, much of the U.S. corn production region is either dry or in drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, raising the prospects of a serious drought like that which occurred in 2012. Typically, prices continue to rise in drought years and, as an alternative to corn as a feed grain, winter wheat’s weather market appears to have momentum. European analyst Strategie Grains mentioned wheat production is confirmed at low levels in Spain and North Africa, and drought is starting to take hold across northern Europe, affecting yield potentials.

This illustration shows a U.S. map with corn production and drought indicating 65% of corn production area is in drought as of June 20, 2023.

This illustration from government sources shows a U.S. map with corn production and drought indicating 64% of corn production area is in drought as of June 20, 2023.

EU Softening Toward Gene Editing?

Agri-Pulse reported this week that a European Commission draft proposal could lead to a loosening of regulations on new genetic engineering techniques like gene editing. A draft regulatory document leaked and posted online by advocacy group ARC2020 proposes a streamlined path for certain new genomic techniques, or NGTs. An official proposal is expected early next month. “To see the European Commission edging toward welcoming gene editing is just a great thing,” Matthias Berninger, Bayer Crop Protection’s senior vice president of public affairs, science and sustainability, told Agri-Pulse at the company’s Crop Science Innovation Summit in New York City. Read more here.

NAWG: Dam Removal Endangers U.S. Wheat Export Competitiveness

At a at a Congressional Western Caucus Forum on the Importance of Hydropower to Rural Communities, National Association of Wheat Growers Chandler Goule provided a wheat perspective on the importance of the river system and barging play in helping feed the world. “The Lower Snake River Dams are a critical infrastructure system required to move U.S.-grown wheat to high-value markets around the world,” said Chandler Goule. “More than 55 percent of all U.S. wheat exports move through the Snake River system by barge or rail. Specifically, 10 percent of wheat that is exported from the United States passes through the four locks and dams along the Lower Snake River. This corridor is the third-largest grain export corridor in the world and is the single largest corridor for U.S. wheat exports.” NAWG remains opposed to breaching the dams as the agricultural, clean energy, and transportation benefits from the lock and dam system are irreplaceable and will continue to advocate on behalf of wheat growers to maintain this vital infrastructure. Read more here.

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.

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Video: U.S. Wheat Associates, Wheat Foods Council an Important Partnership for U.S. Farmers

While U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) and the Wheat Foods Council (WFC) focus on different customers, they have a common goal: boosting the bottom line of U.S. farmers. While USW focuses on exports, WFC is dedicated to increasing domestic wheat foods consumption. Both are considered valuable partners and collaborators in the U.S. wheat industry, and several state wheat associations belong to both organizations. In fact, Kansas Wheat Commissioner and former USW Chairman Ron Suppes was seated as the new WFC Chairman during its recent Summer Board Meeting in Denver, Colorado. Watch this short video to hear from Suppes and learn more about USW and WFC’s efforts . . .

 

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The Wheat Marketing Year in Review

Final export commitment data for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 that ended May 31 is now available, providing an overview of the year’s export and demand trends.

In this article, we will look back on the MY 2022/23 demand trends and current MY 2023/24 data to provide context for the year to come as the world wheat market conditions continue to recover from the year’s volatility.

Since the start of 2022/23, wheat prices and freight decreased, and currency markets stabilized following the steep price shock of Mr. Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Despite the improved conditions, volatility and its consequences still reverberate through the U.S. and global wheat markets.

MY 2022/23 Year End Commercial Sales

Even with the year’s price risk, when ordinary hard red winter wheat exported from the Gulf of Mexico averaged $10.70/MT FOB, Mexico, the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan remained among the top U.S. wheat importers in 2022/23 and have consistently been among the leading importers over the last five years.

As U.S. wheat competitiveness began to improve early in calendar 2023, China entered the market, ultimately surpassing Taiwan to claim the number five spot as their purchases surged 38% above the year prior. Moreover, China became the world’s largest wheat importer with the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) putting Chinese wheat imports at a record 14.0 MMT.

