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Wheat Industry News

Speaking of Wheat

“Land is a resource that will go away if we don’t protect it correctly. With the ever-growing world population and the shrinking land base, the land we’re producing crops on must be managed in a sustainable way.” – Washington state wheat farmer Art Schultheis (above).

U.S. Sustainability Alliance Features Stories of Stewardship

In its Jan. 29 newsletter, the U.S. Sustainability Alliance (USSA) featured Colton, Wash., wheat farmer Art Schultheis discussing the importance of sustaining soil health. He is one of the five U.S. wheat farmers profiled in the U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) “Stories of Stewardship” video series in 2024. Read the USSA feature here.

Family Farms Dominate U.S. Agriculture

USSA also shared results of a USDA Economic Research Service report that of the 1.9 million farms in the contiguous United States, 96% are family farms that represent 83% of total production in 2023, like the Volk family, York, North Dakota, in the photo. Small family farms made up the majority of farms (86%) and operated 41% of the farmland, while large-scale family farms were responsible for the largest share of production value (48%). Read USSA’s summary of the report here.

Welcome New NCI Director

The Northern Crops Institute (NCI) has promoted David Boehm to the position of director. Boehm, who has served NCI as Technical Manager since 2019 and Co-Interim Director since February 2024,  holds dual bachelor’s degrees in Crop and Weed Sciences and Mass Communications, and a master’s degree in Plant Sciences from North Dakota State University (NDSU). Boehm says he looks forward to driving NCI’s mission supporting regional agriculture through education, technical services, and innovation.

Plains Grains Inc. Releases 2024 HRW Regional Quality Report

Plains Grains Inc. distributed its 2024 Hard Red Winter Regional Quality Survey results in January. The report includes detailed quality data on the much improved 2024 HRW crop on regional and “grain shed” production areas. PGI is a valued partner in USW’s annual crop quality analysis with a focus to “provide quality data and facilitate the necessary wheat-quality tracking that millers need to purchase U.S. wheat.”

NDWC Revised Logo and Debuts New Website

The North Dakota Wheat Commission’s new logo (see photo) is more modern and colorful, but still recognizable by producers and customers, said Erica Olson, NDWC Market Development & Research Manager. The new website ([email protected]) provides pertinent information for customers, producers and consumers in a concise manner.  A wider array of brand colors makes the website more vibrant and visually pleasing.

Kansas Wheat and K-State Team Up on Conservation Promotion

A $1 million dollar grant from the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation (NFWF) – recently awarded to K-State and Kansas Wheat – provides dedicated resources to help farmers navigate Farm Bill programs and implement proven conservation practices that best fit their winter wheat acres. “This program is really about conservation programs and practices that include winter wheat as part of a sustainable crop rotation,” said Aaron Harries, Kansas Wheat vice president of research and operations. “This is an opportunity that will benefit the farmer and bring attention to the role of winter wheat as a very important conservation tool in High Plains cropping systems.” Read more here.

Illinois Wheat Association Hosts Double Crop Forum, Celebrates 30th Year

Illinois Wheat Association (IWA) is marking 30 years as an organization in 2025. President and farmer John Howell recently told FarmWeek that the wheat industry in his state looks nothing like it did when the organization was founded. “Wheat has become such an important crop here in the southern third of the state and … wheat and double crop soybeans for a lot of folks is their most profitable acre,” Howell said following IWA’s annual Double Crop Farmers Forum on Jan. 21. Howell and outgoing IWA Board Member Dean Campbell both told FarmWeek that the success of IWA has been “a combination of everyone pitching in.” Howell noted that the IWA is in the process of collecting signatures to vote on the potential adoption of a wheat checkoff program in Illinois.

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.

 

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Video: The Story of the Reliable System that Transports Wheat from the U.S. Plains to Customers Around the World

Kent Lorens and Derek Sawyer each consider themselves to be “mere links in the reliable wheat supply chain.”

But without farmers like them, there is no chain.

Thus, the two play major roles in a new U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) video project that tells the story of how a reliable system of trucks, trains and ships moves U.S. wheat from farm field to grain

Kent Lorens and his sons take a break from the 2024 wheat harvest in Stratton Nebraska.

Kent Lorens and his sons take a break from the 2024 wheat harvest in Stratton Nebraska.

elevator to shipping port and finally on to customers around the world.

The video focuses on wheat grown in Plains states for export out of the Texas Gulf. It includes footage and interviews with a major customer of U.S. wheat. A key figure at an export facility in Houston, Texas is also highlighted.

“When we receive an order from an overseas buyer, we are able to leverage the large supply chain network that we have access to. This ensures we can reach out across the country and get the exact specs and quality factors that the customer requested,” Sean Ryan, Plant Superintendent at the TEMCO port facility, says in the video. TEMCO is a partnership in the Houston port between exporters Cargill and CHS.

As two ships are loaded with U.S. wheat in the background, Ryan credits a key link in the reliable supply chain: U.S. wheat farmers.

