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New Hard White Crop Offers Good Milling, Dough and End Product Performance

In a year when limited exportable quantities of U.S. hard white (HW) wheat are available, the good performance in milling, dough rheological properties and end products, including pan breads, Asian noodles and steamed breads reflect growing conditions and varietal improvements in the 2018 HW crop.

The 2018 crop was grown primarily in Kansas, Colorado, Idaho, California and Nebraska with some production in Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota. U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) estimates 2018 HW production at 894 metric tons (MT), up slightly from 2017’s 883 MT reported by USDA.

Wheat and Grade Data: All six composites graded U.S. No. 1 with test weight ranging from 60.5 to 64.2 lb/bu (79.6 to 84.4 kg/hl). The value ranges of composites are: dockage from 0.0 to 0.6%; wheat moisture from 8.4% to 11.2%; wheat protein from 11.1% to 13.3% (12% mb); wheat ash from 1.37% to 1.59% (14% mb); kernel hardness from 53.3 to 78.2; and kernel diameters from 2.61 to 2.99 mm. The thousand kernel weights (TKW) of Pacific Northwest (PNW) and California low- and high-protein composites are greater than 31.8 g. The TKW values of Southern Plains medium- and high-protein composites are 34.7 and 29.7 g, respectively. Falling number values of 360 sec or higher for all composites indicate all samples are sound.

Flour, Dough and Baking Data: Buhler laboratory mill straight-grade flour extractions range from 71.1% to 74.4%; L* values (whiteness) from 90.4 to 91.9; flour protein from 10.3% to 13.0% (14% mb); and flour ash from 0.42% to 0.48% (14% mb). These values are within the historical ranges of HW flour.

Flour wet gluten contents range from 27.2% to 35.2% depending on flour protein content. Amylograph peak viscosities are between 873 BU and 946 BU, which show good starch pasting properties suitable for Asian noodle applications for all samples. Starch damage values are in the range of 3.6% to 7.8%. Lactic acid SRC values are 139% to 160%, indicating medium to strong gluten strength.

Farinograph water absorptions range from 56.9% to 63.3% and stability times from 9.3 min to 19.5 min, exhibiting the typical HW medium to strong dough characteristics. HW farinograph water absorption is usually similar to that of HRW, but longer stability time indicates more tolerance to over-mixing. The ranges of alveograph values are: P values 64 mm to 98 mm; L values 76 mm to 109 mm; and W values 220 to 317 (10-4 J). Extensograph data at 135-min resting show maximum resistance in the range of 741 BU to 1237 BU, extensibility from 14.5 cm to 22.7 cm and area from 147 cm2 to 218 cm2.

Most samples show good baking performance relative to protein content, with bake absorptions in the range of 61.8% to 68.5%, loaf volumes of 754 cc to 883 cc and crumb grain and texture scores of 6.8 points to 7.0 points.

Noodle Evaluation: HW flours and a control flour were evaluated for both Chinese raw noodles (white salted) and Chinese wet noodles (yellow alkaline). For Chinese raw noodles, the L* values at 0 hr of production and after 24 hr of storage at room temperature are acceptable for all samples except for the PNW, California and Southern Plains high-protein composites, which have L* 24-hr values of 71.9, 70.5, and 71.5, respectively (72 is the minimum value at 24 hr). The sensory color stability scores of all samples are lower than the control noodle score of 7.0. Cooked noodle texture is softer for PNW and California low-protein composites due to the protein content. For Chinese wet noodles, sensory color stability scores are acceptable except for the California low- and high-protein composites and Southern Plains high-protein composites. The cooked noodle texture values of all Chinese wet noodles are acceptable. Overall, this year’s HW samples will produce noodles with more acceptable color if low ash patent flour is used.

Steamed Bread Evaluation: HW flours were evaluated for Asian steamed breads in comparison with a control flour. Results show most samples are acceptable for steamed breads except for the PNW low- and high-protein composites, the total scores of which are low. Blending a small percentage of SW flour with high protein HW flour would improve overall steamed bread quality.