Bar chart compares U.S. wheat sales to top 10 customers in marketing year 2022/23 to MY 2021/22 indicating Mexico, Philippines, Japan, South Korea were among the top importers.

Mexico, the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea have been consistently among the top five U.S. wheat importers. In 2022/23, China became the world’s largest wheat importer, surpassing Taiwan to claim the fifth-place spot among U.S. wheat importers. Source: USW Commercial Sales Report/USDA Export Sales Data.

Hard red winter (HRW) wheat sales were 32% behind 2021/22, a function of high prices driven by drought and exacerbated by the war risks. Hard red spring (HRS) sales were up 4% following the drought in 2021/22 that severely diminished the crop and put exports at their lowest level since 2008/09. Soft red winter (SRW) sales were nearly even with the year prior and 9% above the five-year average as SRW remained competitive on the global market. Following drought-stressed production in 2021/22, white wheat exports were up 35% at 4.5 MMT and tracking SRW trends. Durum sales were up 109% due to improved production increased sales to Algeria and the European Union.

Bar chart compares U.S. wheat by-class sales in marketing year 2023/24 to the same date in MY 2021/22.

Some classes saw improved export sales year-over-year despite an overall reduction in demand. HRW wheat sales were 32% behind 2021/22, HRS was up 4%, SRW was nearly even with the year prior, white wheat was up 35% and durum was up 109%. Source: USW Commercial Sales Report/USDA Export Sales Data.

MY 2023/24 to Date

Demand has been relatively light so far in MY 2023/24 as many buyers delay purchasing decisions for more concrete information about the upcoming harvest and price fundamentals. Adding optimism for importers are recent rains in the U.S. Plains that have helped boost winter wheat crop ratings and rapid planting progress in HRS production areas.

Overall, U.S. wheat commercial sales are down 18% from last year’s pace at 3.9 MMT. Even so, customers in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are ahead of their 2022/23 pace, and SRW commitments have surpassed last year’s level by 18% given its competitive price advantage.

USW Commercial Sales Report comparing export sales to specific countries in marketing year 2023/24.

Year-to-date marketing year 2023/24 commercial sales total 3.9 MMT, down 18% from the year prior. Meanwhile, purchases in Japan are 2% ahead of last year, South Korea up 5% and Taiwan up 75%. Vietnam, Guatemala, Ecuador, and Peru have also surpassed last year’s pace, highlighting how the market sentiment has shifted from a year ago. Source: USW Commercial Sales Report/USDA Export Sales Data.

New 2023/24 Estimates

Meanwhile, the June WASDE released on June 9 reported significant increases in world production estimates and ending stocks; however, the increases were unsurprising, leaving futures prices little changed.

World wheat production increased 10.4 MMT from the May estimates to 800.2 MMT on improved output in Russia, India, and the EU. World consumption increased by 4.4 MMT to 796.1 MMT, accounting for increased feed use in China, Russia, and India. Ending stocks increased to 270.7 MMT due to large projected stocks in India, Russia, and the EU. The estimates were also subdued on the domestic front, raising production by 100,000 MT, and increasing ending stocks by 200,000 MT with no other changes to the U.S. balance sheet.

Keep Up To Date

Though it is still very early in MY 2023/24, analyzing past trends and the monthly supply and demand updates helps provide context to aid purchasing decisions. Compared to this time last year, many influences have turned to favor wheat importers, though the war in Ukraine and weather patterns throughout the global wheat growing region add underlying risk. With risk still ever present, information is vital for planning and executing purchases. You can stay current on the latest reports via the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the U.S. Wheat Associates weekly Commercial Sales and Price Reports.

By U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford

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World Food Prize Hall of Laureates is Fitting Legacy to Dr. Borlaug and Stellar Agricultural Scientists

On June 15, a U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) representative had the opportunity to visit the World Food Prize Foundation’s “Hall of Laureates” in Des Moines, Iowa. As part of an organization working on behalf of wheat farmers, this was a time to reflect on the amazing international food legacy of the late Dr. Norman Borlaug.