Energy and Care on the Farm

“They’re dedicating their time and energy to the fields and to the crop that they’re growing,” Ryan says. “Overall, the level of care, efficiency and effectiveness of our wheat supply chain is unmatched. It is unmatched because the dependable people responsible for each step in this process are all committed to excellence. They are committed to ensuring U.S. wheat remains the top choice for more than 100 countries worldwide.”

Derek and Katie Sawyer stand in one of the family's wheat fields in McPherson, Kansas.

Derek and Katie Sawyer stand in one of the family’s wheat fields in McPherson, Kansas.

Scenes from Sawyer’s Kansas farm were shot last spring. His family’s wheat fields were just heading. In late summer, the video crew set cameras up on the Lorens family farm in Nebraska. The goal was to capture the wheat harvest. Both farmers discuss the care they take to sustainably grow high-quality wheat. They also explain how they value their customers, as well as the supply chain that delivers their wheat.

Sawyer has had the privilege of meeting customers of U.S. wheat from international markets. He notes how he enjoys sharing insight and information about this farm in McPherson, Kansas.

“We have really turned our efforts more from a quantity of production of wheat to a quality,” he explains in the video. “We’re looking down the supply chain, for wheat varieties that will match what our customers want. And we realize that the milling aspects of the wheat are just as important as the amount of wheat that they’re getting.”

Robust Elevator Network

Lorens pointed out the importance of local grain elevators and the process of maintaining the quality of U.S. wheat in this reliable system.

“What makes U.S. wheat so dependable is our robust network of local elevators,” said Lorens, who farms in Stratton, Nebraska. “I’m proud to be part of that. As a farmer, I appreciate that we can produce a very high-quality product that can be readily and easily shipped across the world.”

Guillermo Gomez, Vice Chairman at Grupo Timex in Mexico City, provides the broad perspective of a U.S. wheat customer in this story. He talks about the importance of wheat to his business, his appreciation for wheat farmers and the deserved attention to sustainable practices.

“We are proud to be a milling company that reaches the table of many Mexican families with our flour through a wide range of customers, from multinational companies to “mom and pop” bakeries,” Gomez says in the video. “Wheat is key to our business. It is our most important raw material from which all our products are made. It’s very important to understand and visit our with suppliers to get a firsthand understanding of their agricultural process.”

Links in the Supply Chain

Along with showing how wheat moves down the Plains to port, the video also highlights the volume of wheat trading. Ryan notes that the average shuttle train unloaded at the TEMCO facility has approximately 115 cars holding roughly 435,000 bushels. The average semi-truck carries about 1,200 bushels.

“This ship behind me that we’re loading today is going to take about 1.9 million bushels, which will be upwards of 44,000 wheat acres grown in the United States,” Ryan adds.

As a U.S. wheat farmer, Lorens was inspired by those numbers and calculations.

“We farmers don’t regularly get a chance to actually see where our wheat ends up, or what happens to it after we deliver it to the local elevator,” he said. “This video project will help show us the whole supply chain, of which we are a mere link.”

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Security, Reliability, and Accuracy: A Look into USDA NASS Reporting

Every year the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Foreign Agricultural Service and other USDA agencies publish hundreds of reports to meet information needs for dozens of agricultural products. For wheat, USDA NASS releases a variety of reports, including:

The reports marked with asterisks offer critical economic indicators. They are market-movers widely used in agribusiness and analyses, including decision-making by buyers and sellers of agricultural commodities. Due to their importance and potential implications, many reports are prepared under special security conditions known as the “Lockup” to protect the sensitivity of the information and the integrity of the agency’s data.

On January 10, I joined several other U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) wheat colleagues from the Arlington, Va., and Portland, Ore., offices, along with USDA staff, students, farmers, reporters, and representatives from other industry groups, to observe the Lockup process firsthand.

The Experience

USDA’s Lockup begins with an initial security screening at the entrance, a standard procedure for U.S. federal buildings. After entry, individuals are required to deposit all electronics, including smart watches and cellphones, into designated lockers. From there the group undergoes an additional security screening before entering the secure floors.

 

On the locked floors, access to the outside world is restricted; internet and telephone services are disabled, window shades are secured, and wireless transmissions are monitored. Once “locked in,” we learned about the agencies’ data collection methods and commitment to statistical integrity. We also observed USDA economists and commodity analysts discussing and defending their positions.

Upon completion of the Lockup, USW Director of Programs Catherine Miller emphasized the importance of transparency and accuracy for these vital reports. Miller also noted that, as frequent USDA data users, “we gained a closer understanding of this process.” Luke Muller, Assistant Director, West Coast Office, also highlighted NASS’s pride in providing timely and accurate estimates for U.S. commodities. He remarked that “witnessing the inner workings of how the data is produced for us and the rest of the world reinforced the significance of this process.”