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Top Grade PNW White Wheat Available for a Variety of High Quality Finished Foods

Timely and adequate moisture through the soft white (SW) and white club (WC) growing season and a transition to a warm, dry harvest helped Pacific Northwest (PNW) farmers produce high-quality crops that will provide an excellent range of flour for finished products. The high-protein segment of the SW crop also provides opportunities in blends for Asian noodles, steamed breads, flat breads and pan breads.

USDA estimates total 2018 PNW SW production at 6.03 million metric tons (MMT), up slightly from 2017’s 5.64 MMT. Of that, the Washington Grain Commission estimates white club (WC) accounts for 370 metric tons (MT).

Here is a summary of the season and test results, with full data available online soon and in upcoming USW Crop Quality Seminars.

Wheat and Grade Data: The overall average grade of the 2018 SW and WC crops is U.S. No. 1. The average SW test weight of 61.7 lb/bu (81.1 kg/hl) is higher than last year’s 60.9 lb/bu (80.1 kg/hl); WC test weight of 60.4 lb/bu (79.5 kg/hl) is slightly higher than 2017’s 60.2 lb/bu (79.2 kg/hl). With slight variation, SW and WC grade factors are similar to last year and the 5-year averages. Wheat moisture for both SW and WC is below last year and the 5-year averages, reflecting the dry harvest conditions.

The overall SW and WC wheat protein content (12 percent mb) of 9.3 percent and 9.0 percent, respectively, are 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points below the respective 2017 values and well below the wheat protein 5-year averages. SW wheat ash content (14 percent mb) is slightly higher than last year and the 5-year average; WC wheat ash is higher than last year and the 5-year average. Thousand kernel weights for SW and WC are slightly above 2017 and 5-year average levels. Both SW and WC kernel diameters are slightly larger than last year and the 5-year averages. Falling number values are 315 seconds for SW and 316 seconds for WC are both below last year and the 5-year averages.

Flour and Dough Data: The 2018 SW crop Buhler Laboratory Mill flour extraction average of 72.5 percent is lower than last year and the 5-year average; the WC average of 76.9 percent is higher than last year and the 5-year average. Flour protein content (14 percent mb) is 8.3 percent and 8.0 percent for SW and WC, respectively. Flour ash content (14 percent mb) for both SW and WC is slightly higher than last year, but lower than the 5-year averages. Amylograph peak viscosity value for SW is 497 BU, slightly higher than last year and for WC is 415 BU, lower than last year. Starch damage values are slightly higher for SW and WC than last year, but lower than the 5-year averages. SW and WC solvent retention capacity (SRC) water values are similar to last year and the 5-year averages. SW sucrose and sodium carbonate values are similar to last year, but lower than the 5-year average. SW and WC lactic acid values are higher than last year, but lower than the 5-year averages. SW gluten performance index (GPI) is higher than last year and the 5-year average, and WC GPI is slightly lower than last year and the 5-year average. SW and WC farinograph peak and stability times are close to last year’s and the 5-year averages, while water absorption is higher than last year for SW and the same as last year for WC. The SW and WC alveograph L values are considerably longer than last year and the 5-year averages. SW and WC extensograph resistance is similar to last year and higher than the 5-year averages. SW extensibility value is longer than last year and the 5-year average and WC extensibility is similar to last year and shorter than the 5-year average.

Bake Data: Sponge cake volume for SW at 1066 cc is smaller than last year and the 5-year averages, and the total score is slightly higher than last year and the 5-year average. The sponge cake volume for WC at 1115 cc is smaller than last year and the 5-year average, and total score is higher than last year and the 5-year average. SW and WC cookie diameter values are larger than last year and the 5-year averages. SW and WC cookie spread factors are less than last year and the 5-year averages.

Chinese Southern-Type Steamed Bread: Each flour was made into southern-type steamed bread and compared to a control flour. SW specific volume is the same as last year and the 5-year average. WC specific volume is slightly higher than last year, but slightly lower than the 5-year average. The SW and WC total scores are lower than last year and the 5-year averages.