In 16 years of work in Sonora, Mexico, to solve a series of wheat production challenges, Dr. Borlaug developed successive generations of wheat varieties with disease resistance, adaptation to many growing regions, and high yield potential. Combined with his later, collaborative efforts in India and Africa, Dr. Borlaug can be said to have “saved more lives than any other person who has ever lived.” For this work, he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1970.

Great Agricultural Scientists

Dr. Borlaug went on to create the annual World Food Prize in 1986 to “honor the work of great agricultural scientists to end hunger and improve the food supply.” This concept expanded to include the annual Borlaug Dialogue and the Global Youth Institute.

This vital mission to “elevate innovations and inspire action to sustainably increase the quality, quantity and availability of food for all” and the World Food Prize has a permanent home in a beautifully restored Beaux-Arts building in downtown Des Moines that originally served as the city’s public library.

USW Vice President of Communications Steve Mercer toured the Hall of Laureates and shared some photos that illustrate why this remarkable center is a fitting tribute to Dr. Borlaug, World Food Prize recipients – and wheat, with which Dr. Borlaug did so much research and development.

A Moral Right

The photo at the top of this page shows a portion of the Hall’s grand entrance, where guests are greeted by quotes around the Rotunda that establish the meaning and purpose of the World Food Prize. The quote shown upholds Dr. Borlaug’s fundamental value: “Food is the moral right of all who are born into this world.” The stained-glass window above the staircase depicts a family in the Hellenistic Period bringing in the grain harvest.

Image of a sculpture depicting a wheat plant at the World Food Prize Hall of Laureates in Des Moines, Iowa.

The wheat plant represented in this metal sculpture is one of four that, with rice, corn and soy, depict staple food crops. The sculptures are labeled in English and the native language of the region where each crop was first cultivated. Wheat is identified by its ancient Sumerian cuneiform symbol.

 

This image shows a sculpture titled "First Farmer" representing a Sumarian woman seeding or harvesting ancient grain.

“The First Farmer” sculpture represents an early Sumerian female with a digging stick, the first implement used to till the ground, with a basket for seeds or harvest.

 

This image shows a plaque at the World Food Prize Hall of Laureates commemorating a visit to the Hall by Xi Jinping, now President of the People's Republic of China.

In 2012, then Vice President of China Xi Jinping, who had spent time in Iowa in 1985 on an agricultural research mission, addressed a ceremony at the Hall when U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack and China’s Minister of Agriculture Han Changfu signed a U.S.-China Strategic Cooperation Agreement.

 

This image is a plaque honoring World Food Prize laureate and wheat breeder Dr. Sanjay Rajaram who worked with Dr. Borlaug at CYMMIT in Mexico.

Wheat breeder Dr. Sanjaya Rajaram received the 2014 World Food Prize, the 100th anniversary of Dr. Borlaug’s birth in Iowa.  for developing 480 high-yielding and disease-resistant wheat varieties grown on more than 58 million hectares in 51 countries. As Dr. Borlaug’s successor at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) in Mexico, the late Dr. Rajaram is the only wheat breeder who has received the World Food Prize.

A visit to this impressive place is highly recommended. To read more about Dr. Borlaug’s life and work, USW recommends this resource from the University of Minnesota: “The Significance of Borlaug.”

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Kansas Producer Ron Suppes Assumes Role as Wheat Foods Council Chairman

Ron Suppes, left, accepts the ceremonial gavel from outgoing Wheat Foods Council (WFC) Chairman Kent Juliot at the WFC Board Meeting in Denver on June 14.

Ron Suppes, left, accepts the ceremonial gavel from outgoing Wheat Foods Council (WFC) Chairman Kent Juliot at the WFC Board Meeting in Denver on June 14.

Former U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Chairman Ron Suppes was seated as Chairman of the Wheat Foods Council (WFC) during the organization’s Summer Board Meeting in Denver. The Kansas producer has been a Kansas Wheat Commissioner for two decades. He has also served as chairman of the Wheat Innovation Center Research Foundation.