The Recent Updates

Among other reports in this month’s Lockup, USDA NASS published the Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings Report with the first detailed look at winter wheat plantings for the 2025 harvest. According to the report, the HRW planted area is at 24.0 million acres, unchanged from the previous year, while SRW acres have increased by 5% to 6.4 million acres. This brings the total U.S. winter wheat acreage to 34.1 million.

Also compiled on the same day, the USDA stocks report, shows total wheat stocks at 42.7 MMT (1.57 billion bushels) as of Dec. 1, 2024, a 10% increase from the previous year. On-farm stocks are at 12.7 MMT (467 million bushels), up 16%, and off-farm stocks are at 29.9 MMT (1.10 billion bushels), up 8%.

This information is crucial for buyers and sellers to plan for the 2025 harvest and begin to make purchasing decisions for the next marketing year.

An Open Door

USW strongly supports the USDA mission and our shared goal of providing accurate, reliable, and timely information to wheat buyers globally. USDA NASS invites everyone to observe how they ensure data security, accuracy, and equal access.

“Attending the lockup was a valuable opportunity to observe the process behind USDA’s publication of data” remarked Erica Oakley, Vice President of Programs. “The data presentations, followed by the dialogue between the USDA chief economist and commodity analysts, left me feeling more informed about their process and how numbers are calculated. I highly encourage others to take advantage of the opportunity if they can.”

For more information, watch this short video, “How NASS’s ‘Lockup’ Protects Agricultural Data for Fair Markets.”

By USW Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford

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U.S. Wheat Associates Marks 45 Years of Service

On January 12, 1980, wheat farmer leaders with Great Plains Wheat and Western Wheat Associates voted to officially merge into one organization, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW), to focus on building overseas demand for U.S. wheat.

As we did in 2020 to mark our 40th anniversary, in our 45th year USW will recognize and celebrate the people who produce the wheat and their enduring partnerships with their state commissions, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), wheat buyers, and wheat food processors around the world.

This anniversary provides a platform for us to reinforce our unique value to our customers — that behind the world’s most reliable supply of wheat are the world’s most dependable people. That, despite the different roles or distances, all the people in our story share a connection through our shared values of growth, hard work, stewardship, and family.

Image shows a rolling wheat field with a harvester cutting wheat with the words Dependable People. Reliable Wheat. appearing across the field.

Learn more about the unmatched value of high quality U.S. wheat grown and delivered by dependable people and the reliable supply system.

So, throughout 2025, U.S. Wheat Associates will revisit stories of commitment from farmers and the important partnerships that are a unique and valuable part of importing U.S. wheat — and look ahead to the ways we can continue building this legacy of success.

Partnerships at Home and Abroad

Farmers represented by 17 state wheat commissions work closely with FAS through U.S. Wheat Associates to demonstrate the need for export market development support. Those organizations and the rest of the efficient U.S. supply chain share in the challenges and rewards of wheat trade. We will also demonstrate how the world’s wheat buyers, millers and food processors view their partnership with our organization.

This legacy and those partnerships provide advantages USW believes no other wheat exporting country can provide. They combine to supply the highest quality wheat for almost every customer’s needs. Pricing is set by market conditions and remains transparent to buyers. U.S. wheat is backed by trusted third-party certification under Federal Grain Inspection Service standards. USW representatives and technical service experts provide unmatched service before and after the sale. Together, these advantages build differential value for our customers.

New Stories of Stewardship

In 2025, USW will also share new information about how U.S. farmers are producing more and better-quality wheat with practices that are better for the planet we all share. These “Stories of Stewardship” represent values shared with our customers, many of which, like U.S. farms, are family businesses going through generational changes and dealing with challenging markets.

U.S. Wheat Associates invites you to follow us on this website, on social media, and in person as we recount how USW works to help wheat buyers, millers, bakers, wheat food processors, and government officials understand the quality, value, and reliability of all six classes of U.S. wheat.

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Wheat Industry News From Around the World

Speaking of Wheat

“As president … I talked to experienced producers facing the realities of this downturn in the ag economy, and they feared they would not be able to secure operating credit in 2025 without some form of economic assistance. This legislation provides farmers with a bridge heading into next year. However … enacting a robust, long-term farm bill remains a top priority.” – Keeff Felty, President of the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG), in a statement about the introduction of economic assistance for farmers as part of a year-end legislative package.

Happy Holidays from U.S. Wheat Associates!

Your friends at U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) want to extend our heartfelt gratitude and best wishes to each of you in this holiday season. This is a time for reflection, celebration, and looking forward to new beginnings. Thank you for being an integral part of our journey. We wish you and your families a wonderful holiday season and hope that 2025 brings you joy, good health, and prosperity.

War and Wheat

Australian author Dennis Voznesenski has written a new book titled “War and Wheat:  Navigating Markets During Global Conflict,” explaining about how developments in the first two world wars impacted global wheat trade, input availability, production, and the ability to maintain adequate reserves. For more about the book and its content, visit Sosland Publishing to read Arvin Donely’s review.

