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Speaking of Wheat

As president … I talked to experienced producers facing the realities of this downturn in the ag economy, and they feared they would not be able to secure operating credit in 2025 without some form of economic assistance. This legislation provides farmers with a bridge heading into next year. However … enacting a robust, long-term farm bill remains a top priority.” – Keeff Felty, President of the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG), in a statement about the introduction of economic assistance for farmers as part of a year-end legislative package.

Happy Holidays from U.S. Wheat Associates!

Your friends at U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) want to extend our heartfelt gratitude and best wishes to each of you in this holiday season. This is a time for reflection, celebration, and looking forward to new beginnings. Thank you for being an integral part of our journey. We wish you and your families a wonderful holiday season and hope that 2025 brings you joy, good health, and prosperity.

War and Wheat

Australian author Dennis Voznesenski has written a new book titled “War and Wheat:  Navigating Markets During Global Conflict,” explaining about how developments in the first two world wars impacted global wheat trade, input availability, production, and the ability to maintain adequate reserves. For more about the book and its content, visit Sosland Publishing to read Arvin Donely’s review.

Good News About Grain Foods and Cardiovascular Disease

The Grain Foods Foundation recently reported on a new study published Trends in Cardiovascular Medicine showing consuming high intakes of refined grain foods does not increase one’s risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary heart disease, heart attack, heart failure, or stroke. The results of the meta-analyses suggest that refined grains do not contribute to the higher CVD risk associated with unhealthy Western dietary patterns. Dr. Glenn Gaesser, a professor in the College of Health Solutions at Arizona State University, and a contributor to the Wheat Foods Council, authored the new study.

Do Svidaniya, Wheat Hectares?

Reuters on Dec. 11 reported that Russian farmers, faced with crop losses this year and low global prices, say they will sow less wheat and switch to more profitable crops. Such decisions will have direct implications for global markets, as Russia is the world’s top exporter of wheat. Russian analysts cited leaked data from the state weather agency for November that showed that at least 37% of winter crops, mostly wheat, are in poor condition due to a lack of moisture in the ground, saying this is the worst rating recorded to date. Read more here.

Thank You to Jay O’Neil

Long-time transportation expert Jay O’Neil has announced that while he will continue consulting on freight and commodity markets, he will cease publication of his weekly “Transportation and Export” report. “January 2025 will mark my 52nd year in the Grain business. Yes, I started way back during the Great Russian Grain Robbery,” Jay said. “I greatly appreciate all my report subscribers and readers and thank you for your years of interest and trust.” Thank you, Jay, from your USW friends! Here is a link to Jay’s comprehensive look at the commodity freight market in 2021.

Congratulations to WSU Wheat Breeder

USW recently honored Dr. Arron Carter as the O.A. Vogel Endowed Chair of Wheat Breeding and Genetics at Washington State University (WSU). USW Vice President and West Coast Office Director Steve Wirsching said Dr. Carter “is a once-in-a-generation wheat breeder bringing new technology and methods coupled with persistence to his work.” Wirsching noted that in 2018, Dr. Carter participated in a USW Wheat Quality Improvement Team (WQIT) visiting wheat buyers in Mexico, Guatemala, Costa Rica, and Peru to learn about the end-use quality factors that Latin American buyers value.

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.

 

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In recent months, wheat markets have stabilized, contrasting the unprecedented volatility following war, drought, and economic uncertainty that has defined markets over the last few years. After dipping to price levels not seen since 2020 earlier this year, world FOB values have recovered slightly, clustering near $250/MT.

We have previously looked at long-term trends in world wheat markets, analyzed price movements, and highlighted key opportunities for U.S. wheat in this forum. However, as the market stabilizes and import prices become more competitive for wheat customers, one key segment of the value chain has not reaped the benefits.

In today’s analysis, we will examine current price trends from the U.S. farmer perspective, considering factors that affect their profitability and planting decisions — decisions crucial for their families’ well-being and for a hungry world.

Mounting Macroeconomic Pressure

Mounting macroeconomic pressures in the U.S. have impacted businesses industry-wide, forcing large multinational agribusinesses like Cargill and John Deere to implement layoffs. Persistent inflation diminishes domestic purchasing power across the supply chain, while a strong U.S. dollar exerts downward pressure on commodity prices. Concurrently, as the U.S. Federal Reserve attempted to control inflation, rising interest rates increased both the frequency and cost of borrowing.

As economic conditions deteriorate, a recent study by Rabobank indicated that, while many farms are projected to remain financially stable through 2024, farm financial health has been declining since 2021. This trend is reflected in key indicators such as liquidity, profitability, and solvency. Supporting their findings, the USDA’s 2024 Farm Sector Income Forecast, released on Dec. 3, estimated that working capital, a common measure of liquidity, is expected to decrease 9.1% from 2023. Although, solvency measures such as debt-to-asset ratios are expected to improve slightly, overall farm sector debt is expected to increase 4.5% to a record $542.5 billion. As farm profitability metrics decline, loan volumes rise. According to Rabobank, in the first quarter of 2024, loan volumes increased by 14%, marking the sharpest uptick since the 1980s, while the USDA income forecast sees interest expenses increasing 4% from last year.