Decades of international, domestic experience

Suppes, who was USW Chairman in 2007-2008, has traveled to several foreign markets with USW. He’s helped promote U.S. wheat in more than 30 countries. Although his involvement with the WFC is focused on creating demand for wheat in the domestic market, Suppes recognizes the very different – yet vital – roles that USW and WFC play.

“For wheat farmers, the difference each of these groups make is dramatic,” Suppes said. “I’ve been involved with U.S. Wheat Associates for many years and have seen firsthand the value of the work it does in international markets. I have also experienced how the Wheat Foods Council works to promote the wheat we grow.”

Suppes, who also represents wheat growers on advisory committees to USDA and the U.S. Trade Representative’s (USTR) office, said state wheat associations and other wheat industry groups should consider becoming involved in the WFC.

“It’s a great opportunity to collaborate on things that affect all of us in the business,” he said.

Many perspectives make up WFC

Reid Christopherson, Executive Director of the South Dakota Wheat Commission, and U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Board Member Kent Lorens of Nebraska, chat during the Wheat Foods Council Board Meeting in Denver.

Reid Christopherson, Executive Director of the South Dakota Wheat Commission, and U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Board Member Kent Lorens of Nebraska, chat during the Wheat Foods Council Board Meeting in Denver.

Suppes will serve a one-year term as WFC Chairman. As a wheat farmer, he brings an important perspective to the WFC leadership spot.

“Ron has already been an integral part of our work and he also provides some continuity to the Chairman position,” said WFC President Tim O’Connor, “The Wheat Foods Council is a unique organization. Our membership includes the entire wheat value chain. We are made up of millers, bakers, ingredient suppliers and equipment companies. But grower organizations and growers like Ron are also important pieces of our membership. We are excited to have a wheat farmer like Ron help push us forward.”

Busy week in Denver

Other members of the WFC officer team for 2023-24 are Vice Chair Mark Hotze, of Corbion; Treasurer-Secretary Britany Hurst Marchant, Executive Director of the Idaho Wheat Commission; and Kent Juliot, of Ardent Mills, as Immediate Past Chair.

Along with seating of a new officer team, WFC’s Summer Board Meeting featured a Communicators Workshop and a review of 2022-23 marketing programs. The organization also took a look ahead at programs scheduled for the coming year. WFC also introduced Sterling-Rice Group (SRG) as its new marketing agency to handle program work.

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Wheat Industry News

News and Information from Around the Wheat Industry

Speaking of Wheat

“The market dynamics with the Russian invasion of Ukraine disrupting traditional wheat movements, the disastrous drought in the Kansas resulting in a high amount of wheat fields abandoned and short overall production, and increased rail transportation costs are all market factors leading to the recent announcements of U.S. flour mills purchasing wheat for import by water, which is a very rare occurrence.” — Justin Gilpin, Kansas Wheat CEO.

Congratulations to Dalton Henry

The Agricultural Business Council of Kanas City has selected U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Vice President of Trade Policy Dalton Henry (photo above) as one of its 2023 Young Leaders in Agribusiness. “We are pleased to recognize these young people who have been nominated by their employers and have shown exemplary passion, leadership, and business acumen,” said Council Chair Dustin Johansen, adding that individuals like Henry “represent the future, the next generation of executives who will lead the agribusiness sector.”  Read more here.

Rain in China Hurts Wheat Harvest

Wheat farmers in China are apparently facing significant crop losses after two weeks of heavy rains that have left their fields sodden. The losses may lead China to rely more heavily on grain imports this year, the impact of which would be felt across the global grain economy. Read more here.

Global Factors Also Push Italian Pasta Prices Higher

Despite seeing a significant drop in inflation, prices are still posing a pinch to shoppers in Italy, particularly when it comes to pasta. Read more and view a video online here.

Women Making Inroads in Milling

At its recent annual conference in Minneapolis, Minnesota, a large contingent of women participated in the event as part of the Women in Milling program that was inaugurated several years ago and continues to grow. Approximately 135 women attended the conference, which was about 13% of the total number of delegates. Many of them were first-time attendees and had met one another virtually on the association’s monthly Women in Milling session. Read more here.