Good News About Grain Foods and Cardiovascular Disease

The Grain Foods Foundation recently reported on a new study published Trends in Cardiovascular Medicine showing consuming high intakes of refined grain foods does not increase one’s risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary heart disease, heart attack, heart failure, or stroke. The results of the meta-analyses suggest that refined grains do not contribute to the higher CVD risk associated with unhealthy Western dietary patterns. Dr. Glenn Gaesser, a professor in the College of Health Solutions at Arizona State University, and a contributor to the Wheat Foods Council, authored the new study.

Do Svidaniya, Wheat Hectares?

Reuters on Dec. 11 reported that Russian farmers, faced with crop losses this year and low global prices, say they will sow less wheat and switch to more profitable crops. Such decisions will have direct implications for global markets, as Russia is the world’s top exporter of wheat. Russian analysts cited leaked data from the state weather agency for November that showed that at least 37% of winter crops, mostly wheat, are in poor condition due to a lack of moisture in the ground, saying this is the worst rating recorded to date. Read more here.

Thank You to Jay O’Neil

Long-time transportation expert Jay O’Neil has announced that while he will continue consulting on freight and commodity markets, he will cease publication of his weekly “Transportation and Export” report. “January 2025 will mark my 52nd year in the Grain business. Yes, I started way back during the Great Russian Grain Robbery,” Jay said. “I greatly appreciate all my report subscribers and readers and thank you for your years of interest and trust.” Thank you, Jay, from your USW friends! Here is a link to Jay’s comprehensive look at the commodity freight market in 2021.

Congratulations to WSU Wheat Breeder

USW recently honored Dr. Arron Carter as the O.A. Vogel Endowed Chair of Wheat Breeding and Genetics at Washington State University (WSU). USW Vice President and West Coast Office Director Steve Wirsching said Dr. Carter “is a once-in-a-generation wheat breeder bringing new technology and methods coupled with persistence to his work.” Wirsching noted that in 2018, Dr. Carter participated in a USW Wheat Quality Improvement Team (WQIT) visiting wheat buyers in Mexico, Guatemala, Costa Rica, and Peru to learn about the end-use quality factors that Latin American buyers value.

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.

 

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U.S. Farmers Pinched by High Costs and Low Prices

In recent months, wheat markets have stabilized, contrasting the unprecedented volatility following war, drought, and economic uncertainty that has defined markets over the last few years. After dipping to price levels not seen since 2020 earlier this year, world FOB values have recovered slightly, clustering near $250/MT.

We have previously looked at long-term trends in world wheat markets, analyzed price movements, and highlighted key opportunities for U.S. wheat in this forum. However, as the market stabilizes and import prices become more competitive for wheat customers, one key segment of the value chain has not reaped the benefits.

In today’s analysis, we will examine current price trends from the U.S. farmer perspective, considering factors that affect their profitability and planting decisions — decisions crucial for their families’ well-being and for a hungry world.

Mounting Macroeconomic Pressure

Mounting macroeconomic pressures in the U.S. have impacted businesses industry-wide, forcing large multinational agribusinesses like Cargill and John Deere to implement layoffs. Persistent inflation diminishes domestic purchasing power across the supply chain, while a strong U.S. dollar exerts downward pressure on commodity prices. Concurrently, as the U.S. Federal Reserve attempted to control inflation, rising interest rates increased both the frequency and cost of borrowing.

As economic conditions deteriorate, a recent study by Rabobank indicated that, while many farms are projected to remain financially stable through 2024, farm financial health has been declining since 2021. This trend is reflected in key indicators such as liquidity, profitability, and solvency. Supporting their findings, the USDA’s 2024 Farm Sector Income Forecast, released on Dec. 3, estimated that working capital, a common measure of liquidity, is expected to decrease 9.1% from 2023. Although, solvency measures such as debt-to-asset ratios are expected to improve slightly, overall farm sector debt is expected to increase 4.5% to a record $542.5 billion. As farm profitability metrics decline, loan volumes rise. According to Rabobank, in the first quarter of 2024, loan volumes increased by 14%, marking the sharpest uptick since the 1980s, while the USDA income forecast sees interest expenses increasing 4% from last year.

Given increased debt and a weakening financial position, farmers generally do not change crop production decisions directly; however, a continued trend could suggest a coming agricultural industry recession, potentially altering the current size and makeup of farms moving forward.

Line chart showing the relationship between high costs and low prices for U.S. crop production.

Looking at farm specific inputs, price trends lag as the output prices fall, which continues to erode profitability for the farmer. Prices for operating expenses are still elevated compared to pre-war levels, remaining “sticky” even as commodity prices drop. Source: USDA NASS.

The Stickiness Factor

Looking at farm specific inputs, input prices lag behind falling output prices, eroding farmers’ profitability. Operating expenses for fertilizer, seed, chemicals, and fuel have decreased slightly in 2024 but remain elevated compared to pre-war levels, staying “sticky” even as commodity prices drop.

