Freeze, Snow Effects Likely Cut into World’s High Quality Wheat Supply

It is still too early to project specific effects on wheat yields for marketing year 2017/18 from the late-season cold and snow event in Kansas and parts of Colorado, Texas and Nebraska. However, those close to the situation suggest the freeze and snow only add fuel to an already established trend.

“The big story with hard red winter wheat in general before the blizzard headlines was about the reduction in planted area,” said Kansas Wheat CEO Justin Gilpin. “Lower planted area, now combined with higher abandonment in this crop, encouraged USDA to project a drop in hard red winter wheat production by 344 million bushels (9.36 MMT).”

Gilpin said he expects the situation in HRW will help reduce the total U.S. wheat stocks-to-use ratio by perhaps 10 percent — but carryover stocks still support a relatively high ratio of 40 percent.

“However, it needs to be pointed out that this does not reflect the balance sheet for the high quality milling wheat that buyers here in the United States and around the world should watch closely,” said Gilpin. “The available stocks-to-use number for quality supplies is projected to be to be much tighter on a global basis.”