Wheat Production and Harvest Archives - Page 5 of 14

Wheat Exporting Countries Control Just 18% of Global Stocks

By Michael Anderson, USW Market Analyst

As the U.S. wheat 2021/22 marketing year reaches its halfway point, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) summarizes market factors affecting global wheat supply and demand with its farmer board of directors. The data comes from USDA’s October reports, which will be updated on November 9. We want to share some information here, focusing on key wheat exporting countries.

USDA pegs 2021/22 world wheat production at a record 776 million metric tons (MMT), up 1.0 MMT from last year and 2% above the 5-year average of 757 MMT. Total global supplies are forecast to reach 1,064 MMT, 1% less than last year.

Significantly lower production is expected in the United States, Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan and a slight drop in Australian production, all exporting countries.

Among wheat exporting countries, the United States, Canada, Russia, Australia, Kazakhstan and Australia saw wheat production decline for 2021. All wheat exporting countries now hold 18% of world wheat stocks.

USDA estimates 2021/22 world wheat ending stocks will reach 277 MMT, down 4% from last year and 2% less than the 5-year average. A closer look at stocks held by exporting countries reveals that USDA now expects exporters to control just 18% of world wheat stocks, including Black Sea exporters. When exporters hold so few stocks, a bullish market and volatility result.

Following are USDA estimates for selected exporting countries, except where noted.

United States

U. S. wheat production will total 44.8 MMT, down 10% from last year and 15% below the 5-year average;
Persistent, severe dryness significantly cut hard red spring (HRS), soft white (SW) and Northern durum production;
Total U.S. wheat exports will reach 23.8 MMT in 2021/22, 12% less than last year and 10% less than the 5-year average.

Canada

Canadian 2021/22 wheat production will reach 21.0 MMT, 40% lower than last year and 35% less than the 5-year average of 35.4 MMT;
Spring wheat production is projected to decrease 40% on the year to 15.3 MMT due to extended dry weather Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) reported;
According to Statistics Canada, Canadian durum production is forecast to be 3.5 MMT in 2021/22, 46% less than last year on significantly drier growing conditions;
Total Canadian wheat exports will decrease 43% from last year to 15.0 MMT, 36% less than the 5-year average.

Russia

Total 2021/22 Russian wheat production decreased 15% on the year to 72.5 MMT;
According to SG, Russian planted area was down 1%, and average Russian wheat yield decreased 10% from last year to 39.55 bu/acre;
The imposition of a government export tax has slowed international demand for Russian wheat;
Total Russian wheat exports will fall 9% from last year to 35.0 MMT, 2% less than the 5-year average of 35.6 MMT.

Ukraine

USDA estimates total Ukrainian wheat production rose 30% from 2020/21 to 33.0 MMT;
SG predicts the total Ukrainian average wheat yield was up 18% from last year to 66.7 bu/acre;
Total Ukrainian wheat exports will rise 39% from last year’s record to 23.5 MMT in 2021/22.

Australia

Australian wheat production will fall 5% on the year to 31.5 MMT, although this is still a large crop with significant exportable supplies;
Increased average yield was lower despite a 7% increase in harvested area of 34.1 million acres;
Total Australian exports will be 23.5 MMT, 0.5 MMT down from 2020/21.

European Union

Total European Union (EU) wheat production is up 11% on the year to 139.4 MMT;
SG estimates that total EU non-durum wheat will be 129.5 MMT, up 9% from last year;
Heavy rain during harvest in both France and Germany challenged milling wheat quality and, as a result, 65% of EU non-durum wheat, or 80.8 MMT, meets millable grade;
Total EU wheat exports will increase 20% on the year to 35.5 MMT, 20% above the 5-year average.

Argentina

Total Argentinian wheat production will rise 14% from last year to 20.0 MMT following good growing conditions this season;
Total Argentinian wheat exports are expected to increase to 13.5 MMT in 2021/22, 23% more than last year and 8% greater than the 5-year average.

USDA expects 2021/22 world wheat trade to fall slightly from last year’s record to 200 MMT. If realized, that would be 6% greater than the 5-year average of 189 MMT. Total global wheat use is forecast at 787 MMT in 2021/22.

According to USDA’s trade forecast, the United States will have a 12% market share in the world wheat trade at 23.8 MMT, in line with last year’s market share.

November 5, 2021/by Steve Mercer

Wheat Production and Harvest

A First Time Wheat Farmer Shares Her Experience

By Sarah Ahrens, Agriculture Promotion Coordinator, Nebraska Wheat Board

Editor’s Note: This article first appeared in October 2020 on the Nebraska Wheat Board section of www.nebraskawheat.com. It is reprinted with permission. Sarah reports that as a first time wheat farmer, her crop turned out very well with excellent yields and quality that matched wheat harvested in 2021 in her region of Nebraska.

Hey everyone, my name is Sarah and I serve as the Agriculture Promotion Coordinator for the Nebraska Wheat Board. I come from a farming background as my husband and our family raise corn and soybeans, cattle and hogs. After working for the wheat industry this past year, I finally talked my husband into planting some wheat this fall…except he decided wheat production should be my project!

Let it be known, I have an A+ record for being a good passenger in tractors during planting season, but I have never tackled that project on my own. This year, I will be in charge of all wheat production aspects from the day the seed goes in the ground to the last day of harvest. I am excited about this opportunity, and I know I have a lot of great wheat producers who will help me along each step of the way.