Given increased debt and a weakening financial position, farmers generally do not change crop production decisions directly; however, a continued trend could suggest a coming agricultural industry recession, potentially altering the current size and makeup of farms moving forward.

Line chart showing the relationship between high costs and low prices for U.S. crop production.

Looking at farm specific inputs, price trends lag as the output prices fall, which continues to erode profitability for the farmer. Prices for operating expenses are still elevated compared to pre-war levels, remaining “sticky” even as commodity prices drop. Source: USDA NASS.

The Stickiness Factor

Looking at farm specific inputs, input prices lag behind falling output prices, eroding farmers’ profitability. Operating expenses for fertilizer, seed, chemicals, and fuel have decreased slightly in 2024 but remain elevated compared to pre-war levels, staying “sticky” even as commodity prices drop.

USDA estimates that fertilizer expenses in 2023 were 11% above pre-war levels. Crop protection products and fuel expenses are 8% and 11.3% higher respectively than pre-war figures. Seed costs are the “stickiest,” remaining 21% above pre-war levels. Meanwhile, other expenses, including labor, borrowing costs, and property taxes, have increased from last year.

These sticky costs have led farmers to adjust expenditure on some inputs such as machinery and fertilizer. However, not all inputs can be cut equally. Seed and crop protection products have more “inelastic” demand, meaning that volume tends to not fluctuate with price. These price discrepancies cut directly into the producer’s margin.

Furthermore, farmers must make planting and input purchasing decisions months before harvest, creating price risk and a lag between input use and commodity prices.

Bar chart shows input costs for farms has declined slightly in 2024 compared to 2023.

USDA estimates that fertilizer expenses in 2023 were 11% above pre-war levels. Crop protection products and fuel expenses are 8% and 11.3% higher respectively than pre-war figures. Seed costs are the “stickiest,” remaining 21% above pre-war levels. Source: USDA 2024 Farm Sector Income Forecast.

The Profitability Conundrum

The total farm sector income is projected to decline more slowly in 2024 than in 2023, following record highs in 2022. The USDA estimates net farm income at $140.7 billion, down 4% from the previous year and 19% from the 2022 peak of $181.9 billion. By commodity, farm income from grains and oilseeds trends lower compared to producers in animal production or specialty crops.

Further, the recent decrease in farm income is twofold. Although increased U.S. farm output in 2024 boosts income, the larger volume was insufficient to offset the impact of lower commodity prices.

Combined bar charts showing USDA's estimate of net farm income for several sectors; only livestock, dairy, and specialty crops income has increased since 2020.

USDA put net farm income at $140.7 billion, down 4% from the previous year and down 19% from the peak of $181.9 billion in 2022. Moreover, the declines are not uniform. Net farm income from grains and oilseeds trended lower compared to livestock and dairy production and specialty crops. Source: USDA 2024 Farm Sector Income Forecast.

In another period of lower commodity prices, “sticky” input costs, and a weak macroeconomic environment, producers’ margins continue to be squeezed, creating a nationwide profitability conundrum. The results are not clear but specifically, income shortfall of U.S. wheat production relative to other, more profitable crops has been a factor in the well-documented decline in wheat planted area.

As we were working on this cost-price challenge, a tentative agreement in the U.S. Congress on economic assistance and disaster relief for growers across the country was forged. Political divisions now appear to have scuttled that agreement leaving more uncertainty. Such support would have been welcome not only to farmers, but also to their customers who value and rely on them for high-quality products.

Amidst the uncertainty, farmers will continue doing what they have always done: persevere whatever comes.

 

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Top Photo: In November, Master Baker Didier Rosada conducted a USW baking seminar for milling companies in Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Gambia, and Senegal. The seminar was part of USW’s work to promote greater use of U.S. hard red spring (HRS) and hard red winter (HRW) wheats in flour blends. 

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Bakery Technologist David Oh is credited with helping a group of South Korean bakers make an important connection earlier this year. The effort serves as a perfect example of how USW market development activities – short courses, technical workshops, and trade teams – promoted U.S. wheat in overseas markets in 2024.

Over the past 12 months, USW sponsored a dozen short courses hosted by the Wheat Marketing Center (WMC), the Northern Crops Institute (NCI) and the IGP Institute (IGP). USW also hosted eight trade teams made up of international wheat buyers on visits to the U.S. and participated in USDA agricultural trade missions around the world.

Each activity had a common goal: to connect U.S. wheat to customers who value quality and reliability.

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Bakery Technologist David Oh with the Korean Bakery Product Development Team on the Thomas Dierickx farm in Oregon.

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Bakery Technologist David Oh with the Korean Bakery Product Development Team on the Thomas Dierickx farm in Oregon.