USDA estimates that fertilizer expenses in 2023 were 11% above pre-war levels. Crop protection products and fuel expenses are 8% and 11.3% higher respectively than pre-war figures. Seed costs are the “stickiest,” remaining 21% above pre-war levels. Meanwhile, other expenses, including labor, borrowing costs, and property taxes, have increased from last year.

These sticky costs have led farmers to adjust expenditure on some inputs such as machinery and fertilizer. However, not all inputs can be cut equally. Seed and crop protection products have more “inelastic” demand, meaning that volume tends to not fluctuate with price. These price discrepancies cut directly into the producer’s margin.

Furthermore, farmers must make planting and input purchasing decisions months before harvest, creating price risk and a lag between input use and commodity prices.

Bar chart shows input costs for farms has declined slightly in 2024 compared to 2023.

USDA estimates that fertilizer expenses in 2023 were 11% above pre-war levels. Crop protection products and fuel expenses are 8% and 11.3% higher respectively than pre-war figures. Seed costs are the “stickiest,” remaining 21% above pre-war levels. Source: USDA 2024 Farm Sector Income Forecast.

The Profitability Conundrum

The total farm sector income is projected to decline more slowly in 2024 than in 2023, following record highs in 2022. The USDA estimates net farm income at $140.7 billion, down 4% from the previous year and 19% from the 2022 peak of $181.9 billion. By commodity, farm income from grains and oilseeds trends lower compared to producers in animal production or specialty crops.

Further, the recent decrease in farm income is twofold. Although increased U.S. farm output in 2024 boosts income, the larger volume was insufficient to offset the impact of lower commodity prices.

Combined bar charts showing USDA's estimate of net farm income for several sectors; only livestock, dairy, and specialty crops income has increased since 2020.

USDA put net farm income at $140.7 billion, down 4% from the previous year and down 19% from the peak of $181.9 billion in 2022. Moreover, the declines are not uniform. Net farm income from grains and oilseeds trended lower compared to livestock and dairy production and specialty crops. Source: USDA 2024 Farm Sector Income Forecast.

In another period of lower commodity prices, “sticky” input costs, and a weak macroeconomic environment, producers’ margins continue to be squeezed, creating a nationwide profitability conundrum. The results are not clear but specifically, income shortfall of U.S. wheat production relative to other, more profitable crops has been a factor in the well-documented decline in wheat planted area.

As we were working on this cost-price challenge, a tentative agreement in the U.S. Congress on economic assistance and disaster relief for growers across the country was forged. Political divisions now appear to have scuttled that agreement leaving more uncertainty. Such support would have been welcome not only to farmers, but also to their customers who value and rely on them for high-quality products.

Amidst the uncertainty, farmers will continue doing what they have always done: persevere whatever comes.

 

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2024 Activities Helped Buyers Connect U.S. Wheat to Quality, Reliability

Top Photo: In November, Master Baker Didier Rosada conducted a USW baking seminar for milling companies in Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Gambia, and Senegal. The seminar was part of USW’s work to promote greater use of U.S. hard red spring (HRS) and hard red winter (HRW) wheats in flour blends. 

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Bakery Technologist David Oh is credited with helping a group of South Korean bakers make an important connection earlier this year. The effort serves as a perfect example of how USW market development activities – short courses, technical workshops, and trade teams – promoted U.S. wheat in overseas markets in 2024.

Over the past 12 months, USW sponsored a dozen short courses hosted by the Wheat Marketing Center (WMC), the Northern Crops Institute (NCI) and the IGP Institute (IGP). USW also hosted eight trade teams made up of international wheat buyers on visits to the U.S. and participated in USDA agricultural trade missions around the world.

Each activity had a common goal: to connect U.S. wheat to customers who value quality and reliability.

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Bakery Technologist David Oh with the Korean Bakery Product Development Team on the Thomas Dierickx farm in Oregon.

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Bakery Technologist David Oh with the Korean Bakery Product Development Team on the Thomas Dierickx farm in Oregon.

Farmers Are Key

Back in April, Oh led a team of professionals through a Bakery Product Development Course at the WMC in Portland. The seminar focused on a handful of products that allowed the Korean team to see how U.S. wheat quality helps bakers create better end products. A visit to the Thomas Dierickx farm to meet U.S. wheat farmers and learn about their production practices was a significant event to showcase the reliability of the U.S. wheat crop.

“All the technical baking work we did in the lab at the Wheat Marketing Center was very important and very educational,” Oh said. “But introducing the bakers to the farmers and showing them how U.S. wheat is grown and the care the farmers take to produce the crop had a big impact on the team.”

USDA Funding is Vital

The Market Access Program (MAP) and Foreign Market Development (FMD) program anchor USW’s activities each year. The Agricultural Trade Promotion Program (ATP) is winding down. But the new FAS Regional Agricultural Promotion Program (RAPP) is now allowing USW to maintain a higher level of trade and technical service for customers.