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U.S. Farmers in 2018 Produced One of the Best Hard Red Winter Crops in Years

The conscientious husbandry of U.S. farmers and the distinct influence of growing conditions across the Plains and into the Pacific Northwest helped produce a 2018 U.S. hard red winter (HRW) crop that has above average kernel characteristics and, in most cases, higher protein than the previous two crops. Annual crop quality testing sponsored by U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) and its partners from Plains Grains and USDA indicates the 2018 HRW quality attributes significantly exceed the last two years and many of the 5-year averages.

Most people and organizations in the industry consider this one of the highest quality crops in several years and will make high quality end products. This crop meets or exceeds typical HRW contract specifications and should provide high value to our customers.

Here is a summary of the season and test results, with full data soon available online and in USW’s annual Crop Quality Seminars.

Weather and Harvest

The 2018 hard red winter (HRW) planted area was 2.5 percent below the historical low planted area of the 2017 crop. With reduced yields and reduced area, 2018 HRW production is estimated to be 18.0 million metric tons [(MMT) (662 mil bu)], down 12 percent from 2017’s 20.4 MMT and 20 percent below the 5-year average production. Large beginning stocks offset the reduced production so the total HRW supply available for the 2018/19 marketing year is larger than three of the previous 5 years.

Conditions varied across the HRW growing regions. Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas were extremely dry during most of the growing season. By the time harvest started in early June, USDA rated 85 percent of HRW in these three states to be in fair, poor or very poor condition. Late season precipitation helped to establish good kernel characteristics even though rains were too late and insufficient to improve yield. In contrast, 75 percent to 90 percent of the crop rated fair, good or excellent in the remaining states north to eastern Montana. Because of dry conditions, disease and insect pressure was low.

Washington, Oregon, Idaho and central/north central Montana had adequate moisture throughout the year that helped maximize production. More than 90 percent of the HRW grown in these three states was rated fair, good or excellent in late June.

Wheat and Grade Data

Despite challenging growing conditions in many areas, the 2018 crop has generally good kernel characteristics. Overall 93 percent of Composite, 91 percent of Gulf-Tributary and 98 percent of PNW-Tributary samples graded U.S. No. 2 or better. Test weight averages 60.9 lb/bu (80.2 kg/hl), above the 5-year average of 60.3 lb/bu (79.3 kg/hl) and above last year’s average of 60.5 lb/bu (79.6 lb/bu). The total defects average of 1.4 percent is above last year’s average of 1.2 percent, but below the 5-year average of 1.6 percent. Foreign material is 0.2 percent, slightly above last year’s 0.1 percent, while shrunken and broken at 1.1 percent is above last year’s 0.9 percent and equal to the 5-year average. Average thousand kernel weight of 30.9 g exceeds the 5-year average of 29.8 g. The average wheat falling number is 373 seconds, which is comparable to the 2017 and 5-year averages and indicates sound wheat.

The average protein of 12.4 percent (12 percent moisture basis or mb) is significantly higher than last year and equal to the 5-year average. Protein content distribution varies by growing region; the Gulf-Tributary average is 12.7 percent and the PNW-Tributary average is 11.7 percent. Approximately 12 percent of the samples tested were less than 11.5 percent protein, 29 percent between 11.5 percent to 12.5 percent and 60 percent greater than 12.5 percent.

Flour and Baking Data

The Buhler laboratory flour yield average is 75.1 percent, lower than the 2017 average of 78.1 percent and similar to the 5-year average of 75.7 percent. The 2018 flour ash of 0.44 percent (14 percent mb) is significantly lower than last year’s 0.64 percent and the 5-year average of 0.59 percent. Composite sedimentation and wet gluten values, 54.2 cc and 28.1 percent, respectively, are both higher than last year. The W value of 280 (10-4 J) is significantly higher than last year’s average of 199 (10-4 J) and the 5-year average of 228 (10-4 J). average bake absorption is 63.7 percent, above the 62.8 percent value for both 2017 and the 5-year average. Farinograph peak and stability times, 5.2 min and 12.2 min, respectively, are higher than last year’s 4.5 min and 6.1 min. Loaf volume averages 901 cc, above the 2017 and 5-year averages.

