By Claire Hutchins, USW Market Analyst

Each year in May, the Wheat Quality Council (WQC) hosts a three-day winter wheat tour across Kansas and parts of surrounding states to assess hard red winter (HRW) wheat conditions and yield potential. For the past 50 years, caravans of industry stakeholders including farmers, journalists, economists, millers, traders and agronomists have joined together to report on the crop.

This year, with the uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic, WQC could not conduct the traditional tour. Instead, Kansas Wheat and K-State Research and Extension (KSRE), in conjunction with the Kansas Department of Agriculture, and other industry partners held a virtual wheat tour.

Instead of the traditional process, a small group of crop scouts surveyed hundreds of fields in Kansas between May 18 and May 21, and estimated environmental, disease and pest pressures and yield potential by region and for the whole state. These estimates represent a snapshot in time and are subject to change with environmental developments.

Stakeholders followed the tour closely through social media (#wheattour20) and in summaries conducted on the Zoom conference service at the end of each day. The event started with some trepidation as drought in the western third of the state, dryness in the state’s central corridor and broad freeze damage in April had raised concerns about what scouts would find.

“Overall, the crop was in better condition than I personally was expecting,” said Justin Gilpin, CEO, Kansas Wheat. “The last two weeks of moisture have really aided secondary tillers emerging in the central corridor and heads are filling with the added moisture.”

After three days of sampling, the state’s 2020/21 wheat crop potential (planted 2019) was estimated at 7.73 million metric tons (MMT), 7 percent below USDA’s May 12 estimate of 8.33 MMT and 16 percent below last year’s output of 9.20 MMT. The state’s average estimated wheat yield came in at 44.5 bu/acre (2.99 MT/ha), 14 percent below last year’s realized yield average of 52.0 bu/ acre (3.50 MT/ha).

According to Kansas Wheat, the state’s north-central district has been plagued by spring drought, and stripe rust and barley yellow dwarf are starting to emerge. The spring freeze also had a significant effect on the crop in that area. The tour estimated the average yield potential for north central Kansas at 41.1 bu/acre (2.76 MT/ha).

“Quality-wise, good rains will help with yield and test weights in the central corridor,” said Gilpin.

The crop looked better in northwest Kansas but was still variable. Jeanne Falk Jones, Multi-County Extension Agronomist, KSRE said, “April took a toll on the wheat crop this year with all the cold temperatures.”

She reported cosmetic leaf burn from cold temperatures on April 2 and 3, and again April 12 to 15. The area has suffered from drought stress, weed pressure due to thin stands, low pressure wheat streak mosaic virus, tan spot and stripe rust. The average yield potential was 51.7 bushels per acre (3.48 MT/ha).

In west-central and southwest Kansas, the driest parts of the state, the wheat is thin and short. Gary Millershaski, Kansas Wheat Commissioner from Lakin, Kan., reported that many acres of wheat had been abandoned due to extreme drought conditions in the spring and fall. In addition, planted acres were already down significantly in the area. He said only 30 percent to 40 percent of wheat in the area emerged before winter, which had a negative effect on yield potential.

Buyers should keep in mind that crop yield and grain protein content are generally inversely related. Fields that were fertilized for 50.0 bu/acre (3.36 MT/ha) that end up with lower yields should produce a crop with higher protein levels.

Millershaski said, “I believe our quantity is going to be down a little bit, but I feel like our quality is going to be unbelievable.”

Calculated yield potential for west-central Kansas was 42.5 bu/acre (2.86 MT/ha), and the southwest Kansas estimate came in at 32.4 bushels per acre (2.18 MT/ha).

“It is amazing how the crop was still holding on, holding out hope for just one shot of rain. Cool night temperatures have helped the wheat from burning up. In those areas of 20 to 25-bushel wheat, if it catches a rain, it may run up to 35 bushel wheat, which is an amazing testament to the wheat varieties,” said Gilpin.

To see more information about the 2020 virtual wheat tour, click here.

Header Photo: Evidence of freeze damage in central Kansas. Photo courtesy of KSU Wheat and Forage Specialist, Romulo Lollato.

By Claire Hutchins, USW Market Analyst

U.S. wheat farmers across the Northern Plains are hard at work trying to plant spring wheat for the 2020 harvest. Their efforts depend on widely varying regional conditions so many producers are behind schedule while some have pulled ahead.

USDA’s most recent crop progress report shows total U.S. spring wheat planting at 42 percent complete, slightly ahead of last year but well behind the 5-year average of 63 percent. Cool temperatures, overly wet field conditions and delayed field work from the 2019 harvest are slowing farmers down in northwestern Minnesota, eastern North Dakota and northeastern South Dakota. More favorable conditions are helping farmers progress across other parts of the Northern Plains.