“These kinds of activities really help us put a spotlight on the quality and value of U.S. wheat, and serve as the bread and butter of what we do, so to speak,” said USW Chairman Clark Hamilton. Clark, an Idaho wheat farmer, was involved in several 2024 activities. He was part of USDA’s first-ever U.S. agribusiness trade mission to Luanda, the capital of Angola. There, he teamed with Chad Weigand, USW’s Regional Director for Sub-Saharan Africa, to meet with millers and bakers and analyze consumer trends.

“Wherever I’ve been in the world meeting with millers and bakers, one thing has been clear: The U.S. Wheat Associates staff does a tremendous job of building and maintaining relationships within the global markets, and that is very important,” said Hamilton. “We are in a very competitive business in a very competitive world, so having those relationships is incredibly valuable.”

A small sampling of the many USW activities in 2024

South America

Educational meetings, firsthand workshops and on-site production support were part of USW’s successful effort to convince one of Colombia’s largest cake, cookie, and cracker manufacturers to make its very first purchase of U.S. wheat. The company makes an iconic rectangular, chocolate-covered cake snack, but has only ever used flour additives and Canadian spring wheat flour to make that snack as well as cookies, crackers, and other products for more than 40 years. In February 2024, a company executive wrote USW to say: “The seminars … have given us tools to strengthen our negotiation and supply strategies,” the executive wrote. “During 2023, we began the approvals and purchases … a historic milestone for [us] and U.S. wheat. The commercial relationship that we want to continue strengthening as strategic partners in the following years.”

Tawain

USW Taipei worked with Chia Fha Flour Mill to hold a U.S. wheat flour and bakery products briefing session October 7. An estimated 30 bakers, distributors, ingredient suppliers, and baking instructors took part. At the event, USW offered a broad look at positive U.S. wheat characteristics. Chi Fha’s R&D head then introduced two new flour products made with 100% U.S. wheat that are more suitable for pan bread and hearth bread with higher moisture and longer shelf life.

Mexico and Latin America

USW Vice Chairman Clark Hamilton, USDA Deputy Secretary Xochitl Torres Small and USW Regional Director for Sub-Saharan Africa Chad Weigand pause for a photo in Luanda, Angola, during a U.S. agribusiness trade mission in late February.

USW Vice Chairman Clark Hamilton, USDA Deputy Secretary Xochitl Torres Small and USW Regional Director for Sub-Saharan Africa Chad Weigand pause for a photo in Luanda, Angola, during a U.S. agribusiness trade mission in late February.

In August, USW/Mexico City Assistant Regional Director Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann traveled to Panama City, Panama, and San Pedro Sula, Honduras, to a procurement seminar in each location. The seminars targeted a cross-section of mill staff from each of the participating mills. Included were representatives from production, purchasing, quality control and executive teams. Bryant-Erdmann shared USW’s “Getting the Wheat You Want” presentation and did a review of class and quality specification recommendations. Mexico remains U.S. wheat’s top importer.

Africa

USW worked to promote greater use of U.S. hard red spring (HRS) and hard red winter (HRW) wheats in flour blends for African bakers. Focusing on baguettes, fanti bread, biscuits and other products, USW’s Cape Town Office conducted a baking seminar at the Baking and Pastry Training Institute (IFMBP) in Casablanca. Master Baker Didier Rosada conducted the November seminar for 11 participants from milling companies. Those companies are based in Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Gambia, and Senegal. The four-day seminar highlighted use of HRS blended with local wheat flour for French baguettes. The seminar also introduced participants to various bread, bun and pizza styles.

“The objective of this seminar was for participants to get a better understanding of which U.S. wheat varieties are best suited in milling flour for their respective national breads and baguettes,” explained USW Program and Marketing Specialist Domenique Opperman. “The group was very engaged and eager to learn more about the various U.S. wheat classes. Technical seminars like this that feature a strong ‘firsthand’ component tend to be the most effective way to highlight the advantages of U.S. wheat classes. We plan to continue this activity utilizing RAPP funding over the next five years.”

 

 

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USW Crop Quality Seminars: Team Effort by U.S. Wheat Industry Benefits Customers Around the World

Two Dozen Countries

Seven teams presented highlights of the 2024 U.S. wheat crop in two dozen countries as part of the annual series of USW Crop Quality Seminars that began in October and wrapped up earlier this month.

Once again, success was the result of teamwork.

Each crop quality team is carefully selected by USW’s regional offices. Teams include cereal scientists, market analysts, state commission staff, USW staff and producers. Each region has its own goals and builds a team of experts to help convey data from the annual Crop Quality Report with customers.

Pictured is the USW North Asia Crop Quality Team, which presented on the 2024 U.S. wheat crop during seminars conducted in Korea, Taiwan, China and Japan.

Pictured is the USW North Asia Crop Quality Team, which presented on the 2024 U.S. wheat crop during seminars conducted in Korea, Taiwan, China and Japan.

Hamilton Participates in First Seminar

USW Chairman Clark Hamilton, who this year was participating in his first Crop Quality Seminar. Hamilton was a member of the team that presented in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and China.