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Rain-Challenged 2018 SRW Crop Still Grades Above Average and Offers Performance Value

U.S. farmers growing soft red winter (SRW) wheat, especially in the East Coast states, experienced difficult growing conditions in 2018 with excessive moisture affecting test weight, falling number and DON values. Overall, however, several grade factors in the 2018 SRW crop are better than the 5-year averages, protein is somewhat above average, and DON is somewhat below average. Processors should find good qualities for crackers and segments of the crop with good cookie and cake qualities. With higher protein and good extensibility, the crop should also be valuable in blending for baking applications.

That is a summary of results from the U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) 2018 SRW Crop Quality Report, now posted online here. To complete the report, Great Plains Analytical Laboratory in Kansas City, Mo., collected and analyzed 265 samples from 18 reporting areas in the 11 states that account for most of U.S. SRW 2018 production. USW and the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service fund the annual survey.

Wheat and Grade Data

With analysis result weighted by estimated state production, the average grade of all samples collected for the 2018 SRW harvest survey is U.S. No. 3. The weighted average test weight is 57.9 lb/bu (76.2 kg/hl), slightly below the 59.1 lb/bu (77.1 kg/hl) 2017 average. The Gulf Port average of 58.2 lb/bu is similar to the 5-year average of 58.4 lb/bu (76.8 kg/hl). The East Coast test weight average of 56.6 lb/bu (74.5 kg/hl) is below both last year. All other grade factors, dockage and moisture are similar to or lower than 2017 average values. The Gulf Port Total Defects average of 0.8% is below the previous 5-year minimum, indicating that damaged and shrunken and broken kernels are unusually low in that portion of the crop.

The composite average wheat protein content of 9.9% (12% moisture basis) is higher than 2017’s 9.5% and the 5-year average of 9.7%. Both the Gulf Port protein average of 9.9% and East Coast average of 10.2% are above the 2017 and 5-year averages. The composite average falling number of 322 seconds is similar to 2017. The Gulf Port average of 327 seconds is slightly above last year, while the East Coast average of 301 seconds is slightly below last year. Fewer than 10% of samples had a falling number below 250 seconds in 2018. The composite DON average of 0.7 ppm is above the very low 2017 value of 0.2 ppm but is below the 5-year average of 1.3 ppm. The East Coast value of 1.1 ppm is similar to the 5-year average while the Gulf Port value of 0.7 ppm is below the 5-year average. Of the samples tested for DON, 75 percent of the Gulf Port results and 65 percent of the East Coast results were less than 1.0 ppm.

Flour and Baking Data

The composite, East Coast and Gulf Port Buhler laboratory mill flour extraction averages are below 2017 and the 5-year averages. The farinograph peak values are similar to 5-year averages, but the stability and absorption values are all below last year and the 5-year averages. The SRC values generally indicate acceptable quality for crackers; some Gulf Port areas also have acceptable SRC values for cookies. The composite and Gulf Port alveograph L averages of 97 and 98 are higher than last year and the respective 5-year average of 89 for both, indicating good extensibility.

All other alveograph averages are similar to the respective 5-year averages given the variability of alveograph analysis. The Gulf amylograph average of 614 BU indicates good quality for cakes. The composite and Gulf Port cookie spread ratios are all higher than last year and similar to the 5-year averages, again indicating good extensibility. Average loaf volumes are also all higher than last year and the 5-year averages.

USW will share complete data for all classes of U.S. wheat with hundreds of overseas customers at several upcoming events, including USW’s annual Crop Quality Seminars, and in its annual Crop Quality Report. Buyers are encouraged to review their quality specifications to ensure that their purchases meet their expectations.

View the 2018 Soft Red Winter Crop Quality Report here. 

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Annual Spring Wheat Tour Sees Improvement from 2017 Drought Impact

By Amanda J. Spoo, USW Assistant Director of Communications

This week, the Wheat Quality Council hosted its annual hard red spring (HRS) and durum crop tour. Participants spent three days mainly in North Dakota surveying this year’s crop and estimating yield. The tour, which surveyed a total of 342 fields, estimated weighted average HRS yield at 41.1 bushels per acre (bu/a), slightly higher than last year’s HRS average of 38.1 bu/a, which was impacted by ongoing drought conditions in western areas. The durum weighted average yield was 39.3 bu/a, in line with last year’s average of 39.7 bu/a, which was a decline from 45.4 bu/a in 2016. While the overall crop looks better than last year, it is still below the tour’s 5-year average of 45.4 bu/ac.