According to USDA, only 40 percent of Minnesota spring wheat is planted, compared to the 5-year average of 67 percent. Most delays are in the northwestern part of the state.

“We’re only 15 to 20 percent planted in northwestern Minnesota where wetter conditions are slowing field work,” said Charlie Vogel, Executive Director of the Minnesota Wheat Research and Promotion Council.

Conditions are similar in eastern North Dakota.

According to Dr. Frayne Olson, Crop Economist and Marketing Specialist at North Dakota State University, eastern North Dakota had a very wet fall and not all of the region’s wheat, canola, corn and soybeans were harvested on time which pushed fall field work into spring 2020.

“Spring weather has remained cool and wet with very few days suitable for field work,” he said.

As of May 10, North Dakota spring wheat is only 27 planted compared to the 5-year average of 63 percent. Overly wet field conditions could drive farmers to opt for “Prevent Plant,” or fallow out, spring wheat acres. Farmers are eligible for crop insurance payments on fields when extreme conditions prevent them from planting the crop by a final, prescribed planting date.

“Even if some fields will be planted past the optimum seeding dates, there is still good yield potential,” Dr. Olson said. “Weather during the growing season will have a major impact on final yields and quality.”

In northeastern South Dakota, wet weather and colder soil temperatures are also delaying farmers’ ability to do spring field work. In this part of the state, farmers are also likely to Prevent Plant a portion of spring wheat acres. USDA estimates South Dakota producers will plant 850,000 acres (about 344,000 hectares) of spring wheat this year.

“At the beginning of the season, I thought we would come in a lot lower than USDA’s number due to overly wet field conditions, but recently, in the central part of the state, dealers sold of out spring wheat seed,” said Reid Christopherson, Executive Director of the South Dakota Wheat Commission. “Overall, we could end up close to USDA’s numbers.”

According to Christopherson, farmers are closely watching the decline in corn and ethanol demand and its impact on corn prices compared to spring wheat.

“Early in the planting window, producers may choose spring wheat over corn. Late in the planting window, they may choose soybeans,” said Christopherson.

Despite challenges in the eastern Northern Plains, spring wheat producers further west and south are making strong progress in the 2020 planting season.

“Warmer, drier weather, better harvest progress in fall 2019 and an earlier start are giving farmers a boost in central-western and southwestern Minnesota,” said Vogel.

About 85 percent of intended spring wheat acres are planted in that part of the state. Vogel estimates Minnesota’s southwestern region could add 50,000 “new” spring wheat acres this year (acres that would traditionally would have gone to either corn or soybeans) as producers explore spring wheat and cover cropping rotational opportunities that could add value to overall farm profitability.

“In the north, we saw record seed corn sales in January, but we have recently seen record seed corn returns so some of those acres will go to spring wheat,” said Vogel.

In late March, USDA estimated Minnesota producers would plant 1.35 million acres (about 546,000 hectares) of spring wheat, down 7 percent year-over-year, if realized. Given recent marketing and price challenges with corn and the interest in new crop rotation systems, Vogel estimates Minnesota producers could actually plant up to 1.44 million acres (about 583,000 hectares) of spring wheat this year, in line with 2019.

In western North Dakota, “Producers are seeing better progress due to warmer, drier conditions,” said Erica Olson, the North Dakota Wheat Commission’s Market Development and Research Manager. Despite the possibility for more Prevent Plant acres in the eastern part of the state, she believes North Dakota spring wheat acres could still reach USDA’s estimate of 6.10 million acres (about 2.5 million hectares) in 2020.

Favorable planting weather in central South Dakota is helping farmers get into the fields and plant more quickly than their peers in the northeastern part of the state. According to USDA, 75 percent of the state’s spring wheat is planted compared to 38 percent last year and the 5-year average of 78 percent.

Dry weather is helping Montana producers work through their spring wheat planting efforts. Though only 50 percent of the state’s spring wheat is in the ground compared to the 5-year average of 62 percent, progress is right in line with last year. Additionally, according to Cassidy Marn, Executive Vice President of the Montana Wheat and Barley Committee, Montana could see more spring wheat planted area than USDA’s initial estimate of 3.30 million acres (about 1.34 million hectares) due to potentially less acres planted to barley in 2020.

“We could easily reach 3.30 million acres this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we reached 3.40 to 3.50 million acres,” said Marn, which would be up to 1.42 million hectares.