“What I saw at each stop were perfect examples of the hard work USW staff undertakes in each market, and I was quite impressed with professionalism and dedication,” said Hamilton. “For a long time, I have heard about the seminars and the impact they have. Having been part of it. I now understand.”

Customers Appreciate Effort, Information

USW Vice President of Programs Erica Oakley said this year’s round of seminars were well-received.

Baking consultant Brian Stouts presents on soft red winter (SRW) wheat during one of the 2024 Crop Quality Seminars conducted by USW's Mexico City Office.

Baking consultant Brian Stouts presents on soft red winter (SRW) wheat during one of the 2024 Crop Quality Seminars conducted by USW’s Mexico City Office.

“Customers around the world value these seminars and they appreciate hearing from wheat industry experts,” said Oakley. “These experts include representatives from our state wheat associations, wheat farmers, cereal scientists, and others. We had great news to share in 2024 and there was positive feedback to what we presented at our seminars.”

USW colleagues put a lot of work into planning the annual seminars, Oakley noted, adding that USW state commission members and partners also play an important role. Below are some notes from a few of the 2024 seminars.

More than 170 Attend Mexico City Office’s Seminars

USW’s Mexico City Office shared 2024 Crop Quality information in-person and virtually with 170 participants. Attendees represented mills from Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, St. Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela. Expert presenters included grain industry consultant Patrick McCluskey, Brian Strouts of B2B Bakery Consulting, and Roy Loepp, of Grainovations, LLC.

Meanwhile, USW’s South America Office put together a team that presented in Colombia, Chile, Peru and Ecuador. The team included Aaron Harries, Vice President of Research and Operations for the Kansas Wheat Commission and Brian Sorenson, Executive Director of the Minnesota Wheat Research and Promotion Council. Also on the team were Senay Simsek, Department Head and Professor at Purdue University and Britany Marchant, Executive Director of the Idaho Wheat Commission. Kansas’ Mike McClellan took part to share the perspective of a U.S. wheat farmer.

Europe and Asia Offices Attract Millers and Bakers

Washington Grain Commission CEO Casey Chumrau provides U.S. wheat customers with some insight as part of the USW Crop Quality Team that presented in South Asia.

Washington Grain Commission CEO Casey Chumrau provides U.S. wheat customers with some insight as part of the USW Crop Quality Team that presented in South Asia.

USW’s Rotterdam Office conducted seminars in Spain, Portugal, the United Kingdom and Italy. Wheat industry expert Jeff McPike joined USW Regional Vice President Ian Flagg and Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford in presenting important information during five seminars.

South Africa Hosts for Only Second Time

USW Cape Town hosted a full team of speakers for its Crop Quality Seminar – only the second time one has been conducted in the market. Along with Oakley, speakers included Nebraska Wheat Board Executive Director Royce Schaneman. Dr. Simsek and consultant Mike Krueger also joined. Erica Olson, Market Development and Research Manager of the North Dakota Wheat Commission, rounded out the team.

Asian Customers Eager to Learn About Crop

In South Asia, the Crop Quality team conducted seminars in the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore. Joining USW staff were Kansas Wheat Commission CEO Justin Gilpin. Washington Grain Commission CEO Casey Chumrau and Dr. Shahidul Islam of North Dakota State University also presented.

More than 100 professionals in South Korea attended the Crop Quality Seminar conducted in Seoul. USW South Korea Country Director Channy Bae helped host the seminar. Speakers included Hamilton and USW Vice President Steve Wirsching. Others on the team were Montana Wheat and Barley Committee Executive Director Kent Kupfner and Dr. Jayne Bock of the Wheat Marketing Center. Wheat industry consultant Brian Walker and Wiley Wang of Columbia Grain also presented.

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November Precipitation Rapidly Improves U.S. Winter Wheat Condition

Wheat farm families across the United States are sharpening their pencils to figure out how to deal with the on-going challenges of high input costs and low crop prices. Fortunately, 2025 winter wheat crop conditions do not create another concern for many of them following a remarkable turnaround in November.

Writing in Progressive Farmer Dec. 3, meteorologist Bryce Anderson said a boost of rain and snow in November “has given the crop a buffer and then some in anticipation of the post-dormancy development and production phases when spring 2025 rolls around.”

Record Improvement

Anderson shared USDA’s winter wheat “condition index” that suggests a record 35-point improvement from late October to late November (see chart below). Similarly, Kansas wheat rated good to excellent increased by 15 percentage points between Nov. 3 and Nov. 24. That is the largest increase since at least 1987 said Douglas Bounds, Kansas state crop statistician, in the Progressive Farmer article.

USDA U.S. Winter Wheat Condition Index showing large improvement in November 2024.

November precipitation dramatically improved U.S. winter wheat conditions. USDA’s winter wheat condition index rose from 213 to 248 faster than in any other year as least since 2000. The indexis calculated by multiplying the percentage number for excellent by 4; good, by 3; fair, by 2; and poor, by 1. No points are given for a crop rating of very poor. Source: USDA and Progressive Farmer.