Participants on the tour always represent a wide range of the wheat industry, including millers, traders, farmers, researchers, government officials and media who travel along eight distinct routes covering most of the state’s wheat production.

“The continuing success of this tour is that we make it a value-added experience,” said Wheat Quality Council Executive Vice President Dave Green. “We keep training more and more people and that makes a difference across this industry.”

On the first day, participants drove west from Fargo to Bismarck, with two routes going farther into the western part of the state, and others covering western Minnesota and northern South Dakota. The Day 1 weighted average yield was 41.1 bu/a, up from 38.8 bu/a in 2017. For HRS specifically, the yield was 41.3 bu/a, down from 37.9 bu/a in 2017. The scouts surveyed 138 fields on Day 1, of which 135 were HRS and 3 were durum.

On Day 2, the tour surveyed 148 fields, 135 of which were HRS and 13 were durum. The group moved from Bismarck to Devils Lake. The overall average for Day 2 was 38.8 bu/a, up from 35.7 in 2017. For HRS, the yield was 38.3 bu/a, up slightly from 35.8.

The third day of the tour included a half day of crop surveying. The participants then all returned to North Dakota State University’s Northern Crops Institute in Fargo to compile the overall crop report. On Day 3, participants surveyed at total of 55 HRS fields and one durum field. The Day 3 weighted average yield for HRS was 45.6 bu/a, down slightly from 46.2 bu/a in 2017.

The results reflect a snapshot of yield potential observed by the participants in the fields they scouted.

“I think what we saw was kind of encouraging in part because there had been concern about scab with this crop, but we saw a lot of spraying for it; and we never felt that more than a handful of fields had a serious scab problem,” said Green. “And we were scouting for it, so we were very positive about what we saw.”

Green added, “I’m also positive that we thought we were headed for a lower protein record relative to how good everything looked going in, but I wouldn’t say the same thing now that we’ve seen the crop. I think it is going to have a wide range of protein and a lot of choices for buyers. I would anticipate that with the heat that us on the crop, the quality is going to be better than normal.”

View highlights and photos from the tour by searching #wheattour18 on Facebook and Twitter. For more information and for results from previous tours, visit the Wheat Quality Council’s website at www.wheatqualitycouncil.org.

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USW Harvest Reports Now Posting Every Friday

Generally cool spring conditions delayed the start of the 2018/19 U.S. winter wheat harvest, but the combines are now in the fields and U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) published a preliminary Harvest Report on May 25. USW Harvest Reports are published every Friday afternoon, Eastern Daylight Time, throughout the season with updates and comments on harvest progress, crop conditions and current crop quality for hard red winter (HRW), soft red winter (SRW), hard red spring (HRS), soft white (SW) and durum wheat.

The weekly Harvest Report is a key component of USW’s international technical and marketing programs. It is a resource that helps customers understand how the crop situation may affect basis values and export prices.

USW’s 14 overseas offices share the report with their market contacts and use it as a key resource for answering inquiries and meeting with customers. USW also publishes the report in Spanish as  “Trigonoticias,” distributed to Latin American wheat buyers and millers and posted on www.uswheat.org.

Anyone may register to subscribe to an email version of the Harvest Report. For the first time this year, USW includes links in the email to additional wheat condition and grading information, including the U.S. Drought Monitor, USDA/NASS Crop Progress and National Wheat Statistics, the official FGIS wheat grade standards and USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Harvest Reports are also posted online at www.uswheat.org/harvest.