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.

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War Disruptions and Logistics Incentivize Imported European Wheat

The news that U.S. flour milling companies have imported European wheat has raised concerns and frustrations for U.S. wheat stakeholders. To an organization like U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) that with our state wheat commission members promotes exports on behalf of U.S. wheat farmers, such news is particularly disappointing. After all, U.S. farmers produce enough wheat each year to meet domestic demand and still offer about half the crop to export markets.

The concern is not about imported wheat per se. Flour millers do import varying amounts of Canadian spring wheat every year. And conditions have in the past made it possible for feed-grade wheat to be imported into coastal pork and poultry production markets. It is important to state that there is more than enough high-quality U.S. wheat available to produce all the flour we need in this country, and the 2023 harvest is already underway.

However, imported European wheat to produce domestic flour is a highly unusual situation. USW wanted to share what is behind these imports and perhaps answer the questions from stakeholders.

Dynamic market factors have created a large price spread between similar classes of European and U.S. wheat. In May 2023, according to AgriCensus data, the published FOB export price for Polish wheat was more than $107 per metric ton less than the U.S. hard red winter (HRW) Gulf FOB export price. German wheat export price in May showed a similar discount to Gulf HRW FOB.

In looking at this difference between the bargain purchase price in Europe versus the current U.S. domestic market replacement values, USW President Vince Peterson recently said that “this may be the biggest trade margin that I’ve ever heard of” in all his years in the grain trade.

Supply Shock

This remarkable difference in prices happened mainly because the relative volume of exportable wheat supplies in Eastern Europe has exploded this year. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine drastically curtailed Ukraine’s ability to export by vessel from its Black Sea ports, in turn sending war-distressed Ukrainian wheat and other commodities pouring across their land borders into Eastern European countries. That movement severely depressed local wheat prices, harming EU farmers and causing five EU countries to implement bans on imported Ukrainian grain staying within their countries. Russia’s record 2023 wheat crop and unfettered exports (now projected at 45 million metric tons (MMT), also a record) created more regional price pressure.

Even though the EU-27 is the world’s second largest wheat producer after China and second largest exporter after Russia, EU wheat imports increased by 6 MMT in the 2022/23 marketing year. Combined with the unprecedented disruption of regional grain movement, USDA estimates the EU’s ending wheat stocks will rise from 10.1 MMT in 2020/21 to 16.2 MMT in 2022/23. And USDA expects European wheat production to increase this year over 2022 even though there is dryness in western Europe.

Yet over the same 3 years, U.S. wheat supplies have gone in the opposite direction, especially supplies of HRW wheat. Drought has hurt total U.S. supplies for three years in a row, first reducing hard red spring and soft white crops. Then drought cut HRW production in 2021/22 and intensified in 2022/23, resulting in a high number of abandoned wheat fields and short overall production. U.S. exportable wheat supply concerns, combined with the disruptive news constantly flowing from the Black Sea conflict, are supply shocks that continue to support the surprisingly high gap between U.S. and EU wheat prices.

Ocean v. Rail Rates

Considering imported European wheat, the question must be asked about the difference in cost between bulk ocean freight rates from Europe to the United States and U.S. rail rates to move wheat to its flour mills. Comparing those rates today, U.S. rail tariffs and fuel charges to transport wheat are close to twice the ocean freight cost on a per-metric-ton basis.

Unfortunately, this transportation cost spread indicates that rail rates have been and continue to be a burden on the value of delivered wheat for domestic and export markets.

A 2020 study by USDA found that rail rates increased by 30% for wheat, 32% for corn, and 30% for soybeans from 2000 to 2014, and wheat rail tariff rates have increased by an additional 18% since 2014. Rising and unfair rail rates for wheat erode its competitiveness for domestic as well as overseas buyers.

That is why USW’s Transportation Working Group is focused on addressing uncompetitive wheat rail tariff rates to make sure that when global market conditions readjust – and they will – domestic rail rates for wheat do not diminish U.S. wheat’s value at home and abroad.