Sarah Ahrens, Nebraska Wheat Board, a first time wheat farmer

Sarah Ahrens took on wheat management on her family’s farm in Eastern Nebraska in 2020.

As part of my job with the Nebraska Wheat Board, I get to work with producers from all across the state. Mark Knobel is the District 6 director and is located in Fairbury and represents the eastern half of the state. When it came time to order our seed for the year, I reached out to a local Extension agent, Nathan Mueller, and Mark about the best varieties to use and best planting dates. Mark grows, treats and sells Certified Seed in Nebraska.

Certified seed meets the quality requirements set by Nebraska Seed Law and the Federal Seed Act and assures the buyer of obtaining reliable performance of the variety purchased. Once we determined the best variety to plant in our area, we worked with Mark to purchase the seed and have it delivered to our farm. Near the end of this summer, Nathan put together an image of the best planting dates in Nebraska based on temperature records and previous information. This year, our region’s planting date is set at October 10th, though having it in the ground a little before then is our ultimate goal. Nathan does a great job working with and educating producers in eastern Nebraska about wheat. To read more of his information, you can visit his website at: http://croptechcafe.org/winterwheat/.

After researching seed varieties and speaking with the experts, we decided to purchase two different varieties: LCS Valiant by Limagrain and SY Wolverine by Syngenta. Both of these varieties are well adapted to the eastern side of Nebraska where we receive an annual precipitation of 30 inches and they also have good resistance to Fusarium Head Blight (scab) which tends to be an issue in our area. Fusarium Head Blight reduces overall wheat yield and produces mycotoxins, a toxic substance produced by fungus, that impact both human and animal health. Producing the safest wheat is a top priority, so we are taking the appropriate steps to reduce disease in our wheat.

One of the varieties we are planting, LCS Valiant, though it is licensed and marketed by Limagrain, was actually developed at the University of Nebraska – Lincoln (UNL) by Dr. Stephen Baenziger [now retired]. Dr. Baenziger has been UNL’s small grains breeder for 34 years and has developed 44 wheat, 6 barley and 13 triticale varieties. The full research and development process from crossing lines to field trials and finally licensing the variety takes about 10 years. When a variety has been approved by the variety release committee, it is then licensed to either a state crop improvement association, certified seed grower or private company.

Sarah selected LCS Valiant variety of hard red winter wheat that was developed by the public breeding program at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln and licensed for marketing by Limagrain. though it is licensed to Limagrain company for commercial sale.

Husker Genetics is the foundation seed department of UNL that sells foundation soybeans, wheat, barley, triticale, sorghum, millet, proso millets, dry edible beans and grass seed to certified seed growers. Husker Genetics works with producers all across the state who are certified seed growers, to grow and process the seed each year. Wheat is one of the leading products sold by Husker Genetics. University programs all across the country account for more than 40% of the wheat seed sold each year, which makes funding for these programs a top priority for entities such as the wheat commissions all across the U.S.

The Nebraska Wheat Board was founded in 1955 when the Nebraska Legislature passed the Nebraska Wheat Resources Act. Today, the Nebraska Wheat Board collects an excise tax of four-tenths of one percent (0.4%) of net value at the point of first sale on all wheat sold in the state. This money is then directed into five categories to promote the industry: marketing (international and domestic), research, federal farm policy, and education and promotion. The Nebraska Wheat Board is directed by a seven-member board, appointed by the Governor, who then invests the collected funds into each of the five categories.

The Nebraska Wheat Board recognizes the importance of marketing the state’s wheat both internationally and domestically but also strives to invest a significant portion of its budget into research. UNL varieties account for over one-third of the wheat grown in the state. With new disease and insect issues, as well as continually improving drought tolerance and increasing yield and milling and baking qualities, it is important for research at UNL to be funded because it will most benefit the producer.

As I have learned over the past 11 months in my position, a lot of work is done before the seed even gets to the farmer. It gives me peace of mind to know that many of the varieties planted in Nebraska are developed and tried right here in our state and then the seed is grown and treated by local farmers themselves. There is a sense of security when you know that your crop has been developed and tested for your area specifically and there is data to back up its proven performance.

I am excited to try my hand at being a first time wheat farmer and understand the production practices that help grow a good wheat crop. I plan on using my farm trials as a part of our crop progress reports this upcoming spring and summer as well. I should give a big thank you to my husband for working with me through this process. He has agreed to teach me how to run all the equipment, help me understand application timing and why, and answer all of my questions to the best of his ability. I look forward to this new challenge and I am excited to see what I can gain from it.

September 28, 2021/by Steve Mercer

Market and Crop Analysis, Michael Anderson, Wheat Production and Harvest

USDA’s Latest Look at Exportable Wheat Supplies

On Tuesday, Sept. 14, 2021, U.S wheat futures gained as much as 2% after key wheat-producing nations lowered their production outlooks. With harvest nearly wrapped up in the Northern Hemisphere, the most recent USDA Supply & Demand (WASDE) report brought an updated look at key exporting countries and regions.

USDA currently expects 2021/22 world exportable wheat supplies will be about 221 MMT, down from an estimated 231 MMT in 2020/21.