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Wheat Tour Scouts Expect Sharply Lower 2018/19 Production

By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst

This week I joined the annual Wheat Quality Council (WQC) Hard Red Wheat (HRW) Tour for an early survey of the new crop. Each year, participants gather in Manhattan, Kan., and spend the next two and a half days in small scout teams, randomly stopping at 14 or more fields in a full day along the same routes followed for many years. The teams measure yield potential, determine an average for the route and estimate a cumulative average for the day when all the scouts come together in the evening. Last year, tour participants faced snow and muddy fields. This year, the snow is a distant memory, as fields on days one and two were all bone dry. A violent storm rolled through central Kansas on Day 2, which cut some scouting short, but brought much needed moisture to the wheat fields.

Just a few hours before U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) published this issue of “Wheat Letter,” the tour estimated a final average yield potential of 37.0 bushels per acre (bu/ac) or about 2.49 metric tons (MT) per hectare for the 2018/19 Kansas HRW crop. This year, the tour participants made 644 stops to scout fields. Combining seeded area with per-acre yield potential, the total production potential estimate was 243.0 million bushels [(6.61 million metric tons (MMT)]. Last year’s total production estimate was 282 million bushels (7.67 MMT).

On the first day, the tour traveled from Manhattan along several routes covering most northern Kansas counties. The cumulative Day 1 average yield potential was 38.2 bu/ac, which is equivalent to about 2.57 MT per hectare, compared to 43.0 bu/ac (2.89 MT per hectare) in 2017. To reach that average, participants surveyed a record 317 fields recording a range from a low of 17 bu/ac to a high of 93 bu/ac. We saw very short wheat that was two to four weeks behind developmentally. Fields were very dry, which has prevented disease establishment, but threatens yield potential.

Participants also received a report on the Nebraska and Colorado wheat crops. Nebraska estimated an average 43.0 bu/ac (2.89 MT per hectare) for a total production estimate of 43.7 million bushels (1.19 MMT), down roughly 7 percent from last year’s tour estimate. Colorado estimated an average of 35.0 bu/ac (2.35 MT per hectare) with total production estimated at 70 million bushels (1.90 MMT), down 19 percent year-over-year, if realized.

On the second day, the tour traveled on routes that led from the city of Colby to Wichita, making 284 stops. The number of observations was up significantly from last year due to much better field conditions this year, though severe weather including tornados and hail, did cut some scouting short. Scouts reported most wheat was one to two weeks behind normal development, but continued to see very little disease pressure. This year, the tour estimated Day 2 average yield at 35.2 bu/ac (2.37 MT per hectare), for a combined two-day average of 36.8 bu/ac (2.47 MT per hectare) across 601 stops. Last year, the combined two-day average was 44.9 bu/ac (3.02 MT per hectare) on 427 stops.

Participants also received a crop report from Oklahoma, where drought conditions severely impacted the panhandle of the state which received less than 0.1 inch (less than 0.5 cm) of rain between September and mid-February. The estimated average yield in Oklahoma is 24.8 bu/ac (1.67 MT per hectare), for a total production estimate of 54.8 million bushels or about 1.49 MMT. If realized, that would be down 44 percent year over year. With decreased yield potential, many farmers have chosen to graze out the wheat fields to feed hungry cattle whose pasture has been impacted by the drought as well. As a consequence, harvested area in Oklahoma is expected to be sharply lower in 2018/19.

The third and final day of the tour was shorter, with each car making three to four field stops on the way from Wichita to Manhattan for the final report. The Day 3 estimated average yield was 39.8 bu/ac, (2.67 MT per hectare) across 43 stops.

View highlights and photos from the tour by searching #wheattour18 on Facebook and Twitter. The WQC also sponsors a spring wheat tour in the Northern Plains in July. For more information, visit the Council’s web site at https://www.wheatqualitycouncil.org.

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Global Winter Wheat Condition a Mixed Bag

By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst

The end of March heralds not only the beginning of spring — a crucial time for both winter and spring wheat production — but also the first round of winter wheat condition reports.

Black Sea — Snow across Russia and Ukraine is providing much needed protection from the recent cold snap in the region, but is delaying spring planting, according to Ukrainian consultancy UkrAgroConsult and the Russian Meteorological Service. As of Feb. 26, the Russian Meteorological Service reported 95 percent of Russian winter grains were rated in fair to good condition, unchanged from the last crop condition report on Nov. 30, 2017. UkrAgroConsult rated 49 percent of Ukrainian winter wheat in good to excellent condition, compared to 40 percent the year prior. Stratégie Grains forecast 2018/19 Russian wheat production at 77.0 million metric tons (MMT), down sharply from 2017/18 due to an anticipated return to trendline yields and smaller planted area. Ukrainian 2018/19 wheat production is estimated at 26.5 MMT, compared to 26.1 MMT in 2017/18.