Image shows grain rail cars by a country elevator to illustrate USW comments to the Surface Transportation Board.

Rail rates have been and continue to be a burden on the value of delivered wheat for domestic and export markets.

An Unwanted Hit

Without doubt, the import of European wheat and the market factors that encouraged it are most unfortunate. As Kansas Wheat Vice President of Research and Operations Aaron Harries said, this situation is “another hit against our domestic farmers” who are battling drought, increased operating costs and other headwinds to produce high quality wheat that is more than sufficient to supply all U.S. flour mills and export demand.

USW and others in the industry believe the imported European wheat will likely move to coastal U.S. flour mills – in part because of the high rail rates milling companies would have to pay to transport it to interior mills.

The supply challenges in today’s global wheat market are likely to continue at least through the 2023 harvest. USW sincerely believes that absent the illegal and highly disruptive invasion of Ukraine, the price spread incentivizing U.S. imports would be much closer. Sadly, the conflict rages on.

Domestically, higher wheat prices also encourage increased production, seen in the significant increase in U.S. HRW planted area for the 2023 crop. Unfortunately, the devastating drought undercut that positive trend this year, but prices remain an incentive for U.S. farmers.

If there is a grace note to this situation, USW President Peterson points out that the price spread between EU wheat and U.S. HRW wheat has recently narrowed. The potential for recent rainfall in Northern Plains HRW and hard red spring production regions to push 2022/23 production higher than expected would help fill the price gap – and offers hope for a better outcome in 2023/24.

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Optimism Emerges for U.S. Hard Red Spring Wheat

As the 2023/24 marketing year begins, the market awaits the outlook for the new crop harvest. Despite early concerns anticipating wet conditions and late planting similar to the 2022 crop year, hard red spring (HRS) planting progress has surpassed expectations.

USDA NASS chart showing variable level of spring wheat planting as of June 1 for the years 2016 through 2022.

Though planting progress influences total production and yield, it is not predictive. Years with late planting can yield average crops, while rapid planting does not equate to good production potential. Factors such as soil moisture, weather, and disease pressure can significantly influence yield potential during crop development. Source: USDA NASS Data.

Rapid Planting Progress

Spring wheat farmers have made incredible planting progress after a historically snowy and cold winter delayed spring fieldwork in the Northern Plains. According to the USDA Crop Progress Report, as of June 4, 93% of the spring wheat was planted, up from 85% the week prior and even with the five-year average. In key HRS-producing states North Dakota, Montana, and Minnesota, USDA estimates plantings at 88%, 92%, and 98% complete, respectively. Over the last several weeks, rainfall has benefited soil moisture, and more recently, dry weather paired with above-normal temperatures helped accelerate planting progress. Between May 21 and May 28, 45% of the spring wheat crop was planted.

USDA NASS line graph showing spring wheat planting progress by week from 2018 through current 2023 date.

After a long winter with historic snowfall in the Northern Plains, 2023 planting (red dotted line) started late. As temperatures warmed rapidly, progress accelerated from several weeks behind to even with the five-year average. Source: USDA NASS Data.

A Hopeful Forecast

As spring wheat planting winds down, emergence hovers near the five-year average. As of June 4, spring wheat was 76% emerged, above the five-year average of 74%. The forecast predicts scattered showers for North Dakota, Minnesota, and Montana, a potential benefit to the newly planted HRS crop. Topsoil moisture in the top HRS producers remains good, with 72% boasting adequate to surplus moisture in North Dakota and 66% in Minnesota; meanwhile, drought removal is likely in much of Montana’s growing regions.

Map of precipitation in the United States the last week of May 2023 shows that wheat production regions including the Northern Plains have received sufficient rain to support planting progress and growth of the spring wheat crop.

Scattered showers have greatly benefited much of the U.S. wheat-growing regions, alleviating Montana’s drought and improving conditions in other key producing states. Source: USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin.

Looking Ahead

The current outlook for HRS remains positive, though continued optimism hinges upon the weather’s cooperation. Recent warm temperatures helped jumpstart planting and emergence, but additional moisture will be necessary to sustain the current confidence levels.