Farmers Are Key

Back in April, Oh led a team of professionals through a Bakery Product Development Course at the WMC in Portland. The seminar focused on a handful of products that allowed the Korean team to see how U.S. wheat quality helps bakers create better end products. A visit to the Thomas Dierickx farm to meet U.S. wheat farmers and learn about their production practices was a significant event to showcase the reliability of the U.S. wheat crop.

“All the technical baking work we did in the lab at the Wheat Marketing Center was very important and very educational,” Oh said. “But introducing the bakers to the farmers and showing them how U.S. wheat is grown and the care the farmers take to produce the crop had a big impact on the team.”

USDA Funding is Vital

The Market Access Program (MAP) and Foreign Market Development (FMD) program anchor USW’s activities each year. The Agricultural Trade Promotion Program (ATP) is winding down. But the new FAS Regional Agricultural Promotion Program (RAPP) is now allowing USW to maintain a higher level of trade and technical service for customers.

“These kinds of activities really help us put a spotlight on the quality and value of U.S. wheat, and serve as the bread and butter of what we do, so to speak,” said USW Chairman Clark Hamilton. Clark, an Idaho wheat farmer, was involved in several 2024 activities. He was part of USDA’s first-ever U.S. agribusiness trade mission to Luanda, the capital of Angola. There, he teamed with Chad Weigand, USW’s Regional Director for Sub-Saharan Africa, to meet with millers and bakers and analyze consumer trends.

“Wherever I’ve been in the world meeting with millers and bakers, one thing has been clear: The U.S. Wheat Associates staff does a tremendous job of building and maintaining relationships within the global markets, and that is very important,” said Hamilton. “We are in a very competitive business in a very competitive world, so having those relationships is incredibly valuable.”

A small sampling of the many USW activities in 2024

South America

Educational meetings, firsthand workshops and on-site production support were part of USW’s successful effort to convince one of Colombia’s largest cake, cookie, and cracker manufacturers to make its very first purchase of U.S. wheat. The company makes an iconic rectangular, chocolate-covered cake snack, but has only ever used flour additives and Canadian spring wheat flour to make that snack as well as cookies, crackers, and other products for more than 40 years. In February 2024, a company executive wrote USW to say: “The seminars … have given us tools to strengthen our negotiation and supply strategies,” the executive wrote. “During 2023, we began the approvals and purchases … a historic milestone for [us] and U.S. wheat. The commercial relationship that we want to continue strengthening as strategic partners in the following years.”

Tawain

USW Taipei worked with Chia Fha Flour Mill to hold a U.S. wheat flour and bakery products briefing session October 7. An estimated 30 bakers, distributors, ingredient suppliers, and baking instructors took part. At the event, USW offered a broad look at positive U.S. wheat characteristics. Chi Fha’s R&D head then introduced two new flour products made with 100% U.S. wheat that are more suitable for pan bread and hearth bread with higher moisture and longer shelf life.

Mexico and Latin America

USW Vice Chairman Clark Hamilton, USDA Deputy Secretary Xochitl Torres Small and USW Regional Director for Sub-Saharan Africa Chad Weigand pause for a photo in Luanda, Angola, during a U.S. agribusiness trade mission in late February.

USW Vice Chairman Clark Hamilton, USDA Deputy Secretary Xochitl Torres Small and USW Regional Director for Sub-Saharan Africa Chad Weigand pause for a photo in Luanda, Angola, during a U.S. agribusiness trade mission in late February.

In August, USW/Mexico City Assistant Regional Director Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann traveled to Panama City, Panama, and San Pedro Sula, Honduras, to a procurement seminar in each location. The seminars targeted a cross-section of mill staff from each of the participating mills. Included were representatives from production, purchasing, quality control and executive teams. Bryant-Erdmann shared USW’s “Getting the Wheat You Want” presentation and did a review of class and quality specification recommendations. Mexico remains U.S. wheat’s top importer.

Africa

USW wroked to promote greater use of U.S. hard red spring (HRS) and hard red winter (HRW) wheats in flour blends for African bakers. Focusing on baguettes, fanti bread, biscuits and other products, USW’s Cape Town Office conducted a baking seminar at the Baking and Pastry Training Institute (IFMBP) in Casablanca. Master Baker Didier Rosada conducted the November seminar for 11 participants from milling companies. Those companies are based in Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Gambia, and Senegal. The four-day seminar highlighted use of HRS blended with local wheat flour for French baguettes. The seminar also introduced participants to various bread, bun and pizza styles.

“The objective of this seminar was for participants to get a better understanding of which U.S. wheat varieties are best suited in milling flour for their respective national breads and baguettes,” explained USW Program and Marketing Specialist Domenique Opperman. “The group was very engaged and eager to learn more about the various U.S. wheat classes. Technical seminars like this that feature a strong ‘firsthand’ component tend to be the most effective way to highlight the advantages of U.S. wheat classes. We plan to continue this activity utilizing RAPP funding over the next five years.”