Hard red winter (HRW) and hard white (HW) seeded areas in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, and southwestern Nebraska saw rainfall that far exceeded average levels for November. The same cannot be said for winter wheat in the rest of Nebraska, Wyoming, and South Dakota. Soft red winter wheat conditions in southern Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio that supply the center Gulf export tributary remain good. And snow and rain in November helped improve winter soft white conditions in the Pacific Northwest. Overall, the month saw a reduction from 57% to 29% of winter wheat production in an area experiencing drought (below).

Perspective

Keeping the improvement in perspective is the fact that pre-dormancy and early spring conditions are not highly correlated to final yields. Growing conditions as winter wheat moves toward maturity ultimately make the crop. U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford noted this and other factors ahead for the 2025/26 U.S. wheat crop in the November issue of Wheat Letter.

“Every year there’s some climate extremes as you go through the winter season to watch for,” said Kansas Wheat CEO Justin Gilpin in a Dec. 5 World Grain article. “We look at this fall’s precipitation as having gotten us over the first obstacle, and it has put us in a position that if we can get those timely rains that will be needed in the spring, the prospects and yield potential look encouraging.”

 

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A Look Ahead: What We Know about the 2025/26 Crop

Although the 2024 harvest season has recently concluded in the Northern Hemisphere, winter crop planting and decision-making for the 2025 planting season are already shaping market expectations. As discussed in a Nov. 5 “Market Summary” report to U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) directors dry conditions and other adverse weather have already created concerns around winter wheat planting. Likewise, the media and markets continue to follow weather closely. With the current market situation in mind, the following provides an overview of available information and current projections for U.S. wheat production in 2025/26.

Baseline Planted Area Forecasts

The USDA Agricultural Projections to 2034, released on Nov. 7, provided the first glimpse at the 2025/26 crop area. These estimates come early in the season as a baseline to build on as more information becomes available. The projections put 2025/26 U.S. wheat acres at 46.0 million acres, about even with last year. Planting conditions have been dry throughout the Southern Plains and producer prices remain low. The combined impact of low prices and less ideal conditions does not incentivize acreage expansion; however, low prices for corn and soybeans have also decreased the likelihood of profit driven acreage expansion. As a result, the USDA projections suggest farmers would plant a total of 223 million acres of wheat, corn, and soybeans, which is 900,000 acres less than last year and 600,000 acres below the five-year average.

First forecast for 2025/26

USDA forecasts total wheat, corn, and soybeans planted area at 223 million acres, a 900,000 acre decrease from last year and 600,000 below the five-year average. The projections put 2025/26 wheat acres at 46.0 million acres, about even with last year. Meanwhile, corn area increased by 1.3 million to 92.0 million acres and soybean area decreased by 2.1 million to 85.0 million acres. Source: USDA NASS Data; USDA Agricultural Projections to 2034.

Conditions to Date

On Oct. 28, USDA released its first winter wheat crop conditions report, rating 38% of the crop in good or excellent condition, the second lowest rating in records dating back to 1986, driven by a hot and dry planting season. Although this rating appears alarming, it is important to note that early season conditions do not correlate highly with final yields (see chart below). Moreover, recent showers in the U.S. Southern Plains are already helping improve winter wheat conditions. From Oct. 27 to Nov. 9, moisture was registered across the Plains from Texas to North Dakota and from Colorado into the Midwest. In the last 14 days, growing areas in the major HRW producing state of Kansas, received anywhere from 2 to 8 inches (5 to 20 cm) of rain.

Recent rains in the U.S. Southern Plains will boost crop conditions, promoting emergence and root establishment before dormancy. The Plains from Texas to North Dakota and from Colorado into the Midwest received rain from Oct. 27 to Nov. 9. Source: USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin.

Recent rains in the U.S. Southern Plains will boost crop conditions, promoting emergence and root establishment before dormancy. The Plains from Texas to North Dakota and from Colorado into the Midwest received rain from Oct. 27 to Nov. 9. Source: USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin.

Just days after the soaking rains, the Nov. 12 USDA crop conditions report put 44% of the crop in the good to excellent categories, up from 41% last week, but slightly below 47% last year.

Early season conditions do not strongly correlate with final yields. Since 1987, U.S. winter wheat has shown an upward yield trend, regardless of the pre-dormancy crop condition rating. Source: USDA.

Early season conditions do not strongly correlate with final yields. Since 1987, U.S. winter wheat has shown a steady upward yield trend, regardless of the pre-dormancy crop condition rating.

Despite the recent forecasts and data, it is far too early to make definitive judgements about the 2025 crop. With a long growing season ahead, early conditions do not correlate highly with yields, especially if timely rains continue throughout the fall and spring. Likewise, spring wheat planting is months away and many farmers are still contemplating their spring planting decisions.

Stay tuned for updates throughout the growing season, and as always, your local USW representative is here to help with market information, updates, and trade service.

By USW Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford.

 

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