In addition to weather, the underlying impacts of the tight HRS balance sheet and lingering price volatility due to the war in Ukraine will continue to influence the market. As the 2023/24 marketing year continues additional information regarding the production outlook will become available.

To be released on July 12, the July Crop Production Report and the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates will include USDA’s first by-class wheat production estimates. Until then, you can stay updated with the latest crop conditions and harvest progress via the U.S. Wheat Associates weekly Harvest Report.

By USW Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford

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Video: USW Trade Policy Team, Partners Working to Secure U.S. Farmers’ Role in Feeding the World

U.S. wheat farmers have long played a major role in the fight against world hunger, which is why the U.S. Wheat Associates’ (USW) Trade Policy Team has been helping push for changes to the international food assistance programs under the 2023 Farm Bill. Among other things, proposed changes would reinstate the Food for Peace program’s original intent to allow U.S. farmers to share their harvest to fight global hunger. Changes would also halt the use of America taxpayer dollars to purchase food from competitors of U.S. agriculture. In the video below, USW Director of Trade Policy Peter Laudeman provides an overview of USW’s efforts . . .

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USW Policy Team Engages Australian Industry on Collaboration Opportunities

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Director of Trade Policy Peter Laudeman recently returned from Australia, where he joined members of that country’s wheat and grain industries in discussions on plant breeding innovations and other issues ripe for collaboration.

Laudeman attended an international conference in Canberra focused on the research and regulatory landscape of gene-edited crops and implications for international trade.

“As we look to the future potential for gene editing to substantially benefit wheat production, it will be critical that our mutual exporting countries, and customer bases, enable trade in products derived from these technologies,” Laudeman said. “Similar to the U.S., many research efforts for gene editing in wheat are still early in their progress in Australia and will take some time to reach their full potential.”

While in Australia, USW Director of Trade Policy Peter Laudeman (right) pauses for a photo with Dr. Rohit Mago, Team Leader of the Plant Pathogen Interactions group at CSIRO. Among other things, Mago's team works on host resistance involving identification of new sources for rust resistance both for race-specific and adult plant resistance in wheat.

While in Australia, USW Director of Trade Policy Peter Laudeman (right) pauses for a photo with Dr. Rohit Mago, a Principal Research Scientist and Team Leader of the Plant Pathogen Interactions Group at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), an Australian government agency responsible for scientific research.

Laudeman pointed out that the U.S. has been one of the early global leaders in advancing updated biotechnology regulations to cover gene editing. From USW’s perspective, the hope is that the U.S. system will be a learning experience for the rest of the world in managing the pros and cons that have come out of our updated regulations.

In addition to gene editing, Laudeman also engaged the Australians on the potential for GMO wheat to come to the global market. Bioceres, the company seeking to champion their HB4 drought tolerant GMO wheat globally, has indicated that both the U.S. and Australia may be among the first global wheat exporters outside of Argentina to potentially work with the technology.

Outside of plant breeding innovations, there are additional collaboration opportunities with Australian industry when it comes to non-tariff barriers to trade. Historically, tariffs were the primary trade policy challenge for wheat exporting countries, but increasingly, non-tariff barriers have been the more substantial area of concern.

“These non-tariff barriers often impact exporters globally in similar ways,” Laudeman explained. “Being able to collaborate with another major global wheat exporter to ensure consistent, science-based trade is a major opportunity for USW to address longstanding barriers, such as China’s implementation of their wheat tariff-rate-quota (TRQ) system or Turkish flour dumping on the global market.”

Similarly, as sustainability continues to dominate conversations around the world, partnering with like-minded countries to ensure science-based access to essential technologies will be critical to pushing back against regulatory overreach that can effectively become a barrier to trade, Laudeman noted.

Laudeman was able to tour farms in Australia and learn about how farmers in the region approach planting and harvest seasons. He was also able to see how they are using new technologies in their fields.

“The USW policy team will continue to explore these collaboration opportunities to leverage global partnerships that drive more opportunities for U.S. wheat exports around the world,” he said.

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