 

 

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Two Dozen Countries

Seven teams presented highlights of the 2024 U.S. wheat crop in two dozen countries as part of the annual series of USW Crop Quality Seminars that began in October and wrapped up earlier this month.

Once again, success was the result of teamwork.

Each crop quality team is carefully selected by USW’s regional offices. Teams include cereal scientists, market analysts, state commission staff, USW staff and producers. Each region has its own goals and builds a team of experts to help convey data from the annual Crop Quality Report with customers.

Pictured is the USW North Asia Crop Quality Team, which presented on the 2024 U.S. wheat crop during seminars conducted in Korea, Taiwan, China and Japan.

Pictured is the USW North Asia Crop Quality Team, which presented on the 2024 U.S. wheat crop during seminars conducted in Korea, Taiwan, China and Japan.

Hamilton Participates in First Seminar

USW Chairman Clark Hamilton, who this year was participating in his first Crop Quality Seminar. Hamilton was a member of the team that presented in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and China.

“What I saw at each stop were perfect examples of the hard work USW staff undertakes in each market, and I was quite impressed with professionalism and dedication,” said Hamilton. “For a long time, I have heard about the seminars and the impact they have. Having been part of it. I now understand.”

Customers Appreciate Effort, Information

USW Vice President of Programs Erica Oakley said this year’s round of seminars were well-received.

Baking consultant Brian Stouts presents on soft red winter (SRW) wheat during one of the 2024 Crop Quality Seminars conducted by USW's Mexico City Office.

Baking consultant Brian Stouts presents on soft red winter (SRW) wheat during one of the 2024 Crop Quality Seminars conducted by USW’s Mexico City Office.

“Customers around the world value these seminars and they appreciate hearing from wheat industry experts,” said Oakley. “These experts include representatives from our state wheat associations, wheat farmers, cereal scientists, and others. We had great news to share in 2024 and there was positive feedback to what we presented at our seminars.”

USW colleagues put a lot of work into planning the annual seminars, Oakley noted, adding that USW state commission members and partners also play an important role. Below are some notes from a few of the 2024 seminars.

More than 170 Attend Mexico City Office’s Seminars

USW’s Mexico City Office shared 2024 Crop Quality information in-person and virtually with 170 participants. Attendees represented mills from Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, St. Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela. Expert presenters included grain industry consultant Patrick McCluskey, Brian Strouts of B2B Bakery Consulting, and Roy Loepp, of Grainovations, LLC.

Meanwhile, USW’s South America Office put together a team that presented in Colombia, Chile, Peru and Ecuador. The team included Aaron Harries, Vice President of Research and Operations for the Kansas Wheat Commission and Brian Sorenson, Executive Director of the Minnesota Wheat Research and Promotion Council. Also on the team were Senay Simsek, Department Head and Professor at Purdue University and Britany Marchant, Executive Director of the Idaho Wheat Commission. Kansas’ Mike McClellan took part to share the perspective of a U.S. wheat farmer.

Europe and Asia Offices Attract Millers and Bakers

Washington Grain Commission CEO Casey Chumrau provides U.S. wheat customers with some insight as part of the USW Crop Quality Team that presented in South Asia.

Washington Grain Commission CEO Casey Chumrau provides U.S. wheat customers with some insight as part of the USW Crop Quality Team that presented in South Asia.

USW’s Rotterdam Office conducted seminars in Spain, Portugal, the United Kingdom and Italy. Wheat industry expert Jeff McPike joined USW Regional Vice President Ian Flagg and Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford in presenting important information during five seminars.

South Africa Hosts for Only Second Time

USW Cape Town hosted a full team of speakers for its Crop Quality Seminar – only the second time one has been conducted in the market. Along with Oakley, speakers included Nebraska Wheat Board Executive Director Royce Schaneman. Dr. Simsek and consultant Mike Krueger also joined. Erica Olson, Market Development and Research Manager of the North Dakota Wheat Commission, rounded out the team.

Asian Customers Eager to Learn About Crop

In South Asia, the Crop Quality team conducted seminars in the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore. Joining USW staff were Kansas Wheat Commission CEO Justin Gilpin. Washington Grain Commission CEO Casey Chumrau and Dr. Shahidul Islam of North Dakota State University also presented.

More than 100 professionals in South Korea attended the Crop Quality Seminar conducted in Seoul. USW South Korea Country Director Channy Bae helped host the seminar. Speakers included Hamilton and USW Vice President Steve Wirsching. Others on the team were Montana Wheat and Barley Committee Executive Director Kent Kupfner and Dr. Jayne Bock of the Wheat Marketing Center. Wheat industry consultant Brian Walker and Wiley Wang of Columbia Grain also presented.

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Wheat farm families across the United States are sharpening their pencils to figure out how to deal with the on-going challenges of high input costs and low crop prices. Fortunately, 2025 winter wheat crop conditions do not create another concern for many of them following a remarkable turnaround in November.