European Union (EU) — According to the March EU crop monitoring service (MARS) report, EU winter conditions were adequate for winter wheat development despite unusual temperature fluctuations. Temperatures in December, January and the first half of February were generally 1°C to 6°C warmer than normal across Europe before plunging the last half of February to as low as -15°C and -20°C across Poland, Denmark and Sweden. Precipitation in excess of 20 cm (8 inches) in France, the EU’s top wheat producing country, flooded some fields. On March 16, FranceAgriMer rated 80 percent of French common wheat as good to excellent, compared to 81 percent the week prior and 92 percent last year. Stratégie Grains expects 2018/19 EU wheat production to total 141 MMT, down an estimated 900,000 metric tons (MT) from 2017/18 due to expected increases in winterkill and smaller planted area in France and Germany.

India — Wheat harvest is currently underway in India, the world’s second largest wheat producing country behind China. While crop condition ratings there are not available, Stratégie Grains anticipates 2018/19 Indian wheat production will fall to 91.4 MMT, down 7 percent year over year due to a 5 percent reduction in planted area and unfavorable weather and disease pressure.

United States — On March 19, USDA released weekly crop progress reports for top hard red winter (HRW) producing states of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas that showed continued deterioration of topsoil and subsoil moisture and winter wheat crop conditions in Kansas and Texas, but an improvement in Oklahoma. USDA rated 55 percent of Kansas, 66 percent of Oklahoma, and 60 percent of Texas winter wheat in poor or very poor condition, compared to ratings of 53 percent, 72 percent and 53 percent, respectively, the week prior. USDA will resume weekly U.S. crop progress reports on April 4.

Subsoil moisture in Kansas was rated 71 percent short or very short, 28 percent adequate and 1 percent surplus, while 68 percent of Oklahoma and 63 percent of Texas subsoil moisture was rated short or very short. USDA’s evaluation took place before this week’s rain event, so its effects will appear on next week’s report. However, additional precipitation will be needed to make up the shortfall. According U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data, accumulated precipitation across the majority of the HRW-growing area in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas is 3 to 6 inches (8 to 15 cm) below normal.

We are months away from knowing what the 2018/19 world wheat crop will look like and, as always, the weather will have the final say on yields and production. Buyers can be sure the U.S. wheat store will continue to supply high-quality wheat, regardless of what happens in 2018/19.

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Global Supplies of High Protein Wheat Keep Tightening

By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst

In the Nov. 2, 2017, issue of “Wheat Letter,” we analyzed the tight supply of high protein U.S. wheat (minimum of 13.0 percent protein at 12 percent moisture basis (mb)) and its effects on pricing. The latest production and quality analysis suggests that global high protein wheat production in marketing year 2017/18 is down as much as 39 percent from average. That strengthens the conclusion that price premiums will continue at least into the first quarter of marketing year 2018/19 (June to May).

Based on available data, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) has estimated that the world’s wheat suppliers produce about 50 million metric tons (MMT) of high protein wheat in an “average” year. Of that total, USW estimated that about 27 MMT on average are available to export markets, including:

  • 0 MMT of hard red spring (HRS) from the United States;
  • 0 MMT of Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS);
  • 0 MMT from Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine; and
  • 0 MMT of Australian Prime Hard (APH) and Australian Hard (AH).

Looking at 2017/18, high protein wheat production was well below average.