Writing in Progressive Farmer Dec. 3, meteorologist Bryce Anderson said a boost of rain and snow in November “has given the crop a buffer and then some in anticipation of the post-dormancy development and production phases when spring 2025 rolls around.”

Record Improvement

Anderson shared USDA’s winter wheat “condition index” that suggests a record 35-point improvement from late October to late November (see chart below). Similarly, Kansas wheat rated good to excellent increased by 15 percentage points between Nov. 3 and Nov. 24. That is the largest increase since at least 1987 said Douglas Bounds, Kansas state crop statistician, in the Progressive Farmer article.

USDA U.S. Winter Wheat Condition Index showing large improvement in November 2024.

November precipitation dramatically improved U.S. winter wheat conditions. USDA’s winter wheat condition index rose from 213 to 248 faster than in any other year as least since 2000. The indexis calculated by multiplying the percentage number for excellent by 4; good, by 3; fair, by 2; and poor, by 1. No points are given for a crop rating of very poor. Source: USDA and Progressive Farmer.

Hard red winter (HRW) and hard white (HW) seeded areas in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, and southwestern Nebraska saw rainfall that far exceeded average levels for November. The same cannot be said for winter wheat in the rest of Nebraska, Wyoming, and South Dakota. Soft red winter wheat conditions in southern Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio that supply the center Gulf export tributary remain good. And snow and rain in November helped improve winter soft white conditions in the Pacific Northwest. Overall, the month saw a reduction from 57% to 29% of winter wheat production in an area experiencing drought (below).

Perspective

Keeping the improvement in perspective is the fact that pre-dormancy and early spring conditions are not highly correlated to final yields. Growing conditions as winter wheat moves toward maturity ultimately make the crop. U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford noted this and other factors ahead for the 2025/26 U.S. wheat crop in the November issue of Wheat Letter.

“Every year there’s some climate extremes as you go through the winter season to watch for,” said Kansas Wheat CEO Justin Gilpin in a Dec. 5 World Grain article. “We look at this fall’s precipitation as having gotten us over the first obstacle, and it has put us in a position that if we can get those timely rains that will be needed in the spring, the prospects and yield potential look encouraging.”

 

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Although the 2024 harvest season has recently concluded in the Northern Hemisphere, winter crop planting and decision-making for the 2025 planting season are already shaping market expectations. As discussed in a Nov. 5 “Market Summary” report to U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) directors dry conditions and other adverse weather have already created concerns around winter wheat planting. Likewise, the media and markets continue to follow weather closely. With the current market situation in mind, the following provides an overview of available information and current projections for U.S. wheat production in 2025/26.

Baseline Planted Area Forecasts

The USDA Agricultural Projections to 2034, released on Nov. 7, provided the first glimpse at the 2025/26 crop area. These estimates come early in the season as a baseline to build on as more information becomes available. The projections put 2025/26 U.S. wheat acres at 46.0 million acres, about even with last year. Planting conditions have been dry throughout the Southern Plains and producer prices remain low. The combined impact of low prices and less ideal conditions does not incentivize acreage expansion; however, low prices for corn and soybeans have also decreased the likelihood of profit driven acreage expansion. As a result, the USDA projections suggest farmers would plant a total of 223 million acres of wheat, corn, and soybeans, which is 900,000 acres less than last year and 600,000 acres below the five-year average.

First forecast for 2025/26

USDA forecasts total wheat, corn, and soybeans planted area at 223 million acres, a 900,000 acre decrease from last year and 600,000 below the five-year average. The projections put 2025/26 wheat acres at 46.0 million acres, about even with last year. Meanwhile, corn area increased by 1.3 million to 92.0 million acres and soybean area decreased by 2.1 million to 85.0 million acres. Source: USDA NASS Data; USDA Agricultural Projections to 2034.

Conditions to Date

On Oct. 28, USDA released its first winter wheat crop conditions report, rating 38% of the crop in good or excellent condition, the second lowest rating in records dating back to 1986, driven by a hot and dry planting season. Although this rating appears alarming, it is important to note that early season conditions do not correlate highly with final yields (see chart below). Moreover, recent showers in the U.S. Southern Plains are already helping improve winter wheat conditions. From Oct. 27 to Nov. 9, moisture was registered across the Plains from Texas to North Dakota and from Colorado into the Midwest. In the last 14 days, growing areas in the major HRW producing state of Kansas, received anywhere from 2 to 8 inches (5 to 20 cm) of rain.

Recent rains in the U.S. Southern Plains will boost crop conditions, promoting emergence and root establishment before dormancy. The Plains from Texas to North Dakota and from Colorado into the Midwest received rain from Oct. 27 to Nov. 9. Source: USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin.

Recent rains in the U.S. Southern Plains will boost crop conditions, promoting emergence and root establishment before dormancy. The Plains from Texas to North Dakota and from Colorado into the Midwest received rain from Oct. 27 to Nov. 9. Source: USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin.

Just days after the soaking rains, the Nov. 12 USDA crop conditions report put 44% of the crop in the good to excellent categories, up from 41% last week, but slightly below 47% last year.

Early season conditions do not strongly correlate with final yields. Since 1987, U.S. winter wheat has shown an upward yield trend, regardless of the pre-dormancy crop condition rating. Source: USDA.

Early season conditions do not strongly correlate with final yields. Since 1987, U.S. winter wheat has shown a steady upward yield trend, regardless of the pre-dormancy crop condition rating.

Despite the recent forecasts and data, it is far too early to make definitive judgements about the 2025 crop. With a long growing season ahead, early conditions do not correlate highly with yields, especially if timely rains continue throughout the fall and spring. Likewise, spring wheat planting is months away and many farmers are still contemplating their spring planting decisions.

Stay tuned for updates throughout the growing season, and as always, your local USW representative is here to help with market information, updates, and trade service.

By USW Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford.

 

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U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) recently connected and reconnected with customers of U.S. wheat at the International Association of Operative Millers Southeast Asia Chapter Meeting, a regular gathering of flour millers and technicians held this year in Surabaya, Indonesia. Joe Sowers, USW Regional Vice President for South and Southeast Asia, presented during the event, emphasizing the quality and value of the six classes of U.S. wheat. Sowers and USW technicians Ivan Goh and Sam Yap engaged wheat buyers and users in markets across Southeast Asia throughout the meeting.

“This event allows us to tell our story to the people that are actually making the flour in these important markets to help them understand the benefits of U.S. wheat,” said Sowers. “It gives us a chance to meet face to face with the millers in the region, make new contacts, and connect with older ones. So it’s a nice chance to solidify relationships across the region.”

Hear more from Sowers and see more from the IAOM meeting in this short video . . .

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News and Information from Around the World Wheat Industry

Speaking of Wheat

It’s a million-dollar rain, and a lot of farmers could not be happier to see this. This could not be more perfect right now, to be able to give the wheat a drink for winter, to last it to spring, number two, give it a little bit of healthy growth before we completely shut down for winter.” — Kansas Wheat Farmer John Jenkinson. Read more here.

Federal Grant Supports Export Elevator Rail Project

A TEMCO rail expansion project at Washington’s Port of Kalama has secured a $26.3 million grant from the Federal Rail Administration’s CRISI Program. The facility exports grains, oilseeds, and wheat to Asia-Pacific markets. The project will add track to improve efficiency by up to 30%, allow for continuous ship loading without repositioning railcars, and improved rail infrastructure to expedite export processes for Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Norther Plains farmers. Read more here.

U.S. Ag Official Addresses Global Challenges at Kansas Event

In remarks at the Kansas Governor’s Summit on Agricultural Growth, USDA Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Alexis Taylor discussed how trade can further strengthen both Kansas agriculture and the nation. She also said Kansas, with its wheat, beef, and grain production, stands to benefit from USDA’s Regional Agricultural Promotion Program (RAPP) that is investing $1.2 billion to promote U.S. ag products in existing and emerging markets.

Alexis Taylor, USDA Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, right, joined a panel discussion at a Kansas Governor’s Summit on Agricultural Growth.

Wheat Genome Research Will Enhance Breeding Outcomes

The work of an international team of researchers to detail the genome of a wild wheat relative was published in the journal “Nature.” In August. Michigan State University noted that by studying the genetic makeup of Tausch’s goatgrass and other wild wheat relatives, breeders and geneticists can use the knowledge to improve modern bread wheat. An MSU professor on the team said the research will help identify individual genetic traits that may even be important for climate resiliency or other characteristics that are critical for modern wheat production. Read more here.

USDA Reports on Climate Smart Agriculture Projects

USDA has invested $3.03 billion dollars in 135 pilot projects nationwide to connect customers to farmers, ranchers, and private landowners implementing “climate smart” production practices on working lands “to build soil health, sequester carbon, and enhance productivity.” The agency recently reported on the number and diversity of projects incentivized by the Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities. Read the report here (pdf link). Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities Report Summary – June 2024 Data

Subscribe to USW Reports

USW publishes various reports and content available to subscribe to, including a bi-weekly newsletter highlighting recent Wheat Letter blog posts and wheat industry news, the weekly Price Report, and the weekly Harvest Report (available May to October). Subscribe here.

Follow USW Online

Visit our Facebook page for the latest updates, photos, and discussions of what is going on in the world of wheat. Also, find breaking news on Twitter, video stories on Vimeo and YouTube, and more on LinkedIn.

 

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Like U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) and other wheat industry organizations, the Wheat Foods Council (WFC) is funded in part directly by wheat farmers. And, like WFC, many of our milling and baking customers around the world are also supporting public campaigns to increase wheat food consumption.

USW is sharing excerpts here from a recent interview with WFC President Tim O’Connor in an episode of “Wheat’s on Your Mind,” a podcast sponsored by Kansas Wheat. Julia Debes wrote the original article for Kansas Wheat.