USDA data showed that total U.S. HRS production was down 26 percent year over year at 10.5 MMT, with about 9.0 MMT having at least 13.0 percent protein (12 percent mb). Roughly half of U.S. HRS is exported annually, putting U.S. high protein HRS exports at 4.5 MMT. Carry-in stocks from 2016/17 totaling 6.4 MMT push total HRS supply higher, and potentially also enlarge the supply of high protein HRS. In 2016/17, the average protein was 14.6 percent (12 percent mb), but the protein content of the remaining stocks carried into 2017/18 is unknown. Year to date, the Federal Grain Inspection Service has inspected 3.94 MMT of HRS, 98 percent of which had at least 13.0 percent protein (12 percent mb), and USDA reported an additional 1.26 MMT of HRS sales that have not yet shipped as of Jan. 25. To meet that demand, high protein HRS stocks will need to be pulled out of storage, indicating premiums for HRS are unlikely to shrink in 2017/18.

Of the 19.2 MMT of CWRS produced in 2017/18, about 78 percent, or 15.0 MMT, graded #1 CWRS according to Canadian International Grains Institute (CIGI) data. The average protein for #1 CWRS is 13 percent (12 percent mb), with roughly 75 percent of #1 CWRS samples averaging above 13.0 percent (12 percent mb). If production values match sampling ratios, then Canada produced roughly 11.0 MMT of high protein wheat in 2017/18. On average, Canada exports roughly 70 percent of total wheat production putting total high protein wheat exports at an estimated 8.0 MMT. Weber Commodities, a Canadian-based analyst firm, believes Canada carried in just 1.0 MMT of high protein stocks, putting the estimated total Canadian high protein wheat exportable supply at 9.0 MMT.

Black Sea high protein exports are expected to fall to 3.0 MMT — all from Kazakhstan — due to above average rainfall that significantly lowered protein levels in Russian and Ukrainian wheat.

Australian Prime Hard is only produced in Queensland and New South Wales where La Niña-related drought conditions have sharply cut yields. Generally dry conditions are also expected to hurt Australian Hard wheat yields. USW estimates that Aussie high protein exportable supplies will only reach about 1.5 MMT.

The shrinking supply of high protein wheat can be seen in the prices of the top suppliers. According to the International Grains Council (IGC), the average price for 13.5 percent protein (12 percent mb) HRS exported from the Pacific Northwest (PNW) is up 16 percent year over year. IGC uses the Canadian designation of CWRS as 13.5 percent protein (13.5 percent mb). It reports CWRS prices from both Vancouver and St. Lawrence show an increase of 24 percent year over year. Meanwhile, lower protein wheat producers, such as Argentina, have seen prices fall 4 percent year over year due to the large supply of lower protein wheat.

Here is a table summarizing USW’s estimate of the big cut in global high protein wheat supplies in 2017/18 compared to an average, or “typical” year.

                                    Average Export Supply            2017/18 Estimated Supply

U.S. HRS                        6.0 MMT                                   4.5 MMT

CWRS                          11.0 MMT                                    8.0 MMT

Black Sea                       7.0 MMT                                   3.0 MMT

APH/AH                          3.0 MMT                                   1.5 MMT

Total                            27.0 MMT                                  17.0 MMT

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Annual Crop Quality Seminars Help Customers Make Purchasing and Milling Decisions

By Amanda J. Spoo, USW Assistant Director of Communications

Each year, after thousands of wheat crop samples are analyzed and the results are published in the USW Crop Quality Report, USW invites its overseas customers, including buyers, millers and processors, to seminars led by USW staff, U.S. wheat farmers, state wheat commission staff and educational partner organizations. The seminars dive into grade factors, protein levels, flour extraction rates, dough stability, baking loaf volume, noodle color and texture and more for all six U.S. wheat classes, and are tailored to focus on the needs and trends in each regional market.

In 2017, USW hosted 33 seminars in 25 countries, and many reported seeing record participation. Customers share that they use the report throughout the year as a reference manual and to guide them through purchases and future planning. The seminars provide a first look at the overall crop and a deep dive into the data and how to use it.

“The crop quality booklet is very useful for us as millers for reference and information on wheat quality available for production,” said one participant from Indonesia.

“If we encounter quality issues in our products, we use the wheat quality data to help us make necessary adjustments,” said participants from the Philippines.

Customers will often use the seminars and report as educational training for new employees.

The reports and seminars have been a traditional part of USW’s strategy since 1959, growing to become its single largest marketing activity.

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