“We work to increase demand for the 50% of wheat that’s produced in the U.S. that’s not exported,” O’Connor said. “It stays here in this marketplace, and we have to deal with the challenges and the opportunities that the U.S. marketplace presents us.”

The WFC is an industry-wide partnership dedicated to increasing domestic wheat food consumption through nutrition information, research, education and promotional programs. The Council has a unique membership, comprised of the entire wheat value chain, including state wheat commissions supported by wheat checkoff dollars.

Above, while USW and the Wheat Foods Council focus on different customers, they have a common goal: boosting the bottom line of U.S. farmers. Both are considered valuable partners and collaborators in the U.S. wheat industry, and several state wheat associations belong to both organizations. 

“Here we have everybody from the growers, the state wheat commissions, the millers, the bakers, the ingredient suppliers, the life science companies. Everyone in the value chain can participate in the Wheat Foods Council,” O’Connor said. “Because the world looks different to a wheat grower than it does to a miller or a baker, when we can blend all of those points of view together to understand the challenges each sees, we can find a solution that’s a win-win for everyone.”

O’Connor and podcast host Aaron Harries, Kansas Wheat Vice President of Research & Operations, discussed how WFC currently has two major priorities for their work – tackling misperceptions about enriched wheat foods and leveraging influencers in the fitness and culinary sectors to reshape public perception.

Health Benefits of Enriched Flour

Enriched wheat flour is fortified with essential vitamins and minerals. This enrichment has provided major health benefits to consumers and represents most wheat foods products produced in the United States. Still, enriched wheat flour is largely misunderstood or misrepresented in nutritional information online.

“You can find thousands of articles on wonderful things about whole wheat,” O’Connor said. “But once you start looking for information on enriched wheat flour, it starts to get pretty negative very fast.”

Addressing this misperception, along with the larger challenge of combatting low-carb fad diets, requires a very strategic approach. But the WFC is trying to turn those messages around by working with groups that influence consumers: chefs and fitness professionals. Targeting these influencers offers more credibility than a seeming echo chamber of the wheat industry positively promoting their products. Plus, it is also more financially efficient because the organization can work with influencers who reach millions of people.

The first group that the Wheat Foods Council targets is [300,000] fitness professionals, including nutritionists and others who educate consumers about exercise, nutrition, weight loss, weight management and other related topics … who collectively reach several million consumers every day. The organization started by conducting surveys to better understand what information these groups gave consumers, finding that they promoted fad diets and misinformation.

Helping Chefs Incorporate Wheat Foods in Menus

In addition to fitness professionals, the Wheat Foods Council also decided to target the chefs who set the menus at major restaurant chains or work at food product companies. This includes chefs that set the menus at “industry institutional theaters” like college campuses, corporate campuses, sports venues and other places where people go every day and eat what is on the menu.

The approach to reaching these influential groups is similar … providing them with information on the nutritional value of wheat foods and how this ingredient can help meet consumer wants.

For fitness professionals, WFC conducts webinars that provide continuing educational credits, pulling in experts like Nancy Clark, an Olympian turned sports nutritionist, and Dr. Brett Carver, a wheat breeder at Oklahoma State University. For chefs and other decision-makers, the Council brings these experts to custom educational programs at places like the Culinary Institute of America. For both audiences, the Council also brings its expertise to industry conferences and provides educational material influencers can use on their social media channels.

Image from the Wheat Foods Council website of chefs learning new ways to include wheat foods in their menus.

“The food service industry feeds millions of people every day. We want them to see wheat foods as something that they want to consume, something that they value rather than buying into many of the trends that have vilified wheat foods,” said WFC President Tim O’Connor.

“We’ve had tremendous success in getting high-volume restaurant chains and high-volume food manufacturers coming to our events and going home with a whole different perspective on how to use wheat foods,” O’Connor said. “They feed millions of people every day. We want them to see wheat foods as something that they want to consume, something that they value rather than buying into many of the trends that have vilified wheat foods.”

This work requires a strategic approach and complex conversations, but at the end of the day, the Wheat Foods Council is providing simple and straightforward answers to consumer questions like: Is this good for me and my family? Do I want to serve this and eat this and feed it to my kids, or is this something I want to stay away from?

WFC President Tim O’Connor.

Each piece of education is a well-executed play from the Wheat Foods Council’s strategic playbook – driving demand for U.S. wheat and bringing a positive image of wheat back to the American dinner table. And it would not be possible without the support of the entire wheat industry, down to the individual wheat producer who pays into their state checkoff each harvest.

“This work is important to growers; it builds a more vibrant, dynamic marketplace for the wheat that they grow,” O’Connor said. “They need to know that the money they’re putting into these checkoff programs is being utilized to advance the work of the Wheat Foods Council along with the other organizations that work on international marketing and policy work on behalf of the industry.”

Listen to the full conversation with Tim O’Connor and all other episodes of the “Wheat’s on Your Mind” podcast at www.wheatsonyourmind.com.

 

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Grown primarily in the North Central region and shipped via the Pacific, Gulf and Great Lakes ports, hard red spring (HRS) wheat is second in production among U.S. wheat classes. USDA has pegged 2024 production at 13.7 million metric tons or 8% more than in 2023. 

Planting started slightly ahead of average due to milder spring weather and adequate moisture except in some western areas. Most of the eastern area had a humid, wet growing season with higher disease pressure and higher yields, while western areas were hot and dry, with minimal disease pressure and reduced yields. 

Harvest In the Gulf and Lakes exportable production area started in early August with a mix of dry conditions in the east compared rain and cooler temperatures in western North Dakota and eastern Montana before drying out. It stayed dry in western areas and hard red spring harvest was complete by mid-September.

Hard red spring wheat kernels

The aristocrat of wheat when it comes to “designer” wheat foods like bagels, artisan hearth breads, pizza crust and other strong dough applications, U.S. hard red spring (HRS) wheat is also a valued improver in flour blends. It has high protein of 12.0% to 15.0% (12% mb), hard endosperm, red bran, strong gluten and high water absorption.

PNW Exportable Crop Overview

The 2024 western region hard red spring wheat crop offers high grades, sound kernels, and high average protein content. Functional performance shows strong dough properties with slightly lower absorption. Baking properties are good with average bake absorption, but slightly lower loaf volumes. Due to the late season hot, dry conditions, this crop includes a wider range of yields, protein levels and kernel size. Overall, this is a highly functional crop.

Gulf/Lakes Exportable Crop Overview

The 2024 eastern HRS crop offers a high grade profile and many positive attributes. With some record yields, protein is lower than average. Overall average DON levels and lower falling numbers are not significant. Dough properties and absorption are lower with better performance in higher protein segments. Overall, this crop offers good performance attributes. 

Following are initial details about the hard red spring crop that U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) will share in the 2024 U.S. Wheat Crop Quality Report and Seminars. As always, USW recommends careful consideration of the new crop quality attributes to receive the highest value possible.

               2024 HRS PNW-Exportable Highlights                    2024 Gulf/Lakes Exportable Highlights
Grade: Average is U.S. No. 1 Dark Northern Spring (DNS), with 86% of samples grading U.S. No. 1. Grade: Average is U.S. No. 1 Northern Spring (NS), with 97% of samples grading U.S. No. 1.
Test Weight: Similar to last year but slightly lower than the 5-year average. Test weight: Similar to last year and the 5-year average.
Damaged kernels: Near zero, although shrunken and broken levels are slightly higher than 2023. Damaged kernels: Higher than last year and the 5-year average due to elevated disease pressure in central and eastern areas.
Vitreous kernel (DHV): Improved over last year and the 5-year average. Vitreous kernel (DHV): Improved over 2023, although still lower than typical due to harvest time rains and lower crop protein.
Wheat protein: Higher than last year, reflecting expanding dryness during growing season. Wheat protein: Averages trended lower in eastern areas due to higher yields and seasonal moisture.
DON: Slightly higher this year, with isolated pockets of Fusarium head blight pressure raising the average. DON: Higher this year, reflecting higher Fusarium head blight pressure.
1000 kernel weight (TKW): Lower than last year due to late-season heat stress but matches the 5-year average. 1000 kernel weight (TKW): Lower than last year but higher than the 5-year average.
Wheat falling number: Notably higher than a year ago, with 95% of the crop higher than 350 seconds. Wheat Falling Number: Lower than last year but similar to the 5-year average with nearly 80% of the crop over 350 seconds. Variability due to untimely rain in eastern areas.
Laboratory Mill extraction: Higher than last year and the 5-year average. Laboratory Mill extraction: Higher than last year and the 5-year average.
Flour ash: Similar to last year and slightly below the 5-year average. Flour ash: Similar to last year and lower than the 5-year average.
Amylograph: Notably higher than last year and the 5-year average, reflecting drier growing conditions and sound kernels. Amylograph: Notably lower than last year and the 5-year average, reflecting untimely rains during harvest in some parts of the eastern region.
Dough properties: Stronger characteristics compared to last year and the 5-year average. Dough properties: Weaker characteristics compared to last year and the 5-year average.
Farinograph absorption: Slightly lower than in recent years. Western area production shows strong dough characteristics. Farinograph absorption: Lower than in recent years, likely because of lower average protein levels. Eastern areas show weaker dough characteristics.
Alveograph: Stronger dough with a higher P/L ratio and higher W-value. Alveograph: Weaker dough with lower P/L ratio and lower W-value of 373.
Extensograph: Similar strength but greater extensibility, relative to last year and the 5-year average. Extensograph: Weaker dough properties with greater extensibility, relative to last year and the 5-year average.
Baking evaluations: Slightly lower loaf volumes compared to last year and the 5-year average. Dough handling properties scored slightly higher than in recent years, with good bread scores. Baking evaluations: Slightly lower loaf volumes compared to last year and the 5-year average. Dough handling properties scored slightly higher than in recent years, with good bread scores.